General UK Defence Discussion

[Jake1992]

According to ukpublicespending.co.uk the defence budget is at £45.6bn in the 2016/17 year

[Jake1992]

The UKs gdp as off q3 2016 is $2.9tn that converts to roughly £2.3tn
If we are hitting 2% then the defence budget should be around £46bn

[ArmChairCivvy]

No wonder the Defence Committee is working on the "cooking the books" case.

After all, it is their job to see that the priorities agreed to (SDSR process, for example) are being adhered to, both as to the level of the funding (not to be replaced by inclusion of other items) and the allocation of such funding (or any funding, even if it does not match the verbose descriptions of ways and means).

[ArmChairCivvy]

We will do what the USMC decides to do, right?
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2016 ... Newsletter

[inch]

does anybody at all think Hammond will pull anything out of the bag for uk defence tomorrow in the autumn statement ? ie a bit extra funding for something ,a ship etc or anything

[bobp]

does anybody at all think Hammond will pull anything out of the bag for uk defence tomorrow in the autumn statement ? ie a bit extra funding for something ,a ship etc or anything

Sadly I don't. But miracles could happen.

[dmereifield]

FINGERS CROSSED.....

[Caribbean]

I would expect something along the lines of "our new strategy will make everything work wonderfully, so that we can deliver lots more surface combatants.... from 2045 onwards"

[marktigger]

hopefully there will be direction changes like spending more across the UK

[marktigger]

looks like nothing for defence in terms of additional funding.

[dmereifield]

looks like nothing for defence in terms of additional funding.

No sadly, just the additional funds for armed forces and emergency services charities....

[bobp]

He did say that defence spending would be kept at current levels. So no cuts.

[downsizer]

So no cuts.

Ha
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That'll explain why we've had to identify a number of potential savings for next year then! All of which amount to cuts.

[GibMariner]

Looks like the National Shipbuilding Strategy won't be published today after all.

Defence Synergia on the HoC Defence Committee report: http://www.defencesynergia.co.uk/ds-com ... the-fleet/

The House of Commons Defence Select Committee (HCDC) has said in its report – ‘Restoring the Fleet’ – that the Royal Navy (RN) has too few ships and is in danger of reducing their numbers even further should the Ministry Of Defence (MoD) fail to ensure that the proposed new Type 26 and General Purpose Type 31 Frigates (FF), yet to be committed and built, meet the out of service dates of the 13 ageing Type 23 FF they are due to replace from 2023 onwards.

During an interview on the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4, Rear Admiral Chris Parry, was heard to say that there was no national Defence Strategy, politicians were not addressing the long term needs of ‘life after Brexit’, the Armed Forces were unbalanced and that the RN was in danger of being unable and unwilling to fight. Here is yet another report in which the reality of the Royal Navy’s incoherence is being stated. Whether the Government or the MoD will pay the slightest heed to it is, of course, another matter.

It has been said elsewhere that the RN is now a ‘Shop Window’ navy.

The MoD response has been pathetic. The Royal Navy is supposed to “grow” sometime around 2035. That’s in 18 years time. Let’s look at some of the the facts. Of the billions mentioned, almost 1.5bn has been added to the cost of the carrier construction programme by delays enforced by Government in order to make short term savings. These ships should have been completed years ago; even the revised dates of 2016 and 2018 will obviously not be met. Attack Submarine (SSN), Astute, took over a decade to build. By the time boat 7 of the class is completed, it will have taken almost quarter of a century to build these seven submarines. The slow down of construction of the class cost well over £1bn, enough to build an eighth boat.

The designing, re-designing, re-thinking, etc. etc. of frigate sized ships to replace the Batch 3 Type 22s and the Type 23s has been going on since 1998. Now we are told that real progress [as opposed to imaginary progress] in constructing 8 Type 26s will not happen until 2019. Why? And why, also, do frigates dedicated to anti-submarine warfare require to be able to operate special forces? Surely a different, more adaptable and general service class of ships could be bought off the shelf for such purposes. Ironically, the build of Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV)s are lauded in press releases. OPVs are just that: OFFSHORE PATROL VESSELS. Fine for what they have been designed for but, as things stand, those for the RN come at a price for which other countries could build a respectable frigate.

[GibMariner]

A message from the First Sea Lord

Reading the news over the past few days you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Royal Navy had packed up and gone home, leaving Britain undefended, writes Admiral Sir Philip Jones.

The reality is altogether different, and should be judged by action not by commentary. As First Sea Lord, I owe it to our sailors and marines, many of whom are preparing to spend Christmas away from their loved ones, to ensure the country recognises how hard they are working for our island nation.

Today, the Royal Navy has 30 ships and submarines, and over 8000 of our young men and women - regular, reserve and civilian - committed to operations at home and around the world. The Royal Navy continues to fulfil our standing commitments, from supporting British overseas territories in the Caribbean and the Falklands to the Royal Marines’ ongoing support to counter-terrorism at home.

