Geopolitics and the global economy

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Lord Jim wrote:ends up a lot like what the UK wanted before the referendum took place
In that scenario the NATO survives (Trump perhaps not) and Putin's little schema falters, but only on the chalk lines...
Lord Jim wrote:no longer have any rebate and ou[t]r influence just above Malta's for at least a decade.
and as a crowning glory the EU, before granting "equivalence" of regulation sends a team of MEPs to look into how on earth all (almost :) ) of the world's dirty money ends up in London
- they rule that Rule of Law rules in the UK
- but the Dirty Money Schemes need cleaning up before "equivalence" is to be granted. UK-based FS firms get the passporting reprieve (i.e. can keep theirs) on a rolling 3 month basis, conditional on the progress reported on the above

Yep... and very little of that even needs to be "made up".
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Lord Jim wrote:n the mean time we leave off a cliff
Much as I thought that we would have more influence on the future shape of things and would minimise economic damage by staying in, I'm beginning to feel that a "no deal" exit into WTO rules isn't quite the "cliff face" that has been portrayed. There are a great number of "background" agreements that come into play, as well as a significant number of side agreements on specific topics that have effectively addressed the major "Project Fear" predictions. Things won't be exactly the same and there may well be disruption, but there are a lot of protections under WTO rules against deliberate disruption by other parties (and even against failure to employ best efforts (in the full legal sense) to mitigate disruption). It also appears that the Government. or rather the Civil Service, far from starting a late and panicky set of preparations for a no deal, has actually been preparing for the last two and a half years. The official reckoning immediately after the referendum was that there was a 50/50 chance of no deal. The Government just hasn't announced the fact, presumably because TM wants to push her own "vassalage" deal through and doesn't want anyone even contemplating the possibility that "no deal" is better than "her deal"
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Caribbean wrote:
Lord Jim wrote:n the mean time we leave off a cliff
Much as I thought that we would have more influence on the future shape of things and would minimise economic damage by staying in, I'm beginning to feel that a "no deal" exit into WTO rules isn't quite the "cliff face" that has been portrayed. There are a great number of "background" agreements that come into play, as well as a significant number of side agreements on specific topics that have effectively addressed the major "Project Fear" predictions. Things won't be exactly the same and there may well be disruption, but there are a lot of protections under WTO rules against deliberate disruption by other parties (and even against failure to employ best efforts (in the full legal sense) to mitigate disruption). It also appears that the Government. or rather the Civil Service, far from starting a late and panicky set of preparations for a no deal, has actually been preparing for the last two and a half years. The official reckoning immediately after the referendum was that there was a 50/50 chance of no deal. The Government just hasn't announced the fact, presumably because TM wants to push her own "vassalage" deal through and doesn't want anyone even contemplating the possibility that "no deal" is better than "her deal"
Much to agree with there

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Looking at GNP growth https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=h ... DWAF.Q--~C
the war in Syria seems to be over (top of the league) and the places bitterly and 50/50 ( ;) ) divided are doing the worst: Iran (does anyone remember the elections anymore, during and after which the other 50% was brutally repressed; Turkey going the same way), Venezuela, Yemen...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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An interesting book, looking at Europe in a trumpian (well, Putin and Xi seem to be playing by the same rules) way:
"world politics today is not about an ideological
battle, but about the pursuit of interests. Each
of the great powers has a strategy to safeguard
its interests, which can of course have a
negative impact on the interests of the other
great powers

but that is not the same as
having a strategy aimed directly against those
other powers. China has a strategy for China,
not against Europe. If we willingly make this
into an ideological battle, once again, we will
create a new long-term bipolar confrontation

https://www.routledge.com/European-Stra ... 1138384729
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Abenomics has been around for a while, but nobody has "codified" what trump-anomics are about and rely on as their conceptual underpinning.

Italy just got slapped on the wrist, and squeezed their (proposed) deficit to 3.04% (Macron is still at his calculator, to get that last decimal...). The way to go (not?) is
"IN THE LAST three months of 2018 America’s federal government borrowed $317bn, or about 6% of quarterly GDP. The deficit was 1.5 percentage points higher than in the same quarter the year earlier, despite the fact that unemployment fell below 4% in the intervening period."

