Ukrainian Forces

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Phil Sayers
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Phil Sayers »

Those drones are proven war-winners in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it is one thing to operate basic, affordable UCAVS in situations where the enemy does not have air supremacy or a strong AD network and entirely another thing to intend to operate them against Russia and / or Russian backed forces in close proximity to Russia itself. I think Ukraine has already used them at least once in the Donbass (triggering protests from Russia) but personally I cannot see them as being a particularly sensible investment in the situation Ukraine now faces.

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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Phil Sayers wrote: 07 Feb 2022, 17:56 Those drones are proven war-winners in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it is one thing to operate basic, affordable UCAVS in situations where the enemy does not have air supremacy or a strong AD network and entirely another thing to intend to operate them against Russia and / or Russian backed forces in close proximity to Russia itself. I think Ukraine has already used them at least once in the Donbass (triggering protests from Russia) but personally I cannot see them as being a particularly sensible investment in the situation Ukraine now faces.
For fighting in the Donbass region however they're an ideal system. They aren't particularly survivable and that's reflected in their price tag and capabilities, but they offer Ukraine a pretty cheap ISR tool and a means of delivering ordnance onto priority targets. The seperatists could shoot them down, but then they'd be able to shoot down anything Ukraine can put in the air, may as well make it a relatively cheap unmanned system. Their old Soviet-era air force isn't equipped to fight a proper air campaign and moreover Russia wouldn't allow it to happen, but TB-2 straddles a very delicate line.

They have to be able to deter Russia but not too deterring. That's what TB-2 represents, it gives them a militarily useful capability over seperatists inside the country, but not a decisive military edge. Same thing as the UK donating all those NLAWs, they aren't a decisive counter to Russian armour, but they could do some damage to complicate an offensive.

Realistically they don't have the budget to buy systems to decisively counter Russia. If they did, that'd probably give Russia the 'justification' to invade under a pretext of self defence, halting NATO expansion etc.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Lord Jim »

One question I have is where did all those NLAWs come from? Have we emptied our inventory to supply them leaving us short?

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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Lord Jim wrote: 08 Feb 2022, 01:12 One question I have is where did all those NLAWs come from? Have we emptied our inventory to supply them leaving us short?
I'm rummaging around the brain for this so some of the details might be off, but from memory we had purchased something like 20,000 back in the early 2000s. You have to wonder if they've started to approach their shelf life making it that much easier to offload them to an ally which might have a need to use them.

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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Lord Jim wrote: 08 Feb 2022, 01:12 One question I have is where did all those NLAWs come from? Have we emptied our inventory to supply them leaving us short?
We bought between 14,000 and 20,000 NLAW in the initial buy. They're not seen on live fire exercises that often so we haven't expended more than a couple of hundred in training. Deliveries started in Dcember 2009, they should have plenty of shelf-life yet (believe the requirement was for 20 years storage).

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Lord Jim »

But they are one of the best weapons we have and with tensions ramping up , we will probably carry out more live firing and so on. Mind you is isn't that expensive a weapon and more could be bought, you never know if the Ukrainians like it they might actually order more, and if seen to be effective in use may attract more exports. Its only real rival is the Spike-SR, and it certainly beats the AT-4 in most capabilities. Our Scimitars even have a home made brackets to hold one on the back of the turret in cast they bump into something the Rarden cannot handle.

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Timmymagic »

Lord Jim wrote: 10 Feb 2022, 15:51 Its only real rival is the Spike-SR, and it certainly beats the AT-4 in most capabilities.
Spike-SR is a very different weapon, more capable than NLAW, but vastly more expensive. It's essentially a less complicated Javelin in many ways utilising the missiles seeker head instead of a CLU and not having Javelin's diving top attack profile, its more between NLAW and Javelin (but leaning more towards Javelin). The only real NLAW competitor was the Predator SRAW. That lost out to NLAW in the UK competition (in its Kestrel guise) but was procured in small numbers by the USMC. To be honest I'm not sure if they've still got any in stock...wouldn't be shocked if they transferred the remaining to Ukraine as they will have been close to their expiry date.
Lord Jim wrote: 10 Feb 2022, 15:51 Mind you is isn't that expensive a weapon and more could be bought
Unfortunately I suspect the Thales Belfast production line would need to be re-established. it might take soe time...hopefully someone in D & ES has checked with Thales UK if they've still got all of the equipment necessary to do so....Think Saab might still have their line running, or may hae only recently shut it after fulfilling the Swiss order.

