donald_of_tokyo wrote: ↑04 May 2023, 16:49
Poiuytrewq wrote: ↑04 May 2023, 16:25Might be an opportunity for RN to amend the contract if four T31 and six T32 is preferred to 5 of each.
For what purpose? ……Five T31 build is "on track", but just lack money.
Can’t agree.
The T31 programme is in trouble.
If the extra costs are purely inflationary then it’s no problem but that’s not clear at this point.
The contractor and the client are now having to enter into a DRP to resolve a dispute over an extra £100m or 8% of the contracted value.
That’s without a single hull to show for it. The long lead items may have been ordered but Babcocks shareholders won’t permit the company to build Frigates at a loss. The T31 only makes sense if they are really cheap and every time the price rises the rationale for building them reduces.
T32 is far away, not even the concept being determined.
Rosyth needs to cut the steel for the T32 in 2026 or the drumbeat will slow and then stop. It isn’t very far away at all. Either a stopgap must be found or the T32 needs to be built. The RB1 replacements (if any) are the obvious answer if the T32 is not ready.
If the T32 design is ready and Babcock maintain the T31 pace RN need to increase the headcount by a large margin over the next 5 years.
If you need it fast, which is important is clear. Support T31.
RN needs the T31s but is the headcount really there to crew 6 Destroyers and 13 Frigates? We know they can’t crew them and we now know the T23s probably aren’t going to last as long as hoped. What is a T31 worth to RN if the costs keep rising exponentially? If a T31 hull and a T32 hull starts to enter the same ballpark before GFE and only so many vessels can be crewed where is the priority?
Could an OPV do what was originally envisaged for the T31 thus freeing up the crew for the T45s, T26s, T32s and CVFs?
It’s a question of limited resources and prioritising the essentials.
And, long order list is very important for the shipyard to be able to order everything with the best timing. Ordering in small batches will just make it more expensive.
No argument but it’s worth remembering that HMT is primarily concerned with in-year budgets. That’s the priority for the bean counters.
The T31 programme won’t be allowed to fail but if the T32 program is RNs ultimate priority then cutting the T31 class to 4 hulls isn’t the end of the world. If the T32 design is ready by 2026 and the funding and headcount is secured then I don’t see any problem in letting inflation eat one of the T31 hulls. The long lead items can be transferred to an export version.