UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

For everything else UK defence-related that doesn't fit into any of the sections above.
abc123
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UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

Hi people, I hope that you don't mind opening this thread.

So, IMHO, after BREXIT, Scotland will probably leave the UK in relativly short order. In Northern Ireland old divisions between Protestants and Catholics will flare again ( one for staying in UK/England, other group for leaving the UK ) with new "Troubles" more than likely. UK will shrink in size and in influence. Even the overseas territories ( like Gibraltar ) might ask for independence.

So, what do you think that will be the consequences of BREXIT for British/English Armed Forces?
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

RetroSicotte
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

In the short term, nothing really that I know of.

Long term depends on how things go. I doubt GIbraltar will try to leave (but I remain to be proven wrong by someone more in the know) but Scotland is the biggest immediate worry for the forces. I'll not go into all the detail again and sound like a broken record, but it's the big threat.

Northern Ireland, I wish I knew more on what to say.

marktigger
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by marktigger »

If Northern Ireland has a border poll (another referendum) it'll be interesting you can't rely on the people to deliver the result expected in a referendum.

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

marktigger wrote:If Northern Ireland has a border poll (another referendum) it'll be interesting you can't rely on the people to deliver the result expected in a referendum.

Not so sure about that. Many people there voted yesterday as if the referendum was about leaving the UK/joining Republic of Ireland... It's the N. I. Evereything there has to be seen through that prism...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Reli ... _up_in.png

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ne.svg.png
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

marktigger
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by marktigger »

correct however through that prism the border poll becomes a bit more interesting. I suspect allot of "Natonalists" would vote to stay in the UK
If it was a border poll you could Add North Down to the stay side

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

marktigger wrote:correct however through that prism the border poll becomes a bit more interesting. I suspect allot of "Natonalists" would vote to stay in the UK
If it was a border poll you could Add North Down to the stay side

Off course. But I would say that much of Unionists voted to stay in EU, but just a small number of Republicans voted to leave.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

About Scotland, I would say that voters there can now feel that they are kicked out of Union ( British and European )...
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

Jdam
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by Jdam »

Or once all the hysteria has worn off life continues on as normal.

arfah
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by arfah »

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bobp
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by bobp »

What will happen to the French-UK cooperation on missiles, and also the Future Unmanned vehicles project. UK and France cooperation was always fragile will the relationship continue.

marktigger
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by marktigger »

abc123 wrote:
marktigger wrote:correct however through that prism the border poll becomes a bit more interesting. I suspect allot of "Natonalists" would vote to stay in the UK
If it was a border poll you could Add North Down to the stay side

Off course. But I would say that much of Unionists voted to stay in EU, but just a small number of Republicans voted to leave.
actually the side that has benefitted the most from the EU voted to remain and the side that has benefitted least voted to leave. with North Down voting in line with its age/class profile from the rest of the UK. Considering the DUP was promoting leave and Sein Fein promoting stay your analysis is completely the wrong way round.

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

marktigger wrote:
abc123 wrote:
marktigger wrote:correct however through that prism the border poll becomes a bit more interesting. I suspect allot of "Natonalists" would vote to stay in the UK
If it was a border poll you could Add North Down to the stay side

Off course. But I would say that much of Unionists voted to stay in EU, but just a small number of Republicans voted to leave.
actually the side that has benefitted the most from the EU voted to remain and the side that has benefitted least voted to leave. with North Down voting in line with its age/class profile from the rest of the UK. Considering the DUP was promoting leave and Sein Fein promoting stay your analysis is completely the wrong way round.

How exactly is wrong? I said that Republicans were for remain part of the EU. And I said that a part ( minority but considering how ethnic/religious groups in NI are tied it doesen't need too big number to be over 50% ) of Unionist voters were certainly for remaining in the EU.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

But, let us return to the subject. IF Scotland leaves ( that's about 9% of UKs GDP ) and say that NI remains part of the UK, what will be the prospects of:

a) QE-class carriers

b) Future nuclear detterent?
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

donald_of_tokyo
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Is it a matter of QE/PoW? Anyway, any act will need 2-3 years, and 2 vessels will be mostly done. For its operation cost, losing 9% of GDP is a big issue, I agree. How about man-power? How many Scotish is within the RN? (In Japan, ratio of man in military is biased to less populated local districts).

