Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
seaspear
Senior Member
Posts: 1748
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 20:16
Australia

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by seaspear »

This article suggests a navilised Tempest this could mean cats and traps to be installed lol a stovl version lol or for export hello French and Indian friends
https://www.naval-technology.com/featur ... and-traps/

Timmymagic
Donator
Posts: 2294
Joined: 07 May 2015, 23:57
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Timmymagic »

No sources listed, but from a respected commentator.



User avatar
SKB
Senior Member
Posts: 7180
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 18:35
England

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SKB »

Pfft, no way, they can fcas off. :mrgreen:

Defiance
Donator
Posts: 736
Joined: 07 Oct 2015, 20:52
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Defiance »

He might want them to, but it doesn't politically fit. It's difficult to imagine the sequence of events that would force this to happen bar one of the efforts collapsing.

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2544
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by dmereifield »

Well if Italy was peeled off by Germany, France and Spain, then Tempest would effectively collapse. UK unlikely to go it alone and Sweden and Japan are only quasi project partners (Japan even less so). If Italy wants them to merge, it might therefore happen....though that would be bad for the UK (and Italy, I beleive)

SW1
Senior Member
Posts: 2674
Joined: 27 Aug 2018, 19:12
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

Would seem nonsensical not to cooperate on shared sub systems/senors particularly as a big element is around a cloud based net/ information distribution. If uk planes can’t talk to French planes and visa versa not gonna work very well. Like wise with armaments meteor being a good example. Crew escape systems another

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 115
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

Personal opinion, and I underline this, I'm an ignorant on the topic.

I think the big problem will be the attractiveness of a Naval FCAS. When Tempest and FCAS will be out Cavour will be 30+ years old. And a Naval FCAS will be surely superior to the F-35B.
The factor we should consider is:
-The new french CV, PANG that would enter in service around 2040
-https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighoope ... -sub-snub/
Thanks to AUKUS it is possible they will receive US tech making it even more attractive
-From a point of view of common defense, since we are talking of something that will be in service until when? 2070-80? and in such long term Scenario, will we be in a Bipolar world with 10+ US CVNs? Or there will be a need for multiple EU CV(FRA+ITA+GER)?

So Italy is in this conundrum that we have the same British Airforce timing but the same French naval timing.

Defiance
Donator
Posts: 736
Joined: 07 Oct 2015, 20:52
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Defiance »

Can you explain a bit please, because you go from Italian naval needs to expanding out to the wider EU enterprise.

For the former, is Italy likely to acquire catapult-equipped carriers? If the answer is no then the naval capability of Euro FCAS is a bit moot as they will never consider STOVL capability. Neither will the UK or, realistically, anybody outside of the US. F-35B has that market sown up and nobody wants to compete for it.

Alternatively in that future scenario you describe, nobody outside France is going to operate aircraft carriers as nobody else in that EU is that committed to overseas deployments. It feels odd that the 'attractiveness' of Euro FCAS in that regard would be the possibility of maybe deploying 10 jets on a French carrier for a EU mission. Especially considering how much workshare Italy would lose as a consequence.

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 115
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

Again my opinion.(and it is probably just bambling)

We adopted the Euro there is no turning back economically, we can go only further.

If correct in English you would write a "do or die" situation.

So from this point of view a common foreign policy, the push for unification is inevitable.

The navy, the MM, has gained quite the momentum. Ten years ago, if I'm right, things like a 10k+ destroyer, the Trieste, the Constellation class success would have been unimaginable.

And the cooperation looks like it is increasing. The EPC in which we are at the forefront, with SPA/GR/FRA/ITA plus Portugal and Denmark as "interested". The LSS with the French. The DDX that we are fielding is going to be the biggest in Europe and just few days ago a rumor of making it an OCCAR Design with the Spanish came out. https://www.themeditelegraph.com/it/shi ... 1.40943181

(this only on the naval side)

If the EU is pushing towards a common defense policy IMHO it is clear that we are aiming for the naval side.

Specially because we have Fincantieri, that has economies of scale thanks its 30bilion cruise ship backlog in the next ten years, but ridiculous small margins over those 30bln.

So yes I could see Italy fielding a Catobar in 20 years. Italy has been scraping the bottom for long long time, our productivity didn't improve in 30 years. I really hope that we are at a turning point, and we got a 30 years gap to regain.

What I mean is that for the EU to survive and thus allowing us Europeans to still have an international relevance (since we don't have your commonwealth for example) some of the conditions are:
-Italian economy renovation
-Change of attitude of the Germans, from applying Beggar thy neighbor policies, to the locomotive of the continent and that include a bigger military role (that scares me but there is no other option). So we could be not alone with the French.

If the Union is going to survive economically, we need more political unification, that means a common foreign policy (as much as possible). There is no other way, if this doesn't happen and the monetary/inflation status quo remains the same, it will push Italy(PIGS) out sooner or later.

Again, this is my bambling, it is all improbable, complicated and ultra risky, but when we adopted the Euro we started a domino that is forcing us towards this result.

TheLoneRanger
Member
Posts: 92
Joined: 01 Jul 2020, 19:15
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

If for whatever reason - the Tempest Project is terminated - then the UK will look to join forces with or buy off the shelf a variant of whatever the Americans are building. Of that I am quite certain.

Any EU led programme will not make meet any timelines, or cost projections and unit costs will be very high for that reason. Most of these EU countries are only interested in developing and owning the intellectual property and making money - they have no interest in building real military capability.

