Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Contains threads on Royal Navy equipment of the past, present and future.

What will be the result of the 'Lighter Frigate' programme?

Programme cancelled, RN down to 14 escorts
52
10%
Programme cancelled & replaced with GP T26
14
3%
A number of heavy OPVs spun as "frigates"
127
25%
An LCS-like modular ship
22
4%
A modernised Type 23
24
5%
A Type 26-lite
71
14%
Less than 5 hulls
22
4%
5 hulls
71
14%
More than 5 hulls
103
20%
 
Total votes: 506

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by wargame_insomniac »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 16:12
Tempest414 wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:33Also to drop in but with nothing in the Mk-41 VLS goes for both type 31 and type 26 so there for dose not affect the unit price of ether ship
No objection. I think people tend to think things are easy with T31 and difficult with T26, or vice versa. No, both types cost "so-so", and both have a capability roughly proportional to their cost.

Modern escort is NOT cheap.

And, anyway, uparming and/or adding one or two hulls of T26 and T31, individually, will be much more cost efficient now than hoping any T32. It is dictated by man-power limit.
Agree on both counts. Those arguing "What about the cost of filling those Mk41 VLS on T31?" are conveniently glossing over the comparable cost of filling the Mk41 VLS on T26.

Is it worth the expnse of fitting Mk 41 VLS to either T26 and / or T31?? We won't know that until we know for sure until the RN confirm what missiles they are buying to fill them. But I do think adding the Mk41 VLS (which is used by pretty much every allied navy apart from French / Italian) does add to the RN's flexibility and cross-operability, able to benefit a shared logistics if necessary.

I also don't see the point in arguing incessantly anout the costs of T26 versus T31. Countless threads on this forum are FULL of complaints about MOD / UK Armed Forces "Gold-Plating" potential acquisitions, and thus only able to afford a much reduced number. For one with T31, the MOD definitely did NOT "Gold-Plate" them, agreeing to include in the upfront fixed-term contract only what we could actually afford at that time after ordering T26.

Now I have consistently accused the T31 of being under armed and underequippd for their size. But they were initially ordered in a less tense global environment and what we could afford at that time. Thankfully the RN does seem to reaise that can no longer afford them to be as underarmed / underequipped given the current and inceasing global tensions. I believe that if the T31 receive a decent sonar, and with the rumouredu pgrade of both NSM Canisters, and installing Mk41 VLS / or increasing the number of CAMM in mushroom VLS, these all make the T31 a very useful GP Frigate with some bite. They won't be as good as T45 at AAW missions, or as good as T26 at ASW missions, but they will add different capabilities to other RN escorts.

I would still like to add both 2*T25 AND 2-3*T31 if the RN get increased Budget, whether from cancelling T32 or from another source of funfsds to be abe to afford the acquuition cost, monthly runnng costs and additiona crew.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:50 No they couldn't and the price of T26 isn't £800m
Yes it is (and it includes a slow build rate):

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-l ... es-ordered

Yes they could have easily afforded 10. Total bill for T31 plus T26 will be above £10bn:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -frigates/
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

Repulse wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:08
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:50 No they couldn't and the price of T26 isn't £800m
Yes it is (and it includes a slow build rate):

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-l ... es-ordered

Yes they could have easily afforded 10. Total bill for T31 plus T26 will be above £10bn:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -frigates/
The Batch 2's are 840 million with second hands parts as said from type 23's and why have you dragged up a news story from 2015 which brings nothing to the table
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

Tempest414 wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:35
Repulse wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:08
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:50 No they couldn't and the price of T26 isn't £800m
Yes it is (and it includes a slow build rate):

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-l ... es-ordered

Yes they could have easily afforded 10. Total bill for T31 plus T26 will be above £10bn:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -frigates/
The Batch 2's are 840 million with second hands parts as said from type 23's and why have you dragged up a news story from 2015 which brings nothing to the table
Seeing the decision was made back in 2015 to cut the T26 programme it’s very relevant.

Do the maths on the £10bn for 10 T26s. What’s more the Batch 2 unit cost could have been much lower if the government had ordered in one go. Now we have two yards, one will either go bust spectacularly or we will be saddled with high costs due to slow drumbeats - I’ll be hoping for the former and the yard that has a proven track record for delivery warships.
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Poiuytrewq »

Can we agree on this?

- One T83 equals two T26

- One T26 equals two T31

- One T31 equals two HiCap OPVs

- One HiCap OPV equals two Standard OPVs

Simple?

