UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

For everything else UK defence-related that doesn't fit into any of the sections above.
Spinflight
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Spinflight »

bobp wrote:The pound will recover eventually.
I hope not. Was horribly overvalued before. Every major economy since 2008 has been trying to devalue, be nice if it went down further.

But as usual interesting to see the doomsday predictions were all bunk.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:I'm cautiously optimistic that defence spending might be increased.
Did not happen, but the £200m to kick start SJP prgrm could come under some other heading?
Spinflight wrote:Every major economy since 2008 has been trying to devalue, be nice if it went down further.
- an awful lot more exports would be needed to pay back the foreign debt (solved by taking on new, as long as it is available on reasonable terms... we only need to go back to the beginning of this decade when this was a real worry)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Spinflight
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Spinflight »

Well the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would go up by 60 to 100 basis points after the vote, though in actuality they dropped by more than that. Whereas Europe's bonds generally rose. *cough bailouts*

Might be a few years before we can actually run a surplus but borrowing costs aren't a problem for us atm.

In fact rather than this QE nonsense I'd borrow and do a Keynes with defence spending. Defence infrastructure and housing, Dreadnought, frigates and new tanks. Stuff that will still be relevant in 25 years rather than, for instance, fast pointy jets.

zanahoria
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by zanahoria »

Wasn’t sure where to post this - mods feel free to move to a more appropriate thread.

France replacing Brexit and austerity-battered UK as America's main military partner under Trump, experts say

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 89756.html

Caribbean
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Caribbean »

I'm pretty sure I saw a similar article in the Indy in the middle of last year. Seems to be part of their anti-Brexit/ austerity agenda
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Lord Jim
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Lord Jim »

It may be part of such an agenda, but it does raise a number of valid points, which have been raised time and time again by establishments like RUSI or the Defence Select Committee, but it simple an exercise in banger your head against a brick wall. There are no votes in Defence it is as simple as that and even body bags have failed to change that, except probably for the worse.

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whitelancer
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by whitelancer »

This sort of thing comes up every few years going back as far as I can remember. Frankly I think we get over concerned about our relationship with the US. It gets us drawn into things we should avoid like the invasion of Iraq. The US will always do what it perceives to be in its interest, if that corresponds with what's in the UKs interest that's fine, but if its not we shouldn't follow regardless.

Lord Jim
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Lord Jim »

The important issues raised are why the US may think we are no longer the allies we once were.

SW1
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by SW1 »

Are we now so insecure as a nation we have to continually write waffle about if we are or are not besties with the US.

We big enough and ugly enough to stand up for ourselves and do what’s right for us we don’t need anyone to storekeeper our belly. Comments like this should be laughed off.

Lord Jim
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Lord Jim »

The issues raised led to the conclusion we were no longer classed as the USAs go to ally but that is not the important focus of the article. What it points out is that the UK is not spending enough to maintain all its capabilities nor have the required mass to be able to use them effectively. These are the important points raised in the article.

J. Tattersall

Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by J. Tattersall »

I think that the effect of Brexit will possibly pale compared to the effect puff Coronavirus.

The light at the end of the tunnel however it's that the implications of Brexit, malign state aggression, and our understanding of security post Coronavirus will probably mean that there's going to be a far sharper interest on identifying our national security interests and taking calculated steps to assure them.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

J. Tattersall wrote: the effect of Brexit will possibly pale compared to the effect puff Coronavirus.
J. Tattersall wrote:will probably mean that there's going to be a far sharper interest on identifying our national security interests and taking calculated steps to assure them.
I agree with both of the above. The bad news is that on the macroeconomic level (=ability to pay)
- the first one works mainly one way, i.e we will be starting the race from behind the line
- and the second one we could have been done anytime, not waiting until we are forced to. A follow-on question: how will/ should the policy making engine be modified so as to not to splutter as much (burn the gas, not just the oil for smoke... and mirrors)?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Lord Jim »

It will probably mean more resources will be concentrated in areas such as Cyber, Intelligence gathering, and Counter Terrorism at home rather then more conventional military ones, which means that funding maybe diverted from existing MoD programmes both for procurement of new kit and support of existing kit and personnel.

SW1
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by SW1 »

Absolutely no point worrying about far away adventures if home base is not safe and secure. National security priority no1.

jonas
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

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