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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Timmymagic wrote: 11 Feb 2022, 22:22 Spike-SR is a very different weapon, more capable than NLAW, but vastly more expensive. It's essentially a less complicated Javelin in many ways utilising the missiles seeker head instead of a CLU and not having Javelin's diving top attack profile, its more between NLAW and Javelin (but leaning more towards Javelin).
Agreed, but in the above it is implicit that NLAW would not have top-attack; which it does. The economies come from it not being a missile, but a rocket relying on PLOS
"The missile uses predicted line of sight, PLOS, for homing on targets. The missile may engage a target by direct attack, DA, or overflight top attack, OTA."
- it is easy to get the users to lose their rag by explaining what a dictionary definition of a missile is
- the fact that Saab, too, calls it a missile (in that quote above) is of course pure marketing
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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ArmChairCivvy wrote: 25 Feb 2022, 21:19
- it is easy to get the users to lose their rag by explaining what a dictionary definition of a missile is
What is the dictionary definition of a missile?

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Someone was wideawake :yawn: :D .

Google answered as follows: a weapon that is self-propelled, directed by remote control/ seeker mechanism

Predictive line of sight is a calculator that relies on (short-ish) tracking of target and once you fire the flight path is already predetermined. Let's work the reverse: missiles are powered like rockets, but...?
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by mr.fred »

Considering that several dictionaries also define a thrown stone as a missile, I don’t think it’s quite so clear cut.

In military terms there seems to be a distinction between a rocket and a missile by the degree of guidance and NLAW is in a bit of a grey area, but I wouldn’t think its particularly important to get precious about it.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

mr.fred wrote: 25 Feb 2022, 22:27 I wouldn’t think its particularly important to get precious about it.
As for the time and moment, it is more important to note that a Russian tank was taken out within the boundaries of the Ukrainian capital with an NLAW (stones were tried in Prague, but to not much effect... may be it was the spring weather playing up)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Phil Sayers wrote: 07 Feb 2022, 17:56 personally I cannot see them as being a particularly sensible investment in the situation Ukraine now faces.
Agree about he hunter-killer aspect of drones, but the artillery missiles that Ukraine does possess need to be targeted with something (a fixed fighter base was the first target). There has been a notable emphasis on Russia's part on taking airfields... presumably to bring in airlanded troops to the 'rear'.
- only one transport plane so far has been downed by Ukraine's AD
- so the Toschkas remain (and are being saved for use as?) an effective remedy while the planes are landing; again , airfields as such are expansive areas and whatever intelligence is offered from other parties, it is doubtful whether it is/ will be in enough 'real time' to be effective for targeting
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by TheLoneRanger »

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/po ... 022-02-26/

I still dont understand why this took sooo long...

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Other sources have 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stingers; Scholz himself announcing
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Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by dmereifield »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 26 Feb 2022, 18:51 Other sources have 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stingers; Scholz himself announcing
Fantastic, finally...but when will it get there and will it be too late? The 5000 helmets took 4 weeks to deliver (arriving, yesterday, I think). If they don't get there in days it will be too late, right?

Fingers crossed, if we can get enough materiel into Kiev in the next few days, they might just be able hold it. Putin will really be in the shit then

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This kind of stuff is air-transportable and a lot of people are a bit ashamed of themselves so things will now start to happen. The above quantities were from Bundeswehr ware houses; Germany has also released re-export licenses at least for the Netherlands and Estonia (the former was already in a post by @loneranger).

6 fighters and 2 attack helicopters downed with an inventory of 400 (available) SAMs... to me suggests timid use of airpower so far by the Russians. If they pull all the stops, also the inventory of SAMs they are facing will have tripled or so (the US has not released quantities, just $$$ that could equate to anything 'supplied @ a discount' ;) )
... the trouble is, Kiev and Kharkov could soon be cut off, so the 'last mile' will be problematic

But the type of weaponry is just the kind that will force the advancing force check every corner. What initially bothered me was the mobilisation only starting like a day into the war. But by now it is clear that the mobilised forces would not have been capable of manoueuvre warfare out in the open, but rather would have been slaughtered. Of course now they are mainly in the cities, all still held, so much more usefully deployed.
- the third thing is that the highways seem to be freely usable by Russian forces. A massive mining operation should have been planned - not just blowing up bridges in the last minute
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by dmereifield »

Thanks for the informative post. I'm in awe of the courage shown by the Ukranians and pray that they can hold out long enough for Putin to agree to a ceasefire or settlement of some kind. I have no idea what that looks like.

I'm amazed the the Ukrainian airforce is still operating. Presumably, they can transport the munitions from the drop off points at the border to Kiev?

I hope we are throwing everything we've got at it, behind the scenes, to provide what we can.

Are there likely to be any special forces deployed- off the books? Volunteers? Some twitter chat seemed to suggest so.