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

Repulse wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:08
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:50 No they couldn't and the price of T26 isn't £800m
Yes it is (and it includes a slow build rate):

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-l ... es-ordered

Yes they could have easily afforded 10. Total bill for T31 plus T26 will be above £10bn:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -frigates/
That article is from eight years ago there has been an awful lot of inflation since then, plus covid and Ukraine costs too. Was it £300 odd million extra BAE wanted for the first batch and is all the recent inflationary costs included in the £4.2 bln for the second batch.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:45 Can we agree on this?

- One T83 equals two T26

- One T26 equals two T31

- One T31 equals two HiCap OPVs

- One HiCap OPV equals two Standard OPVs

Simple?
No I'd rather T83 was closer to T26 price otherwise we aren't getting six to replace the T45s and I'd suggest a T26 is closer to the cost of three T31 rather than 2.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Poiuytrewq »

tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 21:07 No….
Adapt it then, see if a consensus emerges.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by new guy »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:45 Can we agree on this?

- One T83 equals two T26

- One T26 equals two T31

- One T31 equals two HiCap OPVs

- One HiCap OPV equals two Standard OPVs

Simple?
What is this supposed to mean?

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 21:06
That article is from eight years ago there has been an awful lot of inflation since then, plus covid and Ukraine costs too. Was it £300 odd million extra BAE wanted for the first batch and is all the recent inflationary costs included in the £4.2 bln for the second batch.
Just facts.

GBP inflation
- 2015 to 2022 inflation is 21%. This means £800M in 2015 is £968M in 2022 (when the 5 T26B2 were ordered).

- T31 contract was in 2019, T26B2 in 2022. Inflation is 12.9%. So, £2Bn in 2019 is £2.26Bn in 2022. When comparing T26B2's unit cost to T31's "average" cost (which is NOT so "fair" but in some sense is, *1), it is £840M vs £450M.

- T26B1 contract was on 2017. T26B2 in 2022. £3.7Bn in 2017 amounts to £4.35Bn in 2022. Adding £4.2Bn for T26B2, it totals £8.5Bn. In addition, there are many other "added costs" to T26s, which is in debate. Including inflation correction to all of these costs will be a mess. Anyway, I understand T26's "average" cost is exceeding £1Bn per unit in 2022 GBP.

*1: By the way, this comparison works when someone (like Repulse-san) is talking about "what if RN sticked to T26, and did not ordered T31?". In this case, money is money. So, T31's program cost (£2.25Bn in 2022) will give RN 2.7-more T26. Considering further "learning curve" and "not enforcing slow build", I'm pretty sure it will earn 3 more T26.

Note that T31 build is cheap partly because it is fast = not thinking about next order (actually, betting for toooooo-much optimistic "T32" dream). But we are where we are.


Enjoy; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetar ... calculator

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 01:58
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 21:06
That article is from eight years ago there has been an awful lot of inflation since then, plus covid and Ukraine costs too. Was it £300 odd million extra BAE wanted for the first batch and is all the recent inflationary costs included in the £4.2 bln for the second batch.
Just facts.

GBP inflation
- 2015 to 2022 inflation is 21%. This means £800M in 2015 is £968M in 2022 (when the 5 T26B2 were ordered).

- T31 contract was in 2019, T26B2 in 2022. Inflation is 12.9%. So, £2Bn in 2019 is £2.26Bn in 2022. When comparing T26B2's unit cost to T31's "average" cost (which is NOT so "fair" but in some sense is, *1), it is £840M vs £450M.

- T26B1 contract was on 2017. T26B2 in 2022. £3.7Bn in 2017 amounts to £4.35Bn in 2022. Adding £4.2Bn for T26B2, it totals £8.5Bn. In addition, there are many other "added costs" to T26s, which is in debate. Including inflation correction to all of these costs will be a mess. Anyway, I understand T26's "average" cost is exceeding £1Bn per unit in 2022 GBP.

*1: By the way, this comparison works when someone (like Repulse-san) is talking about "what if RN sticked to T26, and did not ordered T31?". In this case, money is money. So, T31's program cost (£2.25Bn in 2022) will give RN 2.7-more T26. Considering further "learning curve" and "not enforcing slow build", I'm pretty sure it will earn 3 more T26.

Note that T31 build is cheap partly because it is fast = not thinking about next order (actually, betting for toooooo-much optimistic "T32" dream). But we are where we are.


Enjoy; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetar ... calculator
The inflation figures you have used are based on CPI, Consumer Price Index. Inflation in defence is different figures published by MOD show inflation of 40.5% for the twelve years 2004 to 2016 CPI for the same period was lower at 30.5%

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

tomuk wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 05:11 The inflation figures you have used are based on CPI, Consumer Price Index. Inflation in defence is different figures published by MOD show inflation of 40.5% for the twelve years 2004 to 2016 CPI for the same period was lower at 30.5%
Thanks. CPI is just one of the indices. "Inflation in defense" includes many aspects. CPI also includes many aspects.

