Scotland (Political Thread)

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Scottish Independence?

Political Independence (Retain Monarchy)
6
7%
Full Independence (No Monarchy or Commonwealth)
13
16%
Stay In The United Kingdom
61
75%
Emigrate To Ireland
1
1%
 
Total votes: 81

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Interesting that the other players are now starting to ask SNP about "where is your prospectus?" Not just what 11 (?) points/ steps process wise have been put onto the ticket

End of fiscal transfer
-> underlying fiscal balance v much in breach of EU rules
AND not only that, but an ensueing credit rating that will make covering the deficit (at the current levels of spending) so expensive that it will 'just snowball'

Add to that a hard border for 60% of the exports
... and you will need a Houdini to get out of this bind.
OR :lol: a snake oil salesman; we have seen some, lately ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

TheLoneRanger
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

clinch wrote:Westminster should agree to a second referendum but on the condition that the divorce settlement is agreed first. This agreement should include Scotland accepting a Barnett formula share of the UK's debts.
Agreed. And NON of the assets.

We left the EU with NO share of the assets, so Scotland should also get all of the debts and liabilities (and no assets) which all most be paid in £ ( so the Scots should own the Foreign Exchange risk with whatever currency they want in the intermediate phase before they go to the EU mothership, eg . The template for seperation already now exists with the recent EU seperation. We must not run the risk of carrying the consequences of any decisions the scots make in the future ....

If that must mean that we have to have a border to protect from the freedom of movement from the EU, then so be it ..

Additionally, just to make sure, the Scots understand they are leaving the Union.. there must be NO Common Travel Area arrangements for Scotland( ie similar to what we had to have with Ireland due to Northern Ireland). There is no similar historical issues that warrant that and the rUK can really do with a clean break from Scotland.

As a side note, if NI joins Republic of Ireland at some point in the future, then the Common Travel Area arrangement for the island of Ireland and the UK must also come to an end. It will be the perfect time to bring an end to the 6-counties issue.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Oops!

By Lucy Fisher, Deputy Political Editor @ The Torygraph
3 February 2021 • 9:55pm

Boris Johnson’s chief adviser on the Union has left his role following a heated row over the Government’s strategy to counter Scottish nationalism
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

To add to the above, SkyNews has asked for views (I presume from within the Conservatives @Westminster) and from the many I found this one striking, after the normal good work but not creating enough - in a muffled criticism of other players? - buy in.

"It allows time between now and May to set up a longer-term strategy on this and think bigger than Scotland."
- IMB was an example, in many ways, of not thinking 'bigger' than of one issue at a time
- namely, as a side issue all repatriated powers were hoarded to Westminster
An act of pouring petrol on a fire that was only smouldering :?:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Saw a good comment on SNP's strategy (some others have used it, too, even quite recently... but naming names would diverge):
- find a target group to blame for your country's ills
- lose no opportunity to berate and vilify them
- bankrupt your country ( at least at the planned level of deficit financing) if not tomorrow
- pass laws with not that much prospect of improving citizens' lives etc, etc

A bit of a dilemma (for the revamped strategy that Boris has commissioned) is that if you happen to be the above mentioned 'target group', how do you open a useful dialogue?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by Pseudo »

It looks like the Salmond situation is opening a few divisions in the SNP. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he doesn't try to wrest back control of the party.

TheLoneRanger
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Saw Question Time on thursday, when one of the guests was trying to explain to a Scottish Nationalist that the "horrible deal" that Boris has signed which affects 1/5th of the Scottish economy now, would affect 4/5th of the Scottish economy if Scotland joined the EU was met with a blanket "no, that is not how Scotland will trade" .. How exactly does the SNP think it's relationship with the UK will be if it is part of the EU if not through the "horrible trade deal that is devastating the Scottish economy ????".

We now have a very precise imperical formula for trade flows between the UK and the EU... and if they don't like it now, they most certainly wont like it if they are part of the EU.

How that is being dismissed as "propaganda", I will never understand the logic of ...

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

TheLoneRanger wrote:will never understand the logic of ...
What logic? Folks don't think things through... too busy trying to grab the power
- we have just seen a great 'field experiment'
- that will run and run (sorry! A broken record got inserted :) )
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SW1 »

Looks like Sturgeon and the SNP government in about as big a mess as watergate




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SKB
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SKB »

SNP "win" Scottish election, but without getting a majority, they were one seat short.