A ballistic missile submarine is currently on patrol deterring state based threats against the UK and our NATO allies, as has been the case 24 hours a day, every day, for the last 47 years.

In Northern Europe and the Baltic, we are responding to the highest level of Russian naval activity since the end of the Cold War. In the Mediterranean and the Aegean, we continue to work alongside our European partners to counter arms-traffickers and people smugglers, and to stem the flow of migrants. Meanwhile in the Gulf are working to protect international shipping in a region which is essential to the UK’s economic security.

Read more here: http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-la ... rd-message

[RetroSicotte]

So basically the usual tactic.

"Yeah it was a difficult decision BUT WE'RE LOOKING INTO OPTIONS"

"For when?"

"Mumble mumble..."

"Will it replace the missile the day it goes out of service?"

"Um...um..."

Deflect and give no assurances. Utterly pathetic excuses from a man who bears such a title.

[dmereifield]

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... sites.html

New investment for airfields and pilot training

[dmereifield]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/brit ... ence-reach

Sir Michael Fallon has confirmed new regional British Defence Staffs (BDS) will be set up in the Gulf, Asia Pacific and West Africa to provide greater focus for the UK’s Defence efforts in these regions.

[bobp]

Sir Michael Fallon has confirmed new regional British Defence Staffs (BDS) will be set up in the Gulf, Asia Pacific and West Africa to provide greater focus for the UK’s Defence efforts in these regions.

These Defence positions will provide jobs for our retired Admirals, Generals and Air Commodores perhaps.

[S M H]

The donkeys as the German staff officers called the top brass. Have pandered to the government line irrespective of there own thoughts to line there own promotion and pension entitlement. If they developed a spine they would be sacrificed by the permanent sectaries and there political masters.

[Lord Jim]

In many threads elsewhere we have discussed current equipment programmes funded under the current Governments vaunted 10 year equipment plan. How may of these do people think will actually delivery real results before 2025 and in what quantities. We still have another SDSR in 2020 to get through as well. From my stand point I am not hopeful of the outcomes and I think any meaningful numbers of kit are going to be kicked still further down the line as the Politicians continue to sprout statements on our capabilities whilst glossing over our woeful capacity.

[ArmChairCivvy]

do people think will actually delivery real results before 2025 and in what quantities.

From the fact that had we kept the course to Force 2020, it would have been delivered in the 2022-24 period. So extrapolate a 3-year shortfall... odes not sound much, until it is turned into a percentage out of 10 (years).

[dmereifield]

Abc123
The point I was trying to make was that it would perhaps be more difficult (not to say impossible) to renege on our commitment in this programme than some of the others you suggested, for the following reasons:

1) Rightly or wrongly, our politicians value our special relationship with the US more highly and won't want to lose face by cutting numbers. Particularly in this case as a Tier 1 partner that has managed to ensure that a large proportion of the components/technology for the F35 is made in UK, and that we wish to ensure that future maintenance work be based in the UK hub (building on the recent announcement)
2) Since others in the programmes you mentioned were cutting numbers it was easier for us to do so, without letting our partners down

So, unless the US cuts F35 orders substantially (entirely possible with the Trump administration), then I imagine we won't be deviating from the script that we intend to buy 138 over the lifetime of the programme.

I make these suggestions merely as an observer with no experience of the aforementioned programmes, our procurement processes nor our collaboration agreements and relationships with said countries.

[ArmChairCivvy]

A good post, D, glad to see someone look "through" the kit "bubble".

Some fundamental principles of which I am not sure where the current Gvmnt stands:

1 Nation state level Realpolitik; Putin is wishing for this option (and not only for us)
- Atlanticism has done well for us, and every time we try "globalism" the other important actors run away from their commitments... we of course follow through with ours (regardless of the cost or changed situations)
2 Multidimensionalism in foreign policy / stability/ security/ defence
- take a simple arithmetic: population growth in Africa (not long back was negative in many countries there, due to AIDS) put together with climate change equals catastrophe there and difficulties for everyone
3 End of the "crusade" to export democracy
- needless to say that the Neocons were not the best informed about the workings of this world; have we seen the back of them?
- the next Administration did not do too well either - trying to apply piecemeal patches, here and there
- and the next?
4 Excessive regionalism
- examples abound all around us
- EU's attempt to bribe Turkey , to stave off a problem of own making, is the latest of these

[ArmChairCivvy]

the kit "bubble"

There are signs that getting real with this, moving away from having so much work "in progress" is starting to happen:
- first, real new money "The Equipment Plan will be allocated £6.4 billion from the newly created Joint
Security Fund"... OK over ten years, but even taking away inflation that is a cool half a bn/ yr
- second, knowing what you are doing instead of walking around in a "candy shop" :
the proportion of the plan not committed to the core programme
has fallen from 8.3% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2016, over the 10-year period of the Plan.