General UK Defence Discussion

[topman]

I wonder how many people we'd need for all that?

High thousands i suspect, perhaps nearer 10k.

[Poiuytrewq]

RAF and Army have similar headcount issues where are all the crews going to come from for all this kit?

Good question.

IMO it will take 2.5% of GDP to just sort out the current mess without increasing ambition.

That foreign procurement list would require 3% to 3.25% which would transform the effectiveness of the U.K. armed forces and reinstate much of the mass lost post 2010.

Many of the recent contributors in the media have been calling for 4% or 5% of GDP. My point is what would that look like in practical terms and how would the MoD cope with such a vast increase without waste on an industrial scale?

[Poiuytrewq]

Apart from sustaining the US industrial base at the expense of our own.

What on that list could be procured in the U.K.?

Would that list even be the priority spend areas?

Yes but increasing recruitment and retention would be vital to make it all work.

If HMG decided the threat picture warrants a serious uplift in spending starting with the Army and the RAF is sensible as much can achieved within 5 years.

As for RN what could be achieved within 5 years? IMO it’s a lot less than people think.

• A second batch of T31 could be built at Rosyth but they wouldn’t start to commission until the 2030s.

• More T26 could be ordered but Govan is already fully committed until 2040 anyway. The build schedule could be accelerated to make the most of the new infrastructure but it’s unlikely RN would gain much before 2030.

• H&W Belfast is at capacity with the FSS between 2025 - 2031 so little extra output can be realistically expected.

• Appledore has spare capacity but only for blocks or smaller vessels.

• Regardless of extra investment, SSN and SSBN numbers won’t increase within 5 years.

The other UK fabrication and maintenance yards could build blocks to be integrated at Rosyth and Govan but it would take years to get the process going smoothly. The pace of build could be accelerated at Govan and Rosyth but could the management, workforce and infrastructure cope?

A long term drumbeat of one vessel completed every 12 months at Rosyth and 18 months at Govan gives RN 31 escorts and patrol vessels if the T31 and OPVs are decommissioned at 15 years and the T26/T83 at 25 years. That would be commensurate with a 3% GDP spend. Within 5 years little would change but by the early 2030s things would begin looking very different.

Rather than politicians arguing over the merits of GDP percentage increases the most effective step HMG could take would be to reverse the headcount reductions contained in SDSR 2010. Gradually reinstating defence spending back up to 3% GDP by the end of the next parliament could then commence.

[SW1]

Apart from sustaining the US industrial base at the expense of our own.

What on that list could be procured in the U.K.?

Would that list even be the priority spend areas?

Yes but increasing recruitment and retention would be vital to make it all work.

If HMG decided the threat picture warrants a serious uplift in spending starting with the Army and the RAF is sensible as much can achieved within 5 years.

As for RN what could be achieved within 5 years? IMO it’s a lot less than people think.

• A second batch of T31 could be built at Rosyth but they wouldn’t start to commission until the 2030s.

• More T26 could be ordered but Govan is already fully committed until 2040 anyway. The build schedule could be accelerated to make the most of the new infrastructure but it’s unlikely RN would gain much before 2030.

• H&W Belfast is at capacity with the FSS between 2025 - 2031 so little extra output can be realistically expected.

• Appledore has spare capacity but only for blocks or smaller vessels.

• Regardless of extra investment, SSN and SSBN numbers won’t increase within 5 years.

The other UK fabrication and maintenance yards could build blocks to be integrated at Rosyth and Govan but it would take years to get the process going smoothly. The pace of build could be accelerated at Govan and Rosyth but could the management, workforce and infrastructure cope?

A long term drumbeat of one vessel completed every 12 months at Rosyth and 18 months at Govan gives RN 31 escorts and patrol vessels if the T31 and OPVs are decommissioned at 15 years and the T26/T83 at 25 years. That would be commensurate with a 3% GDP spend. Within 5 years little would change but by the early 2030s things would begin looking very different.

Rather than politicians arguing over the merits of GDP percentage increases the most effective step HMG could take would be to reverse the headcount reductions contained in SDSR 2010. Gradually reinstating defence spending back up to 3% GDP by the end of the next parliament could then commence.

