Middle East

Discuss current, historical or potential future deployments, as well the defence of the UK's overseas interests.
topman
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Re: Middle East

Post by topman »


SW1
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Re: Middle East

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topman wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51014352

Some confusion over the letter.
You couldn’t make it up! sums up the whole sorry mess from it started confusion! It’s would be funny if it weren’t so serious.

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Jensy
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Re: Middle East

Post by Jensy »

topman wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51014352

Some confusion over the letter.
I have a suspicion that there will never be clarity on it.

Whoever leaked/released it has probably achieved their goal already. For all his bluster, Trump is about to be vastly overwhelmed by circumstances beyond his control and influence.

Closer to home this is probably our first big test as 'Global Britain'. I hope we don't waste it.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:the Gulf where the UAE is starting to assemble Mig35s and China will set up a UAV factory in Saudi
- - all of this announced since the Iran sanctions were lifted; hedging the bets
The above agreements were reported in 2017 and by now the UAV is ready.

The ultimate holding company to the one partnering with KSA on it is younger, though, almost like a last-minute thought to register one:
"UAVOS Holdings Limited was incorporated on 14-MAR-2018 as a Private company limited by shares registered in Hong Kong. It's company registration number is: 2665800. The date of annual examination for this private company limited is between Mar 14 and Apr 24 upon the anniversary of incorporation. As so far the company has been running for 1 years 11 months, and 28 days. The company is " Live" now. "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

6 years since Crimea and real incomes in Russia have shrunk every year since.

Intervention in Syria showed that Russian forces can project (even though got bogged down in Ukraine). But it has cost a lot and what has been left ' in the hand'? A strategic foothold around the Latakia region and trying to make the Assad regime cough up for all the deliveries of hardware that have sustained it.

Libya? Is the two-year long involvement a futile exercise; is the latest buildup by air force just a smoke screen for getting the mercenaries out, without too many of them actually being left on the battlefield for good.

As daily life in Russia is getting ever more difficult (and the pandemic not helping), will all these adventures actually be weighing up against Putin when the constitutional change is put to vote over the summer?
- time is too short to beat a complete retreat or to achieve anything substantial, to show for all the effort and considerable expense
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Middle East

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Quite a Big Bang this one


SDL
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Re: Middle East

Post by SDL »

2750t of Ammonium Nitrate stored since 2014... explosion felt in Cyprus & registered a 3.3 on the Richter Scale. 100 dead so far, scores missing.


SW1
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Re: Middle East

Post by SW1 »

Numbers that will sadly only rise and significantly so considering the utter devastation. Hopefully they start moving quickly.

Qatar field hospitals being flown in by c17s and French aircraft with similar heading that way also, French media reporting the French president will arrive there tomorrow.

The costs to rebuild and regenerate will be huge and if the west doesn’t step up the Chinese most likely will. The international development budget can be put to go use and with long term strategic benefit for all.

High detail before and after photos


SW1
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Re: Middle East

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Quite a significant moment in the ME perhaps

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-53770859

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to normalise relations, US President Donald Trump has announced.
A joint statement by Mr Trump, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed said they hoped the "historic breakthrough will advance peace in the Middle East".
As a result, they added, Israel would suspend its plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.
Until now Israel has had no diplomatic relations with Gulf Arab countries
However, shared concerns over Iran's regional influence have led to a unofficial contacts between them.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Armour can't get anywhere by air? Well, just did, to the part of Syria where the US maintains a presence (and where traffic accidents have become rife).

" CENTCOM also messaged Friday that it can send more Bradleys, since their troops are practicing rapid deployment loading drills from Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Airbase. "
- picked up by Defenceone
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Middle East

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

In his today's Thin Pinstriped Line post Sir Huphrey had been doing some digging and
" of interest is the specific nature of the deployment to Riyadh. The radar only has a range of around 120km, which isn’t enough reach to see into foreign airspace, and presumably also overlaps with existing Saudi air defence radar coverage. Does this point to a potential weakness in Saudi air defences that needs urgently to be addressed, or was this being delivered as a second level of assurance on the provision of timely information?

