Labour Party

[SKB]

Since when do armies 'mutiny' ? Isn't that solely a naval term? Rebellion or coup would be more like it.

[marktigger]

mutiny can be any service

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutiny#20th_century

[Pseudo]

Does the general in question realise that any attempted coup would likely result in pretty draconian restrictions being placed on the military to ensure that they wouldn't be able to undermine another civilian government?

[The Armchair Soldier]

Jeremy Corbyn: 'We will vote with the SNP on Trident'

The new leader of the Labour Party says he is prepared to work with the SNP against the renewal of Trident.

Jeremy Corbyn said he was opposed to nuclear weapons and said the money to replace them could be better spent to the advantage of the wider economy.

Speaking to BBC Scotland's David Porter, he said the issue would be debated at his party's annual conference which takes place at the end of September.

Stewart Hosie, deputy leader of the SNP, welcomed the news, but said Mr Corbyn had "a substantial challenge" in persuading his party conference and his shadow cabinet of its merits.

Read More: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34359430

[SKB]

Corbyn suffers blow as Trident vote is rejected at Labour Party Conference in Brighton
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... conference

[marktigger]

so according to the leaders speech Labour are conducting a review of their defence policy. But trident will cost 25% of the defence budget!

[The Armchair Soldier]

Today we face very different threats from the time of the Cold War which ended 30 years ago.

That’s why I have asked our shadow defence secretary Maria Eagle to lead a debate and review about how we deliver that strong, modern effective protection for the people of Britain.

I've made my own position on one issue clear.

I don’t believe £100bn on a new generation of nuclear weapons taking up a quarter of our defence budget is the right way forward.

That's what Jeremy Corbyn had to say about Defence during his conference speech.

[Pseudo]

By my reckoning his £100bn is quarter of the defence budget phrasing might suggest he plans to cut the defence budget to under £15bn a year.

[ArmChairCivvy]

By my reckoning his £100bn is quarter of the defence budget phrasing might suggest he plans to cut the defence budget to under £15bn a year.

Heh-he, his defence team does not know what the £ 100bn, timewise, relates to.

The simpletons took £38bn x 10 (bcz the Eq. Plan covers 10 yrs), got 380 and a hundred is a quarter of that.

[Tiny Toy]

Heh-he, his defence team does not know what the £ 100bn, timewise, relates to.

The simpletons took £38bn x 10 (bcz the Eq. Plan covers 10 yrs), got 380 and a hundred is a quarter of that.

Believe me, this figure does not come from the Labour defence team. It's been bandied around by the Stop The War Coalition for several years and all the left-leaning political leaders (SNP/Plaid/Greens) have just accepted it verbatim as an article of faith.

[The Armchair Soldier]

Oops.

[ArmChairCivvy]

TT,
Isn't there quite a bit of continuity between those mentioned bodies (now that the Labour defence team has been revamped... the old one even used to invite me to cocks)?

[Tiny Toy]

TT,
Isn't there quite a bit of continuity between those mentioned bodies (now that the Labour defence team has been revamped... the old one even used to invite me to cocks)?

Corbyn's been heavily involved with it forever. However of those actually on the defence team:
- Kevan Jones was the one who said that Corbyn's involvement with Stop The War was embarrassing.
- Don Touhig and Maria Eagle consistently voted in favour of Blair's mandate to wage the Iraq war, and Eagle is explicitly pro Trident.
- Toby Perkins voted for air strikes against IS.
- Only Rachael Maskell seems to support any of the goals of Stop the War, being an anti-Trident campaigner. I don't know if she's a member.

[ArmChairCivvy]

TT, thanks for the update about who is on the team. Perhaps there is no interface (yet?) between them and the Leader? The thrust of my post was that the percentage is not 25%, but rather 5% of the defence budget, at today's level, over the years the "new" deterrent would be in service; for the detail I quote my post of today from TD (was surprised to find people there who have been mislead, and blindly repeat the argument):
" [continue to]propagate the numbers?
If the defence budget is 40 bn in round terms and the boats will be 40 bn over [what?] period of time[still] to be decided, I do not get "Secondly with this project about to eat between 25% (£9bn) to half of defence budget for the next 15yrs.
I do not advocate J Corbyn's views on an awful lot of issues" etc...

15 years only takes us to the 2040; a year when making decisions about the next missile (useless w/o a warhead, so about the two, really) will come up. Now you [ that is anyone; not directed at TT] can get an idea how the dividing ( for getting a percentage) should be constructed.

[The Armchair Soldier]

Shadow Defence Secretary, Maria Eagle's speech at the Labour Party conference:

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1300514 ... rty-annual

[Tiny Toy]

ACC: as far as I'm aware the numbers are constructed around a 40 year operational lifespan, not 15 years.

There are two different ways to arrive at the £100bn figure. First is based on MOD's stated intent to spend 5-6% of defence budget on running the nuclear deterrent overall, including procurement etc. So massively ballpark plus the defence budget might vary widely. However current Conservative policy is to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP, so let's base it on that: GDP of £2678bn, 2% of that is £53bn defence budget, 5% (the lower estimate) of that is £2.65bn, multiplied by 40 years, is £106bn.

The other way to calculate it is to break it down. Cost to build 4 Successor boats: MOD says £17.5bn to £23.4bn. Cost to run them for 40 years: I don't know, but CND estimated it at £57bn and MOD was unable to refute that figure. They also added decommissioning costs of £13bn and some other minor additions which are disputed by MOD (e.g. replacement of warheads, which is already covered under the updated Polaris agreement). The high end of that is not far off the £100bn figure as well.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Now, please give me the 25%
... that is the thing I disputed. You have to have two factors (and some coherent assumptions) to get to a percentage

[Pseudo]

Now, please give me the 25%
... that is the thing I disputed. You have to have two factors (and some coherent assumptions) to get to a percentage

Simple. Cut the defence budget to £10bn a year, then £100bn over 40 years is quarter of the budget.

Frankly, I wouldn't get too excited by what Corbyn is saying. Tom Watson will probably be leading the party as interim leader by the time MP's return from the Christmas recess and anyway if the tories have any sense they'll set the contract up with punitive cancellation clauses that will make cancellation as expensive as completing the programme.

[SKB]

As i said at the beginning of this thread, I can't see Corbyn remaining as Labour's leader long enough to still be leader at the next Queen's Speech

[ArmChairCivvy]

There is no "like" button here, but pseudo sure earned it

[SKB]

Jeremy Corbyn snubs the Queen, saying he is too busy to be sworn in to the Privy Council



More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... uncil.html

[Pseudo]

In fairness, it took Cameron the best part of three months to get around to being sworn in. This shouldn't really be much of a story in itself, but of course it plays in to the narrative of Corbyn's anti-establishment republicanism so he would have had to show Tony Blair like keenness to bend the knee for this not to be a story.

[marktigger]

so the leader and deputy leader are going to be easy prey now

[marktigger]

oh look at the new shadow defence minister

[Pseudo]

oh look at the new shadow defence minister

Quite. Appointing a unilateralist to the shadow defence brief on the same day that North Korea claims to have detonated it's first fusion bomb certainly doesn't lack for symbolism. Then again, appointing a shadow Europe minister who's only experience seems to amount to mostly being absent for votes on it is little better.