SNP thanked their "Scots" voters, who included children aged 16-17 - who had a vote, foreign non-British passport holders - who had a vote, and temporary refugees staying in the UK - who also had a vote.

:roll:

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

SKB wrote: included children aged 16-17 who had a vote, foreign non-British passport holders who had a vote, and temporary refugees staying in the UK who also had a vote.
assimilation in action?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Scimitar54
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by Scimitar54 »

What is next? Enfranchisement of babies (or maybe even those not yet born) in order to try and achieve the result that “the Party” requires, The parents (or legal custodians) being given extra votes for their offspring!
Scandalous, this “devolution experiment” should be ended right now.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Brexit divided not just the country but the nations - within and in-between
- tell me where you can find the hand brake; one can only say that the old slogan about being' careful about what one wishes for' covers these unintended consequences v nicely

Anyway, I'm happy about this 'one seat short' outcome
- how many % would that decisive difference be ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

S M H
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by S M H »

Having lived in Invergordon with friends and family who were nationalist. Having experiencing the higher spending per person that Scotland gets. If the ms Fish wants independance then let them have it. As I expect Scotland disproportionate government spending is only exeded by the South East. Will dry up. This allows the free prescriptions and higher spending. Not forgetting the placing of warship building in Scotland that has been protected politically.

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by Digger22 »

I think Scottish independence is inevitable. This has been driven by the Few, and now seems to be infectious.
I agree that negotiations should begin before any 2nd referendum, to give Scott's a fully informed choice, knowing what independence would actually look like. I also believe that a third option of Devo max should be part of it. I'm sure she who must not be named would not agree, but any Court action would not be able to overturn such conditions as they are reasonable in my opinion.

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SW1 »

We’ve all had quite enough of constitutional referendums to last a life time. There should be no more for the foreseeable. In 2014 if was a once in a generation undertaking but as the NATS didn’t like the result we need another one. There is no basis for this other than they don’t respect the result of the last one so why would they respect the result of the next one if they don’t get the result they like?

Get on with doing what your elected to a Scottish parliament to do run the services of Scotland.

S M H
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by S M H »

The thing is if you bang on about independance the population will not notice that the train wreck of the education system under the SNP. The day job is subservient to the idependace requirement of the Scottish Hitler Youth. That what my nationalist friends referred to the then young members of the party. At spring conferance in Inverness.. They were nationalist and advocated devolution max. But the present leadership only want idependace at all costs.

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SW1 »

S M H wrote:The thing is if you bang on about independance the population will no notice that the train wreck of the education system under the SNP. The day job is subservient to the idependace requirement of the Scottish Hitler Youth. That what my nationalist friends referred to the then young members of the party. At spring conferance in Inverness.. They were nationalist and advocated devolution max. But the present leadership only want idependace at all costs.
Couldn’t agree more. They have created a complete mess of Scotland, education the state of some of Scotland’s major towns and cities particularly Glasgow should of had them thrown out, the entire salmond affair has also shown how far the apparatus of state has also been corrupted.

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by R686 »

Just out of curiosity now that Sturgeon is claiming the people voted for independence parties being the SNP/Greens winning the majority of seats, if the UGGov refuses to grant another IndyRef they will tak to court. What are the chances of it being successful considering to my knowledge of the aActs of the Union has no mechanism for either parties to withdraw

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

R686 wrote: to my knowledge of the aActs of the Union has no mechanism for either parties to withdraw
An interesting question (and one for the courts) but let's consider - as many are doing right now - how did we come to this point. The Sewel convention held that devolved powers should not be altered without the consent of devolved governments.
- Brexit killed that; and then
- The Internal Market Act goes even further by enhancing UK government powers. Neither of these points hardly news to anyone who has bothered to keep up with my blabbering on these pages :)

However, there is a brand new report form the School of Gvmnt @ Oxford Uni. The author, professor Martin was deputy chair of the committee overseeing HM Government’s Scotland Analysis Programme, led by Sir Nick Macpherson, the then Permanent Secretary at HM Treasury. This group oversaw the series of publications by the UK government on the potential consequences of independence.
- in his foreword to the report Sir William Fraser, Professor Emeritus of Scottish History and Palaeography, The University of Edinburgh says that
- while the "Niagara of media comment and discussion on the possibility of another referendum on Scottish independence, and on what might follow [...] has been mediocre, and some of interest[...] in my view, little if any of the commentary yet published can compare with this [one]
- and the summary offered by Martin Kettle @ The Guardian is that " It is hardly a new insight that leaving the European Union has made independence much more likely. The Oxford report goes further and deeper. It argues that Brexit “laid waste to a delicate constitutional balance” which, in some readings, had existed since the Act of Union in 1707."

