UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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S M H
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by S M H »

Just an of the wall idea if Wee Jimmy Sturgeon gets her whish. We could base the deterrent in Gibraltar The tunnels are there for the support . I suspect the locals would not complain and the Spanish would have something else to complain about.

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Galloglass
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Galloglass »

S M H wrote:Just an of the wall idea if Wee Jimmy Sturgeon gets her whish. We could base the deterrent in Gibraltar The tunnels are there for the support . I suspect the locals would not complain and the Spanish would have something else to complain about.
If Nicola gets her way Northern Ireland will leave too.......Staying in the UK would become impossible.


PS,,,,The Spanish are "the locals" if you're planning to store Nukes in Gibraltar.

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GibMariner
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by GibMariner »

BREXIT: Strategic Consequences – A View from France: https://rusi.org/commentary/brexit-stra ... iew-france

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GibMariner
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by GibMariner »

Galloglass wrote:
S M H wrote:Just an of the wall idea if Wee Jimmy Sturgeon gets her whish. We could base the deterrent in Gibraltar The tunnels are there for the support . I suspect the locals would not complain and the Spanish would have something else to complain about.
If Nicola gets her way Northern Ireland will leave too.......Staying in the UK would become impossible.


PS,,,,The Spanish are "the locals" if you're planning to store Nukes in Gibraltar.
1. The "locals" are not Spanish.
2. Trident can't be relocated to Gibraltar.

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Pseudo
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Pseudo »

Galloglass wrote:If Nicola gets her way Northern Ireland will leave too.......Staying in the UK would become impossible.
Theoretically, depending on the terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU it may be possible for the Irish Common Travel Area to continue with UK and EU border controls 'moved back' to the ports and airports in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The same policy could probably be applied to Gibraltar too. However, I think that it'd be very tricky to negotiate because on the face of it, it would seem to require that the UK remained in certain EU institutions that are part of the four freedoms.

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by arfah »

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by jonas »

Looking at the millions of pounds that we are pouring in the development of Faslane (see link) I had a thought, and it is way off the wall, and may seem ridiculous,but.

If at the end of the day Scotland does force another referendum and wins, would it be beyond the realms of possibility to come to some sort of compromise. Yes I know that the SNP are dedicated to removing Trident from their soil, but given the fact that it is a huge employer of local people, brings millions into the economy, and would devastate the whole area if closed.

I wondered if the answer would be to turn it into a UK Sovereign Base Area, as we have in Cyprus at Akrotiri and dhekelia. Without searching I can't remember how this was acheived, but the circumstances at the time, were far more serious than we are talking about here.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/no-plan ... -scotland/

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

Wouldn't happen. SNP has promised they will "maintain the base for employment" by turning it into the main Scottish fleet base. The SNP voters then immediately went "NOTHING TO LOSE!" and believed them. So they want rid of them and SNP has their "plan" to fool them.

Just try and mention facts like how their "fleet" (and I use that term with utmost looseness) won't support even 10% of the manpower or industrial amount Faslane does now and they'll ignore you and then keep harping the same nonsense anyway.

As always, "Facts don't matter to nats."

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by jonas »

RetroSicotte wrote:Wouldn't happen. SNP has promised they will "maintain the base for employment" by turning it into the main Scottish fleet base. The SNP voters then immediately went "NOTHING TO LOSE!" and believed them. So they want rid of them and SNP has their "plan" to fool them.

Just try and mention facts like how their "fleet" (and I use that term with utmost looseness) won't support even 10% of the manpower or industrial amount Faslane does now and they'll ignore you and then keep harping the same nonsense anyway.

As always, "Facts don't matter to nats."
Of course you are quite right, I just thought it would be nice if we could come to some civilized arrangement. I suppose they would need Faslane to base their 'fleet' what employment it will provide remains as you suggest to be seen. Though it is pretty obvious that many thousands of jobs both directly and indirectly will be lost

I wonder if they will find some reason why the RAF should stay at Lossie, even in an indepenent Scotland. I doubt whether the locals there will be to pleased either to lose their livelyhoods, and they have been moaning ever since the demise of MRA4 that we are not providing them with the security they deservce. No doubt if it suits them they will allow us to fly over their territorial waters.

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WhitestElephant
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by WhitestElephant »

With the black hole in Scotland's budget, I don't see it being able to afford much in the way of a defence force. Any kit the UK armed forces hands over to Scotland would soon find itself in ill repair. The Scottish defence force would simply become an employment scheme, ultimately, rUK would still be responsible for its defence.
Though we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are. - Lord Tennyson (Ulysses)

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

Problem is they'll take manpower with them, and some crucial equipment. Always gonna hurt. Always. I don't think people who voted for this to happen even gave a brief thought to how devastating the infrastructure costs would be to both Scotland and the rest of the UK.

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

Not when I look out the window in Glasgow. :p

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by GastonGlocker »

arfah wrote:Fallon reassures Washington DC.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /87413222/
Good to see. Maybe we can leverage the fabulous Brimstone tech in exchange for xyz....

