Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[mrclark303]

I don't get your tempest funding paranoia you keep on talking about. show some evidence.

There is 2 billion confirmed until 2025 for phase one.

That's it, no further funding is 'confirmed'. The rest is vague and totally subject to change.

Defence is in the red, extra funding is now looking extremely unlikely.

The proposed 3% by 2030, was watered down to 2.5%, then a guarantee of 'at least ' 2% ( both parties in sync here), so it's no good thinking like a teenager with a bloody credit card who wants the latest I Phone!

Can the budget actually pay for a new expanded fleet of SSN's and a clean sheet fighter programme, plus it's Loyal wingman?

Can it??

Too many folk play fantasy fleets here, but don't look at the actual facts, i.e the country is in massive crippling debt!


Tempest is 'far' from certain guys, I'm crossing my fingers that the cash will be found, I suggest we all do!

[mrclark303]

I kind of agree. Although I also really don't want the Saudis to go Chinese or (horror of horror) French!

Though compared to India, once the KSA decide to do something they generally don't mess about, the wonders of being an absolute monarchy

Saudi money would make a huge difference to the finances, say a Sudi commitment for 48 and a 5/6 billion buy in.

[Jensy]

I kind of agree. Although I also really don't want the Saudis to go Chinese or (horror of horror) French!

Though compared to India, once the KSA decide to do something they generally don't mess about, the wonders of being an absolute monarchy

I can look past most of what people find objectionable about Saudi Arabia. One can't afford to be overly moral, sentimental or puritanical in the Gulf.

My concerns on KSA are twofold:

1) They bring absolutely nothing to the table in terms of technology, manufacturing or design expertise. Aside from money, they are a liability to the smooth running of the programme, risking delays cost overruns and even quality control or safety issues. Which could end up outweighing whatever money they come with.

2) Judging by their counter insurgency performance in the Yemeni civil war, something akin to the Iranian revolution happening to the House of Saud does not seem beyond the realms of possibility. The IRIAF F-14s were giving the Yanks a headache as recently as last decade.

As for the Indians. I think we're all on the same page about the nationalistic, corrupt and self-interested bedlam that is their military procurement. Not to mention the Russian angle.

Money is a remarkably fluid concept when it comes to government spending and national collaboration. As someone said previously, if three of the world's ten largest economies can't develop GCAP we have far bigger issues that the budgetary deficit.

We have a unique opportunity to shift the global combat aircraft marketplace by aligning with Japan. This could shape the industry for the second half of 21st century and create a sustainable and equitable ecosystem for upgrades and future projects.

[Warning: Rant Ahead]

...or alternatively we could screw it up, gift the entire market to the US and a few peripheral players and accept that the UK is in terminal decline as a country. Due, not to a negative economic certainty. but a national culture of pessimistic half remembered nostalgia laced with xenophobia and self-loathing.

[SD67]

Great rant !
IMHO
Point 1) I'm guessing no the MOD ask for cash up front as a buy in in return for TT and local assembly on the back end

Point 2) Rich people generally don't start revolutions

Funny thing - the Saudis now own 10% of Boeing. I wonder if that comes into play in some way - oh the irony

[Jensy]

Great rant !
IMHO
Point 1) I'm guessing no the MOD ask for cash up front as a buy in in return for TT and local assembly on the back end

Point 2) Rich people generally don't start revolutions

Funny thing - the Saudis now own 10% of Boeing. I wonder if that comes into play in some way - oh the irony

1) That's something I could potentially support. Particularly if an export Tempest has some of the secret squirrel bits toned down and we maintain the capability to cripple them should things turn south for MBS.

2) Though I know what you mean, over the last few centuries most revolutions are started by the affluent and educated middle class, students or otherwise, (See: France/Russia (all three of them)/Ottoman Empire/Vietnam/Egypt/Cuba/Chile/Argentina), but in Saudi Arabia it's the religious element that's probably the bigger risk, combined with an influx of insurgents from neighbouring states.

At the end of the day, I value Japanese partnership more than sacks full of Riyals stuffed into a Rolls Royce Cullinan.

[Jensy]

I kind of agree. Although I also really don't want the Saudis to go Chinese or (horror of horror) French!