Well worth a read, the whole report, but better still, there is a lecture that precedes the detailed analysis that summarises the whole report, in reprint. Pp. 5-11 in https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... _final.pdf
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SW1 »

Typical waffle from the guardian. Brexit didn’t change devolved powers. They have no role in foreign relations.


Remind me again what was the once in a generation question asks in 2014? Which everyone agreed too

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

You may dislike The Guardian (it is not my regular paper either) but if you care to look at the linked report from the Oxford Uni (any dislikes there, to refrain from doing so?)
... it is looking at ways to get out of the mess, created to a great degree by unintended consequences - the aspect I was trying to underline. In an academic way, looking from both sides of the fence (but not sitting on it) - the report that is :D

From its conclusions chapter:
Follow another model, as opposed to the one in recent referenda?
"In fact, there are three to choose from:
• the ‘in principle’, single referendum, as is proposed now, at the start of the process;
• ‘pre-negotiations’: the UK and Scottish governments negotiate the terms of independence before a vote and then put it to the Scottish electorate for approval or rejection; or
• two referendums: one on the principle, and then a confirmatory vote at the end of the negotiations.Some voices on the unionist side are now pushing the second option. This would involve the Scottish government (which would not yet have a mandate for independence) and London working out the terms of separation. The political attraction is obvious"
and is even gaining traction within the more thoughtful circles of the Unionist Party: namely, if the non-existing feasibility in most aspects of a free-standing Scottish state were there for everyone to see, few would vote for it (regardless of how strongly they might feel ;) )
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by Pseudo »

SW1 wrote:Typical waffle from the guardian. Brexit didn’t change devolved powers. They have no role in foreign relations.
While I think that there's some legitimate reasons to make the case that some of the powers that have been "returned" by Brexit should be devolved, I don't think that's what The Guardian article is really getting at. To me it seems to be suggesting that the EU referendum being called without the consent of the Scottish government and Scotland being taken out of the EU against the wishes of a majority of its voters in the referendum has broken or at least severely damaged the consensual basis of the union and it's that that makes independence more likely.

Personally, I'm very much against Scottish independence not least because it'll be bad for both sides both economically and socially, and unwinding a three-hundred year old union is going to be difficult and rancorous. However, I do respect the Scots right to self-determination. A lesser but important reason for my support for a confirmatory referendum on the Brexit deal was that it would create a precedent that would make Scottish secession a lot less likely.

What I think will happen is that unless events force it permit another Scottish independence referendum the Conservative government will continue to resist one. They'll ideally want to leave it as a trap for the next Labour government who after years of popular pressure for one building under an unyielding Conservative government will authorise one, lose it and then be the party that broke up the union which will return the Conservatives to government in short order.

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:authorise one, lose it and then be the party that broke up the union which will return the Conservatives to government in short order.
Indeed; but to the gvmnt of what?
If you look at the elections map, the thin sliver in the Scottish Borders would go (with it), but the Welsh 'borders' have a much thicker buffer zone held, add the S. Coast there (Labour, a national political party) and the rest of of it an economic basket case... again, regardless of how strongly 'anyone' might feel
- Ireland; no comment :silent:
- I think enough petrol onto the flames already ... but a delineation of the looks of R-UK, regardless
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Scotland (Political Thread)

Post by SW1 »

No one was taken out against there will! There was a country wide one person one vote the bedrock of democracy. It isn’t broken down to one county, one city or one street, or one post code. It was a national decision.

Everyone was well aware of that in 2014.

All the rest is just waffle and changes not one bit the question asked in 2014 which was

Should Scotland be an independent country. Yes or No.

The answer was no


I know it’s the snps only cause for existence the answer for them to everything is independence now what was the question

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