Geopolitics and the global economy

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

That "a "European Commonwealth" of the UK, Ukraine, Poland, Baltic States[ & later Turkey ]that would be an "alternative to the EU "
reminds me of the so-called Small Detente that was a total folly, between the WWs and all except one (seen as part of it) got not just run-over, but in many cases gobbled up.

I thought this Boris guy was writing history books? May be they are just biographies... the one on him is not a bad one :thumbup:
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by jedibeeftrix »

How much is this actually intended as an alternative to the EU vs the media wanting to report it as an alternative, because conflict with the EU sells copy?

vs the possibility that it is a different thing doing a separate job to achieve more limited aims...

JEF exists.
It wouldn't take a lot to bring Poland into it, add in a dimension of technology sharing and political coordination, for it to be an extremely effective tool.
A european AUKUS wouldn't be deemed a total folly.
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

jedibeeftrix wrote: 29 May 2022, 08:53 JEF exists.
It wouldn't take a lot to bring Poland into it
V true. But looking into the dvlpmnts over just the last couple of years, the multinational division (NE, A NATO formation) is now a corps while a division-level structure has been stood up further South (HQ'ed from Romania).

JEF has a more definitive maritime orientation (explains why the NL is in it while Poland not) and is not just for the Baltic area (notable difference there to the "Baltic states') but for the whole AO, spanning from the N Sea to the High Arctic (another term that needs revision as the Arctic only starts from the area that the term is used to reference) and then 'down South' to the islands that determine the control of the Baltic - or to be more exact: whether those sealanes stay open.

On the topic, NATO AOs might see some significant revision soon: the new SACEUR about to enter the post. The Madrid summit and with it a new concept (political) to be the cornerstone for military planning over the coming 4 years... and more ;)
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Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)


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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Great article, thank you.

Stays with the title of the tread by leaving only the penguins out in the cold, by the inclusion of this statement:
"it took less than two weeks for Russia to begin begging China for arms and assistance. China has not sent them. If it is no longer a serious military power then Russia has been reduced to just another third-world oil exporter – like a big Eurasian Nigeria, but with terrible demographics. In the end, China will begin to treat it as such."

That was the descriptive part; must read the 'gazing into the future part' more carefully again.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by sunstersun »

https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:28
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept
Gee, what were your negotiators doing? Why'd you agree to this. Were they at a gunpoint like Ukraine?

Somehow Boris can't resign because Ukraine or the Queen's Jubilee, but starting a political and trade war is totally fine while Ukraine is going on.

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:41
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:28
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept
Gee, what were your negotiators doing? Why'd you agree to this. Were they at a gunpoint like Ukraine?

Somehow Boris can't resign because Ukraine or the Queen's Jubilee, but starting a political and trade war is totally fine while Ukraine is going on.
It's a long story, but it dates back to the "backstop" agreed by May - that if other means to obviate a border couldn't be agreed with the EU, NI would remain aligned to EU regulations....she should never have agreed to it, and Irish officials "couldn't believe" that she did. Everything stems from that mistake. But that is neither here nor there. How we got here is not the point, saying that "you agreed to it" doesn't solve the issue

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:03
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:41
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:28
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept
Gee, what were your negotiators doing? Why'd you agree to this. Were they at a gunpoint like Ukraine?

Somehow Boris can't resign because Ukraine or the Queen's Jubilee, but starting a political and trade war is totally fine while Ukraine is going on.
It's a long story, but it dates back to the "backstop" agreed by May - that if other means to obviate a border couldn't be agreed with the EU, NI would remain aligned to EU regulations....she should never have agreed to it, and Irish officials "couldn't believe" that she did. Everything stems from that mistake. But that is neither here nor there. How we got here is not the point, saying that "you agreed to it" doesn't solve the issue
No it doesn't solve the issue, but it is reasonable while the greatest war in Europe since WW2 is going on that the Brits can suck it up and deal with it later.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/p ... 84764.html

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:45
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:03
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:41
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:28
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept
Gee, what were your negotiators doing? Why'd you agree to this. Were they at a gunpoint like Ukraine?

Somehow Boris can't resign because Ukraine or the Queen's Jubilee, but starting a political and trade war is totally fine while Ukraine is going on.
It's a long story, but it dates back to the "backstop" agreed by May - that if other means to obviate a border couldn't be agreed with the EU, NI would remain aligned to EU regulations....she should never have agreed to it, and Irish officials "couldn't believe" that she did. Everything stems from that mistake. But that is neither here nor there. How we got here is not the point, saying that "you agreed to it" doesn't solve the issue
No it doesn't solve the issue, but it is reasonable while the greatest war in Europe since WW2 is going on that the Brits can suck it up and deal with it later.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/p ... 84764.html
Nope, it needs rectifying now. The Belfast Agreement demands it

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:06
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:45
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:03
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:41
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:28
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 01:00 https://www.ft.com/content/315346dc-e1b ... 9297f3fcf5

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 1518dbc93f

Biden's native political instinct is centrism. He wants to hold the Western coalition together through this Ukraine crisis. But most importantly, his gut instinct is closer to taking this opportunity to crush Russia for good.