France may be trying to make Italy peel off the Tempest programme with its recent "strategic alignment" news with Italy as "revenge" for AUKUS, but i just cannot see the UK joining an EU led Defence procurement programme or one where France is in the lead - the disaster that was the Typhoon project still echos strongly....

FCAS to Tempest may well die - but the loser will most likely end up buying from the Americans ...

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 115
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

Oh don't worry they aren't even trying. A Naval FCAS is attractive to buy or to participate, or hoping that the two programs merge or find a magical balance but it wont ever remove the benefits and advantages of being in team Tempest.


SD67
Member
Posts: 329
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

The French lead FCAS basically hasn't started. Spending to date is in the 10s of millions. None of the participants have recent 5th gen experience and noone knows what the approach of the incoming German government is going to be.

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

Defiance wrote: 24 Nov 2021, 07:47 He might want them to, but it doesn't politically fit. It's difficult to imagine the sequence of events that would force this to happen bar one of the efforts collapsing.
Labour win in 2023, EU referendum by 2025. Merger then?

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

The Tempest program has no realistic shot without another major partner(Japan India) and hard orders for commitment to being their sixth gen aircraft.

Realistically it would struggle even with that addition. America can't afford more than one gen aircraft at a time, and Europe's gonna try and do two separate programs again?

Just being realistically financially here. It cost 50 billion to develop the F-35 after developing the F-22.

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 115
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

Because of technological leapfrog strategy from the US.

But if we use ready to use Tech without the need to surpass the chinese by two generations the cost and complexity goes down a lot.

motiv
Junior Member
Posts: 4
Joined: 05 Oct 2020, 17:24
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by motiv »

Isn't the F35 with Aircraft, whereas Tempest will just be one.

I suspect Tempest will be far cheaper that $50bn to develop, but it will need Italy on board or some overseas order.

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

Meriv9 wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 18:37 Because of technological leapfrog strategy from the US.

But if we use ready to use Tech without the need to surpass the chinese by two generations the cost and complexity goes down a lot.

Well gee, I hope combat capability is a consideration.

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

motiv wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 18:39 Isn't the F35 with Aircraft, whereas Tempest will just be one.

I suspect Tempest will be far cheaper that $50bn to develop, but it will need Italy on board or some overseas order.
Yeah, but F-35 was after the F-117A and F-22.

Sure probably cheaper, but there's also the raw power of money flood. Even if Italy committed 100% it wouldn't be enough.

Tempest will minimum cost 25-35 billion to develop. Probably more. Ignoring procurement.

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

How much cost/time do you think it would take France/Germany to build an aircraft similar to the F-35?

Tempest and FCAS is aiming for better I'd assume.

SW1
Senior Member
Posts: 2674
Joined: 27 Aug 2018, 19:12
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

Define what you mean by better?

Perhaps they are aiming for a product which is less susceptible to the whims of the US defence production act. Perhaps also looking at national industries they consider vital like propulsion, sensor, complex weapons and material science that cannot survive in the defence space if they are Frozen out of their domestic markets by US products.

Lord Jim
Senior Member
Posts: 6209
Joined: 10 Dec 2015, 02:15
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Lord Jim »

The problem(s) I see with both European programmes being combined is the requirement the French have to make the end product(s) carrier capable. Unless France bears the additional cost for this variant itself rather then sharing the cost with the other partners it will simply make the programme more expensive for everyone. At least they do have experience in developing both land and carrier capable variants of the same platform in the shape of the Rafale, which may keep the additional costs down.

Also if you read articles on both programmes the Franco/German/Spanish programme often states it is developing a fifth generation platform akin to the F-35, whilst the Anglo/Italian/Swedish/Japanese* programme is aiming to produce a sixth generation platform. This is surely going to cause confusion and conflict if the programmes merge. Admittedly the difference between the generation is more to do with the avionics and other sensors together with the related software, but would France and Germany be willing to pay the additional costs that this incurs.

I strongly feet the Franco/German/Spanish platform will be limited to service with these three nations as it will be in competition with the F-35 and that has a huge head start in the market and other nations are also developing aircraft with similar capabilities. TEMPEST n the other hand will be in competition with the next generation of platforms being developed in the US. This will put it in a good position for countries that want the latest generation platforms but either do not want to rely wholly on the US or for whom the US will not sell.

SD67
Member
Posts: 329
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Yes very “astute”

The partner nations have no JSFs. Two of them will never ever be allowed to buy JSFs. They thus need something vaguely stealthy as a JSF substitute.

I suspect the market for a JSF-and-a-bit with French weapons systems is rather limited. Maybe the French can flog a few to Argentina or Pakistan at special wink wink prices. But basically this is a Euro-job scheme and it hasn’t kinda started

sunstersun
Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 09 Aug 2017, 04:00
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by sunstersun »

SW1 wrote: 25 Nov 2021, 21:09 Define what you mean by better?

Perhaps they are aiming for a product which is less susceptible to the whims of the US defence production act. Perhaps also looking at national industries they consider vital like propulsion, sensor, complex weapons and material science that cannot survive in the defence space if they are Frozen out of their domestic markets by US products.
Can you shoot down the F-35 at a ratio better than 1.0.

This is a war plane after all. Yes it's all nice to have that stuff you listed, but it better not be 100 billion in false confidence.

Post Reply