South China Sea

[bobp]

China wont back down it would be a loss of face for the ruling party.

[arfah]

Expect a large deployment into disputed seas by the People's Republic...

[Halidon]

Wild card from now until at least November is the bat-guano crazy new president of the Philipines. He's looked (a little too) willing to deal with China on the SCS territorial issues, but this ruling pretty much nukes any veneer of legality on which to negotiate. Does this embolden him to take a hard line, does he use it as an opportunity to push for regional rather than bilateral solutions, or does it incentive the PRC to cut him a sweetheart deal that gets him a political "win" but undermines stability in the region?

[FuNsTeR]

China wont back down it would be a loss of face for the ruling party.

is it any different from Israel ignoring the UN in regards to the illegal settlements in the West bank ?

[arfah]

I don't rate the Phillipines military against PRC.
A batshit guano crazy President should bear in mind that large swathes of the Phillipines are already in the SCS and therefore "Chinese."

[arfah]

PRC ups the ante with regular combat air patrols over the SCS.

http://www.janes.com/article/62389/chin ... -china-sea

[xav]

PLAN flexing its muscles

PLAN Conducted Major Naval Drills Involving close to 100 Vessels & Units in South China Sea

Our colleagues from Eastpendulum are reporting that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN or Chinese Navy) conducted large scale naval drills in the South China Sea. The naval exercise involved close to 100 vessels, submarine, aircraft from the PLAN air force and coastal defense (land based) units during 4 days (between July 7 and 11, 2016).

Based on the pictures and videos of the exercise released by the PLAN, several vessels and systems can be identified:
» Destroyers: Type 052C Lanzhou (hull number 170), Type 052D Hefei (174), Type 052B Guangzhou (168) Type 051C Shenyang (115) and Sovremenyy-class destroyers Ningbo (139).
» Type 054A Frigates Hengyang (568), Huangshan (570), Yuncheng (571), Sanya (574) and Yueyang (575)
» Type 056 Corvettes Luzhou (592), Chaozhou (595) and Huizhou (596) and Type 056A Corvette Suqian (504)
» Type 039 and Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines (SSK)
» J-10AH, J-11BH, JH-7A and Su-30MKK fighters as well as H-6G bombers
» HQ-9 medium-to-long range air defense missile system
» YJ-62 coastal defence units
» The new YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile launched from an H-6G
[...]
According to an official PLAN statement, the objective of this large scale exercise was to evaluate the integrated capability of the various units of the Chinese navy in case of a local conflict. The presence of the Commander of the Chinese navy, Admiral Wu Shengli, and officials of the General Staff throughout the maneuvers demonstrates the importance of this naval exercise.

With video at link: http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.ph ... ew&id=4222

[arfah]

China-Russia joint exercise announced in the SCS.

http://www.forces.tv/74659024

[arfah]

China's PLAAF conducts combat air patrols over Scarborough Shoals and the Spratly islands.

http://www.janes.com/article/62824/plaa ... -china-sea

[xav]

Vietnam People's Navy deploys Bastion-P Mobile Coastal Defense Systems in drills

The Vietnam People's Navy (VPN) has deployed the K-300P Bastion-P (NATO reporting name: SSC-5-C Stooge) mobile coastal defense missile systems (MCDMS) supplied by Moscow, according to a source in the Russian defense industry.

http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.ph ... ew&id=4277

[arfah]

First of ten Japanese built MRRV's for Phillipines Coast Guard.

http://www.janes.com/article/63065/firs ... hilippines

[arfah]

China has been making threats of belligerent action in the East and South China Sea ( although no one seems really sure?) against its neighbours should they attempt a Freedom of Navigation mission.

http://breakingdefense.com/2016/08/chin ... s-fon-ops/

[abc123]

China has been making threats of belligerent action in the East and South China Sea

[ArmChairCivvy]

Judging by the rationale given for Indias's three carrier prgrm, that Ocean will be next.

As if the Persian/ Arabian Gulf wasn't being contested hotly enough.

[ArmChairCivvy]

action in the East and South China Sea(s!)

- two interesting points here:
1. China seems to be building their CG OPVs on frigate hulls. The Cod War like actions of hugging the other party become possible w/o the military being directly involved (even though, no doubt, circling in immediate vicinity)
2. Out of the two nations explicitly mentioned, Japan has been one, which is worrying in the sense that both China and Japan are driving towards bundling these disputes

[arfah]

China warns Phillipines of confrontation.

Chinese Coastguard vessels Obstruct Phillipino fishermen near disputed Scarborough Shoals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... frontation

[abc123]

Judging by the rationale given for Indias's three carrier prgrm, that Ocean will be next.

As if the Persian/ Arabian Gulf wasn't being contested hotly enough.

Irony aside, any of these nations has far more right to determine things in that area than the US. Except if "force is right", but in that case poor little Vietnam or Phillipines have nothing to complain...

[seaspear]

The question is how can small nation states defend their sovereignity if a larger state will not accept the results of international court rulings ,
if the inability of court rulings can decide matters then certainly other nations can be expected by military dplomacy exert their "rights" .

[ArmChairCivvy]

Freedom of navigation... or closed air defence zones? The latter are, of course, only a little test ball, thrown into the ring.

[Pseudo]

The question is how can small nation states defend their sovereignity if a larger state will not accept the results of international court rulings ,
if the inability of court rulings can decide matters then certainly other nations can be expected by military dplomacy exert their "rights".

Surely the only answer is multinational enforcement, which probably boils down to primarily US enforcement alongside Japan, South Korea, Australia and possibly India.

[ArmChairCivvy]

primarily US enforcement alongside Japan, South Korea, Australia and possibly India.

Yes, India already has naval facilities in Vietnam,

Let's not forget Singapore, which is a service centre (also in the maritime sense) for the whole region and to whom open SLOCs are a matter of life and death (the same goes for China, btw).

[seaspear]

To some degree what China has done off the coast of the Phillipines is similar to what Russia has achieved in the Ukraine ,whether Russia and China had discussions on tactics can be speculated ,certainly only Russia has faced economic sanctions suggesting China is to important to the worlds economy to face similar sanctions.

[arfah]

Indonesia to conduct its largest ever naval exercise in the SCS.

http://www.janes.com/article/64248/indo ... -china-sea

[arfah]

A few images and an article explaining Ex. Bersama Lima 16, courtesy of the Singapore government.

https://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/press ... AuC2nR4WhA

[ArmChairCivvy]

We would need the good old TD over here to draw the range circles out into the S. China Sea (and someone else to translate Mare Nostrum NOT into Mandarin):

"one weapon in the works directly inspired by Multi-Domain Battle: a version of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMs) modified to strike ships at sea. Both Adm. Harris — eager for every advantage against the growing Chinese fleet — and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley have called for the Army to sink ships, and the Marines are interested as well. That’s a capability the ground services have lacked since the Coastal Artillery disbanded in 1950. Reviving it in the form of long-range precision missiles is the most dramatic and tangible example of the kind of change Multi-Domain Battle can bring — but it’s far from the only one." breakingdefence of today (from a much longer story)

So now the ground forces of Vietnam, Malesia, the Philippines... can concentrate on protecting these (mobiles) sites, and only subs will be able to move freely in pretty much all of that area.