Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[Meriv9]

Interesting. I don't see how the Aeralis concept could be applicable to the LIFT part - it would surely need to be supersonic.

Maybe some kind spin out of GCAP using M346 as a base

You can guarantee the Italians are pushing very hard for a M346 derivative for GCAP Lift.

Why wouldn't they, they make truly excellent platforms.

Aeralis has real potential, if, (big if), it can get away from the starting blocks, theres great potential synergy with GCAP, re next generation 3d printing etc.

Other than the platform whats good about the M346 is the international flight school with an already affirmed syllabus.

The swedish just joined the group

https://en.aviation-report.com/italian- ... -in-italy/

Sweden thus joins a large group of countries that over the last few years have chosen Italy for flight training, convinced by the excellence of the Air Force’s training offer, both at the Galatina base and at the Decimomannu IFTS: Austria, Canada, Germany, Japan, Qatar, Singapore, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and Kuwait.

[Spitfire9]

WORLD DEFENSE SHOW 2024 — While the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is “very keen” on joining the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), localization remains a priority for any deal to be sealed, a key Saudi industrial official tells Breaking Defense.

“I think [joining] the program [GCAP] is important to Saudi Arabia and it’s managed by MoD. And we are part of that from the localization point of view. There is a serious discussion [as] Saudi Arabia is very keen on the sixth-generation fighters, and we are talking to the UK their partners and we are making good steps forward,” Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI), said in an interview at this week’s World Defense Show.

He added that there are some challenges “but I think we have options and we know what we require. As His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed said seven years ago, there will be no armament transaction without localization. To us, this is our motto … there’ll be no transaction without serious, decent and important localization in Saudi Arabia.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/sau ... -governor/

I ask the question out of ignorance: what would it be possible to localise in KSA? The intention was for KSA to build Typhoons but that never materialised, so KSA gained no experience in assembling fast jets. BAE did its bit and started preparing 'knock down kits' only to assemble the aircraft at Warton in the end because they were let down by the Saudis IIRC. Have things changed so that KSA can be relied on to actually do things they say they are going to do?

[Little J]

They’ll be falling over themselves to buy the Boeing T7 red hawk knowing them.

Do the French currently assign alpha jets to rafale sqns to do similar?

Pushing it as a SAAB though, we don't have to acknowledge the Yanks connection

[mrclark303]

WORLD DEFENSE SHOW 2024 — While the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is “very keen” on joining the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), localization remains a priority for any deal to be sealed, a key Saudi industrial official tells Breaking Defense.

“I think [joining] the program [GCAP] is important to Saudi Arabia and it’s managed by MoD. And we are part of that from the localization point of view. There is a serious discussion [as] Saudi Arabia is very keen on the sixth-generation fighters, and we are talking to the UK their partners and we are making good steps forward,” Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI), said in an interview at this week’s World Defense Show.

He added that there are some challenges “but I think we have options and we know what we require. As His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed said seven years ago, there will be no armament transaction without localization. To us, this is our motto … there’ll be no transaction without serious, decent and important localization in Saudi Arabia.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/sau ... -governor/

I ask the question out of ignorance: what would it be possible to localise in KSA? The intention was for KSA to build Typhoons but that never materialised, so KSA gained no experience in assembling fast jets. BAE did its bit and started preparing 'knock down kits' only to assemble the aircraft at Warton in the end because they were let down by the Saudis IIRC. Have things changed so that KSA can be relied on to actually do things they say they are going to do?

I think Saudi Arabia will end up being a tier 2 partner, they can certainly contribute by 3D printing sections of the airframe.

A typical Saudi type order of 48-72 aircraft would really help reduce costs across the board.

It's certainly an aircraft that Iran would greatly fear....

[SD67]

They’ll be falling over themselves to buy the Boeing T7 red hawk knowing them.

"Proven low cost off the shelf option" LOL

[mr.fred]

I think Saudi Arabia will end up being a tier 2 partner, they can certainly contribute by 3D printing sections of the airframe.

Why that particular combination of level of partner and manufacturing process?

[mrclark303]

I think Saudi Arabia will end up being a tier 2 partner, they can certainly contribute by 3D printing sections of the airframe.

Why that particular combination of level of partner and manufacturing process?

I think Saudi Arabia have missed the boat regarding partnership now, but will sign up as a lower tier partner.

While final assembly might not be on the cards, they can certainly manufacture components for the program....

[mr.fred]

I think Saudi Arabia have missed the boat regarding partnership now, but will sign up as a lower tier partner.

While final assembly might not be on the cards, they can certainly manufacture components for the program....