To make matters more interesting still, a wider google search shows that at almost the same time as 16 Regt deployed, the French Government publicly announced that it was deploying an equivalent capability to eastern Saudi Arabia.

The so-called ‘Jaguar Task Force’ was deployed following a statement by President Macron, and consisted of a radar unit and other elements, deployed to an unknown location. This was done in response to the rising threat from Iran.

Some public source media suggests that the deployment comprises around 50 personnel, using the Giraffe radar system, and came about following attacks on oil refineries. It is reportedly fully integrated into the Saudi air defence system. This is an open ended deployment with no fixed end date.

At about the same time, the US armed forces were stepping up their presence in Saudi Arabia, expanding their reach and demonstrating capability as part of the reassurance to the Kingdom.

So what can we draw from this? What we know is that in early 2020 the British Army / RAF deployed a unit consisting of surveillance radars to participate in an operation in Saudi Arabia. We know the French armed forces have carried out an identical deployment in the North East of the country. We do not know when, or if the deployment was concluded or if this was part of a wider joint UK/French/US operation. We do not know if this operation was carried out at the request of the Saudis, or was at the initiative of the UK."

... So what can we draw from this? It is not different at all from what was going on at the time of the Siege of Mecca (more accurately: the holy sites there that had been taken over by domestic extremists).

Counting by nation:
- at that (same) time there was considerable unrest in the predominantly Shia areas of the KSA (where he oilfields happen to lie, in the main)... surely Aramco's security contractors there were swiftly sent 'more muscle' though all the actions in the 'field were by the Saudi NG
- as for the 'burning problem' how to take back the holy sites, without damaging them, both the SAS and the French equivalent were consulted. According to creditable sources, it was actually the French side that planned and directed the operation by Saudi security forces

The same 'usual suspects' spotted on the scene again
REF:
Hiding in Plain Sight - The 'Secret' deployment of 16 Regt RA to Saudi Arabia
Posted: 16 Nov 2020 10:32 AM PST
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

BlueD954
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Re: Middle East

Post by BlueD954 »

https://questions-statements.parliament ... -11/114286

To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, have any British personnel accompanied the deployment of Giraffe radars to Riyadh since February 2020 to assist Saudi Arabia to track and identify objects in its airspace.

UK Defence personnel have accompanied the deployment of Giraffe radars to Riyadh. This deployment is purely defensive in nature and helps Saudi Arabia with the very real threats it faces.

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Middle East

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UK takes command again of Combined Task Force 150.

Good to see continued UK involvement and leadership of multinational Naval policing of global shipping lanes.


https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain ... ity-force/

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xav
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Re: Middle East

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Interview with the UK Maritime Component Commander (UKMCC), Commodore Phil Dennis, during NAVDEX 2023 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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SW1
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Re: Middle East

Post by SW1 »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... -seizures/

The U.S. military is readying plans to embark armed Marines and sailors aboard the commercial ships of interested private companies after a spate of vessel seizures by Iranian forces in the Middle East, officials said Thursday, a remarkable escalation that could put Washington and Tehran in direct confrontation.

Maritime security Arabian Sea gulf.

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Middle East

Post by wargame_insomniac »

Diaond sent to the Middle East to reinforce Lancaster.

https://www.navylookout.com/hms-diamond ... ddle-east/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british ... -the-gulf/

My main concern is that Diamond has yet to undergo the Power Improvement Package.
I am nervous each time we send a T45 that has not undergone PIP to anywhere hot.
Being stranded off either Houthi-held Yemen or off Iranian coast if engines failed again could be disastrous with their increased use of "Grey-Zone" attacks featuring drones, small fast boats or even missiles.....

Phil Sayers
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Re: Middle East

Post by Phil Sayers »

For my money there is no chance of the Houthis heeding this warning (in fact they might escalate their attacks as a show of defiance) and therefore strikes by the US, UK and possibly France (although they are a puzzling absence from the signatories) are likely imminent:

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Tempest414
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Re: Middle East

Post by Tempest414 »

Any attack by the US will open the doors to attacks against US bases in the region which in tern may see them being ordered to leave their host countries

I think if the Houthis want to ramp it up they can If I was them I would be looking at changing things up and maybe going with some torpedo attacks or dropping some sea mines in the choke point

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Middle East

Post by wargame_insomniac »

I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.

tomuk
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Re: Middle East

Post by tomuk »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.
How is it unilateral if carried out under the auspices of the 13 countries including Bahrain who put out the 'final warning' to the Houthis.

