Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

[sunstersun]

I agree but for a liberal democracy with personal freedom, enabling govts of other countries to undermine those values is somewhat inappropriate/unethical/completely unacceptable.

But BAE and Rolls are already there helping them with their next gen fighter.no one blocked that

Turkey are alot closer to liberal democracy than KSA or Egypt - both of whom have purchased Thphoon. They are also - in principle at least - a secular state. And a NATO member. And - officially - a candidate for EU membership

If we can pull Turkey decisively into the western camp it will be a massive strategic achievement.

Way OTT

Praying for a Erdogan defeat in the elections.

[Spitfire9]

Some info on the proposed weapons package to be supplied by UK to Turkey. Reliability of this source unknown to me.

I would think that if 40 new build F-16's and 60ish (?) upgrade kits are blocked, Turkey would be interested in a lot more than 24 Typhoons.

PS Turkish MMU (KF-X) prototype is reported to have been completed 2 months before official rollout date of March 18.

[SD67]

https://turkishminute.com/2022/09/30/ty ... jet-needs/

Here’s an interesting take - discussions about source codes and integration of Turkish weapons

[inch]

Could I just ask and I know not right thread but at least in context as we talking about turki , question why does turkey want or interested in 3 old type 23 frigates they can surely produce their own frigates by now , Chile yes maybe but turkey?

[SD67]

Could I just ask and I know not right thread but at least in context as we talking about turki , question why does turkey want or interested in 3 old type 23 frigates they can surely produce their own frigates by now , Chile yes maybe but turkey?

Greece has four modern German subs which could cause havoc.
T23 is still one of if not the best ASW platform, if they've been Lifex'd and we're giving them away and they're available now...

[abc123]

In fairness Turkey generally (and Erdogan personally) would have pretty good grounds for saying that it is the rest of NATO who have been a poor ally to them in recent years rather than they having been a poor NATO ally.

1. We enlisted the YPG as an ally to fight ISIS despite knowing full well they are very closely linked with the PKK (who we list as a prescribed terrorist organisation) and have a very fluid crossover of both leadership and membership. The PKK's war in Turkey has killed over 30k people and it is hardly a surprise that Turkey would be extremely apprehensive / alarmed / angry / bitter / feeling totally betrayed, unvalued and disregarded about legitimate concerns over the YPG taking control of a large potion of the border with a deep safe haven beyond the border. This is not really any different to informing Israel that we intended to enlist Hezbollah to fight ISIS and expecting them to be fine with it. It would have been far better to instead enlist Syrian Arab rebels to fight ISIS despite that causing more short term headaches and a much increased chance of directly fighting Assad's forces (which would not have been a bad thing anyway).

2. When Turkey showed real balls and were clearly indicating they were prepared to escalate the fight in Syria in response to the Russians showing up in late 2015 they shot down a Russian SU-24 that (probably deliberately) had strayed across the border. They expected forthright NATO backing and instead got uncomfortable silence / implicit criticism in public statements. That then caused them to reappraise their entire approach to the war in Syria and the consequences can hardly be described as resulting in good outcomes.

3. On the night of the 2016 Turkish coup attempt they expected strong statements condemning an illegal attempt to seize power from a democratically elected government. They did not get anything of the sort (indeed started to suspect US involvement) which is part of the reason that Erdogan no longer feels a need to abide by democratic norms.

To be clear I do not like Erdogan (who I view as being a despicable, illiberal despot albeit one who could well argue they have been prodded that way) and nor do I approve of the relentless 'bullying' that Turkey displays towards the YPG / SDF / civilians living in NE Syria. However, there is plenty of blame to go around here, primarily caused by Obama prioritising the short-term interests of the US and disregarding the long term core security interests of an important ally, rather than Erdogan / Turkey being to blame.

Turkey being one of the most prominent not-even-so-hidden backers of the various radical islamist organisations ( and headed by also radical islamist Erdogan )- I would prefer any Kurdish organisation any day.
If Erdogan isn't Erdogan ( a radical islamist ) maybe the world would be more vocal in condemmnation of the coup attempt. Allthough- a coup allegedly backed by the US to put one radical islamist ( Gulen ) instead of another ( Erdogan )- really, what to say?

I understand that NATO will choose Turkey over Kurds- but it still stinks- a lot.

[abc123]

I agree but for a liberal democracy with personal freedom, enabling govts of other countries to undermine those values is somewhat inappropriate/unethical/completely unacceptable.

