donald_of_tokyo wrote: ↑04 Dec 2022, 13:17
On plan-B.
Plan-A: find a resource to design T83 on time This will deeply depend on what kind of AAW system it will adopt. Remain on Aster world, or go for AEGIS world. Note that, AAW system development costs even more than the ship design cost. If RN accept going with AEGIS, or just "import" France/Italian system, RN only needs ship design. If new UK-included AAW system is needed, UK need to pay for it. And, we know both has no money allocated now (until 2033).
Also, pushing strong for "T83 and new AAW system" may mean T32 banned.
Plan-B: It is highly likely that we shall see delay of T83. If design work starts around 2033, the first hull will be delivered about 8 year later on 2041, I guess. Even in the case of T45, which had Horizon program as a starter, it tool 8 years to delivery and 10 years to be "in service". So, Clyde needs some ships to deliver from 2035-2041, 5-6 years long.
If we try to fill this gap with "more T26", it will be 3 hulls with "2 years drumbeat" (which is 33% longer than the "1.5 years drumbeat of the 8 hulls). Slow build means higher cost, sadly. So, ideas like
Plan-B-option-1: selling 3 T26 B1s to get 3 more batch 3 T26
Plan-B-option-2: selling all 5 T31s to get 3 more batch 3 T26
come in. I think both is "not a bad idea". In view of export, selling all 5 T31 is more easy, I guess.
Plan-B-option-3: Something like River B2 OPVs? As I understand, MOD ordered 5 OPVs to save 3 years. So, to save 5-6 years, we need an amount of order equivalent to 8-10 River B2 OPVs. On 2036, 3 River B1 are 33 years old and would have been gone ("replaced" by T31), and 5 River B2s are 16-18 years old. Selling the later may work, as originally planned for River B1 in 2016, but RN do NOT need 8-10 OPVs.
So, I think a mix of Plan-B-option-1, 2 and 3 shall be sensible. Rosyth? Forget it as an escort builder. Fight with Belfast and Cammel Laird for 4 Point-replacements, 4 MHC-LSV, 1 MROSS (2nd hull), to survive for the day when LPD/LSD replacements will come.
Note that in either case, I forget about T32. With tight budget (as well as man-power), RN do NOT need it. Not saying T32 itself is bad. Just saying, introducing T32 shall force big cuts elsewhere, and I cannot find any.