There is a trick with this, though: you have to be able to borrow (mainly) in your own currency. The US and Japan have no problem with that
- billions and billions in £ Sterling... when the currency is all over the place daily. I don't think so
- the mutual credit union, called the euro zone, may also have to see how far that mutual guarantee can take them
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Was it a surprise announcement by Poland that "we want our people back"?

Not really, if you look at PWC analysis of growth prospects, esp. "Projected average real GDP growth p.a., 2016-2050"
Poland, Russia, Germany, Italy and Japan all are projected to have negative population growth (by then).
- Poland has been growing v strongly, lately, thanks to the structural change brought about their accession to the EU... they don't want to "change the winning game"
- Russia has focussed on capital intensive (extractive) industries, while productivity in other sectors, save for armaments industry that is enjoying massive gvmnt R&D and other subsidies, is piss poor
- Germany is continuing to chase supreme productivity gains (then the population and work force numbers won't matter so much), but demand outside the euro-area is already becoming more subdued - and within the euro-area is becoming more and more dependent on transfers... which are all loans, with strings attached. Stirring political resentment.
- Italy, well: Italy is Italy (Bannon wants to groom the the Il Duce in his political academy, set up in some monastery, but has the support of some wing of the Catholic Church as well as the obvious wing in the Italian politics)
- Japan is facing such sclerotic domestic demand that the Central Bank has been buying equities, to release some cash for spending (Err, our conservative Bank of England did the same, but it was a block buy from banks' balance sheets. Not that they had a clue what to do with the "stuff" after the fact!)

That's all descriptive. What's the message?
- the new Cold War has already begun
- it is not the one grabbing the headlines (Putin and all that. Obama was factually right, but politically wrong when dismissing Russia as a "middle-sized economy")
- but the US/ China trade war
- the previous round took 40 years to come to a kind of result; will we still be here to see the score for this one?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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ArmChairCivvy wrote:Oil price plunges and theinternal repression machine steps into a higher gear (this TV channel has already been taken off the air, but the past stays on utube):

Everyone filmed from the helicopter hovering overhead. And the guy holding a placard with an opinion of the current leader had already packed his rucksack - as he knew that Siberia would be waiting ahead.

The other strand seems to be emerging on the international front: the INF treaty transgressions are no longer swept under the carpet, but will soon have a spot light shining on them.
Only a year later we have reached exactly that place.

Reuters has put out an interesting assessment:
"Memories of empty supermarket shelves in the run-up to the 1991 Soviet collapse still haunt many older Russians as the then Soviet Union directed huge cash flows to the military-industrial complex to try to keep up with the United States while neglecting the consumer economy. "
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-n ... PW1U1?il=0

What the piece does not mention is that in reality the negotiations were three-way (not bilateral... or why would the venue have been Beijing?). Unfortunately, the negotiations failed.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Governor Carney has listed some factors; being politically correct has also omitted some:
""The Bank of England estimates that a 3% drop in Chinese GDP would knock 1% off global activity, including half a per cent off each of UK, US and euro area GDP," he said."
The three countries most likely to send shock waves that the world economic system then amplifies, depending on its current state, are China, Italy and the UK
- the first two stand on feet of clay (over-investment; over-indebtedness) whereas the third one has chosen to contemplate self-inflicted harm

Brinkmanship seems now to be the favourite game everywhere, but it can easily turn into Russian roulette. An example was given, though no probability for it happening:
"He added that a "larger increase in tariffs of 10 percentage points between the US and all of its trading partners could take 2.5% per cent off US output and 1% off global output."["]
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Both of the two biggest economies are desperately trying to keep the engine from spluttering, while actively sapping confidence (so consumption must take the place of investment demand, to avoid a slump)


"Beijing unveils $298bn tax cuts to boost growth", but in the US everything (at least for now) is bigger as that sort of number is attained in just four months:
" The US federal deficit hit $310 billion in the first four months of the 2019 fiscal year.
That amount represents a 77% increase compared to the same period in fiscal year 2018.
The increase was driven by a 2% drop in tax revenue and a 9% increase in spending."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Anything (!) to get to the top job... and then let rip

