Pakistan

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TheLoneRanger
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Re: Pakistan

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Lord Jim wrote: 18 Feb 2022, 07:45 Not sure if these match the Rafale, but will worry the Indian SYU-30MKIs. Problem is Pakistan will always lose in the number game, though India is not doing itself any favours by its fragmented replacement programme with many MiG 21 Bison still in service. Pakistan with its purchase of the JF-17 to replace its aging Mirage and Chinese MiG fleets and the J-10 as its high end platform as made a dramatic improvement in its combat capabilities. It now need a modern airborne Radar/ISTAR capability as a force multiplier.
Comparisons of military jet aircraft is difficult - but if we consider the air-to-air which tends to be rather significant in the South Asian context(the politics and optics place a lot of significance on that capability - ie the loss of the Su30MKI and Mig21 after being shot down by the PAF F16s killed the political will in India to escalate and respond to the shoot downs and they ended up restorting to threaten to use cruise missile strikes which was countered aswell etc ).

The J10C has a bigger AESA radar(1200 TR modules ) than the Rafale ( 840 TR modules) - ie more T&R modules - but of course power output, type ie GaN / GaA, is unknown as is the sophistication of the software algorithms for signal processing and anti-jamming capabilities behind the T&R modules, and the PL15 has worried the Americans enough to go and make the AIM-260 to counter it - so it is a question of how the J10C radar+missile+self defence capabilities compare to the Rafale Radar+Meteor+self defence capabilities in the air-to-air mode and which is what PAF is after. The question is, does the PL15 allow the PAF to have a first shot advantage? Probably does. If a Rafale pilot wants to duke it out with a J10C to try and get it within the Range/NEZ of the meteor, rather than evading .. that would be a touch call that will put him at the mercy of how "good Spectra is - or if it is over-hyped PR spin .. )

PAF has taken a deep look at the Rafale with a view to purchase more than a decade and half and them some (presentations were given by Dassault to PAF aswell as technical information), so they are aware of its capabilities and they recently exercised with Qatari Rafales to bring themselves up to speed.

Pakistan is effectively starting the end of the Journey of the F16 platform within the PAF - a platform that was never allowed to achieve it's "full potential" in the PAF and a lesson that PAF has learnt and will also affect its future decisions quite significantly. PAF was been playing a waiting game on hoping it could procure more F16s, but that wait is now at an end for sure - that is what the J10 signifies.

For the Rafale vs J10 equation - it comes down to this one simple fact - who has more $ to throw into military R&D - France or China - and which out of the two will be the military leader in the field in the field of military aviation - my money would be on China and that is probably what Pakistan thinks aswell.

The J10C ( of which they are looking to procure an initial 60 units ) will establish the ecosystem to support this new platform and Pakistan can then look towards the J10D and J10E - China will continue to innovate this platform for sure. It will grow and mature faster than the Rafale simply down to $ spend and the increasing R&D capability of China - and with each step - PAF will procure new more advanced variants of it and also modernise existing variants it owns.

Both the JF17 series, and the J10 series now allow the PAF un-restricted capabilities to do what it wants and needs with its platform without horrible end-user agreements on where and how you can use them and the potential for advancements of the platform free of political interferrence from "first" and "third-parties".

By the end of 2022 - PAF will induct the 11 JF17 Block IIIs ( with AESA + PL15 ) - 25 J10Cs( with AESA + PL15s - interior minister said they will all fly in March flypast - though that may be questionable - the intent seems to be delivery by this year) and the remaining 24 JF17 Block IIIs which will be manufactured over 2022 which is the output capacity of PAC Kamra. That makes 60 new AESA equipped fighters with the PL15s ( and backed by the largest AEW&C fleet in South Asia ) versus 36 Rafales (with a smaller force of AEW&Cs in the IAF ). PAF is sitting pretty now as it is and will be sitting even more pretty by the end of 2022.

Note, the JF17 Block II's are more than capable of taking on IAFs fleet of Su30MKI's alone with the SD10s as they went toe to toe with them in Operation Swift Retort - there is no need to consider the J17 Block IIIs as a counter for the Su30MKI's - PAF took care of that problem many moons ago.

Question - when people say - that the J10C does not match the Rafale. Is that statement for air-to-air capabilities(one where i think they will trade blows on an even "enough" basis ) or air-to-ground/strike(where Rafale has the edge due to more hardpoints and payload) or anti-sea (where the J10 has a wider range of anti-ship missiles - probably has the advantage - but range of the J10 wont be the same).

https://www.ft.com/content/b505d504-644 ... 33db837c9a

Comparing aircraft is difficult is it is an apples to oranges comparison, but for PAF it really is the air-to-air qualities it was looking for recently, and for those, do you think it can match the Rafale, or is the Rafale still superior ? I am curious..

TheLoneRanger
Member
Posts: 331
Joined: 01 Jul 2020, 19:15
United Kingdom

Re: Pakistan

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Pakistan inducts the J10C into its inventory as of the 11th March 2022.



The PL15s and AESA radar of the J10C should allow it to go toe to toe with the Rafales in Air-to-Air mode allowing the PAF to keep its first shot advantage against the IAF.

( full ceremony here, bits of it a bit cringey mind you : )

Initial procurement of about 60 units - with plans to go to 100+ eventually.

Combined with the largest AEW&C fleet in South Asia - IAF is in for a tough time.

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