Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
User avatar
Halidon
Member
Posts: 539
Joined: 12 May 2015, 01:34
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Halidon »

Little J wrote: 14 Mar 2023, 10:12
SD67 wrote: 14 Mar 2023, 01:04 .. . And one of those A320 production lines is in China - any conflict of interest there?
Didn't Boeing have a 737 production line in China?
No.

SW1
Senior Member
Posts: 5625
Joined: 27 Aug 2018, 19:12
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

Not a production line but a 737 completions and delivery centre. But like the a320 line in China it’s only for Chinese customers.

SW1
Senior Member
Posts: 5625
Joined: 27 Aug 2018, 19:12
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... japan-2023

GCAP isn’t going to be a short love affair. It’s going to be a marriage. AUKUS was another project we announced this week - the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, developing the next generation of nuclear attack submarines. That’s a 20, 30, 40 year programme. And GCAP will also be of a similar length. So when we as the nations committed to this programme, there’s no going back. The three partners have to keep each other going with forward momentum. There’s no changing our mind at the end of the decade or halfway through because to do so is to let each other down. People don’t like letting teams down and nor should they and industry must also share that overall responsibility. Industry mustn’t look just to itself and its own shareholders. It’s got to look across because as ministers and Chief of Air Staff, our job is to deliver a requirement to defend our nations and that goes above all else. It goes above individual industry self interest, it will go above shareholder interest and that has to be the overruling principle that must guide this.

So as we progress to the next phases, let’s remember that at the heart of this it’s about defending our democracies and our values. It will not only help deliver a sixth generation fighter, but will also help other industries and complement other developments.

GCAP from the United Kingdom’s point of view, we will be investing £2 billion up to 2025 and £10 billion over the next 10 years. The overall development programme will be above £25 billion over the next 10 years and they’ll share designs and hopefully get towards development by 2025. And in service to Japan by 2035, a key milestone, a milestone that we must all meet and all deliver for the Japanese. It’s incredibly important that we don’t let this slip.

The next milestone this year is the agreement of the system’s requirements. And I will add my own air force to make sure that the requirements are common amongst all three air forces and kept consistent. 2025 is the development phase and the flying phase is towards the end of the decade or early 2030s. I think it’s incredibly exciting.
These users liked the author SW1 for the post (total 5):
jedibeeftrixinchmatt00773SD67serge750

Ron5
Donator
Posts: 7227
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:42
United States of America

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Ron5 »


User avatar
Jensy
Senior Member
Posts: 1049
Joined: 05 Aug 2016, 19:44
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Jensy »

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-03-15/

From unnamed sources:
"The cost of the project will likely be around 40% each for Japan and Britain," one of the people with knowledge of discussions told Reuters. Both sources, who asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to talk to the media, added that most of the programmes details were yet to be decided.
However:
"The MOD does not recognise these comments," a spokesperson said. Work on cost-sharing arrangements "is being conducted before the development phase starts in 2025 and is not yet complete", the spokesperson added.

The Italian defence ministry said reports about a "non-equal participation" in the GCAP programme were "totally speculative".
On the subject of speculation:

-Whilst not definitive, the numbers of aircraft currently expected to be replaced by GCAP are:
  • Typhoon (RAF) 107 Tranche 2+3 (with c.30 remaining Tranche 1 aircraft planned to retire by 2025
  • Typhoon (AM) 68 Tranche 2+3 (plus 28 Tranche 1 aircraft possibly set to be replaced - see below)
  • F-2 (JASDF) 91 remaining in the fleet
- Whether the respective air forces are seeking to increase or reduce numbers over their replacements is unclear.
- Presumably funding would be closer linked to industrial participation than to procurement numbers.
- Very much doubt Italy would be keen to not have an assembly line.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... stems-says

As always I can't help but feel that we should be ordering somewhere around 24 more Typhoons for the RAF... but can't see it happening. Even with further exports, the assembly line at Warton is going to be rather quiet by the late 2020s.

P.S: Some models from DSEI Japan, showing a slightly larger and modified wing shape to the one on the rotating podium:

Image
These users liked the author Jensy for the post:
inch

Timmymagic
Donator
Posts: 3224
Joined: 07 May 2015, 23:57
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Timmymagic »

Jensy wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 16:01 As always I can't help but feel that we should be ordering somewhere around 24 more Typhoons for the RAF... but can't see it happening. Even with further exports, the assembly line at Warton is going to be rather quiet by the late 2020s.
Been saying this for an age...hopefully the Saudi's order the additional 48-72 that have been mentioned for years. If not 24 EK variants would make a lot of sense and could actually be used to support Typhoon, F-35 AND Tempest eventually...