But, the biggest issue will be Clyde? T26 is in big danger. They need tens of years to be built in number.

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SKB
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by SKB »

Portsmouth naval base is capable of building warships, it recently built sections of the QE Class carriers, Type 45 destroyers, Amazonas/River class OPV's and the Triton experimental trimaran.

The lack of a drydock large enough for QE class refits and maintenance in Portsmouth is a big worry if Scotland were to become independant.

S M H
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by S M H »

The lock gate would have to be replaced as a matter of strategic defence planning on the king George V dock at Southampton should Wee jimmy get her dream. It would prudent to give the dock a repair to provide a emergency dock unless the French put defence above politics.

R686
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by R686 »

SKB wrote:
The lack of a drydock large enough for QE class refits and maintenance in Portsmouth is a big worry if Scotland were to become independant.

Ye not worry, Her Majesty's Australian Government can provide a graving dock of suitable size :D :D

donald_of_tokyo
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

SKB wrote:Portsmouth naval base is capable of building warships, it recently built sections of the QE Class carriers, Type 45 destroyers, Amazonas/River class OPV's and the Triton experimental trimaran.
The lack of a drydock large enough for QE class refits and maintenance in Portsmouth is a big worry if Scotland were to become independant.
Good. I think a big dry-dock is not a big big issue. Yes, it is a bit expensive, but surely "doable".
How about the labors, technicians, engineers? Inviting them from Clyde to Portsmouth? I know there was a manpower in Portsmouth, but now they have gone where? Still there?

RetroSicotte
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

Portsmouth has already been closed down and they haven't built a complete complex ship there in a long long time.

It would be doable, but it'd be bloody expensive. How many frigates are we willing to lose to pay for it? And to pay for moving the entire deterrent base to somewhere when no alternative location has ever been identified?

To keep ignoring how much money it'd cost is beyond digging ones head in the sand.

abc123
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by abc123 »

RetroSicotte wrote:Portsmouth has already been closed down and they haven't built a complete complex ship there in a long long time.

It would be doable, but it'd be bloody expensive. How many frigates are we willing to lose to pay for it? And to pay for moving the entire deterrent base to somewhere when no alternative location has ever been identified?

To keep ignoring how much money it'd cost is beyond digging ones head in the sand.

Well, expensive or not, it will have to be done... Or not- simply don't replace the SSBNs and order ships from someone else...
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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SKB
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by SKB »

Moving the SSBN's to Devonport is the easy bit.
But how exactly do you excavate an underground nuclear mountain base and move it down to Devonport too?!

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WhitestElephant
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by WhitestElephant »

If Scotland leaves, the deterrent will either be based out of the USA, or be disbanded. The costs of relocation to England will be too great.
Though we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are. - Lord Tennyson (Ulysses)

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GibMariner
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by GibMariner »

RetroSicotte wrote:I doubt GIbraltar will try to leave
Current hysteria aside, it isn't even technically possible due to the Treaty of Utrecht (in which Spain ceded Gibraltar to Great Britain in perpetuity). From Article X of the Treaty of Utrecht:
And in case it shall hereafter seem meet to the Crown of Great Britain to grant , sell or by any means to alienate therefrom the propriety of the said town of Gibraltar, it is hereby agreed and concluded that the preference of having the sale shall always be given to the Crown of Spain before any others.
Spain would use this.

FuNsTeR
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by FuNsTeR »

RetroSicotte wrote:Portsmouth has already been closed down and they haven't built a complete complex ship there in a long long time.

It would be doable, but it'd be bloody expensive. How many frigates are we willing to lose to pay for it? And to pay for moving the entire deterrent base to somewhere when no alternative location has ever been identified?

To keep ignoring how much money it'd cost is beyond digging ones head in the sand.
if the government does not plan now then yes it will be expensive, the next PM needs to invest in Portsmouth and prioritise the investment using all the cash they had planned for clyde and faslane, we simply cannot throw away money on defence projects in Scotland when it looks like they will be leaving the UK within the next two years

RetroSicotte
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Re: UK Defence Forces, after BREXIT

Post by RetroSicotte »

If you don't support though, then it's throwing it away for sure.

The great thing is though, SNP are gonna push for it even if Faslane wasn't there. It's just a convinient way to get the "no nukes" brigade on board.

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