Middle East

Discuss current, historical or potential future deployments, as well the defence of the UK's overseas interests.
Frenchie
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Re: Middle East

Post by Frenchie »

Thanks for the advice ACC ;)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This excerpt is from MEF, the Middle East Forum
"the Islamist movement appears to be strong and growing, spanning a wide range of tactics from the fanatical murderousness of the Islamic State's caliphate to the increasing authoritarianism of Turkey's elected President Erdoğan. But, I predict, the movement will have much weakened in a decade. Two reasons mainly account for this decline: Islamists are ever-more inclined to engage in internecine strife (such as in Syria); and Muslim populations generally reject Islamist strictures when they experience these (think of Egyptians under Morsi). The overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran will culminate this decline, leading to a post-Islamist era.

Mr. Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum"

Having (the UK) first been overactive in the region, and then exhibited the tendency to pull back, there is a need to find a better balance... no worries, a whole decade to do that (?)!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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The Armchair Soldier
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Re: Middle East

Post by The Armchair Soldier »

British navy to lead Gulf 'war games' amid Iran tensions
A Royal Navy-led strike group of American, British and French warships is preparing for "war games" in the Gulf, including a simulated confrontation with Iran, amid ongoing disputes with Tehran's naval forces and bellicose rhetoric against the country by the new Trump administration.

[...]

The show of force next week will see Royal Navy flagship HMS Ocean and Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring deploy to the Gulf in a show of "deterrence and reassurance" alongside American warships USS Hopper and USS Mahan and French anti-aircraft frigate FS Forbin.
Read More: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/briti ... -205169915

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AstuteAssassin
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Re: Middle East

Post by AstuteAssassin »

Seems to be more exercises going on in the region at the moment. 3 Rifles in Kuwait, Scots Dragoon Guards in the UAE with their Jackals. 2PWRR also in Jordan recently


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Interesting theory in the Moscow Times (was western owned from founding to 2015):

"Russia is still sticking to its guns in its blanket defense of the Syrian regime, but this time around Assad may have overplayed his hand. He disrespected Putin by making him look helpless as a guarantor of the [2013] chemical weapons deal with Washington or worse, complicit with Assad in cheating on the agreement. He humiliated Putin before Trump by making Putin look weak. It is a slight the Russian leader has never taken lightly.

There is a sense among the Russian players that Assad was perhaps deliberately trying to scuttle the Astana peace process in which Moscow and Ankara invested much political capital. Assad and Tehran want full military victory, not a power sharing arrangement with defeated rebels. Assad and his Iranian backers never thought much about Astana and were clearly irritated by Russia and Turkey acting like the guys who run the show."

Cutting Iran loose would tilt the balance on the ground remarkably:

Assad started the war with 4 politically trustworthy divisions. They could not be everywhere, and therefore he had to start to cede ground.

Today's count is that 20.000 of the depleted Gvmnt forces are capable of taking offensive action, and any such would mainly rest on the 150.000 strong contingent when you count the Iranian (backed or drawn from the Quds) and Hezbollah (in and out, as ops require) manpower together.

As for the wider M. East, it is now imperative to finish Raqqa off, as Assad's priority now must have changed to carving out the West of Syria for his 11% of the population (BBC quoted the Christian component - before the troubles - at 10% in today's R4 news) to live in and survive. If Russia's support becomes half-hearted that would be "the best" outcome (for him).
... then the attention will shift to the Gulf where the UAE is starting to assemble Mig35s and China will set up a UAV factory in Saudi
- - all of this announced since the Iran sanctions were lifted; hedging the bets, should the Obama ME policy continue (of course it didn't, but these shifts do not take place overnight. Or to be more exact: Trump's policies might change or take their shape that abruptly, but the region hedging against US policies, that's what I meant. One valid reason for the US to change course under the auspices of the new Admnistration coming in?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

LordJim
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Re: Middle East

Post by LordJim »

Although it will piss off Turkey, the west should really throw its support behind the Kurds both in Iraq and Syria, providing support for the Ground forces and putting a protective air defence zone over their forces. An autonomous Kurdish region could actually stabilise the Kurdish region of Turkey as I can see much of its population crossing the boarder in to Iraq. OF course halting all activities inside Turkey would be a key condition of this change.

Iraq is going to become a failed country after ISIS are driven underground as the behavior of the Shite militias have turned the Sunni population totally against the Government, with mass disappearances or worse of Sunni men and boys. The Kurds seem to be the only part of Iraq to actually have a working Government and civil service and I can see them sheltering the Sunnis, expanding their territory in the process.