The Economist quotes a study:
"
A new paper finds that China’s statistics on industrial output and investment were consistently embellished by an average of two percentage points every year from 2008 to 2016. This would have exaggerated the size of the economy by 16%, or more than $1.5trn, in 2016. The incentives to inflate statistics are obvious for provincial leaders, whose chances of promotion depend on reported economic performance."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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By October things will be looking quite different:
- while Macron will be fighting populists - and so will many others - in the euroelections;
- Italy (when looking a bit further out) will be fighting to just stay afloat
- Merkel will be handing more over to Kramp-Karrenbauer, who will tune the German position from shared sovereignty (but with a German veto on everything) towards being a personified German souverainiste
... and we, of course, will still be fiddling our thumbs and doing very little else than debating Brexit options

While the dark clouds over the broader global economy continue gathering
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Lots of wheeling and dealing in the backroom, to create confidence in the oil markets (as the Iranian supply will 'disappear'... or not. Ref China):

"Saudi Arabia and the UAE have apparently indicated a willingness to offset Iranian disruptions, it would come at the expense of spare capacity. OPEC has about 3 mb/d of spare capacity, but Iran could lose nearly 1 mb/d if the U.S. succeeds. An outage elsewhere leaves little margin for error. “If you assume Iran exports don’t go to zero, and China continues to take some Iranian barrels, then yes the Gulf states should be able to replace them,” Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH, said in a Bloomberg interview. “But you still come back to the fact that the spare capacity is gone.” ["]

+ Poland and Germany suspend oil imports from Russia over quality concerns.
That 'surplus' oil is now going to hit spot markets; goes some way towards the loss of nearly 1 mb/d

+Trump admin siding with Haftar, reversing official U.S. policy of supporting the internationally-recognized government in Tripoli is no coincidence, either
... Trump was apparently convinced to back Haftar after speaking with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, both of whom stressed Haftar’s importance in securing Libya’s oil fields
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Trump did not have anything nice to say about this
" Ursula Von de Leyen has started springing some surprises.

Her announcement that Margrethe Vestager would have an expanded brief, including both competition and digital affairs, brought a gasp from the news conference."

... more particularly, picked by SkyNews:
"earned her the reputation from Donald Trump as a woman who "hates the United States".

Refusing to say her name during a Fox News talk show earlier this year, the US president went on to describe her as "perhaps worse than any person I have ever met".["]
He may have problems with women; but Scandi women seem to be 'special' :lol:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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expanded brief, including both competition and digital affairs
Was a bit quick and omitted the geopolitical aspect in the above comment. As Trump was quick to nix web neutrality, meaning
"have the right to discriminate and favor the internet traffic of those companies with whom they [internet providers] have pay-for-play arrangements and the right to consign all others to a slow and bumpy road. Plain and simple, thanks to the FCC’s roll back of net neutrality, internet providers have the legal green light, the technical ability, and business incentive to discriminate and manipulate what we see, read, and learn online."

the fight about who owns the most important "commodity" on the internet, users' data, is now in the hands of the EU, with the label GDPR.

If one is gifted with "energy superiority" and proclaimimg to be deploying it aggressively going forward, while at he same time asserting - the continuation of - superiority in space... is it not a bit dumb to hand over leading the global norms in the domain where cyber is/ will be taking place to another player?
- may be the President has had second thoughts, after the fact, and his rather offensive remarks about the person... are not about the person at all :idea: But about being angry with "unintended consequences" of his own actions?

btw, the opening quote comes from https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments ... 1483A1.pdf
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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"
Oil Slides As Middle East Tensions Fade"

Trump too busy on other fronts, and have told the Saudis so?
- also, the Europeans finally pulled their "socks up" and told the Iranians so
... so both sides "pulled off"... it's only me :angel: saying so :lol:

Perhaps, despite this Greta show, something was actually achieved on the sidelines of the UN meeting?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Well,we really don't need the oil price spike now, as
" scarcity of low-risk assets, distorted pricing in financial markets and excessive risk-seeking behaviour in the housing markets" means that there is good old bubble in Europe
- low risk assets being state or state-backed paper (countries can get any financing, without much incentive for consolidation)
- everything else is benchmarked to those ultra-low rates
- so as companies are cautious about investing (in the UK especially), the money goes into bricks & mortar