Ok, I get that, but why would a tier 2 partner 3d print things?
Why not machine parts? Or lay up composites?

[SD67]

I'dhave thought composites

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1966306/business-economy

[SW1]

Composites are the most complicated bit to get right consistently doubly so on aircraft with low observable characteristics. They will be being done at competent facilities with a close hold on the technology.

I doubt they will 3d print any primary structure.

[mrclark303]

I think Saudi Arabia have missed the boat regarding partnership now, but will sign up as a lower tier partner.

While final assembly might not be on the cards, they can certainly manufacture components for the program....

Ok, I get that, but why would a tier 2 partner 3d print things?
Why not machine parts? Or lay up composites?

I think the bulk off Tempest will be 3D printed using the latest equipment.

A good friend is involved with high tech engineering and the technology employed now is just Star Trek, 3D printing of structural parts is already a thing, BAE Systems will super size and highly automate the hole process.

[TheLoneRanger]

The Saudia's are looking to diversify and also see some of their defence procurements programmes being fed back into their local industry and economy.

They have the leverage, and the market is becoming more open with the Turkish Kaan, J-31's, Su-75's and the KF-21 programmes. So - i dont see Saudia Arabia buying into anything that does not meet their strategic goals. It is down to the UK and BAE and partners on how much they are willing to let Saudia Arabia get involved relative the investment Saudia Arabia can bring which will help lower the overall cost of the programme.

The days of gold plated Saudia Arabian procurement programmes are over. They will want, and will insist on something in return.

[Jensy]

Open call from the CEO of Airbus to merge GCAP with SCAF...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... presidency

Faury said: “We need to cooperate between European countries, including the UK, because we are in businesses where scale matters. The US has scale and they’ve gone for one fighter. We’ve gone for three different fighters.

“It’s quite clear that we need to find a way to pool our efforts together as Europeans to have one very powerful capability by type of weapon system. Does it make sense to not come together for security and defence with the level of insecurity that we see at the borders of Europe? No, I think there’s no choice.

Would love to see him convincing Dassault to give up their crown...

[SD67]

Who is this “we “ he’s referring to?

If he means Europe well most of it has gone for the F35

[Phil R]

Open call from the CEO of Airbus to merge GCAP with SCAF...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... presidency

Faury said: “We need to cooperate between European countries, including the UK, because we are in businesses where scale matters. The US has scale and they’ve gone for one fighter. We’ve gone for three different fighters.

“It’s quite clear that we need to find a way to pool our efforts together as Europeans to have one very powerful capability by type of weapon system. Does it make sense to not come together for security and defence with the level of insecurity that we see at the borders of Europe? No, I think there’s no choice.

Would love to see him convincing Dassault to give up their crown...

Oh sweet jesus no!

Please, for the love of god, keep the squabbling twosome, French and Germany out of GCAP!

An attempt to meld the two will utterly compromise the design, as the French will insist on something a third smaller for carrier compatibilities sake....

The Japanese, British ( to a lesser extent Italy) want a large heavy multi role platform, it appears it's going to be bigger than F22, there's simply no possible divergence in the programmes, without massive compromise.

For that reason alone, never mind the utter bloody nightmare that France are to deal with, no, no, no, no.......

I firmly believe that Spain will pull plug on SCAF and join the European F35 club in the next few years as block 4 is mastered and the unit price steadily drops.

SCAF will start to demand 'serious' financial input from next year and F35 will be extremely tempting for Spain as the bills mount.

[Jensy]

Oh sweet jesus no!

Please, for the love of god, keep the squabbling twosome, French and Germany out of GCAP!

An attempt to meld the two will utterly compromise the design, as the French will insist on something a third smaller for carrier compatibilities sake....

The Japanese, British ( to a lesser extent Italy) want a large heavy multi role platform, it appears it's going to be bigger than F22, there's simply no possible divergence in the programmes, without massive compromise.

For that reason alone, never mind the utter bloody nightmare that France are to deal with, no, no, no, no.......

I firmly believe that Spain will pull plug on SCAF and join the European F35 club in the next few years as block 4 is mastered and the unit price steadily drops.

SCAF will start to demand 'serious' financial input from next year and F35 will be extremely tempting for Spain as the bills mount.

I've been quietly interested in Spain's next moves for a while. Not least as I'm curious what it would take to make Juan Carlos operational with F-35B.

They have maintained a split US/Euro fighter fleet for a very long time. Would be a not insignificant diplomatic statement if they suddenly pick one over the other.

As to merging the programmes, I'd suggest the ideal window would be before GCAP becomes formalised, which is speculated to happen next year. With a general election and a US election, it could be a challenge to even make the case. Much less push successfully shift the agenda.

