I fully agree with this: the engagement envelope will have to be modified (=stretched).
On a side note, have been doing the rounds with some folks, in the countries immediately bordering Russia, and the Russophobia is really blinding the views of where the threat is going (and what it is driven by
E.g, I asserted that
a main threat is that because lacking/negative population growth is having a severe impact on the age cohorts becoming eligible for military service (and it is only the army that still has a reliance on conscripts), it is the professonalisation of Russian formations. especially the elite ones, and therefore the ability to 'go' from a standing start
- so the driver, and how they have responded in shaping their force structure, see
https://www.statista.com/statistics/100 ... -scenario/
AND one 'poor sole' - bless him and the site where they seem to agree - responded that in 2016 Rosstat said that deaths and births were finally in balance
... AND THAT it would be 'all growth from there'
1. Believe Rosstat
- and they do not project, anyway [ which is the point for defence analysis]
2. Project yourself, when there are expert sources available (and they also spell out the assumptions, should one not believe that they/ some of them are not valid)
Well: sometimes hatred (based on some nations' historical experiences) can blind oneself to any objective analysis
- add to this the other commonly (across many nations) occurring form of blindness
= namely the blind faith in tech, and because of the cost of such tech, believing that pruning the numbers to pay for it, will make the spearhead sharper
EVEN the Neanderthals knew
that a spearhead, without the spear to follow, was absolutely useless.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)