But BAE and Rolls are already there helping them with their next gen fighter.no one blocked that

Turkey are alot closer to liberal democracy than KSA or Egypt - both of whom have purchased Thphoon. They are also - in principle at least - a secular state. And a NATO member. And - officially - a candidate for EU membership

If we can pull Turkey decisively into the western camp it will be a massive strategic achievement.

Way OTT

Praying for a Erdogan defeat in the elections.

Yeah, it will happen just after Kim Jong Un and Putin are defeated.

[Ron5]

source codes

*source code

Rule of thumb: anyone that talks about source codes doesn't have a frikkin clue what he/she is talking about. Not meaning @SD67 but the linked Turkish article.

[inch]

Could I just ask and I know not right thread but at least in context as we talking about turki , question why does turkey want or interested in 3 old type 23 frigates they can surely produce their own frigates by now , Chile yes maybe but turkey?

Learn their design secrets before scrapping them?

It's only an unsubstantiated rumor anyway.

[Jensy]

It's only an unsubstantiated rumor anyway.

Seriously everyone....MiddleEastEye is up there with Eurasian Times as a credible source.

[SD67]

True
It’s all speculation. All we know is that the Turkish defence minister was in London for talks with Wallace, and the F16 deal is facing stiff opposition in congress. And BAE are already in country on the TFX program. The rest is all parlour game speculation but it’s fun

[Spitfire9]

Typhoon uses sustainable jet fuel in air-to-air refuelling for the first time - a half/half mix with conventional fuel.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/raf-use ... irst-time/

If the calorific value of the fuel is the same, fine to me. If lower, bad to me. If lower, I see this as PC reducing the performance of the aircraft.

“This is another key achievement in the Royal Air Force’s remarkable progress to increase their use of sustainable fuel. With potential benefits for the environment and operational resilience, this important work alongside expert defence industry and scientific teams in the UK is crucial for the RAF’s future resilience.” - Baroness Goldie, a Defence Minister

Operational resilience?

[Little J]

Assuming that we make it ourselves, "Operational resilience" could mean not relying on supplies from other countries...?

[wargame_insomniac]

Spain appears to be going for a Project Halcon 2 to replace the remaining EF-18. Looks like it will be a mix of 25 Typhoon and 25 F-35. The variant of F-35 isn't known but is likely to be F-35B to replace the AV-8B+ on Juan Carlos 1. See also Gareth Jennings note, looks like Airbus/Spanish Industry might have managed to convince the government to move away from a 50 F-35 order to a split buy. I suspect that means F-35A is the variant dropped.

It's worth noting that after the initial Project Halcon buy of 20 Tranche 4 Typhoon to replace the oldest EF-18 that still left 64 EF-18 in service, and 13 AV-8B+ for a total of 77 combat aircraft. So there is the possibility that this won't be an end to Halcon...there could be a Halcon 3 to roughly maintain force numbers, which more than likely would be 25 x F-35, unless Airbus et al can get a result on the political front again... So the Spanish MoD request to the US for details on 50 F-35, made up of 25 A and 25 B, could still be in play. It also could mean an additional 25 Typhoon under a Project Halcon 3...



So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...

This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...

Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
28 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
Total - 87+ Typhoon, including new EK variant

Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon

Potential Orders...in order of probability..
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+). Close to putting this in the 'due to be' list...
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 204-264 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)

*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).

Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).

Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus.

[Spitfire9]

Potential Orders...in order of probability..
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+). Close to putting this in the 'due to be' list...
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned.
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea

Turkey should get its F-16's, given that a big majority is needed in the Senate to overturn a Biden decision to supply. So Typhoon is very or extremely unlikely.

IIRC Malaysia had narrowed its MRCA choice down to FA-50 or Tejas Mk1A, selected FA-50 as the winner before the deal was put on hold due to corruption suspicions. So Typhoon not under consideration.

Regarding Indonesia, it 'ordered' Rafale. I say 'ordered' because Indonesia is not a reliable payer (eg KF-21 fiasco). I don't think that Typhoon is in the frame at all. IMO if Indonesia can find the wherewithal - through a money and palm oil barter - it will buy Rafale or KF-21.

[Timmymagic]

Turkey should get its F-16's, given that a big majority is needed in the Senate to overturn a Biden decision to supply. So Typhoon is very or extremely unlikely.

I do expect the US to relent at some point once Erdogan has allowed Sweden and Finland into NATO. I believe the current rumours are just an attempt, not necessarily by the State itself to put some light pressure on the US.

IIRC Malaysia had narrowed its MRCA choice down to FA-50 or Tejas Mk1A, selected FA-50 as the winner before the deal was put on hold due to corruption suspicions. So Typhoon not under consideration.

