Future UK Maritime Patrol Options

[downsizer]

If it is a "lease" it isn't anywhere remotely similar to the abortion PFI that provides voyager.

[ArmChairCivvy]

absolutely right, on a rational basis.

It is a long practice, however, with military a/c for the manufacturer to tie in a prospective purchase by offering a lease in the interim on advantageous terms. E.g. Saab has done it on something like half a dozen occasions, often delivering newer models and taking the older ones back in "part payment".

In this case it may also have to do with the tricky MPA/MMA dimension. Getting the right spec and an export waiver for something that normally would not go to anywhere else than to US forces may be better achieved (in 5 to 7 years from now) when the RAF has an open competition card to play.

A lease alternative can be politically expedient, too, as a smoke and mirrors devise to get an entangled decision web unravelling. Australia's Super Hornet deal soon turned from a lease to an outright purchase, but presenting something that is absolutely necessary as a stopgap at least helped to regain the momentum in decision making: "Defence minister Brendan Nelson's office confirms that Australia has asked the USN for data on the purchase or lease of one squadron of two-seat Block 2 Super Hornets"... that was in 2006; somehow seems like yesterday. And tomorrow will arrive in this matter soon (like in 2020 or 2022, the latest).

[Gabriele]

The Sunday Times of tomorrow apparently runs a story saying that the MOD has "dumped" the plan to procure P-8 Poseidon.

[ArmChairCivvy]

when the RAF has an open competition card to play

Let's wait until tomorrow to see if it is "for now" or "for good".

[rec]

The Sunday Times article on the P8 or part of it http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/new ... 2015_10_31

[Jdam]

If this is true is there enough time to shop about for something else before the defence review?

[Gabriele]

If that news is correct, the UK is out of the MPA business, end of the story.

[Pseudo]

If true that's incredibly disappointing news since the necessity of an MPA capability has been so clearly demonstrated over the past five years.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Brinkmanship was invented in America, but others can play the game, too.

Wait and see...

[downsizer]

I said ages ago, it would be the P8 or nothing. That was the options put forward for the review.

As others have said, if that article is true, we are gone with MPA.

However, I'd take it with a pinch of salt. All kinds of rumours floated around last time, and are doing so this time. Largely because options from all ends of the spectrum are presented to ministers for them to choose.

[jonas]

This story seems more than a little strange to me, after the years that we been involved in P8, and the discussions that we know have taken place on the UK acquisation of them that we now find them 'Expensive'
We will have known for a while down to the last dollar what they are going to cost, so I will wait until something a bit more reliable than this article is forthcoming.

Let's see what the MOD blog 'defence in the media' comes up with, they normaly do a rundown on media defence reports. If there is a deathly silence ?

[Gabriele]

If there is a god, whatever it is, i pray it spares us from minister-induced half-arsing. It can only end in a humiiliating waste of money.

But seriously. I'm doubting of the story. Even the MOD can't be SO bad that mr. Fallon has waken up to the costs only now, can it...? This thing has been going on for YEARS.

[arfah]

We have less than 30 days before we know for certain.

The last sentence of the article is probably the only definite piece of information.

[jonas]

As I said previously, all those things mentioned in the article such as costs etc, have been known for months if not years. Fallon has been in his post long enough to have made any such decision long before now.

I wonder who the Sunday Times 'sources' are this time.

[bobp]

Seems a bit strange perhaps the government are having a rethink following the tax credit fiasco we have had recently. Is money that tight when they waste billions in overseas aid?

[Pseudo]

The article mentions the option of the C-295MPA and modified C-130's. If the plan was to station the P-8's at Waddington, surely that wouldn't be an option for more short legged alternatives. Which would seem to mean at minimum a single squadron based at Lossiemouth, but ideally a second squadron based somewhere like St. Mawgan. Then haven't you also lost the possibility of replacing the Sentinel capability by procuring AAS for the P-8?

To me this sounds like it would be a penny wise and pound foolish decision.

[Geoff_B]

Its Fallon, he's a bit of a lame duck compared with Hammond, Hammond was the one driving the Boeing option, Fallon's obviously scared of Osbourne and has listened to the creeps eddling their £1 shop option of poor 2nd tier options.

They should really have changed the focus of the threat potential however in the article, instead of saying we can't protect the carriers they should have said were going to save billions as the Trident replacement programme is pointless as we can't protect our Vangaurds and their planned successors from Russian subs as they try to reach their patrol zones - now that would give the Tories the willies and have Ivan Corbyn and the Scottish Nationals cheering for joy

[jonas]

From the mod media blog, and this is the best your going to get from them :-

Aircraft Procurement

"

The Sunday Times carries an article speculating on the potential progress of a contract for submarine-hunting P-8 Poseidon aircraft. Our position is here:

The MOD continues to assess future requirements as part of the work we are doing on the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR). No decisions have been taken.

https://modmedia.blog.gov.uk/2015/11/01 ... mber-2015/

[Ron5]

Its Fallon, he's a bit of a lame duck compared with Hammond, Hammond was the one driving the Boeing option, Fallon's obviously scared of Osbourne and has listened to the creeps eddling their £1 shop option of poor 2nd tier options.

They should really have changed the focus of the threat potential however in the article, instead of saying we can't protect the carriers they should have said were going to save billions as the Trident replacement programme is pointless as we can't protect our Vangaurds and their planned successors from Russian subs as they try to reach their patrol zones - now that would give the Tories the willies and have Ivan Corbyn and the Scottish Nationals cheering for joy

If you make them sound so important they'll cut a carrier or frigate (or two) or fj squadron to pay for them.

I wonder over how many years is the Sunday Times 2 billion. Spread over 10 sounds a lot cheaper than over 1.

[ArmChairCivvy]

procuring AAS for the P-8?

Agree with those saying that the price (roughly) has been known for long enough. So is it the US commitment to AAS, the timescales for getting it, ITAR (what else is there?) that is muddying the waters. The MoD has been quite definitive in statements wanting an MMA (in the end, if not in the interim).

[Jdam]

I wonder over how many years is the Sunday Times 2 billion. Spread over 10 sounds a lot cheaper than over 1.

Must be over ten.

How realistic is that 2 billion? even if we buy 10 P-8's at a £100 million each that's a billion more for infrastructure, training and integration of weapons I assume

[jonas]

OMG please don't say they are going for the P1, or I am going to have to eat my hat.

[marktigger]

I'm sure we'll find out in the next few weeks

[Pseudo]

OMG please don't say they are going for the P1, or I am going to have to eat my hat.

Don't worry, you can always do a Paddy Ashdown if the P-1 is selected. Since we'll install some British equipment on it and call it the Vigilant or something you should be able to get out of your sombrero scoffing by claiming that the modifications mean it's not really a P-1.

[marktigger]

obviously the document hasn't been locked down yet so there will be loads of leaks and posturing to squeeze any last concession out of the other services, the govt and most importantly the treasury.