One wonders if a Guardian interview is an attempt to shift opinion in what could well be the next government, under a banner of 'European cooperation' that would be a much harder sell with the Tories in power. Either way, it's not exactly a vote of confidence in SCAF...

[Meriv9]

Bills can mount but we know this is investment and who looses this round probably won't make it to the 7th one.

All under the assumption the SCAF go nowhere, I could see Spain focusing on the naval sector if they win the T2 GP Frigate Australian program, and deciding going for the F-35.

But at the same time if I think about Leonardo Electronic expansion, the one after Hensoldt would be Indra that if we (ITA-UK with Leonardo )don't act will end up with Thales.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/03 ... -industry/

So bringing them inside with an industrial-figther deal could be beneficial IMHO

[inch]

Personally I'm thinking the next government if labour will definitely throw GCAP under the buss and try and hash a french plane , personally if I was BAE, I would turn around to the next government and say,we have a perfectly good plane and team up in gcap and if you want to throw it all under the bus ,go ahead but BAE are not going to take part in your we must be part of Europe cockup program again ,jog on find someone else to build if for you ,if stupid lefty politicians screw up a good program just to be on some we must be part of Europe again,let the politicians build it themselves,see what would happen if BAE said nah ,we sooner not bother then

[motiv]

Personally I'm thinking the next government if labour will definitely throw GCAP under the buss and try and hash a french plane , personally if I was BAE, I would turn around to the next government and say,we have a perfectly good plane and team up in gcap and if you want to throw it all under the bus ,go ahead but BAE are not going to take part in your we must be part of Europe cockup program again ,jog on find someone else to build if for you ,if stupid lefty politicians screw up a good program just to be on some we must be part of Europe again,let the politicians build it themselves,see what would happen if BAE said nah ,we sooner not bother then

There isn't a cat in hells chance of Labour of doing this, Tempest has/is being divided up already, so only tier two stuff would be available.

Also, if you notice the people asking for this are not the French now. They know they can't be lead on GCAP, they would be lucky to get a major part of it at this point.

GCAP is going ahead, the Unions are with it in the UK and they will dictate to Labour that they are far more happy with the current setup.

If Europe (Airbus) want to jump ship, they need to realise that they will be at best building what they buy from us, not leading the project.

[Jensy]

Also, I don't think BAE (BAe or BAC) has shown such backbone in its entire corporate existence. If they had, we might have avoided a number of ridiculous failed programmes and the billions of taxpayer quid they've pissed away on them.

Regardless, no one would want to mess up the four-way revolving door between Industry, Government, the Civil Service and the Armed Forces.....

As Motiv says above, even now Labour listens to the unions. Especially those with highly skilled/paid members.

[SD67]

Personally I'm thinking the next government if labour will definitely throw GCAP under the buss and try and hash a french plane , personally if I was BAE, I would turn around to the next government and say,we have a perfectly good plane and team up in gcap and if you want to throw it all under the bus ,go ahead but BAE are not going to take part in your we must be part of Europe cockup program again ,jog on find someone else to build if for you ,if stupid lefty politicians screw up a good program just to be on some we must be part of Europe again,let the politicians build it themselves,see what would happen if BAE said nah ,we sooner not bother then

There isn't a cat in hells chance of Labour of doing this, Tempest has/is being divided up already, so only tier two stuff would be available.

Also, if you notice the people asking for this are not the French now. They know they can't be lead on GCAP, they would be lucky to get a major part of it at this point.

GCAP is going ahead, the Unions are with it in the UK and they will dictate to Labour that they are far more happy with the current setup.

If Europe (Airbus) want to jump ship, they need to realise that they will be at best building what they buy from us, not leading the project.

Agreed! I've been watching UK Labor's policy on this, the unions are totally on board. There's not many engineering firms in the North of England taking on a thousand-odd apprentices right now. And deals have been signed. Not a chance in hell it gets reopened.

[Jensy]

They brought Bronk back to Parliament....

He seems to have taken an issue with Japan and their more exquisite capability requirements...

International Relations and Defence Committee: The Global Combat Air Programme

Video:
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/c ... eb11de014b

Transcript:
https://committees.parliament.uk/oralev ... 4441/html/

In fairness to the good professor. He makes 'some' good points:

Justin Bronk: For example, the Iranians shot down a roughly $230-million RQ-4 maritime Global Hawk—something that is the size of a 737 airliner and is incredibly expensive—in the Gulf, and the reaction from the US was fairly minimal. In other words, there is now plenty of established precedent that shooting down uncrewed things does not trigger the sort of crisis escalation, diplomatic response or military response that shooting down a crewed aircraft would have.

