Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)
Posted: 30 Mar 2023, 18:23
Why would you want to sell to Saudi when they are cosying up to China’s security pac.
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Spot on ....inch wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 18:02 The only thing is with GCAP in future,I'm sure the Americans will try to exert pressure on GCAP partners in other ways to curtail sale's to countries that the US doesn't like ,so could limit GCAP sales ,ie if you sell GCAP to this country we will not supply you with parts for other programs like F35b which you still operating,ie US still blackmail GCAP partners to US advantage and sales for their products
Thing with that is to draw them in with us, how do we give them what they want from china? We can ditch them or try and 'win' them back?
Timmymagic wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 00:57 So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...
This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...
Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
Total - 122+ Typhoon, including new EK variant
Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon
Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 179-239 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)
*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).
Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).
Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...
Also to note. All future deliveries of Typhoon from Project Quadriga onwards will be of Tranche 4 onwards. The Qatari and Kuwaiti Tranche 3's are the last ones.
Typo on my part, I've amended.
With China doing $90 billion trade with Saudi every year largely oil and chemicals and relations with Saudi and Washington being frosty I don’t really know if they can or indeed if they want to be won back.
It is very unlikely that the Saudi relationship can be fully repaired to the extent it was at the turn of the century.
You said the same thing in the Tempest thread as well, I think this is now just nostalgia. The world has changed post arab spring and Iraq war. From the Saudi PVO it is only prudent to seek other security guarantors in China and Russia just in case the west decides to go after them.SD67 wrote: ↑31 Mar 2023, 02:42 Total trade with KSA is about 15 billion for the UK, 10 bn for Italy and 40 bn for Japan. Not to be sneezed at.
Then there’s the long standing historical ties, soft power, sons at Sandhurst etc. When I was in Saudi as a kid it seemed like Saudia airlines was an RAF retirement plan.
I’d say all to play for.
This is my take - I'm a pessimist by nature LOL.Timmymagic wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 19:27Timmymagic wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 00:57 So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...
This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...
Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
Total - 122+ Typhoon, including new EK variant
Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon
Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 179-239 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)
*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).
Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).
Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...
Also to note. All future deliveries of Typhoon from Project Quadriga onwards will be of Tranche 4 onwards. The Qatari and Kuwaiti Tranche 3's are the last ones.
Please can we keep the global politics out of this thread and keep at least SOME relevance to the Typhoon?SW1 wrote: ↑06 Apr 2023, 12:10 The sands are shifting.
https://www.reuters.com/world/foreign-m ... 023-04-06/
BEIJING/RIYADH, April 6 (Reuters) - The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing on Thursday for the first formal gathering of their top diplomats in more than seven years, after China brokered a deal to restore relations between the top regional powers.
After years of hostility that fuelled conflicts across the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their diplomatic rift and reopen diplomatic missions in a significant deal facilitated by China last month.
Re: Chile - why choose used Typhoons when there are lots of used F-16's kicking around?Timmymagic wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 19:27
Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-04-17/WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's administration notified Congress on Monday of the planned sale to Turkey of avionics software upgrades for its current fleet of F-16 fighter aircraft, a deal valued at up to $259 million.
The deal, first reported by Reuters earlier on Monday, moves ahead with the sale of the modernization package for Turkey's aircraft, after leaders of U.S. congressional committees gave informal approval.
A larger agreement, NATO member Turkey's request to buy billions of dollars worth of F-16s, remains in limbo amid continuing opposition in Congress.
The Americans have really messed up their relationship with Turkey. They sanctioned Turkey for buying the S400 ( imho - they should not have bought this junk .. ) but then did not sanction India for buying ther S400. That kind of lack of even handed approach really sticks with the Turks. The Kaan jet is a reflection of the fact that Turkey is large enough to go its own way if it choses to do so ...Spitfire9 wrote: ↑08 May 2023, 11:11 Turkish foreign minister is asking for money back on F-35. This could inject extra tensions into an F-16 deal with US, raising the chances of Turkey buying something else (eg Typhoon) to cover requirements up to the time TF-X is integrated into the Turkish air force.
Indian source: https://idrw.org/turkiye-does-not-ask-t ... ore-311440