Though compared to India, once the KSA decide to do something they generally don't mess about, the wonders of being an absolute monarchy

I can look past most of what people find objectionable about Saudi Arabia. One can't afford to be overly moral, sentimental or puritanical in the Gulf.

My concerns on KSA are twofold:

1) They bring absolutely nothing to the table in terms of technology, manufacturing or design expertise. Aside from money, they are a liability to the smooth running of the programme, risking delays cost overruns and even quality control or safety issues. Which could end up outweighing whatever money they come with.

2) Judging by their counter insurgency performance in the Yemeni civil war, something akin to the Iranian revolution happening to the House of Saud does not seem beyond the realms of possibility. The IRIAF F-14s were giving the Yanks a headache as recently as last decade.

As for the Indians. I think we're all on the same page about the nationalistic, corrupt and self-interested bedlam that is their military procurement. Not to mention the Russian angle.

Money is a remarkably fluid concept when it comes to government spending and national collaboration. As someone said previously, if three of the world's ten largest economies can't develop GCAP we have far bigger issues that the budgetary deficit.

We have a unique opportunity to shift the global combat aircraft marketplace by aligning with Japan. This could shape the industry for the second half of 21st century and create a sustainable and equitable ecosystem for upgrades and future projects.

[Warning: Rant Ahead]

...or alternatively we could screw it up, gift the entire market to the US and a few peripheral players and accept that the UK is in terminal decline as a country. Due, not to a negative economic certainty. but a national culture of pessimistic half remembered nostalgia laced with xenophobia and self-loathing.

Have the Saudis been an issue with Thypoon?

I thought the only stick in the mud there is Germany, blocking their second tranche order?

Saudi Arabia would provide 3d printing of parts and 5/6 billion of oil money.

The main issues as I see them with Tempest/ Saudi Arabia is it's undoubted potential.

It's a weapon system that could (and would) alter the balance of power in the gulf with its range and broad capabilities. The Israelis will be extremely unhappy about it, the Americans possibly slightly less so ....
(bar the strong pro Israel lobby within US Government).

The Americans stil have 'effective' control over Royal Saudi Airforce operations, they will still pull the strings due to the fact the bulk of their Airforce is of US origin.

No military operations (of note) will take place without a nod from the Whitehouse, Tempest or not.

[Jensy]

Have the Saudis been an issue with Thypoon?

I thought the only stick in the mud there is Germany, blocking their second tranche order?

Saudi Arabia would provide 3d printing of parts and 5/6 billion of oil money.

The main issues as I see them with Tempest/ Saudi Arabia is it's undoubted potential.

It's a weapon system that could (and would) alter the balance of power in the gulf with its range and broad capabilities. The Israelis will be extremely unhappy about it, the Americans possibly slightly less so ....
(bar the strong pro Israel lobby within US Government).

The Americans stil have 'effective' control over Royal Saudi Airforce operations, they will still pull the strings due to the fact the bulk of their Airforce is of US origin.

No military operations (of note) will take place without a nod from the Whitehouse, Tempest or not.

Not so much a specific issue but they would be, by far, the weakest link of the four members/partners. The Japanese (as we should) want this done quickly, efficiently and cost effectively. KSA will simply add complication. They have no unique selling point from an industrial perspective, the closest they've come is putting together Hawk kits sent to them from the UK and that's a largely 50 year old airframe.

If they want to secure the first 36-72 odd GCAPs available for export, with the stipulations I suggest above, then great. Please fire up the governmental 747 and deliver the gold to Warton!

Israel and Saudi relations are not what they've appeared for a long time. In both 1967 and 1973 they sent what would be called a token force to join the combined Arab armies. Now there's constantly biz jets flying via Sharm El Sheikh (which is amusing considering the resort's origins) and talk of normalisation. Iran is a far bigger concern for both nations, irrespective of Chinese attempts at playing diplomacy.

In an odd way, Israel might even welcome a GCAP sale to Saudi as they would then argue to get hold of (either flavour of) NGAD for regional balance.

[Jensy]

Have the Saudis been an issue with Thypoon?

I thought the only stick in the mud there is Germany, blocking their second tranche order?

Saudi Arabia would provide 3d printing of parts and 5/6 billion of oil money.

The main issues as I see them with Tempest/ Saudi Arabia is it's undoubted potential.