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by GastonGlocker »

Hahaha!
Reverse Brexit from the repentant colonials :mrgreen:

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by zanahoria »

From the BBC:

Ministry of Defence 'facing extra £700m costs post Brexit'
By Chris Vallance
World at One, BBC Radio 4

The Ministry of Defence is facing extra costs of up to £700m a year following the UK's Brexit vote, experts warn.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says this is due to the fall in sterling where military equipment purchases have been made in US dollars.

After the referendum, the pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 30 years, making imports from the US more expensive.
The MoD said real terms spending on defence was rising year on year.

Prof Trevor Taylor, from the RUSI think tank, told BBC Radio 4's The World at One that the extra costs could lead to a "budget black hole", presenting a serious problem for the UK's defence stance

'Perfect storm'
Sterling has been steadily falling in value as the referendum result and the Bank of England's efforts to shore up the economy have pushed investors into selling the pound.

The former head of the Royal Navy and Labour peer Lord West described the issue as a "perfect storm" for the MoD.

A source with experience of the issue at a high level of government said it could push an already stretched budget "to breaking point".

But another former insider, who did not wish to be named, argued sterling could well recover and the issue was merely a "headache" for the MoD.

Prof Taylor said the UK paid the US about $10 billion a year for defence products.

The MoD, he said, had already committed to buying nine P8 maritime patrol aircraft, 138 F-35B aircrafts and 50 Apache aircraft to replace the existing ones, all from the US.

National priorities
On top of this, the MoD will also have to buy spares and support services for their existing aircraft and defence systems such as Chinook helicopters, Trident missiles and the AWACS surveillance system, he added.

The UK has committed to spending 2% of GDP on defence, a minimum set by Nato.

The chairman of the House of Commons defence select committee, Julian Lewis, a Brexit supporter, said defence had "fallen too far down the scale of national priorities".

Dr Lewis said the 2% of GDP was "nowhere near where we need to be spending" and argued the figure should be more like 3%.

Lord West criticised the government for delaying the purchase of frigates; a decision he said would push up their costs.

The former head of the British Navy said the 2% figure was "a good figure", but that if the UK's GDP shrinks, this would result in a reduced spending figure.

'Headless chickens'
Major Tim Cross, a retired British Army officer who supported the Leave campaign, acknowledged that defence spending overall was "struggling".

But he called for time to be spent assessing the situation post-Brexit, rather than "running around like headless chickens".

In a statement, the MoD said it took "appropriate financial precautions in all its procurement contracts" and "remained committed to the procurement set out in last year's defence review".

Link:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37034337

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by bobp »

zanahoria wrote:The Ministry of Defence is facing extra costs of up to £700m a year following the UK's Brexit vote, experts warn.


Why is a temporary dip in the exchange rate being made to look permanent. This BBC report is biased against Leave, The pound will recover eventually.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

bobp wrote:The pound will recover eventually.
In a scenario where the EU disqualifies the City from being the financial capital for Europe (and our biggest export) and the export losses will have to be made up through knowledge and industrial exports through the new, wonderful trade deals the value of the pound will have to settle in-between the euro and the dollar
- or lower...
- or we can cut imports; now, what could be chopped first?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Sovereignty, and the cost of it, no doubt will come into a sharper focus over the coming years. A commentator on TD pointed to this graph (OK, it is for 30 yrs and ours only cover the next ten)
https://news.usni.org/wp-content/upload ... pdf#page=8
and isn't it funny how "strategic" projects are always placed on top.

Then they don't look like gobbling up the resources of other categories (in this instance, ships). Indeed, there seems to be net growth over the US SSBN years, even a halt for a couple years to make sure the first few are the genuine article, before building plenty more.

In our case, the net growth is questionable, and it would be educating to see the monies reserved for ships and boats in a graph where the Successors are the one egg left by the cuckoo (and the others are slowly being pushed out).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by dmereifield »

The predicted short term economic impacts have been overly pessimistic, as recent data seems to show. Certainly the economy hasn't crashed post the Brexit vote as many had predicted. What actually happens post Brexit remains to be seen, but the economy seems more resiliant than preciously assumed. I'm sure we can some to good trading terms with our friends on the content since it is in most cases mutually advantageous to do so. I therefore believe we will propser outside of the EU, in the medium term.

As the economy seems to be holding up quite well, and as it is widely anticipated that the Chancellor will be easing off the austerity, I'm cautiously optimistic that defence spending might be increased. The Chancellor should be all too aware of the impacts of recent cuts to our armed forces given his previous posts.

Indeed, it behoves May to increase spending to show the rest of the world that we are still intending to play a global role. Further, increasing defence spending and reasserting our commitment to NATO should help to garner support from Eastern European nations during the Brexit negotiations.

Regarding the USD/GBP exchange rate - the pound is creeping back up and will return to a more reasonable level in the medium term. Until then we have substantial foreign reserves to help mitigate the poorer exchange rate.

Hopefully my optimism is not misplaced - we will have a good idea soon enough when the Chancellor delivers the autumn statement

Lastly, Priti Patel seems quite adamant that the foreign aid/development budget be spent more effectively and in the British interest. Might this also help ease the pressure on the defence budget if operational costs for aid and humanitarian relief are implemented a bit more favourably/creatively in respect to the MoD budget?

rec
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by rec »

Defence Synergia give a realistic article on The Royal Navy's prospects, I doubt that the army is much better. The Article 'Royal Navy Revival or sailing into the sunset '

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