Syrian Conflict

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benny14
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Syrian Conflict

Post by benny14 »

I want to see what your thoughts are on what is going on in Syria.

Syria has to be one of the most complicated and messy conflicts in modern history. We have the Syrian Government backed up by Russia and Iran fighting the FSA, who are backed up by Turkey, who are attacking the Kurds, who are backed up by the USA. And to top it off all are fighting ISIS, and Israel is waging its own mini-war against Iran inside Syria.

ISIS is essentially wiped out by now, they only have a few small pockets left. So I imagine they will soon go underground and continue conducting guerilla type warfare and conducting terrorist attacks in the West for many years to come.

The FSA that are not supported by Turkey will slowly but surely get wiped out by the Syrian Government, as they have been for the last year. The FSA supported by Turkey in the north who are currently attacking the Kurds will be a complicated situation, I cant see Turkey wanting to leave anytime soon and you can bet that the Syrian Government will eventually want to reclaim that territory, potentially sparking a direct fight between Turkey, a NATO member and a Russian backed force.

Then we have the Kurds, who have been used for the west, and more specifically the USA to fight against ISIS as a proxy. The USA now have military bases inside Kurdish territory and has dug itself in for many years to come, against the wishes of the Syrian Government. The US have been trying to shield the Kurds against Turkey by positioning troops along the border areas, but due to them talking about building a Kurdish border force and having no troops in the western region, Turkey has now launched a full scale attack on the region with the support of the FSA.

Personally, I think it is for the best that the Syrian Government wins the fight against the FSA, as they are a fun mix of moderate and extremist factions, some even linked to Al-Qaeda, we dont want another Taliban in Afghanistan or failed state Libya situation to deal with. I think the Kurds need to be given a break and Turkey needs to be slapped. The Turkey situation is pretty troubling, I dont see how it does not boil over in to a larger scale fight at some point.

There are some decent interactive maps that can show you the current situation. Just dont read the comments.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/
https://syriancivilwarmap.com/

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

WW3, but within one country?
- the positive view

A "Guernica" going on as we speak, as a prelude
- the negative view
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Frenchie
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by Frenchie »

The biggest risk is a confrontation between Hezbollah, so Iran and Israel, there would be the beginning of a world war, the US with Israel on one side and Russia with Iran on the other side, otherwise the confrontation between the Turks and the Kurds supported by the Americans will not give anything special I think.

benny14
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by benny14 »

Frenchie wrote:The biggest risk is a confrontation between Hezbollah, so Iran and Israel
Israel and Iran have been fighting each other through Hezbollah for a long time. Nothing new there. Israel will keep bombing Hezbollah and Iran will do nothing directly in return. Only thing I could see happening is Syria retaliating at some point for all the attacks in its territory, but only if they continue after the civil war has been dealt with. Russia would not get involved over Iran. Even then, I dont see it ever going past a Israel-Syria incident. The future Turkey situation is the main possible flashpoint that could draw multiple countries in.

Frenchie
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by Frenchie »

Hezbollah has emerged stronger from the conflict in Syria, Iran wants to control the Shia areas of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, it is a great danger, in my opinion.

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Cooper
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by Cooper »

Just a continuation of the same slaughter that's been going on for 1400yrs in the region...until they ditch their backwards medieval religion, nothing will change.

leave them to it. They'll either wise up or wipe each other out, either way I won't care TBH.

Frenchie
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by Frenchie »

What worries me is the reaction of Israel that is uncontrollable, with powerful armed forces capable of a disproportionate response.

benny14
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by benny14 »

Cooper wrote: They'll either wise up or wipe each other out, either way I won't care TBH.
We care, because fighting in the middle-east sends unstoppable waves of refugees at our borders which drains our finances and destroys our cultures.
Frenchie wrote:What worries me is the reaction of Israel that is uncontrollable, with powerful armed forces capable of a disproportionate response.
Yep. The whole situation is a shit show. There are many countries involved in Syria and many ways it could blow up.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Quite amazing: you don't need to sign on the dotted line first, before being prosecuted:

"Testimony from the refugees - in which they describe being shot at, bombed, and tortured - forms a substantial part of the evidence that has been submitted.

The first case was filed on Monday by the Guernica Centre for International Justice and the second was filed on Thursday by a team of British lawyers."
... and that is Assad, by the way.

Not the father, who killed 20 000 in Homs, alone.
But the son... a real amateur, but he has been learning the trade as he went along (through the civil war)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Frenchie wrote:Hezbollah has emerged stronger from the conflict in Syria, Iran wants to control the Shia areas of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, it is a great danger, in my opinion.
"Somebody" seems to be doing their work for them as it is easy now to see this scenario as possible:
- one possible consequence might be to chase the Kurds – in their battle with the Turks – over to the side of the Assad regime and its Iranian backers.(Kurd forces have already been allowed to transfer through the Assad controlled corridor between their own areas as and when the situation on the ground has demanded it)
-consequences for Israel?
1. it would remove the last barrier in northern Syria preventing a land bridge – a connected supply route – running from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon and ports on the Mediterranean Sea.
2. Hezbollah and Israel are fighting all the time, but who else might be be drawn into these actions, under the emerging circumstances?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

[quote=]one possible consequence might be to chase the Kurds – in their battle with the Turks – over to the side of the Assad regime and its Iranian backers.[/quote]
And indeed, an announcement (at least at the military level) has come out, to such effect.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Europe (UK included) seems to be clueless - as per usual - as to what to do about Turkey's actions. In the light of Erdogans consistently argumentative approach (to deflect from what he is doing inside Turkey) one might be surprised to read that economic interests have consistently steered the AKP and discouraged the party from pulling away from Europe. The EU is Turkey’s largest trading and investment partner.
- In 2016, 48 percent of Turkish exports went to EU members and 39 percent of imports came from the EU
- Additionally, the EU accounts for around three-quarters of Turkey’s FDI

So suspend the trade association agreement and impose a moratorium on direct investments? Whatever Trump directed the US Treasury to write up (but not activate) is neither here or there, due to the unpredictability
- whereas Europe's actions should have clear tripwires and conditions
- the "train" for any sort of intervention left the station half a decade ago
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Syrian Conflict

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

https://news.sky.com/story/major-rift-o ... s-11982550

In Syria no need to call the country's richest to a luxury hotel, and hang them upside down to see what comes out of the pockets
... in Syria it's a family affair
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Syrian Conflict

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