The West need to pull its support form those operations being carried out by the Shite Militias, both air and ground based. Iran has made a major power play in the region and has been successful, holding the balance of power in both Syria and Iraq, and is becoming a major threat to the wests interests. Support from Russia has really limited the wests room to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily and so concentrating its support behind the Kurds could be the way forward.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:a more aggressive campaign against the networks of Islamist extremists groups with ISIS and Al Qaeda at their center.
- signs of this have been embryonic in Libya (Maghreb politically should be counted into ME, as opposed to geography telling us otherwise), Somalia and Yemen
Old stuff (upstream) but a tidy up is badly needed; none of the three are in the cross-pull of Iran/ Turkey/ Saudi (but are of imminent interest to the 4th regional player, Egypt).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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The Armchair Soldier
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Re: Middle East

Post by The Armchair Soldier »

Image

Image

Image

Image
Three of Britain’s five ships permanently based in the Gulf joined the Americans and French as guests of the Omani Navy for exercise Khunjar Hadd (‘Sharp Dagger’).

The exercise tests the ability of the sultanate's Navy to work with warships from other navies which regularly operate in the region.

donald_of_tokyo
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Re: Middle East

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

The ship in front of the 1st image is Khareef class corvette. Is I were Camel Laired guy, I will use this image for PR. :D

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

"...the Astana peace process in which Moscow and Ankara invested much political capital. Assad and Tehran want full military victory, not a power sharing arrangement with defeated rebels. Assad and his Iranian backers never thought much about Astana and were clearly irritated by Russia and Turkey acting like the guys who run the show."
Does anyone even remember the Astana peace process - a rival to the empty Geneva gestures? Anyway, that's why Turkey is now on the ground, in Syria.

Further South, it is now official
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

benny14
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Re: Middle East

Post by benny14 »

The Kurds are getting absolutely murdered by Turkey and its Syrian backed rebels. It really annoys me that we are allowing Turkey to obliterate one of the few decent and stable factions in the middle east. Not only that but they are essentially giving territory to the Syrian rebels, which is gonna turn out great later on. If only Syria/Russia would step in and provide them with an anti-air net, things would be completely different.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

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Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

US intelligence assessment of threats, given to the Senate two days ago; here just picking up Iran from the world-wide scan, interesting i.e. in finding some common traits in the global policies deployed by Russia and China and also areas where they co-operate/ legitimise each others' actions.

"Military Modernization and Behavior Iran will continue to develop military capabilities that threaten US forces and US allies in the region. It also may increase harassment of US and allied warships and merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.

 Iran continues to develop, improve, and field a range of military capabilities that enable it to target US and allied military assets in the region and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These systems include ballistic missiles, unmanned explosive boats, naval mines, submarines and advanced torpedoes, armed and attack UAVs, antiship and land-attack cruise missiles, antiship ballistic missiles[?], and air defenses. Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East and can strike targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders.

- Russia’s delivery of the SA-20c SAM system in 2016 provided Iran with its most advanced long-range air defense system. Iran is also domestically producing medium-range SAM systems and developing a long-range SAM.

 In September 2018, Iran struck Kurdish groups in Iraq and ISIS in Syria with ballistic missiles in response to attacks inside Iran, demonstrating the increasing precision of Iran’s missiles, as well as Iran’s ability to use UAVs in conjunction with ballistic missiles.


31
 We assess that unprofessional interactions conducted by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy against US ships in the Persian Gulf, which have been less frequent during the past year, could resume should Iran seek to project an image of strength in response to US pressure. Most IRGC interactions with US ships are professional, but in recent years the IRGC Navy has challenged US ships in the Persian Gulf and flown UAVs close to US aircraft carriers during flight operations. Moreover, Iranian leaders since July have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The Economist writes
"On April 22nd the American administration announced that no further waivers would be granted to countries importing oil from Iran. [...] investors were shocked that no exceptions were allowed. According to the state department, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and America will help meet demand. But Brent crude, the international benchmark, quickly topped $74, the highest level in nearly six months."

With the Iraq mess $100 prices were created; will the present Administration be able to equal the record?
- the US may not risk facing a physical shortage (this time)
- surprisingly though ;) higher prices seem to be equally shared across the globe. Another little bonus to add to trade wars, Brexit and what else...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Skynews has used this one (from Pic: Wikicommons/Kelvin Case)
https://e3.365dm.com/19/04/1600x900/sky ... 0427150724
and it shows that the Silk Road would not work without the Shia Triangle holding together
... nor without co-opting Turkey

Easy as 123 :) ?

Putin of course wants to make sure that there is 'the Russian [controlled] option'... by sea.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If the BBC did more of these kinds of features, separating the state actors and the people, then 'we' could also easier see when 'the state' has been hijacked by para-statal actors (as parasites, living off it while squeezing the people) and direct sanctions accordingly: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east ... volution-1
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

see when 'the state' has been hijacked by para-statal actors
The first time in the period of ME unrest the (or rather, a) state has stepped in to stop gangs formed from Iran-backed militias from slaying demonstrators: https://www.france24.com/en/20191217-le ... -in-beirut
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Just when Ali Khamenei tweeted to Trump that 'he can do nothing'
... Suleimani and the local proxy (in Iraq) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis 'gone'

The lead time is too long to make the affirmative answer to this likely: Trump was on the phone to Putin on Sunday from his Mar-a-Lago retreat. According to the Kremlin readout of the call, the two discussed counterterrorism efforts and "matters of mutual interest."
- somehow, though, what's happened since would seem to fit inside that broad narrative
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Well, the official version is that Putin thanked Trump for some tip-off to prevent a terrorist act on Russian soil during the festive season... even though Russians have their Xmas still :) coming.