Zero chance though...
These users liked the author Timmymagic for the post:
Jensy

SD67
Senior Member
Posts: 1029
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Way too sensible for our MOD. it’s what everyone else is doing - Germany Spain now maybe Italy.

The RAF may fall below a minimum viable strength while production of Temoest is still ramping up. Around 100 T2/ T3 so around 70 available at any one time and some of them will need to last to 2050+, I cannot see it

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 185
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

Meriv9 wrote: 19 Dec 2022, 20:40
Rambling talking and guessing? I think it will end 35% Uk+ 30% Jap + 25% ITA + 10 SWE (or someone in place of them)
Almost there i wasnt expecting Uk and Japan at the same level and Sweden out

SD67
Senior Member
Posts: 1029
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.

User avatar
mrclark303
Donator
Posts: 795
Joined: 06 May 2015, 10:47
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by mrclark303 »

SD67 wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 23:16 I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.
It's an interesting idea, I can see a synergy developing between Mitsubishi and Bae Systems moving forward, perhaps incorporating Leonardo too...

As many of us predicted, the design appears to be growing into an F22 sized platform, not surprising really, and we don't have Germany and France this time constantly trying to put the design in a hot wash and shrink it!

Re the numbers game, at this point it's hypothetical, as we don't know the manned, UAV/ loyal Wingman mix being planned.

I would agree that a potential split UK and Japan 40% each with Italy 20% seems the most likely.

Two production lines would be optimal, I would suggest if Italy wants to assemble their own, then they pay the costs involved involving that enterprise nationally, as they have have with F35.

The insane four assembly line Eurofighter project certainly hindered and inflated costs all round, thanks to European political sensibilities!

Let's have a fantasy fleets guessing game anyway!

I'm going to say 180 each for the UK and Japan and 80/90 for Italy.

The international situation dictates we build back force structure into our respective Air Forces, so I expect numbers to climb.

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by dmereifield »

180 for the UK does sound fantasy fleets....I'd say more like 120....
These users liked the author dmereifield for the post:
jedibeeftrix

Zeno
Member
Posts: 170
Joined: 12 Jun 2022, 02:24
Australia

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Zeno »

Are there hopes for exports to countries and would there be similar restrictions on the codes as per the f-35

SD67
Senior Member
Posts: 1029
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

mrclark303 wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 11:13
SD67 wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 23:16 I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.
It's an interesting idea, I can see a synergy developing between Mitsubishi and Bae Systems moving forward, perhaps incorporating Leonardo too...

As many of us predicted, the design appears to be growing into an F22 sized platform, not surprising really, and we don't have Germany and France this time constantly trying to put the design in a hot wash and shrink it!

Re the numbers game, at this point it's hypothetical, as we don't know the manned, UAV/ loyal Wingman mix being planned.
I'm an optimist. There's no reason Tempest should be that much more expensive than Typhoon, allowing for inflation. Unless the boffins go crazy. Even in the short term the involvement of Japan means the UK share of development costs falls by a few billion.

After the mid 2030s Successor is done, F35 is done, T26 is done and the Aukus deal will be making some contribution to SSN costs via economies of scale. But Ajax will no doubt still still be "close to acceptance" LOL

I'm more worried about the bridge - the RAF running out of airframe life and Wharton running low on work.

I think the Western world cannot rely on the US and France as monopoly suppliers

SD67
Senior Member
Posts: 1029
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Zeno wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 12:24 Are there hopes for exports to countries and would there be similar restrictions on the codes as per the f-35
This may be something that needs to be nailed down with Japan. I'm sure Italy and BAE between them will sell anything to anyone with a free Ferrari or three thrown in.

User avatar
Jensy
Senior Member
Posts: 1049
Joined: 05 Aug 2016, 19:44
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Jensy »

dmereifield wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 12:17 180 for the UK does sound fantasy fleets....I'd say more like 120....
The only way I can see us getting to 180 would be if the F-35 fleet is shifted entirely to the Royal Navy's budget, which would require a rather vast amount of additional funding.

My thoughts would be somewhere around 100 in the long term fleet, perhaps plus some early test and production examples having a short lifespan.

Japan on the other hand might well find itself looking for an F-15J replacement whilst GCAP is in production, which could see a considerable second order from them.

For an interesting comparison on numbers, the USAF is supposedly looking at 200 airframes for it's own NGAD programme (yes I know The Drive isn't the most reliable of sources). Almost a like for like Raptor replacement:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ture-plans

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by dmereifield »

I could see Japan ordering >200 given the neighbourhood they find themselves in. I reckon 120-140 over the lifetime of the project for the UK

User avatar
mrclark303
Donator
Posts: 795
Joined: 06 May 2015, 10:47
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by mrclark303 »

Jensy wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 15:43
dmereifield wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 12:17 180 for the UK does sound fantasy fleets....I'd say more like 120....
The only way I can see us getting to 180 would be if the F-35 fleet is shifted entirely to the Royal Navy's budget, which would require a rather vast amount of additional funding.