Nearly all of it if you really wanted to but I wouldn’t buy that list.

Depending on how you calculate things current spending is around 2.2-2.4 percent of gdp. If you add half a percent of gdp to that say 2.7-2.9 that would probably cover the personnel and infrastructure renewal expendables needs to make the current force work properly. What ever is left over to get to 3% I’d spend on strategic transport and logistics and information gathering and communications assets.

[Poiuytrewq]

What ever is left over to get to 3% I’d spend on strategic transport and logistics and information gathering and communications assets.

Very commendable but not enough in isolation.

Whilst I don’t agree with these ever increasingly wild suggestions of over £100bn+ per annum for UK defence it is undoubtedly time for Britain to rearm.

Gradually, cost effectively and proportionately perhaps but it’s time to start now.

[topman]

And roof repairs. You wouldn't believe how many buildings in the defence estate leak.

[inch]

How about a true comparison of oranges to oranges, with Cameron/Osbourne sticking nuclear deterrent and pensions to defence budget,we not even spending 2% truth be known, no matter how many times the keep ranting on we spending 2% now , smoke and mirrors and bull ,if they just give that amount back the slight of hand accounting, defence would be in a better place ,think I read we actually spending about 1.45% now in old metrics,so give back the 0.55% first to make it 2% ,then increase, oranges to oranges folks

[topman]

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-defence-i ... s-13064465

[Tempest414]

And roof repairs. You wouldn't believe how many buildings in the defence estate leak.

I would

[Caribbean]

And roof repairs. You wouldn't believe how many buildings in the defence estate leak.

The failure to address basic stuff like that is a powerful demotivator.

No-one looks forward to going to work simply because the office doesn't leak.
Lots of people think "Oh God, another day in that leaky crap-hole, why don't I get a proper job"

How does the saying go? "An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure"?

[SW1]

Two quite fantastic articles in there own right we are entering a period were the political resolve of the west will be tested like never before with probably the worst set of politicians we’ve ever had.

[Poiuytrewq]

Two quite fantastic articles in there own right we are entering a period were the political resolve of the west will be tested like never before with probably the worst set of politicians we’ve ever had.

So what does HMG do now?

Starting to look like the majority of western politicians are in denial.

[SW1]

Two quite fantastic articles in there own right we are entering a period were the political resolve of the west will be tested like never before with probably the worst set of politicians we’ve ever had.

So what does HMG do now?

Starting to look like the majority of western politicians are in denial.

It’s political resolve to remain reboust. We seem to have generated short attention span generation. No one seems capable of doing the hard long grind of delivering things. it’s just catchy pr flip flopping from one sound bite to the next.

Ukraine is the latest example as I mentioned this will be there most dangerous year, because we have elections and an attention span of a fish. If we do no have the industrial capacity to supply them then they will fail and you embolden the dictator.

NATO as an organisation is a 3.5 million people military so as a military contest and Russia its not a contest. But do the politicians have the balls to be robust in the use and implementation not to conceded territory. That’s what scares the Baltic states the most resolve!

I don’t know how that changes I really don’t.

We are in an economic war with dictatorships and we aren’t taking that seriously and politicians are hoping the economic status quo can continue when it can’t.

[Poiuytrewq]

NATO as an organisation is a 3.5 million people military so as a military contest and Russia its not a contest.

This is the reason why so many politicians are not taking the warnings seriously. It’s complacency derived from peace in Europe for a generation.

If the MoD really believe the threat is real and increasing but HMT won’t release more funds then lower tech and more cost effective solutions will have to be found to add mass.

The end result could be a win for all involved including UK PLC.

[SW1]

NATO as an organisation is a 3.5 million people military so as a military contest and Russia its not a contest.

This is the reason why so many politicians are not taking the warnings seriously. It’s complacency derived from peace in Europe for a generation.

If the MoD really believe the threat is real and increasing but HMT won’t release more funds then lower tech and more cost effective solutions will have to be found to add mass.

The end result could be a win for all involved including UK PLC.

This isn’t about more money for the MoD. Nor is it about mass in a nato context, as an alliance it’s has multiple times the mass of Russia. We have built an economy on the pretext of cheap energy from Russia and cheap manufacturing from China which has swelled the coffers of dictatorships.