Again, it is interesting to look at Radar 2. The UK has managed to produce jointly with Italy a genuinely world-class e-scan radar—electronically scanned array radar. Typhoon is currently about 10 years behind Rafale having an e-scan radar installed, and we are installing them having spent all this money on developing this fantastic radar for air-to-ground and electronic warfare stuff. It will transform the capability of the aeroplane against high-end threats, but we can afford or are allocating so little money to actually installing them that we are installing 40 radar sets on 40 of the Typhoons out of the 107 that we are keeping. That means that, spreading the money out across the programme, you are looking at about £54 million to £55 million per radar; that is about two-thirds of the cost of a flyaway F-35A, which has a more capable radar as part of the package.

[tomuk]

In fairness to the good professor. He makes 'some' good points:

Justin Bronk: For example, the Iranians shot down a roughly $230-million RQ-4 maritime Global Hawk—something that is the size of a 737 airliner and is incredibly expensive—in the Gulf, and the reaction from the US was fairly minimal. In other words, there is now plenty of established precedent that shooting down uncrewed things does not trigger the sort of crisis escalation, diplomatic response or military response that shooting down a crewed aircraft would have.

But a Global Hawk is in no way comparable in size to a 737.

[SD67]

They brought Bronk back to Parliament....

He seems to have taken an issue with Japan and their more exquisite capability requirements...

International Relations and Defence Committee: The Global Combat Air Programme

Video:
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/c ... eb11de014b

Transcript:
https://committees.parliament.uk/oralev ... 4441/html/

In fairness to the good professor. He makes 'some' good points:

Justin Bronk: For example, the Iranians shot down a roughly $230-million RQ-4 maritime Global Hawk—something that is the size of a 737 airliner and is incredibly expensive—in the Gulf, and the reaction from the US was fairly minimal. In other words, there is now plenty of established precedent that shooting down uncrewed things does not trigger the sort of crisis escalation, diplomatic response or military response that shooting down a crewed aircraft would have.

Again, it is interesting to look at Radar 2. The UK has managed to produce jointly with Italy a genuinely world-class e-scan radar—electronically scanned array radar. Typhoon is currently about 10 years behind Rafale having an e-scan radar installed, and we are installing them having spent all this money on developing this fantastic radar for air-to-ground and electronic warfare stuff. It will transform the capability of the aeroplane against high-end threats, but we can afford or are allocating so little money to actually installing them that we are installing 40 radar sets on 40 of the Typhoons out of the 107 that we are keeping. That means that, spreading the money out across the programme, you are looking at about £54 million to £55 million per radar; that is about two-thirds of the cost of a flyaway F-35A, which has a more capable radar as part of the package.

He still sounds like a paid LM salesman to me. He knows, or should know, that F35A is not a sovereign capability, has a relatively small and dwindling industrial participation, and decade + long wait for integration of UK weapons. Typhoon developments cost too much because of the disjointed nature of the program - that's exactly what GCAP addresses.

Switzerland's deal for F35 was USD 6.58 billion for 40 so GBP 128 million each at current exchange rates.

[mrclark303]

Personally I'm thinking the next government if labour will definitely throw GCAP under the buss and try and hash a french plane , personally if I was BAE, I would turn around to the next government and say,we have a perfectly good plane and team up in gcap and if you want to throw it all under the bus ,go ahead but BAE are not going to take part in your we must be part of Europe cockup program again ,jog on find someone else to build if for you ,if stupid lefty politicians screw up a good program just to be on some we must be part of Europe again,let the politicians build it themselves,see what would happen if BAE said nah ,we sooner not bother then

There isn't a cat in hells chance of Labour of doing this, Tempest has/is being divided up already, so only tier two stuff would be available.

Also, if you notice the people asking for this are not the French now. They know they can't be lead on GCAP, they would be lucky to get a major part of it at this point.

GCAP is going ahead, the Unions are with it in the UK and they will dictate to Labour that they are far more happy with the current setup.

If Europe (Airbus) want to jump ship, they need to realise that they will be at best building what they buy from us, not leading the project.

I would agree, the GCAP project has now moved beyond the stage that it could be merged with its rival.

The requirements are simply too far apart, it's not the same as Thypoon / Rafael requirements, i.e two broadly similar aircraft, separated from a common starting point by the belligerent French.

GCAP is shaping up to be a far larger aircraft.

F35 represents the biggest danger, in my opinion GCAP will either proceed or be cancelled outright for an F35A order.