My thoughts would be somewhere around 100 in the long term fleet, perhaps plus some early test and production examples having a short lifespan.

Japan on the other hand might well find itself looking for an F-15J replacement whilst GCAP is in production, which could see a considerable second order from them.

For an interesting comparison on numbers, the USAF is supposedly looking at 200 airframes for it's own NGAD programme (yes I know The Drive isn't the most reliable of sources). Almost a like for like Raptor replacement:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ture-plans
Well the RAF was seriously damaged by Labours cutting of the Jaguar fleet, then the Conservatives cut the Harrier fleet and reduced the GR4 fleet!

These appalling cuts gutted the RAF of depth, then the GR4 was allowed to go without replacement leaving the RAF with Half's dozen squadrons....

Since then the world has turned and we need to add mass again.

In my book that's building back to a minimum of 12 squadrons ( a number we should never have dropped from) with mass made up by a capable loyal Wingman.

An RAF order of 180 Tempest will cover this and transfer all 80/90 F35B to the FAA, creating four squadron's.

It seems like a mountain to climb, it isn't, it only seems that way because we let our guard down so far, it amounts to absolutely criminal neglect of our defence....

Meriv9
Member
Posts: 185
Joined: 05 Feb 2016, 00:19
Italy

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Meriv9 »

SD67 wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 23:16 I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.
Not with Wallace that in two public speaks one after the other keeps warning the other Jap/Ita that leaving is bad.

Look at track record. We are probably the best in Europe about playing by the rules and standing by the word given.

It gives a bad taste.

We are already expanding remember that Leonardo got 25% Hensoldt.

So parodoxically ITA/UK are also inside the FCAS :D

https://www.hensoldt.net/news/hensoldt- ... programme/

My wishfull thinking is that Tempest wins the industrial battle in Europe and we overcome Dassault and Airbus.

I cannot wait for BAE kingfisher rounds to work, it will make toghether with Vulcano and Darts(if upscaled) an amazing tool out of the 127mm.

I hope we can exchange with the Japanese M346 for C2/P1

And to not loose the Swedish on the way.

We have already saw the combination of BAE/Leonardo with eh SuperAV i got a good feeling that this adventure will end well.

User avatar
Jensy
Senior Member
Posts: 1049
Joined: 05 Aug 2016, 19:44
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Jensy »

mrclark303 wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 21:01 In my book that's building back to a minimum of 12 squadrons ( a number we should never have dropped from) with mass made up by a capable loyal Wingman.

An RAF order of 180 Tempest will cover this and transfer all 80/90 F35B to the FAA, creating four squadron's.
You're preaching to the choir! No disagreement from me.

Our biggest obstacles, aside from funding, are the training pipeline, which is now scaled to a fast jet fleet of less than 200 platforms, and the limit of only three main operating bases.

This is why in the medium term I'd like to see us building the Typhoon fleet, even if it comes at the cost of additional F-35s (beyond the planned 24-26.

Of course the current government is just as bad as their predecessors, talking up increased SSN numbers that won't enter service for a decade and a half.

Keeping GCAP affordable is probably our biggest opportunity for a larger combat air fleet.
These users liked the author Jensy for the post:
mrclark303

TheLoneRanger
Member
Posts: 330
Joined: 01 Jul 2020, 19:15
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

I think the numbers will be way more than than the 120-180 people here suggest. My imho my view is ~250 units. The lesson from the Ukraine war is the need to have combat mass, and with the UK being involved in the European theatre, and now a toe in the "Indo-Pacific" theater - the UK will need more airframes to be able to multiplex between both theatres.

The UK and the western world are about to undergo a fundamental change in their defence and security posture ... (imho).

The UK will thin out its land forces ( and let the European NATO partners bulk up on Land forces like Poland is currently doing ) and bring an oversized airpower presence to the European theatre as its commit to NATO European defence and be able to switch to the Indo-Pacific theatre if required. We will see a doubling of our submarine attack fleet as a result of AUKUS ... Our airforce will follow but not our Army.
These users liked the author TheLoneRanger for the post (total 2):
SD67wargame_insomniac

SW1
Senior Member
Posts: 5625
Joined: 27 Aug 2018, 19:12
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

I don’t think mass is a lesson from Ukraine. The lesson is dispersed precision and exist. If you continue to exist for an air defence capability it changes the calculus of the enemy regardless of your size. Of course for ourselves we’re really talking in a nato context and as a nuclear power state so very different to Ukraine.

When the RAF had 11 tornado GR squadrons and 3 harrier and 3 jaguar squadrons. The roles largely were tornado, low level nuclear strike, and jp233 anti airfield. With harrier and jaguar close air support.