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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What is special is that Russian TOS units are headed for:
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear...
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station (Ukrainian: Запорізька АЕС) in Enerhodar, Ukraine, is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and among the top 10

This could be a coincidence as the location is on the lower Dniepr, but are we one step closer to Putin going from applying the Kissinger/ Nixon 'mad man approach' over to acting as clinically mad
... fire some thermobarics and as there are six reactors there, you are sure to hit one. The line has always been that 'Ukraine is too close to Moscow for comfort'!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Lord Jim »

I wonder if "Little Green Men", originating from Western Europe and other NATO countries may appear in Ukraine at some point? Surely Russia cannot object to that happening :D

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

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ArmChairCivvy wrote: 26 Feb 2022, 20:35
- the third thing is that the highways seem to be freely usable by Russian forces. A massive mining operation should have been planned - not just blowing up bridges in the last minute
The lack of military strategy or thinking by the UAF has been shocking - they did not "prepare for the worst and hope for the best". I dont know of many other countries who would see the sort of force buildout around their borders as we have seen and not have made preparations.

The quick dash to Kyiv by the Ruskies shows how little the UAF thought about defense. It was given that Kyiv was going to be a target.. A given - yet, the Russians made it to the gates of Kyiv so quickly. The bulk of the Russan forces are still some 20/30km away(as per UK MOD) - but to have such 'light' forces so close so quickly is willful neglect.

The President of Ukraine is no hero - but a clown - he made a career as a clown and acted like one when he was given the presidency and defence of his country - a clown who point blank refused to recognise the danger his country was in and refused to act early or to prepare.

Just look at this twitter - that looks like half of the Mig29 force destroyed in 1 strike. No dispersion of aircraft around the airfield - no decoys deployed ( and of course no HAS ). No nothing. How can this be explained ?



The NLAW are proving to be quite effective and are worth their weight in gold right now and for the next stage of the war - what Ukraine needs.

- Does NATO have any Mig29's or Su25's from the ex-Soviet countries we can "ship" over to Ukraine ?

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by Defiance »

TheLoneRanger wrote: 27 Feb 2022, 12:10
- Does NATO have any Mig29's or Su25's from the ex-Soviet countries we can "ship" over to Ukraine ?
TheWarZone is reporting that Ukraine has been resupplied with air-to-air weapons which have probably come from Poland. 3 Ukrainian Il-76s have sorted to Poland recently and they've got Su-22/MiG-29 in their inventory.

Maybe they'll ship over some surplus airframes if they have any ...

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by dmereifield »

TheLoneRanger wrote: 27 Feb 2022, 12:10
ArmChairCivvy wrote: 26 Feb 2022, 20:35
- the third thing is that the highways seem to be freely usable by Russian forces. A massive mining operation should have been planned - not just blowing up bridges in the last minute
The lack of military strategy or thinking by the UAF has been shocking - they did not "prepare for the worst and hope for the best". I dont know of many other countries who would see the sort of force buildout around their borders as we have seen and not have made preparations.

The quick dash to Kyiv by the Ruskies shows how little the UAF thought about defense. It was given that Kyiv was going to be a target.. A given - yet, the Russians made it to the gates of Kyiv so quickly. The bulk of the Russan forces are still some 20/30km away(as per UK MOD) - but to have such 'light' forces so close so quickly is willful neglect.

The President of Ukraine is no hero - but a clown - he made a career as a clown and acted like one when he was given the presidency and defence of his country - a clown who point blank refused to recognise the danger his country was in and refused to act early or to prepare.

Just look at this twitter - that looks like half of the Mig29 force destroyed in 1 strike. No dispersion of aircraft around the airfield - no decoys deployed ( and of course no HAS ). No nothing. How can this be explained ?



The NLAW are proving to be quite effective and are worth their weight in gold right now and for the next stage of the war - what Ukraine needs.

- Does NATO have any Mig29's or Su25's from the ex-Soviet countries we can "ship" over to Ukraine ?
The man we see holding his country together, refusing US invitation for evacuation, standing tall against the Russian invasion is no clown. He is playing a weak hand exceptionally well.

I'm sure there are plenty of tactical errors that could have been avoided (to my lay perspective) but you seem to think that preparations for defence whilst running the country over the last few months, trying to avoid mass panic and an economic collapse, is an easy task. I imagine it's not.

According to apparently well informed twitter users, those Mig29's were mothballed airframes, not part of the operational fleet.
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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by dmereifield »

Is it not also possible that this was also part of the plan? Allow the spear head to make some ground and then attack the softer supply chain that follows?

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Re: Ukrainian Forces

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Defence in depth and a dispersed model for battle... you don't want to go head to head, in open country, against at least twice as many formations as you have (and may be 5 times the fire power, beyond the 'infantry mile').
- notable, though, that cities have not been lost. But we hear v little about what is going on either side of the lower Dnjepr. Though ports do not count for much when the balance of forces at sea is so uneven. However, if a truce is called, it could be a goal of the Russians to hold the areas along the river (never mind that Kiev is on it) and cut the East of the country from the West (of it). Could stand there for ever and rotate forces, to keep the threat of restarting the offensive alive and everyone guessing
- that's the military angle. Right now Ukraine does not need to worry about the economy being strangled (as has been the case for a long time ) as loadsa money is going to be coming their way. No Lend-Lease but rather Use it... and we understand if you lose it ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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