It's a weapon system that could (and would) alter the balance of power in the gulf with its range and broad capabilities. The Israelis will be extremely unhappy about it, the Americans possibly slightly less so ....
(bar the strong pro Israel lobby within US Government).

The Americans stil have 'effective' control over Royal Saudi Airforce operations, they will still pull the strings due to the fact the bulk of their Airforce is of US origin.

No military operations (of note) will take place without a nod from the Whitehouse, Tempest or not.

Not so much a specific issue but they would be, by far, the weakest link of the four members/partners. The Japanese (as we should) want this done quickly, efficiently and cost effectively. KSA will simply add complication. They have no unique selling point from an industrial perspective, the closest they've come is putting together Hawk kits sent to them from the UK and that's a largely 50 year old airframe.

If they want to secure the first 36-72 odd GCAPs available for export, with the stipulations I suggest above, then great. Please fire up the governmental 747 and deliver the gold to Warton!

Israel and Saudi relations are not what they've appeared for a long time. In both 1967 and 1973 they sent what would be called a token force to join the combined Arab armies. Now there's constantly biz jets flying via Sharm El Sheikh (which is amusing considering the resort's origins) and talk of normalisation. Iran is a far bigger concern for both nations, irrespective of Chinese attempts at playing diplomacy.

In an odd way, Israel might even welcome a GCAP sale to Saudi as they would then argue to get hold of (either flavour of) NGAD for regional balance.

You make good solid points there Jenset.....

[SD67]

Israel and Saudi relations are not what they've appeared for a long time. In both 1967 and 1973 they sent what would be called a token force to join the combined Arab armies. Now there's constantly biz jets flying via Sharm El Sheikh (which is amusing considering the resort's origins) and talk of normalisation. Iran is a far bigger concern for both nations, irrespective of Chinese attempts at playing diplomacy.

Spot on. They've been in undeclared alliance for years. Iran and revolutionary non state actors are the shared enemy

[SD67]

Great rant !
IMHO
Point 1) I'm guessing no the MOD ask for cash up front as a buy in in return for TT and local assembly on the back end

Point 2) Rich people generally don't start revolutions

Funny thing - the Saudis now own 10% of Boeing. I wonder if that comes into play in some way - oh the irony

1) That's something I could potentially support. Particularly if an export Tempest has some of the secret squirrel bits toned down and we maintain the capability to cripple them should things turn south for MBS.

2) Though I know what you mean, over the last few centuries most revolutions are started by the affluent and educated middle class, students or otherwise, (See: France/Russia (all three of them)/Ottoman Empire/Vietnam/Egypt/Cuba/Chile/Argentina), but in Saudi Arabia it's the religious element that's probably the bigger risk, combined with an influx of insurgents from neighbouring states.

At the end of the day, I value Japanese partnership more than sacks full of Riyals stuffed into a Rolls Royce Cullinan.

Funny thing - an uncle of mine served in the RAF in Logistics / Support. He was posted to KSA in the late 70s / early 80s, Dahran I believe. One of the biggest local contractors he wss dealing with was the Bin Laden family. Never met the dodgy younger brother though...

[SW1]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

[mrclark303]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

[new guy]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

Stop bullshiting, people are dying right now as due to Saudi Arabia's lack of human rights.
I don't think it takes a lot to pass the moral bar of slavery. apparently you find that a very high bar.

[SW1]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

You’ve never been involved with an aircraft development program have you.

You only contract organisations that add something specific to its technical development you don’t add countries that add nothing but require hand holding to dilute your resource.

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

They are not required to make the aircraft a commercial success or otherwise. Your theoretical costing are total nonsense and simply a vehicle for your buy American narrative.

If Sweden can develop a highly capable fighter a/c on their own and make it viable commercially. Then so can the U.K. Japan and Italy.

[new guy]

reminder that Saudi water reserves dry out ~2030, with osmosis only making up 10% of water production. this means that Saudi citizens are about to have a very bad time, not ignoring that their water, electricity, oil, are all pretty much free. There is also a lot more unstable stuff about the Saudi Arabia.

[SD67]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

Stop bullshiting, people are dying right now as due to Saudi Arabia's lack of human rights.
I don't think it takes a lot to pass the moral bar of slavery. apparently you find that a very high bar.

