I think that there's a good reason that China has increased the number of children that its population are allowed to have from two to three. I also think that there are a number of reasons that it won't work without significant incentives and if they decide to provide incentives they will impinge on other spending priorities.abc123 wrote:Interesting analysis. I myself, think that 10 years is more likely, but on the other hand, that suits China too much, so the US will try to shorten that as much as possible. So, yes, maybe 5+ years might be the answer.
I suspect that China's impending demographic cliff is a significant part of the reason that they've been going all out on military expansion and the change in policy regarding the number of children their citizens are allowed to have indicates that it's a greater problem than they thought.