Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Contains threads on Royal Navy equipment of the past, present and future.
Poiuytrewq
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Poiuytrewq »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 31 Mar 2023, 16:17 MALE from 150-200m flat top is a big capability leap.
It is but is it now actually a necessity for any meaningful kind of Littoral assault? Are MALE drones actually more important for a LRG now than an Apache for a fraction of the cost?

Having a loitering MALE drone launched from a LPH/LHD with a 25 hour endurance and 16 Hellfire is a game changing capability IMO. Having 3 or 4 MALE STOL drones providing overwatch for the strike force ashore and another 3 or 4 STOL Sea Guardian providing ASuW and ASW coverage for the LRG/LSG at sea is totally groundbreaking. The 16 Hellfire maximum load equates to the same approximate weight as 2 NSM or 6 Sea Venom. Amazing potential for an expendable unit in highly attritional battle spaces.

RN continues to have a serious lack of helicopters. Naval MALE STOL drones such as the Mojave or something similar removes this deficiency in one procurement when the technology matures to an acceptable level. That is unlikely to be too far away.
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Ron5
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

All these arguments could be applied to a Swordfish taken out of a museum. Useless for current ASW and only useful for reconn in a zero threat environment.

Chances of this drone detecting a nuclear submarine = zero.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:51Chances of this drone detecting a nuclear submarine = zero.
Why? If they can deploy sonobuoy, and if they can transduce the sonobuoy signal to T26-like ship, then there is nothing different from P-8As sonobuoy operations. MALE drones with ASW option cannot cover as large area as P-8A does, but in the "sonobuoy deployed region", it can be as effective as P-8A, I guess?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by wargame_insomniac »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:56
Ron5 wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:51Chances of this drone detecting a nuclear submarine = zero.
Why? If they can deploy sonobuoy, and if they can transduce the sonobuoy signal to T26-like ship, then there is nothing different from P-8As sonobuoy operations. MALE drones with ASW option cannot cover as large area as P-8A does, but in the "sonobuoy deployed region", it can be as effective as P-8A, I guess?
Surely it is a combination of Frigate +ASW helicopter + ASW drone + P8 aircraft that will give the best combination of coverage. With mixture of time on station versus speed and range.

The Frigates can spend weeks on station, the ASW drones can spend up to 24 hours on station IIRC, the P8 can spend much shorter time on station. But when it comes to speed / range, the P8 will be able to cover the longest range at higher speed.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Scimitar54 »

Not in distant parts, without basing for P8s. Even then, still not if we do not have a sufficient number of them.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Poiuytrewq »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 18:23
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:56
Ron5 wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:51Chances of this drone detecting a nuclear submarine = zero.
Why? If they can deploy sonobuoy, and if they can transduce the sonobuoy signal to T26-like ship, then there is nothing different from P-8As sonobuoy operations. MALE drones with ASW option cannot cover as large area as P-8A does, but in the "sonobuoy deployed region", it can be as effective as P-8A, I guess?
Surely it is a combination of Frigate +ASW helicopter + ASW drone + P8 aircraft that will give the best combination of coverage. With mixture of time on station versus speed and range.

The Frigates can spend weeks on station, the ASW drones can spend up to 24 hours on station IIRC, the P8 can spend much shorter time on station. But when it comes to speed / range, the P8 will be able to cover the longest range at higher speed.
The fundamental problem is that UK can afford virtually zero losses. There is no allowance for any rate of attrition. It’s a peacetime force designed to complete exercises wonderfully well and not go toe to toe with in a peer on peer conflict.

As the defence budget was continually slashed by successive governments the officials in charge assured everyone involved that the UK would never have to fight a conflict alone. Hence the peacetime size of the three services and the minuscule size of the UK’s munitions stockpiles.

A lot has changed in the last 12 months.

Tiny numbers of fantastically expensive platforms sourced through decades long procurement processes are now being shown up for the folly that they always were. Mass matters as does a realistic allocation for attritional loses in a serious conflict.

The next generation of MALE STOL drones will revolutionise naval and littoral combat in what will become an ever more lethal and attritional battle space. The UK should be at the forefront of these new and emerging technologies.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

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donald_of_tokyo wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:56
Ron5 wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 13:51Chances of this drone detecting a nuclear submarine = zero.
Why? If they can deploy sonobuoy, and if they can transduce the sonobuoy signal to T26-like ship, then there is nothing different from P-8As sonobuoy operations. MALE drones with ASW option cannot cover as large area as P-8A does, but in the "sonobuoy deployed region", it can be as effective as P-8A, I guess?
Where do they drop the sonarbouys?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 20:34 The next generation of MALE STOL drones will revolutionise naval and littoral combat in what will become an ever more lethal and attritional battle space.
How will they survive in such environments?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:01 Where do they drop the sonarbouys?
The same place P-8A should have dropped them if a P-8A was available.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:03How will they survive in such environments?
Against long-range SAMs, "as much as a Typhoon can survive" (=both highly likely to be killed).