If Saudi Arabia is a Slave country then the UK have been actively involved in the Slave Trade for at least the last 50 years. We sold them Lightnings back in the 60s, there are 10s of thousands of British contractors there - including in the armed forces. In the 80s they used to joke that the Royal Saudi Airforce is a detachment of the RAF with a new paint job. Half the Princes are Sandhurst graduates. You know they have quite a good cricket league in Jeddah - although the outfield can be a bit hard.

Now there may be good hard headed reasons that they don't bring enough to the table for Tempest and stick to being a customer, fine but really, my iphone was likely built by 12 year olds

[mrclark303]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

You’ve never been involved with an aircraft development program have you.

You only contract organisations that add something specific to its technical development you don’t add countries that add nothing but require hand holding to dilute your resource.

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

They are not required to make the aircraft a commercial success or otherwise. Your theoretical costing are total nonsense and simply a vehicle for your buy American narrative.

If Sweden can develop a highly capable fighter a/c on their own and make it viable commercially. Then so can the U.K. Japan and Italy.

I will confidently say 40 billion for the programme, interesting to hear your cost point and we will see who's right before long.....

I've been involved with program management for many years SW1, I do know a thing or two, yes, Saudi money may prove critical to the success of Tempest.

Using Gripen as a good example of a 'successful' military aircraft programme unfortunately shows you have little to no idea regarding successful international programme management.

[mrclark303]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

Stop bullshiting, people are dying right now as due to Saudi Arabia's lack of human rights.
I don't think it takes a lot to pass the moral bar of slavery. apparently you find that a very high bar.

Oh grow up, your woke mindset will pile our economy into the ground.....

We've been selling the Saudis aircraft and weapon systems successfully for many decades, what's different now??

Do tell.....

[mrclark303]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

Stop bullshiting, people are dying right now as due to Saudi Arabia's lack of human rights.
I don't think it takes a lot to pass the moral bar of slavery. apparently you find that a very high bar.

If Saudi Arabia is a Slave country then the UK have been actively involved in the Slave Trade for at least the last 50 years. We sold them Lightnings back in the 60s, there are 10s of thousands of British contractors there - including in the armed forces. In the 80s they used to joke that the Royal Saudi Airforce is a detachment of the RAF with a new paint job. Half the Princes are Sandhurst graduates. You know they have quite a good cricket league in Jeddah - although the outfield can be a bit hard.

Now there may be good hard headed reasons that they don't bring enough to the table for Tempest and stick to being a customer, fine but really, my iphone was likely built by 12 year olds

No arguing with the Woke unfortunately, they have a superior moral compass apparently

[new guy]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

Stop bullshiting, people are dying right now as due to Saudi Arabia's lack of human rights.
I don't think it takes a lot to pass the moral bar of slavery. apparently you find that a very high bar.

Oh grow up, your woke mindset will pile our economy into the ground.....

We've been selling the Saudis aircraft and weapon systems successfully for many decades, what's different now??

Do tell.....

I am no Idiot who thinks the world, the UK, or the UK right now is cooky cutter shaped.
I have no desire to get into an Ideology debate with you.

So let me put it this way. It is likely that labour will be the next government, with or without a coalition with the liberal democrats.
The Italian prime-minister Giorgia Meloni is trying to play a more moderate role in-order to capture a larger voter base, rather than appeal to the more radicalise in her party, or indeed her young self. such can be seen with the support of Ukraine rather than the neutrality that some in her party would have preferred.
Japan is governed by the Liberal Democratic Party, and their values do not match.
None of these governments want to set a pretence with co-operating with Saudi Arabia in such a way. It makes them look bad.

Neither Italy or the UK will try and make japan allow Saudi-Arabia in, because the benefits of Saudi-Arabia joining probably don't overweight any damage it might do to the respective countries relationships. Italy and the UK probably don't want to say no to Saudi-Arabia themselves because it might weaken their respective relationships.

for japan it will probably always be no thanks, too risky
for the UK and Italy it will probably stay as OK, but only if japan agrees, knowing that japan won't.
The UK position could change in the future, with a labour government denying it if japan becomes more accepting.

The key is that we only have 12 years to develop one of the best fighters in the world, so best to bloody start working on it. None of the 3 states want a screw-up.

Like others have mentioned her in more succinct ways, Saudi-Arabia will likely bring more trouble than their money is worth.