That wasn't the MRCA programme, that was the Light Combat Aircraft programme.

Regarding Indonesia, it 'ordered' Rafale. I say 'ordered' because Indonesia is not a reliable payer (eg KF-21 fiasco). I don't think that Typhoon is in the frame at all. IMO if Indonesia can find the wherewithal - through a money and palm oil barter - it will buy Rafale or KF-21.

Thats why I've got it in the Removed section. Runours were around the Austrian Tranche 1's. But they wouldn't be available until 2030 at least, probably later.

[Spitfire9]

Turkey should get its F-16's, given that a big majority is needed in the Senate to overturn a Biden decision to supply. So Typhoon is very or extremely unlikely.

I do expect the US to relent at some point once Erdogan has allowed Sweden and Finland into NATO. I believe the current rumours are just an attempt, not necessarily by the State itself to put some light pressure on the US.

IIRC Malaysia had narrowed its MRCA choice down to FA-50 or Tejas Mk1A, selected FA-50 as the winner before the deal was put on hold due to corruption suspicions. So Typhoon not under consideration.

That wasn't the MRCA programme, that was the Light Combat Aircraft programme.

Regarding Indonesia, it 'ordered' Rafale. I say 'ordered' because Indonesia is not a reliable payer (eg KF-21 fiasco). I don't think that Typhoon is in the frame at all. IMO if Indonesia can find the wherewithal - through a money and palm oil barter - it will buy Rafale or KF-21.

Thats why I've got it in the Removed section. Runours were around the Austrian Tranche 1's. But they wouldn't be available until 2030 at least, probably later.

About Turkey, it is reported that it is talking to US about getting a small number of F-35. May be to lever more from Sweden, Finland NATO accession.

About Malaysia, my mistake, yes it was the advanced trainer/light fighter competition. By the time Malaysia starts to consider MRCA, KF-21 and F-35 will be in the frame. I do not think that new build Typhoons would stand much of a chance against either of those. FA-50 for LIFT/LCA then KF-21 for MRCA looks best for Malaysia to me.

Indonesia's procurement record is chaotic. Who knows, it might send a letter to UK offering to take our T1's.

[Ron5]

Much appreciated summary Timmy. Thanks

[Phil Sayers]

Turkey may be more inclined to drop its objection to Sweden joining NATO due to revelations that the person who recently burned the Quran (something Erdogan himself cited re; the accession to NATO) was funded by a Kremlin linked journalist to do so. I'm sure Erdogan will continue to milk it for domestic PR but if he suspects that Moscow was deliberately trying to cause further tension you would hope that changes the way he really thinks of things:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ato-russia

[SD67]

A bit OTT, but I think Putin made a big mistake in taking a sectarian line, talking about the Byzantine Empire etc, obviously that is going to be a red rag to Turkey, it's pushed them back into our camp.

Though if Erdogan can be phased into retirement that's fine by me, a Turkish former colleague translated one of his speeches for me - scary stuff

[inch]

I suspect Erdogan will swiftly just move onto next excuse if proven a Russian backed journalist tbh , think it's going to be a v long time before he let them in

[TheLoneRanger]

I suspect Erdogan will swiftly just move onto next excuse if proven a Russian backed journalist tbh , think it's going to be a v long time before he let them in

The best thing would be for Finland to apply independently of Sweden. It will force Turkeys hands, ie what is the rationale to deny Finlands accession. If Erdogan does reject Finland then basically we can infer that Turkey is using NATO accession to further its interests with Russia as bargins for Russia than take its NATO responsibility seriously as a collective effort that it is.

[inch]

Is turkey even interested in being in NATO ,or should NATO be really interested in having turkey in NATO ,sure it can work both ways ie if unanimous that everyone doesn't want Turkey in NATO for being more a liability than a help maybe that's the way to go tbh , surely it should be for countries that want to be positive and help each other for a common defence and an asset to each otherlike Sweden and Finland would be a great asset

[SD67]

Well they have NATO's biggest army, and a rivalry with Russia going back to 1453 so it's probably worth the stretch to keep them in

[wargame_insomniac]

I must admit that I am in two minds on Turkey being a useful and productive part of NATO.

I am not happy with their actions on Cyprus, and the way they seem to play the West off versus Russia for their own national interest. I don't like their treatment of Kurds or their actions in Syria.

But the fact that they control the Dardanelles and thus can control access to the Black Sea does make it vital to NATO's southern flank and Eastern Meditteranean.