The reality is that the Islamic Republic failing to retaliate would risk credibility to the point of posing an existential threat to the regime. The only question is where the counter will come:
- Iraq; the US has prepared for this
- Israel; the response would be 'double'
- Syria; what to attack as the Americans have (nearly) left
- Lebanon; their strongest influence, but only marginal US targets
- Yemen... err, there is a 'peace process' so driving that one into the ditch would permanently tar Iran as the base for exporting terrorism

Leaves somewhere else; like the attack on Jewish civic centre in Buenos Aires (that was a good while back, but an example of how 'any collateral damage will do' )
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Middle East

Post by Caribbean »

Qatar is too "friendly" (not really in Iran's camp, but not getting on too well with Saudi at the moment). My guess would be Saudi or the Emiratis, particularly the relatively "soft" target of the Saudi oil facilities (I hope that they have improved defences since the last attack). Destroying a bit of infrastructure doesn't, however fit in with the scale of rhetoric coming out of Iran, so I agree, some sort of atrocity against a soft civilian target is entirely likely - maybe in a Gulf State?
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote:Qatar is too "friendly" (not really in Iran's camp, but not getting on too well with Saudi
The sources of the gas they pump extend over to Iran, and the friendliness is to avoid Saddam H. -like rhetoric (that Kuwait was stealing their oil... if anyone remembers those two 'neutral' zones that used to be on maps).

Anyway, this backgrounder https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq ... SKBN1Z301Z
shows that Reuters is still the 'king of the hill' when it comes to not delivering (repeating?) just headlines. The Times has given up on its mantra: ' we draw the picture; you colour it' but one could attribute the same tag to a new standard(s) bearer ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

cky7
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Re: Middle East

Post by cky7 »

Obviously below is all only worst possible case scenario but....


Iranian response is gonna be interesting at least (and unfortunately horrific for poor souls caught up in it). Thankfully they’ve apparently promised to limit themselves to military and political targets only. The regime has to do something to not look weak and encourage any domestic opposition, yet I can’t see them gaining anything from hitting the two obvious targets - US/Israel as they’d only hit them back a lot harder and that’s a fight that if escalated they can only lose and doesn’t fit the bulky boy nature of such a regime. Agree someone/where in the Middle East is probably most likely but I do hope we have made every effort to make sure all our people/assets are safe. Imagine something like Sinking one of the U.K. (or even separate EU mission) naval vessels would make for make for sneaky revenge against trump. Could be attempted to be hand waived off as not having been intended target/balls up but also could along with some small scale proxy retaliation against US troops somewhere be used to say “look how much revenge we took against great Satan/his acolytes for beloved hero general” and really get the supporters onside and give govt the impression of strength. We nor any of the euros are likely/even capable of doing anything at all to respond other than condemn and use our words without being tucked firmly beneath US skirt tails. All trump’s tweets have been “if you harm any American” so would be necessarily respond to protect nations he’s been telling need to do more to look after themselves? Particularly when I’m sure whilst he wouldn’t allow himself to look weak if US attacked, but would if at all possible rather things not get too hot? Leaves a tricky line for him/all. In the short term could suit both US and Iran that things don’t get too heated but long term would make an interesting revenge for the Iranians in surely driving a massive wedge between trump and euro allies. As first pointed out regional more likely and could have same sort of effects all round I guess but I’m wondering who would trump be most likely to be prepared to ignore defending when hitting regional ally just leaves the region an even bigger immediate powder keg and fuels further violent anti US response/feeling.
Am sure people far smarter and informed than I have thought this one through and prepped to protect against it if indeed there is any chance beyond a random though that came into my head.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

In the press the UAE has been mentioned as a soft target (I wonder why?) and in a way (thinking about how Yemen has played out) would be logical
- it also happens to be where the mullahs (past and present) have deposited their nest eggs... so those would disappear overnight
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

China gets a lot of oil from the Gulf... so all they want is the things becoming relatively quiet again.

Trump talked to Putin before (note: was mulling the action for several days, before deciding) ... and:
"Mrs Merkel's office announced earlier she will travel to Moscow on Saturday to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin to discuss Iran in a continuation of both their attempts to salvage the 2015 deal after the US withdrew in 2018."
- Russia sells uranium to Iran
- do they know what is done with it; and do they want to know? That is the question
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Middle East

Post by SW1 »

Apparently the US now positioning forces for withdrawal from Iraq effective immediately



An interesting evening in mod.....

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