Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[Cooper]

Is this the tentative slow slide of the two projects merging into one ? Mmh

No.

As long as France keeps up the 'its our way or the highway' attitude, and lets be honest, they simply don't know how to act any other way, the UK won't touch a joint project with a 10ft pole.

[motiv]

Obviously, again about the FCAS (Tempest news is a little slow).

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/franco-germ ... -1.1713693

(Bloomberg) -- Development of a future European fighter jet first mooted by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 is paralyzed by a dispute between leading industry suppliers.

The head of Dassault Aviation SA on Wednesday warned talks with the German arm of Airbus SE have been bogged down by a power struggle over “division of labor” that could threaten the project.

“We still have difficulties with Airbus,” Dassault Chief Executive Officer Eric Trappier said at a press conference in Paris. “It’s not always easy to negotiate with the Germans.”

[tomuk]

“It’s not always easy to negotiate with the Germans.”

[Timmymagic]

You would need a heart of stone not to laugh...you have to wonder how the Spanish are feeling about it as well...

"While he ruled out a collaboration with the U.K., saying talks with that country’s suppliers on the future European fighter have ended"

Praise the lord...given the above, and Germany and France's spat the possibility of Italy joining, I think, is effectively nil. The whole workshare arrangements would need to be reworked...and nobody would be happy.

[SD67]

If I were the French I'd go it alone. What exactly does Germany bring to the table except red tape? There must be intense political pressure to make it "European" but at the end of the day Dassault is a private company and the Germans may be overplaying their hand.

[Gtal]

True groundhog day, now Italian industry industry is openly yearning for an opportunity to hitch themselves to FCAS whichever way they can, basically treating Tempest as a means to that end and maybe to retain some RnD capabilities in the meantime.

Meanwhile transatlantic media proclaims what is it now, for the 8th or 9th time?
FCAS is about to fall apart, this time it's going to happen!

Makes total sense to bring that article, after literally the last 8 times in 3 years similar pieces have been published and *every single one* proved to be a complete fantasy/wishful thinking/propaganda scenario.

The desperation FCAS seems to be generating in some parts of the english speaking world is remarkable.

[Cooper]

True groundhog day, now Italian industry industry is openly yearning for an opportunity to hitch themselves to FCAS whichever way they can, basically treating Tempest as a means to that end and maybe to retain some RnD capabilities in the meantime.

Meanwhile transatlantic media proclaims what is it now, for the 8th or 9th time?
FCAS is about to fall apart, this time it's going to happen!

Makes total sense to bring that article, after literally the last 8 times in 3 years similar pieces have been published and *every single one* proved to be a complete fantasy/wishful thinking/propaganda scenario.

The desperation FCAS seems to be generating in some parts of the english speaking world is remarkable.

A well & truly triggered German...

[SD67]

Hilarious.
As of now FCAS does not exist. Spend to date is like 100 million - ie a fibreglassmockup and a powerpoint.

I think we’ll get a “Stealth Rafale”, in about 2040 designed by Dassault, they may give Germany some subcontracting work to make them feel good but let’s not kid ourselves it’ll be a French aircraft

[Jensy]

True groundhog day, now Italian industry industry is openly yearning for an opportunity to hitch themselves to FCAS whichever way they can, basically treating Tempest as a means to that end and maybe to retain some RnD capabilities in the meantime.

If you're referring to Leonardo's acquisition of a stake in Hensoldt you're reaching...

Hensoldt needs them, Captor is principally a Leonardo product. No Leonardo....no Radar 1 for Eurofighter. But that doesn't exactly bode well for FCAS does it...the principal sensor is being developed by a company (Hensoldt) with no great experience in it, that needs investment and expertise from elsewhere...and has no involvement in the more advanced developments (Radar 2).

[Defiance]

If you're referring to Leonardo's acquisition of a stake in Hensoldt you're reaching...

Probably a bit of projection going on, we know who rules the roost in FCAS world ...

[Jensy]

Oh how different things might have been had BAE and Airbus merged a decade ago...

With regards Spain and SCAF, it will be interesting to see how their trainer programme goes. That rehated MAKO from Airbus could keep them on side if the financials and industrial benefits are balanced. Their prime isn't Airbus ES but Indra which was an interesting choice.

If the SCAF alliance falls apart they could go with either side or none. Though they very nearly did join Rafale, but didn't, at a similar time of discord in a multinational fighter project...

Italy, like ourselves, was directly excluded from the birth of SCAF. There are some in their government who will not easily forgive. Plus Franco-Italian relations are rather bipolar throughout history. Leonardo gets far more from the UK than nearly any other non-US market, and returns the favour willingly. They were an integral part of the Tempest ecosystem before Italy was.

