UK Politics - General News & Discussion

[SKB]

UK proposes to ban the sale of all high sugar and caffeine energy drinks to under 18's.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45342682

[ArmChairCivvy]

The press release is not clear as to how the £8 mln total was narrowed down to £ 2.9 mln for criminal investigation. Nevertheless, it will be interesting who/ which country emerges from the shadows behind the public faces of the campaigning:
"Bob Posner, Electoral Commission Director of Political Finance and Regulation & Legal Counsel, said:

“We have reasonable grounds to suspect money given to Better for the Country came from impermissible sources and that Mr Banks and Ms Bilney, the responsible person for Leave.EU, knowingly concealed the true circumstances under which this money was provided. This is significant because at least £2.9m of this money was used to fund referendum spending and donations during the regulated period of the EU referendum.

“Our investigation has unveiled evidence that suggests criminal offences have been committed which fall beyond the remit of the Commission. This is why we have handed our evidence to the NCA to allow them to investigate and take any appropriate law enforcement action. This is now a criminal investigation."

[ArmChairCivvy]

Hearsay has it that David Cameron has written his memoirs many times over... to fit the narrative, which unfortunately has turned out to be rater fluid.

Now someone decided to lend a helping hand: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/h ... ffee_House

[SKB]

Interesting maps.

A pity that S**th*mpt*n voted to leave...

[ArmChairCivvy]

Another account of how we ended up with divisive identity politics (and Momentum, without being mentioned, gets explained "on the side")
https://news.sky.com/story/danny-dyer-d ... e-11557431
- language in it is not for the fainthearted

[jedibeeftrix]

"[Politicians] are floundering around. They have been given this thing called f****** Brexit because of one man."

Entertaining as our Danny is (who is he?), he rather misses the point that we got brexit because for over a decade polls consistently showed two things:
1. 40-50 percent of the electorate in favour of leaving
2. 50-60 percent of the electorate in favour of having a vote on membership

Continuing to ignore the matter was only undermining mainstream politics.
People who tell you the referendum was only a party management strategy by cameron have only a tenuous interest in democracy.

[ArmChairCivvy]

A picture caption from SkyNews
"The PM says she is "determined" to see Brexit through, as Michel Barnier says this is a "decisive" moment in the process."
and the other "exchange" between the two was: "the end of 2022 is OK; No! End of May (in the same year would be OK)"
- fighting the General Election - then - with the slogan" remember? how I brought us back from the cliff edge at the end of 2018? Well, I have shown that I can do it - Do trust me to do it again"

[Halidon]

"[Politicians] are floundering around. They have been given this thing called f****** Brexit because of one man."

Entertaining as our Danny is (who is he?), he rather misses the point that we got brexit because for over a decade polls consistently showed two things:
1. 40-50 percent of the electorate in favour of leaving
2. 50-60 percent of the electorate in favour of having a vote on membership

Continuing to ignore the matter was only undermining mainstream politics.
People who tell you the referendum was only a party management strategy by cameron have only a tenuous interest in democracy.

A lot of coast for Leave Land to protect considering Remain kept the lion's share of the Navy and shipyards.

[ArmChairCivvy]

How to sell this dog's dinner?
Well, there's free beer "tomorrow".
- No, I have not turned to BoJo as the Messiah

We will have, after the week end, a 20-pager about the future.
Mrs May is constantly referring to it.
It better be "good" then? That's the last serve in this round, before it is for the Parliament to decide (as to whether the dog's dinner, nothing... or ordering outside such a menu, is the best option).

[Poiuytrewq]

We will have, after the week end, a 20-pager about the future.

Will it be worth the paper it's written on?

[ArmChairCivvy]

We will have, after the week end, a 20-pager about the future.

Will it be worth the paper it's written on?

Err, seen the MDP ?

[ArmChairCivvy]

From a "Waugh" post on HuffPost:
" today a number of Brexiteers including Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith have been holding talks in No. 10 along with David Trimble about a proposed solution to the Brexit deal that might prevent a leadership contest. [...] the European Research Group, which has been leading the pressure on the Prime Minister over the past few days, believed that there were enough letters ready for there to be a leadership contest this week[...]

She is currently giving the public impression that she isn’t at all threatened, yet today’s meeting suggests otherwise. At some point, it will become clear who is really chasing who in this Tory game of cat and mouse.

as in
" Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal
19 Nov 2018, 14:34
Herding cats is starting to come into play [on the EU side of things,] but only because here the party in power seems to need the leader minding (their & the DUP) mice at a crossroads

[ArmChairCivvy]

Not that the SNP has been - at least from reading their manifestos & the supporting "analysis" - the height of political responsibility. But today, in Westminster, the words were well chosen:

"The leader of the SNP in Westminster, Ian Blackford, said beneath the "theatre" of the past few months was the "cold, hard truth" that this deal was "a moment of self-harm in our history".
[...]

"And it is the height of irresponsibility of any government to bring forward a proposition that is going to make its people poorer."

One down; four to go

[SKB]

Lloyd Russell-Moyle MP (Lab) represents the Brighton Kemptown seat

[Pseudo]

Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that the Chairman of the 1922 committee has asked to see the Prime Minister after Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow. If true, it's possible that the threshold for a confidence vote in May's leadership of the Conservative Party has been reached.

[dmereifield]

Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that the Chairman of the 1922 committee has asked to see the Prime Minister after Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow. If true, it's possible that the threshold for a confidence vote in May's leadership of the Conservative Party has been reached.