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Middle East

Post by wargame_insomniac »

tomuk wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 19:04
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.
How is it unilateral if carried out under the auspices of the 13 countries including Bahrain who put out the 'final warning' to the Houthis.
Which nations are actually to be carrying out any action? Hmmn? Bahrain??!!

13 Nations are immaterial. It will be PERCEIVED as unilatral by the wider world i.e. non-NATO / Japan / S. Korea / Australia etc.

We need Saudi Arabian backing.

tomuk
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Re: Middle East

Post by tomuk »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 21:32
tomuk wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 19:04
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.
How is it unilateral if carried out under the auspices of the 13 countries including Bahrain who put out the 'final warning' to the Houthis.
Which nations are actually to be carrying out any action? Hmmn? Bahrain??!!

13 Nations are immaterial. It will be PERCEIVED as unilatral by the wider world i.e. non-NATO / Japan / S. Korea / Australia etc.

We need Saudi Arabian backing.
Japan and Australia are two of the 13 countries.

ThreeHeadedLion
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Re: Middle East

Post by ThreeHeadedLion »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn
Saudi and UAE are now full BRICS+ members.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-01-02/

It does not change their basic calculus that Houthis are still a threat to them. They will issue public condemnation for domestic consumption but will be glad to see Houthi regime dismantled.

wargame_insomniac
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Re: Middle East

Post by wargame_insomniac »

tomuk wrote: 05 Jan 2024, 02:29
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 21:32
tomuk wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 19:04
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.
How is it unilateral if carried out under the auspices of the 13 countries including Bahrain who put out the 'final warning' to the Houthis.
Which nations are actually to be carrying out any action? Hmmn? Bahrain??!!

13 Nations are immaterial. It will be PERCEIVED as unilatral by the wider world i.e. non-NATO / Japan / S. Korea / Australia etc.

We need Saudi Arabian backing.
Japan and Australia are two of the 13 countries.
And??

How does two more Western-aligned nations participation in any attack on Houthis help in changing the perception of any non-Western nations??

tomuk
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Re: Middle East

Post by tomuk »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 05 Jan 2024, 19:46
tomuk wrote: 05 Jan 2024, 02:29
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 21:32
tomuk wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 19:04
wargame_insomniac wrote: 04 Jan 2024, 18:14 I think US and UK unilaterally attacking the Houthis is a strategic mistake, in particular how it may appear to the moderate states in the Arab World - countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should be our natural allies in the region. Otherwise we risk them being brought into the BRICS orbit. And yet Bahrain was the only Arab state who signed the recent Joint Statement arning the Houthis.

(And no I have nt forgotten Saudi execution of journalist and their treatment of foriegn workers who died and were injured in building the football World Cup stadiums in Qatar).

Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, We would have been far better working with the Saudis, even letting them take the lead, for any action against the Houthis.
How is it unilateral if carried out under the auspices of the 13 countries including Bahrain who put out the 'final warning' to the Houthis.
Which nations are actually to be carrying out any action? Hmmn? Bahrain??!!

13 Nations are immaterial. It will be PERCEIVED as unilatral by the wider world i.e. non-NATO / Japan / S. Korea / Australia etc.

We need Saudi Arabian backing.
Japan and Australia are two of the 13 countries.
And??

How does two more Western-aligned nations participation in any attack on Houthis help in changing the perception of any non-Western nations??
Those two nations were part of your list of the wider world.

As to perception in the non-Western world. The Houthis would not be on the Christmas card list of a large proportion of the Muslim world for example, see the IS car bomb in Iran.

Others such as China or India would be supportive on a purely trade \logistics basis, pro Houthi in a mischief making for the West basis or not bothered at all.
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