On team Tempest, SAAB (and by extension Sweden) is the interesting one to watch. Gripen sales seem to be drying up with focus shifting to the T-7A joint venture for their future fast jet bread and butter. Getting them interested in an actual manned platform (rather than systems of other system) poses many rewards but also pitfalls and challenges.

As things stand the UK could be in a far worse situation. My biggest concern is keeping skills at Warton long enough to build anything.

[SD67]

I agree that’s the challenge - preventing the age old British problem of the “Promising Development Project”, ie the boffins are having orgasms while work in the factory dries up. Ideally there’d be a nice little Saudi follow on order for Typhoon about now, plus Quadrigia plus Spain. Maybe there needs to be a small batch 4 for the RAF around 2030

[Jensy]

IF the Saudi order actually ever happens...Quadriga and Spain help in a big way. But I think the larger German order to replace Tornado GR and Tornado ECR could be the one to watch. I genuinely think Germany will go with a small, politically palatable, order of F-35 specifically for the nuclear mission. It really is the only game in town, F-18 and F-15EX would all need significant development work for the nuclear mission and have a finite life. 30 odd F-35 would give Germany the best platform for B-61/12 delivery, experience in LO operations, commonality with Dutch, Belgian and Italian nuclear mission aircraft and politically would be a good message to send to both the US and France...for the US a message of 'we're still here pulling our weight' and to France 'we do have other options you know...'.

Going with F-35 would then give the German's the options of a larger Typhoon buy to tide them over and development of the ECR aircraft which will stand them in good stead and could support F-35, Typhoon and then FCAS in turn. To be honest BAE Warton and the RAF could do with 24 odd ECR Typhoon as well...Radar 2, Spear and Spear-EW are parts of the puzzle that will be in place. Could make a very good control aircraft for loyal wingmen and UCAV's as well...

[Meriv9]

True groundhog day, now Italian industry industry is openly yearning for an opportunity to hitch themselves to FCAS whichever way they can, basically treating Tempest as a means to that end and maybe to retain some RnD capabilities in the meantime.

Meanwhile transatlantic media proclaims what is it now, for the 8th or 9th time?
FCAS is about to fall apart, this time it's going to happen!

Makes total sense to bring that article, after literally the last 8 times in 3 years similar pieces have been published and *every single one* proved to be a complete fantasy/wishful thinking/propaganda scenario.

The desperation FCAS seems to be generating in some parts of the english speaking world is remarkable.

Just profit and consolidation towards the electronic side of the industry.

About FCAS failing it isnt Italians or UK that writes how it is going to fall, it is your own partner. [The link is already in google translate]

https://www-latribune-fr.translate.goog ... x_tr_hl=it

And to me it is pretty probable that the french are going to ditch you Germans.

Before the EAU 14bln order for Rafale, when you would have bought the F-35 it would have been the french that would have worked against the clock, making them weaker in the negotiation.

But with EAU? Indonesia and India probable orders? Probably as the french in their own forum write they are going to have the line open until 2035. This is giving them a big confidence boost. ( like if they needed more grandeur)

It couldn't be otherwise, the french are a power house for export, no doubt about that. There is nothing like the DGA (direction general d'armament) and how strong they push for their export. At the same time their defence sector is very big in respect to Italian and English one.


Dassault not present in the chart should be around 60bln.

Any kind of big collaboration like in a Eurofighter would mean a drop in their exports and a forced downsizing of their industry.

They need German money, but if they feel that they can survive alone with their exports, like it is happening, Germany will be knocking at Tempest door.

[SD67]

They need German money, but if they feel that they can survive alone with their exports, like it is happening, Germany will be knocking at Tempest door.

And we should politely, but firmly keep the door locked shut. Germany has been the bane of the Eurofighter project from day 1. Excessive workshare demands, delays, and they arguably cost us the India with the box ticking "please promise you're not going to use these to hurt anyone" mentality. Whoever thought Germany should lead a sales pitch to India needs their head examined. No-one is going to buy fighters from a Green Pacifist Foreign Minister. I believe they're still even embargoing EF components to Saudi Arabia!

Luftwaffe should buy F35s and Airbus Defence should concentrate on Helicopters and A400, maybe a MPA to compete with P8.