We've been led up this path before....hope it's true this time. Brexit views aside, TM is a lousy PM. Not sure that they're going to get the 158 votes needed though, and given prior form I suspect she'd stay even if a sizeable chunk (100+) voted against her

[Pseudo]

We've been led up this path before....hope it's true this time. Brexit views aside, TM is a lousy PM. Not sure that they're going to get the 158 votes needed though, and given prior form I suspect she'd stay even if a sizeable chunk (100+) voted against her

I doubt that May would lose a confidence motion, but there probably needs to be around a hundred votes against her for blood to be in the water. If that happens then it could be open season for a lot of Tories on both sides.

One thing that I like about the Conservative Party is that they're vicious to wounded leaders.

To your point of May being a lousy PM, I think that had May become Prime Minister without Brexit a lot of anti-immigration Brexit supporters would have liked her because she'd likely have implemented existing EU restrictions on the freedom of movement that previous governments haven't, which a lot of Brexit supporters would have lauded.

[Pseudo]

Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that the Chairman of the 1922 committee has asked to see the Prime Minister after Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow. If true, it's possible that the threshold for a confidence vote in May's leadership of the Conservative Party has been reached.

...And it's on.

[ArmChairCivvy]

One thing that I like about the Conservative Party is that they're vicious to wounded leaders.

To your point of May being a lousy PM

Two observations (might be obvious now, but not when TM chose her way 'to follow'):
- Corby was thought to be an impossible candidate for N:o 10
- now he just needs to be holding fire while the Conservatives tear their party to threads. This helps to hide the fact that he is clueless as how to work out a solution, should there ever be that chance given (I am not trying to dismiss the quality of his key adviser on Brexit matters).

[Pseudo]

Two observations (might be obvious now, but not when TM chose her way 'to follow'):
- Corby was thought to be an impossible candidate for N:o 10
- now he just needs to be holding fire while the Conservatives tear their party to threads. This helps to hide the fact that he is clueless as how to work out a solution, should there ever be that chance given (I am not trying to dismiss the quality of his key adviser on Brexit matters).

Well, that's the thing, isn't it? He's been worse than useless at holding the government's feet to the fire over Brexit so far. I think that if the Conservative Party is going to tear itself apart it'll have to do so on its own.

I don't know about anyone else, but this confidence vote could turn out to be my favourite constitutional crisis of the week so far.

[ArmChairCivvy]

favourite constitutional crisis

Is it a crisis of that nature? We have seen abuse of process... that sets the scene for such a crisis.

In this case rules and process are being followed. In my comment I talked about threads: they will be intact(?) and you can weave a new pattern. If you want the "into shreds" versions, here's one from Vince Cable:
"
@vincecable

The self-indulgent #ToryParty leadership challenge is about more than choice of leader. Political logic demands a split into a @UKIP style populist anti-EU party and another of the sensible centrists working with others."

[Pseudo]

favourite constitutional crisis

Is it a crisis of that nature? We have seen abuse of process... that sets the scene for such a crisis.

It's a fun turn of phrase, I wouldn't think too much on it. That said, the confidence vote is a direct consequence of the ongoing constitutional crisis that is Brexit.

In this case rules and process are being followed. In my comment I talked about threads: they will be intact(?) and you can weave a new pattern. If you want the "into shreds" versions, here's one from Vince Cable:
"
@vincecable

The self-indulgent #ToryParty leadership challenge is about more than choice of leader. Political logic demands a split into a @UKIP style populist anti-EU party and another of the sensible centrists working with others."

In the (I think unlikely) event that May loses the confidence vote then if a pro-Remain or Hard-Brexit candidate were to win the subsequent leadership contest I would expect enough resignings of the whip for the government to lose its majority and possibly suffer a no confidence vote itself. However, the timetable of that could be challenging. A Conservative leadership election for a Brexit-hardliner or Remainer to win would have to go to a membership ballot. That means the results likely won't be known until late January, for argument's sake let's say the 24th January. From there in the event of an immediate vote of no confidence in the government there's a fourteen day period for a government to be formed, which takes us to 7th of February before an election is called. Then you've got a two-month election campaign which takes us beyond the 29th March.

[ArmChairCivvy]

This sort of thing

unlikely) event that May loses the confidence vote then if a pro-Remain or Hard-Brexit candidate were to win the subsequent leadership contest I would expect enough resignings of the whip for the government to lose its majority and possibly suffer a no confidence vote itself. However, the timetable of that could be challenging. A Conservative leadership election for a Brexit-hardliner or Remainer to win would have to go to a membership ballot. That means the results likely won't be known until late January,

is now by no means restricted to the run up to March 29th, and the table has been dressed nicely for Corbyn
- should the fixed parliament term not apply for any reason (e.g. for reasons sketched out above)
- and a GE declared
- then the (abt 10 candidate) Tory balloting process for a new leader would take all of the time, up to the election itself
- how would such an election be fought (divided, or not)?

[ArmChairCivvy]

No let up in trying to get "the third party" going:
"Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said: "It's clear that Jeremy Corbyn is using every subterfuge possible to avoid the responsibility"
but R4 put it more concisely: "parliamentary graffiti"

[SKB]

Theresa May's Government survives a No Confidence vote by 325 to 306 (Majority 19)


However, if DUP had withdrawn support, the result would have been 315 to 316 and government would have lost confidence by 1 vote..