Both has a meaning, I think. And, as you stated, defense inflation tends to be larger than CPI, so basing on CPI is more "modest" estimation.

Anyway, the £840M unit cost of T26, as of 2022, is (significantly) CHEAPER than the £800M figure announced in 2015. I think this is fact.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by SD67 »

Whichever way you cut it the cost ratio is 2 to 1.
As others have said program cost average per unit of T26 is over a billion. Even with NSM and Mk41 the T31 will be 500m tops.
That’s a fair trade IMHO especially when considering
- The need for GP replacements quickly as T23 are falling apart
- BAE would not have sharpened the T26 price without competition
- Industrial / soft power benefits of getting back into the affordable frigate export business

What to put in MK41? That’s an interesting one. CAMM-ER? Ikara v2.0 ( Some kind of rocket boosted Stingray replacement ?)
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

Thanks @Donaldsan
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 01:58 … I understand T26's "average" cost is exceeding £1Bn per unit in 2022 GBP.
I agree, but what has been spent has been spent, and the point I was making was the incremental cost of adding new units to the order. I accept that the unit cost is £840mn for the five on order, but as we all know adding more units and increasing the build tempo (to the optimal point of probably 16-18 months) decreases the unit cost.
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 01:58*1: By the way, this comparison works when someone (like Repulse-san) is talking about "what if RN sticked to T26, and did not ordered T31?". In this case, money is money. So, T31's program cost (£2.25Bn in 2022) will give RN 2.7-more T26. Considering further "learning curve" and "not enforcing slow build", I'm pretty sure it will earn 3 more T26.
Absolutely yes.
donald_of_tokyo wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 01:58Note that T31 build is cheap partly because it is fast = not thinking about next order (actually, betting for toooooo-much optimistic "T32" dream). But we are where we are.
Whilst I do not expect the T32 to be officially cancelled in the review, it’s too convenient politically, it will be absent from any detail apart from vague 2030s aspirations. We will then have another yard hungry for work and nothing to give it without taking money from other higher priority projects - this will sadly like to be the case as Labour will want the Scottish vote. More T31s over the T83 anyone?!!
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Poiuytrewq »

new guy wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 22:09 What is this supposed to mean?
Relative price comparison between classes

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by SD67 »

The whole point of the Rosyth facility IMHO was to be what we used to call a “flex plant “. The RN shouldn’t need to keep it fed 100% of the time, 50%-60% should be enough. Batch 1 River replacement, FACs for Ukraine, T31 blocks for Poland maybe a couple of T31 for NZ .
Or the obvious one - simply build blocks for the Clyde. They are not far apart, I’m pretty sure when it comes to bashing steel Babcocks will undercut Bae
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Poiuytrewq »

Repulse wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 08:03 ….taking money from other higher priority projects - this will sadly like to be the case as Labour will want the Scottish vote. More T31s over the T83 anyone?!!
If RN orders another three T31’s the entire class will be completed at Rosyth by around 2032. The T83 programme will start cutting steel at Govan around 2035 at the very earliest.

Even if ten T31’s were ultimately built the entire class would have been handed over to RN before the steel in cut on the first T83.

The timelines for the two classes are completely separate as are the in-year budgets. Why would one affect the other?

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 08:43 The timelines for the two classes are completely separate as are the in-year budgets. Why would one affect the other?
Money and crew. Plus what happens after those 3 are completed?
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 01:58
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 21:06
That article is from eight years ago there has been an awful lot of inflation since then, plus covid and Ukraine costs too. Was it £300 odd million extra BAE wanted for the first batch and is all the recent inflationary costs included in the £4.2 bln for the second batch.
Just facts.

GBP inflation
- 2015 to 2022 inflation is 21%. This means £800M in 2015 is £968M in 2022 (when the 5 T26B2 were ordered).

- T31 contract was in 2019, T26B2 in 2022. Inflation is 12.9%. So, £2Bn in 2019 is £2.26Bn in 2022. When comparing T26B2's unit cost to T31's "average" cost (which is NOT so "fair" but in some sense is, *1), it is £840M vs £450M.

- T26B1 contract was on 2017. T26B2 in 2022. £3.7Bn in 2017 amounts to £4.35Bn in 2022. Adding £4.2Bn for T26B2, it totals £8.5Bn. In addition, there are many other "added costs" to T26s, which is in debate. Including inflation correction to all of these costs will be a mess. Anyway, I understand T26's "average" cost is exceeding £1Bn per unit in 2022 GBP.