Nuclear strike is gone is it coming back? Doubt it. Jp233 largely replaced by standoff (doesn’t necessarily need to be jet launched) and close air support while still required and also done with Reapers you could argue a lesson from Ukraine maybe that precision artillery is taking over a bigger portion of that role not to mention a significant reduction in army size. And aircraft are largely multirole as opposed to single role back then.

Air superiority remains largely as was so you could argue that should be roughly similar so fighters and taking down surface to air sites. So before starting to build more fastjet fleets what is the roles and in how many places realistically because they’ve evolved significantly since end of Cold War.

Spitfire9
Member
Posts: 178
Joined: 21 Dec 2022, 22:05
Norway

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Spitfire9 »

At the DSEI Japan exhibition in Tokyo, the national industry champions for advanced defence electronics representing Japan, the UK and Italy have announced the signing of a collaboration agreement, the next formal step towards a permanent industrial construct.

The companies: Mitsubishi Electric representing Japan, Leonardo UK representing the UK and both Leonardo and Elettronica representing Italy, have agreed to forge a closer business relationship and assess appropriate commercial and international operating models, readying the partners for the next stage of the GCAP programme. This will happen in parallel with ongoing research and development work by all partners.
https://www.leonardo.com/en/press-relea ... id=1153438

SD67
Senior Member
Posts: 1029
Joined: 23 Jul 2019, 09:49
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Meriv9 wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 21:14
SD67 wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 23:16 I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.
Not with Wallace that in two public speaks one after the other keeps warning the other Jap/Ita that leaving is bad.


It gives a bad taste.

We are already expanding remember that Leonardo got 25% Hensoldt.

So parodoxically ITA/UK are also inside the FCAS :D
You’re also inside NH90 - not that that’s really something to boast about LOL

I suspect the Wallace comments may be a bit more for domestic UK consumption, laying down red lines for an incoming UK labour government and the spectre of TSR2. I really don’t think they’re aimed at partners, maybe something gets lost in translation.
IMHO we have the team the funding the plan let’s just crack on and get the demonstrator in the air. If Sweden or anyone else wants in at this stage they can subcontract to one of the primes

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by dmereifield »

TheLoneRanger wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 10:49 I think the numbers will be way more than than the 120-180 people here suggest. My imho my view is ~250 units. The lesson from the Ukraine war is the need to have combat mass, and with the UK being involved in the European theatre, and now a toe in the "Indo-Pacific" theater - the UK will need more airframes to be able to multiplex between both theatres.

The UK and the western world are about to undergo a fundamental change in their defence and security posture ... (imho).

The UK will thin out its land forces ( and let the European NATO partners bulk up on Land forces like Poland is currently doing ) and bring an oversized airpower presence to the European theatre as its commit to NATO European defence and be able to switch to the Indo-Pacific theatre if required. We will see a doubling of our submarine attack fleet as a result of AUKUS ... Our airforce will follow but not our Army.
What is needed and what Tory/Labour/Lib Dem HMG will fund are completely different things.

There wint be a doubling of thr SSN, we'll be lucky to get a couple more (8/9 total). We won't get anywhere new 200 let alone 250 Tempest
These users liked the author dmereifield for the post:
serge750

User avatar
mrclark303
Donator
Posts: 795
Joined: 06 May 2015, 10:47
United Kingdom

Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by mrclark303 »

SD67 wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 14:00
Meriv9 wrote: 17 Mar 2023, 21:14
SD67 wrote: 16 Mar 2023, 23:16 I hope BAE and Leonardo in particular take the opportunity to integrate as much as possible on this. The combined strengths would make a formidable competitor.

In my perfect world there one day be a comprehensive Anglo Italy JV company covering all air platforms.- Tempest, Helicopters, M346 - 50/50 straight split.
Not with Wallace that in two public speaks one after the other keeps warning the other Jap/Ita that leaving is bad.


It gives a bad taste.

We are already expanding remember that Leonardo got 25% Hensoldt.

So parodoxically ITA/UK are also inside the FCAS :D
You’re also inside NH90 - not that that’s really something to boast about LOL

I suspect the Wallace comments may be a bit more for domestic UK consumption, laying down red lines for an incoming UK labour government and the spectre of TSR2. I really don’t think they’re aimed at partners, maybe something gets lost in translation.
IMHO we have the team the funding the plan let’s just crack on and get the demonstrator in the air. If Sweden or anyone else wants in at this stage they can subcontract to one of the primes
Don't mention TSR2..... It still casts a very long shadow!
I really hope Labour ( if they get in, it's looking slightly less the certainty now) pick up the baton and carry on with Tempest..

It might be tricky to cancel by the next election as the corporate structure is now taking shape....

Post Reply