We are already getting the US/ China trade war (and China is experimenting targeted tactics with Oz, accounting for a third of their exports - and seeing if they can bring a close US ally off that orbit through slowly increasing pressure) which will mean that world trade will be less of an engine for growth... and talking of the UK specifically, we are "soon ;) " due the greatest trade non-liberalisation act ever willingly taken... if you don't count the tactics used against Napoleon, but they worked the other way!
- that's why I started by saying that we need the third nail on the coffin like a hole in the head
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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everything else is benchmarked to those ultra-low rates
- so as companies are cautious about investing (in the UK especially), the money goes into bricks & mortar
As for the coming crunch, the markets have voted on the few of the (current) EU members having their house in order:
"bond markets, where all German government bonds - and the majority of those issued by the Dutch, Austrian and Finnish governments, are trading with a negative yield.
[ by ian king - in sky views]

In other words, investors are actually paying these governments in some or all cases, for the right to lend them money."

Out of the four, though, only two are rigorously stimulating demand through accelerated infrastructure investments (the Dutch and the Finns), rather than exporting deflation to other member (in this case, rather the eurozone) countries
- making people feel richer through inflated asset values will make them spend more, sure, but when reality strikes the adjustment will be sudden and brutal... not good macroeconomics

Funnily enough, Boris Johnson's announced prgrm got it right on this point; but, will his gvmnt be there to deliver the policy change
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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A wakey-wakey call, to avoid excessive internal/ bureaucratic focus:
According to the new working methods of the EU Commission, Joseph Borrell, the EU's new foreign policy chief will brief fellow commissioners weekly, as part of commission president Ursula von der Leyen's efforts to make the executive more geopolitically aware
... looks like a good thing that the new president did an apprenticeship as defence minister
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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A wordier piece on something I've been saying here even before Trump get elected (by BBC's Anthony Zurcher, North America reporter)
- and a thing he does not say at the end is that the US shale industry is due a drastic consolidation, due to the overhang of rapid investments and the related debt on the books , so this will smooth that transition (thru temporarily higher prices) without the "Feds" having to step in, waving cheque books, like what happened with the motor industry and then with the global crash (driven from the US, by the very same institutions that needed rescuing):

" deliver exit from Middle East[?... time to remember the previous campaign's promises ;) ]

"Today, I am going to ask NATO to become much more involved in the Middle East process."

Trump's message to other nations didn't end with negotiating a new Iran deal, either. He wants Nato, the military alliance he has frequently belittled, to step up, too.

It's been a contradiction of Trump's foreign policy that while he frequently speaks of disentangling the US from foreign commitments, he often takes actions that seem to risk miring the US in a wider Middle East conflict.

Now, after ordering a strike against a senior Iranian military official that could have prompted a direct clash with Iranian forces, the president is again talking of scaling back.

The US's economy is booming and is now energy independent, he said, perhaps suggesting - or warning - that it's time for US allies to shoulder more of the Middle East burden.

Of course, Middle East instability can affect the global energy market, raising prices in the US no matter whether that oil and gas comes from North Dakota shale deposits or a Persian Gulf oil well."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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If one is gifted with "energy superiority" and proclaimimg to be deploying it aggressively going forward, while at he same time asserting - the continuation of - superiority in space... is it not a bit dumb to hand over leading the global norms in the domain where cyber is/ will be taking place to another player?
But for now, we are back to the 'boring old oil' - see end of this contribution
According to the new working methods of the EU Commission, Joseph Borrell, the EU's new foreign policy chief will brief fellow commissioners weekly, as part of commission president Ursula von der Leyen's efforts to make the executive more geopolitically aware
... looks like a good thing that the new president did an apprenticeship as defence minister
exit from Middle East[?... time to remember the previous campaign's promises ;) ]

"Today, I am going to ask NATO to become much more involved in the Middle East process."
Yeah, after the UK was kicked out from the driver's seat in 1956, just someone reversing "it" overnight
- NATO Europe is, of course, not just the UK

Go back to the oil shock of the 1970s caused the oil supply curve to shift fundamentally to the left, but over a relatively longer period of time the demand curve also shifted to bring in a new demand supply position at the global level.