*1: By the way, this comparison works when someone (like Repulse-san) is talking about "what if RN sticked to T26, and did not ordered T31?". In this case, money is money. So, T31's program cost (£2.25Bn in 2022) will give RN 2.7-more T26. Considering further "learning curve" and "not enforcing slow build", I'm pretty sure it will earn 3 more T26.

Note that T31 build is cheap partly because it is fast = not thinking about next order (actually, betting for toooooo-much optimistic "T32" dream). But we are where we are.


Enjoy; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetar ... calculator
Once again you are using Type 26 unit per ship costs v type 31 full program costs here as the type 26 batch 2 don't have any other program costs

to get a real inflation cost you have to use the type 31 Babcock contract of 1.25 billion not 2 billion so your figure of 450 million is way way off

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

Repulse wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:43
Tempest414 wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:35
Repulse wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:08
tomuk wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 15:50 No they couldn't and the price of T26 isn't £800m
Yes it is (and it includes a slow build rate):

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-l ... es-ordered

Yes they could have easily afforded 10. Total bill for T31 plus T26 will be above £10bn:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... -frigates/
The Batch 2's are 840 million with second hands parts as said from type 23's and why have you dragged up a news story from 2015 which brings nothing to the table
Seeing the decision was made back in 2015 to cut the T26 programme it’s very relevant.

Do the maths on the £10bn for 10 T26s. What’s more the Batch 2 unit cost could have been much lower if the government had ordered in one go. Now we have two yards, one will either go bust spectacularly or we will be saddled with high costs due to slow drumbeats - I’ll be hoping for the former and the yard that has a proven track record for delivery warships.
But what we know is that since 2015 type 26 contracts for 8 ships total 8.987 billion now I would agree that it might of been different if BAE had been allow to sort there own build rate but not as big as you would like to think as they would still have balance build speed of T-26 against start of T-83

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

Why wouldn’t you use the T31 full cost? It’s an off the shelf design with some more tweaks, but no innovation. It’s the best number to use for the cost of an additional T31 unit. It depends what we are discussing - if we are discussing decisions made at different points in time then the numbers are different (you can’t change what happened before).

The build drumbeat of a T26 has been slowed to one every two years, whereas the T31 is approx 12-14 months between each ship. There’s a significant cost factor of slowing the T26 build because the number of units were reduced, which could be partially solved by ordering more. This situation hasn’t happened with the T31, but it will very soon.
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by RichardIC »

Poiuytrewq wrote: 08 Jun 2023, 19:45 Can we agree on this?

- One T83 equals two T26
You have no blind clue what a T83 equals. Absolutely none.

And there's no certainty it will even happen.

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Repulse »

Tempest414 wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 09:08 But what we know is that since 2015 type 26 contracts for 8 ships total 8.987 billion now I would agree that it might of been different if BAE had been allow to sort there own build rate but not as big as you would like to think as they would still have balance build speed of T-26 against start of T-83
13 ships over 16 years is very different to 8 over 16 years - all the fixed costs of running a yard and keeps skilled workforce in place is not trivial and need to be spread over the number of units being built.
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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

Repulse wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 09:15
Tempest414 wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 09:08 But what we know is that since 2015 type 26 contracts for 8 ships total 8.987 billion now I would agree that it might of been different if BAE had been allow to sort there own build rate but not as big as you would like to think as they would still have balance build speed of T-26 against start of T-83
13 ships over 16 years is very different to 8 over 16 years - all the fixed costs of running a yard and keeps skilled workforce in place is not trivial and need to be spread over the number of units being built.
I agree but none of this effects design costs what we know is that in 2015 the cost of 13 type 26 was deemed to 11.5 billion we all know this would have gone up to 12 or 12.5 billion it always does

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Re: Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

Repulse wrote: 09 Jun 2023, 09:11 Why wouldn’t you use the T31 full cost? It’s an off the shelf design with some more tweaks, but no innovation. It’s the best number to use for the cost of an additional T31 unit. It depends what we are discussing - if we are discussing decisions made at different points in time then the numbers are different (you can’t change what happened before).

The build drumbeat of a T26 has been slowed to one every two years, whereas the T31 is approx 12-14 months between each ship. There’s a significant cost factor of slowing the T26 build because the number of units were reduced, which could be partially solved by ordering more. This situation hasn’t happened with the T31, but it will very soon.
No its not and you know its not type 31 unit price as is = 268 million including GFE the full program costs include the competition ( of which the other 2 runners got nearly 50 million ) the redesign work the introduction to service for first class the on land training centre and so and so on

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