I wish the UK would stop treating the North Irish border like political football. It's making it harder to convince the Euros.
It's not a political football. It's a a real and genuine issue which needs resolving. The NIP is a mess, and none of the Unionist parties support it as it currently stands. Ergo, in order to uphold the Belfast Agreement (and get Stormont up and running) substantive changes need to be made, not the fiddling around the edges currently being offered/considered by "the Euros" (most of which are essentially contingent on unrealistic, undemocratic and unacceptable whole-UK alignmemt with relevant EU regs). Until "the Euros" understand this, it won't be resolved and the UK will be forced to unilaterally implement the NIP in a way which Unionists can accept
Gee, what were your negotiators doing? Why'd you agree to this. Were they at a gunpoint like Ukraine?

Somehow Boris can't resign because Ukraine or the Queen's Jubilee, but starting a political and trade war is totally fine while Ukraine is going on.
It's a long story, but it dates back to the "backstop" agreed by May - that if other means to obviate a border couldn't be agreed with the EU, NI would remain aligned to EU regulations....she should never have agreed to it, and Irish officials "couldn't believe" that she did. Everything stems from that mistake. But that is neither here nor there. How we got here is not the point, saying that "you agreed to it" doesn't solve the issue
No it doesn't solve the issue, but it is reasonable while the greatest war in Europe since WW2 is going on that the Brits can suck it up and deal with it later.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/p ... 84764.html
Nope, it needs rectifying now. The Belfast Agreement demands it
Well, then don't be surprised when USA and EU turn against you.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-brit ... r-dilemma/

We have an "Irish" President after all.

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by dmereifield »

The integrity of the UK and peace in one of it's constituent parts is far more important than what the US and EU might say or do, if they were to turn against" us. It's an existential issue

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Perhaps he would be happier still, if we did nothing to prevent the outbreak of renewed strife in N. Ireland !

The EU officials liked to crow about how their main aim with the NI Protocol was to protect “The Good Friday Agreement”. however, with the Protocol manifestly failing in that regard, they now want to continue to restrict the UK’s ability to take steps to resolve it.

The Faulty approach of the EU, in trying to make our “leaving it” as difficult as possible and getting Mrs. May to sign the agreement in effect “under duress” has now backfired.

Just because the EU obviously have no regard whatsoever for the “Good Friday Agreement”, do they really think that they have ANY moral justification for advocating that we should not have any regard.for it either.

Perhaps the EU should take its responsibility for events seriously and publicly back any measures that the UK May wish to take to resolve the NI protocol issue ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, after all, there is already one war in Europe. :mrgreen:
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:30 The integrity of the UK and peace in one of it's constituent parts is far more important than what the US and EU might say or do, if they were to turn against" us. It's an existential issue
Lol, pull out the nukes I guess /s

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:36
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:30 The integrity of the UK and peace in one of it's constituent parts is far more important than what the US and EU might say or do, if they were to turn against" us. It's an existential issue
Lol, pull out the nukes I guess /s
No, the concerns of unionists will be treated with parity, as it should have been from day one
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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:30 is far more important than what the US and EU might say or do, if they were to turn against" us. It's an existential issue
Don't have an opinion on this (do like the Irish, which ever side of the border they come from).
- with an affection with numbers, I seem to remember that 27k British troops were deployed at the height of The Troubles
- 27k the total of infantry billets now, before the cuts will come in (I am not saying, and also don't know, if any of those cuts will affect infantry)... just to give a relative measure of the commitment at the time
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Oh well, from NI to the wider scene:

As oil markets have seen prices crash back below $100, over to natural gas, where a perfect storm is shaping up ahead of the 2022/2023 winter season.
- part of Putin's game plan?

Outside the media's lense is (has been) the reliance on China as Beijing is set to control 95% of the global supply chain for solar by 2025.

From Europe's perspective, add to that the strength of the US dollar, which has risen to 20-year highs and reached parity with the euro, will keep commodities (energy, first and foremost) under pressure.

If we get a recession then other commodities will follow that curve - save for agriculturals - down. That much for the commodities 'super-cycle' which so far has been great tip/ story for investing.