It is redressing that by investing in national resilience building industrial capacity and transition away from spending in those hostile economies.

It is the political will to ensure we can deploy what we have militarily to ensure the nato border is sacrosanct no matter the consequences.

[topman]

Two quite fantastic articles in there own right we are entering a period were the political resolve of the west will be tested like never before with probably the worst set of politicians we’ve ever had.

So what does HMG do now?

Starting to look like the majority of western politicians are in denial.

It’s political resolve to remain reboust. We seem to have generated short attention span generation. No one seems capable of doing the hard long grind of delivering things. it’s just catchy pr flip flopping from one sound bite to the next.

Ukraine is the latest example as I mentioned this will be there most dangerous year, because we have elections and an attention span of a fish. If we do no have the industrial capacity to supply them then they will fail and you embolden the dictator.

NATO as an organisation is a 3.5 million people military so as a military contest and Russia its not a contest. But do the politicians have the balls to be robust in the use and implementation not to conceded territory. That’s what scares the Baltic states the most resolve!

I don’t know how that changes I really don’t.

We are in an economic war with dictatorships and we aren’t taking that seriously and politicians are hoping the economic status quo can continue when it can’t.

From what I see and hear most politicians aren't interested really in Russia. Its all very internal particularly as there's an election coming. Some of them wouldn't be interested until the Russian got half across W Europe.

[Repulse]

A dose of reality for everyone dreaming of adding new platforms or bits’n’bobs to their favourite existing ones.

[inch]

Think that's just a convenient government plan to get out of hunt spending anymore on defence in the next budget after all the warnings and building criticism from all quarters, typical smoke and mirrors plan by the civil service ,i can't believe how utter crap the mod management and political class are and government ,a total uninspiring pathetic lot ,all colours , there no choice in this next election total waste of space the lot of them

[SW1]

Just for interest and historical context a 2005 report by the NAO of readiness and defence planning assumptions most of this not published for embarrassment and accountability reasons now.

Finding and reasons from the operation telic lessons learned about stock levels, manning, strategic lift, industry resilience, deployable communication 20years on and how much has changed in these areas?

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploa ... 050672.pdf

[sol]

List of vehicles expected to be removed from service by 2030

AS90
Stormer
Warrior
105mm light gun
BV206
Mastiff
Ridgback
Wolfhound
Beach Recovery Vehicle
Heavy Equipment Transporter
Foxhound Protected Patrol Vehicle
Jackal
Coyote
Pinzgauer
Landrover (including WMIK/RWMIK variants)
Quad bike
Wheeled Tanker
Challenger 2
Puma

https://questions-statements.parliament ... 2-08/13689

[Caribbean]

I'll be surprised if they all go out of service by then.
Hopefully the MOD/ Treasury have learned their lesson & they start building warehouse to hold much of this equipment as a wartime reserve, because we clearly can't ramp up production as fast as we did in the 1930s

Edit: Just noticed - looks like the FV432 will still be going strong, then!

[sol]

I'll be surprised if they all go out of service by then.

Well Warrior still might be there after 2030, considering that the last of 623 Boxers are expected to be delivered only by 2032, and there is still not enough infantry version of it to equip all 5 battalions. And I would not be surprised if there are further delays in deliveries of Ajax.

Edit: Just noticed - looks like the FV432 will still be going strong, then!

Why change something that is perfect. BTW Panther is also missing fro the list.

[Caribbean]

Why change something that is perfect.

Indeed - I'm thinking they should just tweak the design for known problems & to remove obsolescent components, then manufacture a "B" version

[Tempest414]

List of vehicles expected to be removed from service by 2030

AS90
Stormer
Warrior
105mm light gun
BV206
Mastiff
Ridgback
Wolfhound
Beach Recovery Vehicle
Heavy Equipment Transporter
Foxhound Protected Patrol Vehicle
Jackal
Coyote
Pinzgauer
Landrover (including WMIK/RWMIK variants)
Quad bike
Wheeled Tanker
Challenger 2
Puma

https://questions-statements.parliament ... 2-08/13689

It is hard to any of these being gone by 2030 without a big push and a lot of money to buy replacements types

[Ian Hall]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-dou ... ince-2018/