Against enemy fighters, no way to survive. But, F-35B will shoot back to the enemy fighters in place to revenge. If SM-6 class super-long-range SAM be carried on T45 (Aster-400?), then T45 will kill the enemy fighters. And, in many theater, enemy does NOT have powerful fighter force. I mean, powerful enough to stop F-35B to overwhelm them.

Russia, China? I'm not talking about them. But, a CVF with 24 F35B is a deadly powerful "air force" that not many nation can counter. It is very different from "Invincible CVS and Hermes CV carrying 40-50 SeaHarrier". "24 F25B" is much much more capable than the latter.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by wargame_insomniac »

Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:03
Poiuytrewq wrote: 01 Apr 2023, 20:34 The next generation of MALE STOL drones will revolutionise naval and littoral combat in what will become an ever more lethal and attritional battle space.
How will they survive in such environments?
Firstly are you expecting many Russian SAMs or even Russian Carrier Groups to be operating in the GIUK Gap? Because after all that will be RN's main contribution to ASW operations vs Russian submarines on NATO's northern flank, along with Canada, US and other NATO countries such as Norway and Denmark.

Secondly, surely it is better to lose such an unmanned drone rather than a P8 patrol aircraft or even a RN manned helicopter?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

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donald_of_tokyo wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:13
Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:01 Where do they drop the sonarbouys?
The same place P-8A should have dropped them if a P-8A was available.
Same place as the Merlin that's already being operated by the carrier? That also can dip. And carry Stingrays?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 03 Apr 2023, 13:45
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:13
Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:01 Where do they drop the sonarbouys?
The same place P-8A should have dropped them if a P-8A was available.
Same place as the Merlin that's already being operated by the carrier? That also can dip. And carry Stingrays?
To transfer sonobuoy signals, you need something in the sky. As MALE operation cost per flight hour is much much much lower than that of Merlin, adding MALE-ASW is a big leap.

We always claim there is not enough Merlin. Adding MALE will efficiently relax it.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 03:32
Ron5 wrote: 03 Apr 2023, 13:45
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:13
Ron5 wrote: 02 Apr 2023, 14:01 Where do they drop the sonarbouys?
The same place P-8A should have dropped them if a P-8A was available.
Same place as the Merlin that's already being operated by the carrier? That also can dip. And carry Stingrays?
To transfer sonobuoy signals, you need something in the sky. As MALE operation cost per flight hour is much much much lower than that of Merlin, adding MALE-ASW is a big leap.

We always claim there is not enough Merlin. Adding MALE will efficiently relax it.
Operating anything off a carrier is not in the slightest low cost.

My point is that both Merlin and any drone will have to have a target shown to them. Neither have the ability to find a submarine. A Merlin has the equipment to fix and destroy. A drone, not so much. Plus of course, the Merlin is in service and can operate from a lot more ships than your drone.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 13:19Operating anything off a carrier is not in the slightest low cost.
Not sure. Most of the carrier cost comes from airplane operation costs. And, MALE operation cost is much smaller than Merlin. This is sure.
My point is that both Merlin and any drone will have to have a target shown to them. Neither have the ability to find a submarine.
Also not sure. Merlin operation is, to my understanding, "clearing a specific region" to keep CV safe. The same applies to MALE-ASW. No difference. I am not proposing MALE-ASW only operation, but proposing Merlin and MALE-ASW mixed operation. So, strength of Merlin is still needed. Just MALE will cover the weakness of Merlin and Wildcat. Need for large amount of maintenance load per flight hour.

By the way, who are going to find a submarine?
A Merlin has the equipment to fix and destroy. A drone, not so much. Plus of course, the Merlin is in service and can operate from a lot more ships than your drone.
Yes. So I propose a mix of them.

MALE's strong point is "can stay in the sky for very long period, with much much lower operational cost to do the same with Merlin or Wildcat". Of course, MALE-ASW can take off thier ASW kit, add a tank, and do surface search for longer period when needed. It can also operate from land. Both can be done also with Merlin, but, with much more higher cost.

When countering drone-based war, "very very long endurance at sky" is a capability which is really important. Flying a Merlin, or even a Wildcat, to search cheapish USV with suicide bomb 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and "30 days a month", is a very inefficient way to go.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 15:35 By the way, who are going to find a submarine?
Type 26.

The rest of the arguments for a use for this drone sounds kinda desperate to me: "it might be able to operate from a full size carrier, so let's brainstorm a reason why anyone should"

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 06 Apr 2023, 14:06
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 15:35 By the way, who are going to find a submarine?
Type 26.

The rest of the arguments for a use for this drone sounds kinda desperate to me: "it might be able to operate from a full size carrier, so let's brainstorm a reason why anyone should"
But why not these MALE cover the tasks P-8A are supposed to do? You say P-8As are not needed either?

Putting sonobuoy barrier in some area to suppress enemy subs maneuver, and if subs actually move, will detect them. This is my understanding of P-8A operations. This task is time consuming so not good so much for helicopters. As P-8A number is not enough, and it cannot land on CV, ASW MALE operation will be able to supplement it.