However, An order for tempest from Saudi-Arabia, away from the development phase, just like with the typhoon, is much more likely to happen. I do not deny this will not happen, much rather the opposite. This will likely be for better profit for all 4 nations, because there is no development disruption.
But that is not what Saudi-Arabia wants.
they would rather spend more money if it means they have control in the development of GCAP, control of GCAP overall. That is obvious to the 3 GCAP states, and they sense trouble.

[Spitfire9]

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

Hiring contractors to do what they cannot do at inflated prices (plus possible backhanders included, pushing costs up further) would just add to development costs, wouldn't it? Any advantage of SA funding will be diluted, I think. For example, SA might put in $10 billion but only get $5 billion benefit in value of development work (inefficiency, inflated prices, creaming off commissions soaking up funds etc).

[SW1]

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

Hiring contractors to do what they cannot do at inflated prices (plus possible backhanders included, pushing costs up further) would just add to development costs, wouldn't it? Any advantage of SA funding will be diluted, I think. For example, SA might put in $10 billion but only get $5 billion benefit in value of development work (inefficiency, inflated prices, creaming off commissions soaking up funds etc).

The Saudis would likely cover the additional cost at their own expense they would want to save face. The point is more where are the contractors coming from and what happens when they’ve had enough and leave. Also as you get into the design and certification it’s how much spreading of a very limited pool of senior engineers and manufacturing capacity from the oem is required to take over the MRB functions of suppliers who haven’t been able to recruit what they need or simply can’t do what they said they would. You’re simply adding risk that doesn’t need to be there.

You contract known specialists from the areas you need, not simply hand work to countries who put cash in because it looks gd on some program guys chart, seen it happen so many time it’s a recipe for disaster. If you wish to develop a fighter for your needs, develop it, if you don’t have the stomach for it don’t start it.

[Meriv9]

Nothing forces us to give the Saudi the same level of cooperation we main members have.

We can do like for the F-35 tier cooperation where Italy was second tier.

We greatly benefited from doing simple wings and specially the maintenance with the number of adopters in Europe increasing.

We could give to the Saudi the local monopoly of maintenance and monopoly of sales in Muslim countries. It isnt a small benefit.

[mrclark303]

Nothing forces us to give the Saudi the same level of cooperation we main members have.

We can do like for the F-35 tier cooperation where Italy was second tier.

We greatly benefited from doing simple wings and specially the maintenance with the number of adopters in Europe increasing.

We could give to the Saudi the local monopoly of maintenance and monopoly of sales in Muslim countries. It isnt a small benefit.

The main difference between this prospective aircraft and it's predecessors, the thing that really makes it it Gen6 are it's methods of construction.

Advanced 3d printing of complex parts and automated construction lines are going to be absolutely key here.

Not just for Tempest, but probably for all aircraft manufacturing in 2040 plus time frame.

Saudi Arabia want in on the ground floor with this new technology, they see an opportunity to divest themselves of foreign engineers and do things largely in house with their own people.

They are just starting to diversify away from the petrochemical industries and using that vast oil revenue to shape their future.

The writing is on the wall for massive oil industry, within the next 50 years, demand will be a fraction of today's POL requirements.

that said, SA have some of the easiest oil to access
( therefore cheapest to bring to the market) so they will be in the game for the rest of this century, as demand for lubricants, plastics etc will continue, but in a smaller, less intensive way.

Others will bow out of the petrochemical industry, as they won't be able to complete with the gulf states, as the barrel price steadily drops with reduced world demand year on year.

My point being, Saudi Arabia are serious about Tempest involvement and crucially (unlike our empty pockets) actually have folding money in abundance!

If they bring money and a (Typhoon diverted) order of 48 to the table in 2025, then think we would be crazy to turn them away.

[SW1]

Nothing forces us to give the Saudi the same level of cooperation we main members have.

We can do like for the F-35 tier cooperation where Italy was second tier.

We greatly benefited from doing simple wings and specially the maintenance with the number of adopters in Europe increasing.

We could give to the Saudi the local monopoly of maintenance and monopoly of sales in Muslim countries. It isnt a small benefit.

Italy certainly didn’t find them simple.

The design and manufacture of wings are not simple especially with the advanced composite layups being used for this program. They’re being done at a specialist centre within the uk for the tempest demonstrator.