"Nicht gut' from the perspective of keeping the European front together (the US does not have the same problems), but Boris might be missed here as the time up to 5 Sept can turn out to be 'awfully' long... and the chess board by then can look quite different (err... geopolitically, but is anyone interested? The Tory Right cannot even figure out who - amongst them - is worthy of being the Great 8-) Leader).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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While energy prices are very high here and in Western Europe, pressure will build in the Middle East and Africa with food prices from both wheat and more importantly fertiliser shortages these will be near term problems for politicians to address.

But the much bigger challenge will be how we wean particularly manufacturing and tech firms off China. When they begin to further tighten the screw on Taiwan and western world respond with varying forms of sanctions we cannot be held hostage. While this we hope is some way off, energy and tax incentives will need to be made to begin onshoring of such an industries and the U.K. a destination of choice. The ground work and infrastructure to support it can be laid now by the new government but it needs to be bold.

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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SW1 wrote: 12 Jul 2022, 22:25 begin onshoring of such an industries and the U.K. a destination of choice.
Agreed. Often near-shoring would be (from the strategic perspective) an equally good and sometimes a quicker/ more feasible alternative,
... but in our great wisdom not long ago we threw road blocks onto this "path'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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Gd to know what the US administration thinks of us!


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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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That was unnecessary: The King David Hotel (1946) vs. Brighton hotel bombing comes first to mind.

But beyond 'bygones': Biden has already gone off to the KSA. To announce (?) to much fanfare that the KSA and Israel will be linked by a direct flight connection.
- building up/ cementing against Iran?

The Saudis are playing up their "arbitrator" position for oil price/ supply and engaging with both China and Russia.
- funnily enough, both of those :crazy: have been actively engaging with Iran (for yonks)

So how does this play out? Perhaps we will know more when Erdogan & Putin will be shaking hands for eternal friendship in Tehran, on the coming Tuesday, wth the new man from there involved, too
- hold on, who is fighting with or alongside whom in Syria :wtf:

Difficult ;) to know about these trades conducted in the Middle East... any opinions?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

Post by SW1 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 15 Jul 2022, 19:13 That was unnecessary: The King David Hotel (1946) vs. Brighton hotel bombing comes first to mind.

But beyond 'bygones': Biden has already gone off to the KSA. To announce (?) to much fanfare that the KSA and Israel will be linked by a direct flight connection.
- building up/ cementing against Iran?

The Saudis are playing up their "arbitrator" position for oil price/ supply and engaging with both China and Russia.
- funnily enough, both of those :crazy: have been actively engaging with Iran (for yonks)

So how does this play out? Perhaps we will know more when Erdogan & Putin will be shaking hands for eternal friendship in Tehran, on the coming Tuesday, wth the new man from there involved, too
- hold on, who is fighting with or alongside whom in Syria :wtf:

Difficult ;) to know about these trades conducted in the Middle East... any opinions?
The enemy of my enemy is my friend! I think sums up the Middle East the sooner we have nothing to do with the region the better, let them sort there own mess out they’ve been at it for centuries.

Turkey and erdogan is a real problem. He clearly sees or thinks the west had a hand in the coup attempt a few years ago and so is running to the extremes. Turkey as a country’s position makes it’s an important NATO partner but I don’t know how detached it political leaders are from the will of its people.

Either he has been sent to have the conversations with Iran and Russian the western powers can’t or he’s saddling up with them I hope it’s the former. Hopefully he’s telling putin not to facilitate giving Tehran the bomb!

As for Biden he has always been a PIRA cheer leader just surprised he’s so public with it this time, though I suspect he hasn’t a clue what he’s saying most of the time.

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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SW1 wrote: 15 Jul 2022, 19:31 Hopefully he’s telling putin not to facilitate giving Tehran the bomb!
Especially as the two (Turkey and Iran, for this occasion) have announced to be ready to go to war (if Turkey's incursions give enough cause for that).

In 2015 Iran was complying with the nuclear reactor deal terms and sending spent nuclear fuel back to Russia
- in 2018, 2 and a half years later, Israeli sources claimed that the traffic had been reversed... well, 2008 Georgia, 2014 Crimea, 2022 Ukraine (and Syria somewhere in-between there)... we would need James Bond A. to find out, and B. to retrieve? IAF/ USAF a more likely scenario (that most believed had receded , in probability)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Geopolitics and the global economy

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On the 3rd of August we will know... how an oil price cap (?) may dent the hold on the gas supply to Europe
- the two fossile energy sources being close substitutes

If the lights go out :crazy: in Europe, then I am sure the US THAAD batteries in or near to Riyadh will :D pack up
... whose side are you on; a pertinent question.

The last time the Saudi Gvmnt tried to modernise ended with the Siege of Mecca (use those words for a search on book titles about what really happened then - and there). There are elements who would try anything for a 'replay' - or just for a chance at one.

Hey-ho: The middle East, as a hinge between three continents (digging into the subtitles of the Churchill volumes on WW2; is there or will there be a parallel?)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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