I agree it is a new idea. But, not like you, I think it will work. Multi static sonobuoy ASW operation looks like a reliable and actually used tactics these days.
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by wargame_insomniac »

Ron5 wrote: 06 Apr 2023, 14:06
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 15:35 By the way, who are going to find a submarine?
Type 26.

The rest of the arguments for a use for this drone sounds kinda desperate to me: "it might be able to operate from a full size carrier, so let's brainstorm a reason why anyone should"
Remind how how big an area the GIUK Gap is, spcially if cover outwards to Barents Sea?

Remind me how many T26 will likely be in operational service at any time, AFTER deducting those escorting CSG, LSG and CASD??

It is not just going to be one system to combat Russian submarines. It is going to have to be a combintaion of Frigates, manned helicopters and P8, unmanned UAV and XLUUV. They each have their strengths and weaknesses. Surely it is right to think how we can maximise the pros and minimise the cons of each option?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Repulse »

Agree - a balanced fleet of mixed assets is the only answer.

”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Poiuytrewq »

Lots of good points in this discussion but the one thing that is missing is a realistic rate of attrition.

RN currently has little or no strength in depth.

IMO this needs to be set at 25% to 30% for traditional assets such as ships, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.

The rate of attrition for UAVs will much much higher. Depending on the intensity of the battle space it could be over 50% in the first 24hrs, especially in the Littoral.

That would shred the UK Protector fleet in less than a week.

Personally I cannot see how the LRG/LSG concept is going to work without large numbers of MALE Strike Drones providing overwatch.
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 06 Apr 2023, 15:26
Ron5 wrote: 06 Apr 2023, 14:06
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 15:35 By the way, who are going to find a submarine?
Type 26.

The rest of the arguments for a use for this drone sounds kinda desperate to me: "it might be able to operate from a full size carrier, so let's brainstorm a reason why anyone should"
But why not these MALE cover the tasks P-8A are supposed to do? You say P-8As are not needed either?

Putting sonobuoy barrier in some area to suppress enemy subs maneuver, and if subs actually move, will detect them. This is my understanding of P-8A operations. This task is time consuming so not good so much for helicopters. As P-8A number is not enough, and it cannot land on CV, ASW MALE operation will be able to supplement it.

I agree it is a new idea. But, not like you, I think it will work. Multi static sonobuoy ASW operation looks like a reliable and actually used tactics these days.
Show me that the Mojave can do the work of a P-8.

Tell me how many sonorbuoys you need for your "barrier".

Show me how your multi-static sonarbuoys will find an SSN in the Atlantic.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

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Poiuytrewq wrote: 07 Apr 2023, 11:17 Personally I cannot see how the LRG/LSG concept is going to work without large numbers of MALE Strike Drones providing overwatch
Try imagining a carriers worth of F-35's supporting the amphibs.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Ron5 wrote: 07 Apr 2023, 13:34Show me that the Mojave can do the work of a P-8.
Tell me how many sonorbuoys you need for your "barrier".
Several Moyave will be able to deploy sonobuoy as much as a single P-8A can do. Sure. And, as Moyave is carried on CV, deploying several Moyave around CVTF is easy.
Show me how your multi-static sonarbuoys will find an SSN in the Atlantic.
This is easy.

"As much as P-8A can do".

If Moyave's multi-static sonarbuoys cannot find SSN, P-8A's multi-static sonarbuoys cannot either, because the sonobuoys are the same and the analysis system is the same (because Moyave will transfer the multi-static sonarbuoys data to T26 or land).

As many nations are procuring P-8As, I understand "P-8A's multi-static sonarbuoys" can detect SSNs, at least in some circumstances, with "meaningful" figure of merit.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 07 Apr 2023, 11:17 Lots of good points in this discussion but the one thing that is missing is a realistic rate of attrition.

RN currently has little or no strength in depth.

IMO this needs to be set at 25% to 30% for traditional assets such as ships, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.
RN is now manning 12 escorts out of 17. Actually, as the KIPION frigate is "double manned", RN can man 13 escorts out of 17. 17/13 = 1.31. So, this number perfectly matches with your proposal.

Interesting...

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by wargame_insomniac »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 07 Apr 2023, 16:08
Poiuytrewq wrote: 07 Apr 2023, 11:17 Lots of good points in this discussion but the one thing that is missing is a realistic rate of attrition.

RN currently has little or no strength in depth.

IMO this needs to be set at 25% to 30% for traditional assets such as ships, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.
RN is now manning 12 escorts out of 17. Actually, as the KIPION frigate is "double manned", RN can man 13 escorts out of 17. 17/13 = 1.31. So, this number perfectly matches with your proposal.

Interesting...
That currently reflects the number of T45s undergoing PIP and the remaining number of T23s finishing LIFEX. So, hopefully, both the T26s and T31s should require less time initially in maintence.

The key us then what the RN can do ti improver recruitment and retention. Firstly if they can better sort out servicce accomodation. And secondly maybe the new Frigates will be more appealing for crew to serve on. Hopefully get some benefit for both T26 and T31 being oversized and underarmed.

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