[TheLoneRanger]

And we should politely, but firmly keep the door locked shut. Germany has been the bane of the Eurofighter project from day 1. Excessive workshare demands, delays, and they arguably cost us the India with the box ticking "please promise you're not going to use these to hurt anyone" mentality. Whoever thought Germany should lead a sales pitch to India needs their head examined. No-one is going to buy fighters from a Green Pacifist Foreign Minister. I believe they're still even embargoing EF components to Saudi Arabia!

Luftwaffe should buy F35s and Airbus Defence should concentrate on Helicopters and A400, maybe a MPA to compete with P8.

The German's also managed to mess up other export bids for Typhoon which was in their sales territory. They've sent lower spec German aircraft for demos, which the customer would never have ordered (Tranche 1's with missing PIRATE and other upgrades). They could have asked BAE for a loan of an up to spec aircraft but didn't. Neither the Spanish or German's have made any inroads in the export market for Typhoon with their sales territories. The German's only succeeded in Austria by passing on some ex-German aircraft with a load of bribery involved.

They were also the reason for Typhoon entering service with few A2G capabilities. The whole EF2000 farce in the mid-90's that saw the German parliament delay budgets and refuse funds really impacted Typhoon in the early years. It's only the RAF and BAE who have driven the aircraft forward to get its full capabilities. But the damage has been done...

Quite frankly the French are welcome to the Germans...and the Spanish.

[inch]

I'm still hoping the French can keep the Germans ,there is zero benefit for the tempest program having the Germans onboard and a huge detriment if they got involved tbh

[Lord Jim]

Well the do have a large Cheque Book by European standards, which would be useful.

[Jensy]

Well the do have a large Cheque Book by European standards, which would be useful.

They do, but as we found with Typhoon they issue post dated cheques, cheques bounce....or are 'in the post'...which is disastrous in the development phase of a project, endless stop-start...

[Meriv9]

This is a big what if territory, trying to predict the future like this is pretty useless but fun .

The vantage we have with the Germans IMHO are the next ones:

The big problem with the French is that they asked access to already developed technologies, meanwhile the french answered you will have access to new tech the tech you are paying for.

It is reasonable from both sides.

The good point for us is that if Germans buy the F-35 they will be at our own tech level so this problem wont be posed. Yes they wont have the same production ability as UK and ITA since they joined later but they will access to the F-35 tech.

And during the Typhoon we still had the Challenger and Ariete, while right now i think it is pretty probable we are going to buy the Leo3 (or Eurotank depending how much french is inside) and probably also the Lynx. We would have already something to negotiate with the Germans.

The problem are the Spanish. Because we can buy tanks and other N° stuff from the Germans to counterbalance the Tempest.Stuff that we need. But what we buy from the Spanish?

[motiv]

The problem are the Spanish. Because we can buy tanks and other N° stuff from the Germans to counterbalance the Tempest.Stuff that we need. But what we buy from the Spanish?

Work on the wingman…

[tomuk]

But what we buy from the Spanish?

We could buy some more AJAX

[inch]

How about we just leave them Germans alone full stop ,stick with plan A ,do not under any circumstances get them involved in tempest program ,as I've stated they have absolutely zero nothing useful to offer the program , Even the German money couldn't swing it , You've got a greens / left wing government who would try to tie our export hands ,if they want to get involved wait till we've built the plane and they can buy the finished article if they want ,I wouldn't even let them build any in Germany ,if you want one we will build it for you ,

[SD67]

The problem are the Spanish. Because we can buy tanks and other N° stuff from the Germans to counterbalance the Tempest.Stuff that we need. But what we buy from the Spanish?

Work on the wingman…

Follow up A400 order?

[Meriv9]

How about we just leave them Germans alone full stop ,stick with plan A ,do not under any circumstances get them involved in tempest program ,as I've stated they have absolutely zero nothing useful to offer the program , Even the German money couldn't swing it , You've got a greens / left wing government who would try to tie our export hands ,if they want to get involved wait till we've built the plane and they can buy the finished article if they want ,I wouldn't even let them build any in Germany ,if you want one we will build it for you ,

Ok we leave them out, and the french leave them out. But this isn't a two player game.

This is a 3 players game and we aren't considering the leader of the game.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... lite-image

You really think the US would waste a chance to divide et impera?

Do we(both Tempest and FCAS) really want to gift the US an industrial beachhead on the continent? It is already bad that all east-Europe is in excessive US sphere of influence.

Another point in favor of the Germans, 30 years have passed, 90s Germany isnt the same.
Back then they had the reunification, they were the sick man of Europe.

Now? They are the, or should be/act like the locomotive of the Continent.

https://www.economist.com/special/1999/ ... f-the-euro

It is way better to keep the Germans into the FCAS first, Tempest in worst case, than pushing them into American arms.