The Arab oil embargo during the 1970s had a significant impact on the oil and gas industry and in particular the trading segment of the industry.

The supply did not improve overnight to negate the impact of the rising prices. It took a significant period of time (3 to 5 years) and was facilitated by reinvesting the accumulated revenues caused by the sustained higher prices.


World events and crude oil prices? :) Every time a major event occurs, the crude oil price is the first casualty.
= the price skyrockets, only to be corrected when the supply side strikes a balance by enhancing production. As trading, substituting hydrocarbon supplies pretty much by their 'calorie" content in the market pricing, now instead of years, the correction can be within days.

However, to create new capacity by building new infrastructure, exploring, and adding refining capacity (light vs. heavy; sweet vs. sour, as inputs, and adjustability between them is very limited without further investment, which will not happen -even if decided - overnight) and thereby either de-bottlenecking, or bringing totally new production assets on line.
- can only be facilitated by reinvesting the accumulated revenues (read:sustained higher prices)

- so, the industry input is now (that the primary supply is more domestic) based on a vertically integrated industry view; the current US Administration is listening (as otherwise at the primary production end, without he higher prices, it might need to open the cheque book) and the message to the Trump voters is, at the pumps, this will hurt for a little while, but is will be for the Patriotic Cause... will that play in the elections, come the end of the year that has only just started?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Since Trump said in October 2019 “Let someone else fight over this blood-stained sand,” the runners and riders have come onboard, to rewrite US involvement in the ME. I appreciate that Foreign Affairs (the publication) includes a wide variety of POVs and this excerpt actually comes from a review of a new book, but it still nicely fades away the history between the US having first cut a deal with the Saudis and then a decade later kicking the UK out (as it was seen as a competitor) from the wider ME as part of the Suez debacle
... and now inviting "NATO back" to fill their boots:
"the seemingly intractable violence and instability that have beset the region [has] finally exhausted the United States’ prodigious confidence in its capacity for problem solving. Fifty years ago, the United States began to fill the void left by the British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf and, tentatively at first, take on the role of regional peace broker. For all its flaws—and there were many—U.S. leadership during this period generated some historic dividends, including the 1978 Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt, the 1991 liberation of Kuwait, and the preservation of oil exports in times of intense conflict."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:to fill the void left by the British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf
As you say, "withdrawal" is an interesting word for the British leaving the region. My father worked in the oil industry in Qatar and Iraq from the very early 60's to the early 70s - I don't remember our leaving being particularly "voluntary". I do remember the numerous attempted coup d'etats and, on one occasion having to abandon everything and drive across the desert to Kuwait (long before there was a road). Our battered old Ford Anglia wasn't exactly the ideal vehicle for the trip! We were let back in a while later, only for the regime to change it's mind again after a few years and kick us out again. sometime in 72 or 73 IIRC (this time with a week's notice, rather than 24 hours).
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Trump may have luck on his side, with the 'maximum pressure' policy as an oil - and gas - glut is building up. Reuters brings the word from Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud [:] "that when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia convene for an emergency meeting in March, the grouping will study where the market is and “objectively decide” if more cuts are needed. "
- in short, countries that have been importing oil from Iran have no difficulty with replacing it, though some (China?) may choose not to, for longer-term political goals
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

With Trump substituting immediate impulses and direct actions for foreign policy and thereby vacating America's place as 'the leader of the Free World', it is not just the free world that is shrinking (as a relative share), but more generally the role(s) and importance of all of the great powers in the international system are shrinking.
- this is happening as a result of regional players gaining military capabilities that previously only such main players had (India just tested its first SLBM);
- a decrease in the tolerance of the world powers for sustaining human losses (though not all have the same sensitivity to 'collateral damage';
- the decreased appeal to many countries of being their " strategic foothold",
and - again generally - a growing trend towards prioritising domestic affairs over foreign policy. Individual first; my (political or other) tribe first, the country first (never mind alliance building that might be far more effective - also cost effective - than striving to be the king of the castle at all costs)

China and especially the EU are still geoeconomic powers (only; leave aside the wider SCS region), but Britain is only a regional power... not wanting to play in its region :roll:
- where will that leave Global Britain?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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