Geopolitics and the global economy

[Repulse]

There is no point worrying about a tiger two forests away when the bear is at the bottom of the tree your in.

To use your analogy - it’s an old bear that has been badly beaten and whilst it’s still dangerous it isn’t and can’t come up the tree to eat you. The tiger on the other hand can and is slowly coming closer for the kill if you let it.

[SW1]

There is no point worrying about a tiger two forests away when the bear is at the bottom of the tree your in.

To use your analogy - it’s an old bear that has been badly beaten and whilst it’s still dangerous it isn’t and can’t come up the tree to eat you. The tiger on the other hand can and is slowly coming closer for the kill if you let it.

Yes but you need to directly confront the bear right now as military confrontation has been commenced. China needs to be confronted economically and with intelligence the long game before we get to military confrontation or we in the west will do more damage to ourselves than them, we need to wean ourselves off there manufacturers now.

[SW1]

[SW1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/ ... RLYMOHQIU/

Britain formally signed up to the CPTPP trade deal at a ceremony in Auckland today, with six more countries having applied, including China in 2021 and Ukraine most recently in May this year.

Britain’s trade chief, Kemi Badenoch, today signed Britain’s formal accession to join what has until now been a pact among 11 countries of the Asia Pacific region., the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

She hinted that the reason the UK joined was as much geopolitical as economic.

But she said that CPTPP was about much more than boosting exports.

“It’s about the future and the world that we want to live in. Over the next decade, the global economy is set to become ever more interdependent and in this world, our allies are our greatest strength.

“So the UK will use our seat at this table to reinforce the importance of CPTPP’s vision of free and fair trade while upholding each country’s right to regulate according to their own national requirements.”

She said the more CPTPP grew, the more they would all benefit from closer economic ties and through building an even stronger network of free trading nations.”

[SW1]

Interesting development in terms of a alignment of powers as a counter to the g7

https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/169 ... SrZTkNlgBA

[SW1]

The development of supply routes critical to the future economy.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... -in-Africa

TOKYO -- Japan and the U.K. are set to make joint investments in critical minerals in such places as Africa and set up a framework for discussing economic security at the ministerial level, with supply chains on the agenda.

They aim to cooperate in developing mines -- which generally requires dealing with high costs and risks -- and to stabilize the supply of the minerals.

The move comes with the development of cobalt and nickel mines crucial to such environmentally friendly technologies as electric vehicles and wind power in mind. Japan now depends on certain countries, including China, for these minerals. Under the framework, Japan and the U.K. would search for mining sites and set up refining facilities in such mineral-rich areas as Africa to diversify their supply sources.

In Africa, Zambia is known for its production of copper and nickel, while Congo supplies about 70% of the world's cobalt. Many countries are showing interest in Mali's and Ghana's abundant undeveloped areas.

The U.K. agreed with Zambia in August to aim for a total of 3 billion pounds ($3.77 billion) in public and private green investment. Separately, the U.K. and South Africa have agreed to hold a regular ministerial dialogue on critical minerals. Japan is working to strengthen relations with African nations as well, with Nishimura visiting five countries including Namibia in August.

[Ian Hall]

Worth listening to:

The blindsided: How France and Germany cleared the way for Russia
Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

[Ian Hall]

Worth a glance.

https://ecfr.eu/article/polywar-and-pol ... opolitics/

[SW1]

Chinas economic war at sea affecting many countries

https://www.newsweek.com/china-fishing- ... or-1844620

[Ian Hall]

A bit of a slog to read through, but interesting.

https://ecfr.eu/publication/living-in-a ... c-opinion/

[Ian Hall]

https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/west-un ... dor-latvia

[Ian Hall]

Can the Global Spiral of Violence Be Stopped?

STEFAN LEHNE

The turmoil spreading across the globe makes it difficult to meaningfully respond to individual crises. The resulting expectation of impunity is emboldening aggressors.

November 23, 2023

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91104

[Ian Hall]

Topical

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -ambitions

[Ian Hall]

Worth a read.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91309

Europe’s Dangerous Comfort Zone

JUDY DEMPSEY

Reluctant to change the status quo, the EU has failed to adapt to today’s unstable world. In the new year, it must answer tough questions about its security and global role.

December 21, 2023

[SW1]

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... join-BRICS

The BRICS memberships of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Ethiopia officially took effect on Monday.

The countries were invited to join the group in August 2023 after the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS, an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, has received numerous membership requests in recent years.

[Gtal]

Worth a read.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91309

Europe’s Dangerous Comfort Zone

JUDY DEMPSEY

Reluctant to change the status quo, the EU has failed to adapt to today’s unstable world. In the new year, it must answer tough questions about its security and global role.

December 21, 2023

Oh look, american establishment thinktank upset that the massive propaganda campaign unleashed since Biden reclaimed the White House for the status quoists has not managed to generate support for starting a new Cold War or resurrected unquestioned US diplomatic/strategic preeminence among many of its allies..

Hence some concoction is made up about the EU being some flavour of "weak", "deeply divided", "betraying its values", "naive" etc etc, and needing to be more "strategic", or to "prioritise values" or whatever, and of course the approach that would demonstrate "strength" or "strategic thinking" bla bla will inevitably be the course of action Washington would lke to see..

Carnegie's Judy surely is one of the more blatant and well known US foreign policy "Influencers" don't you think?

[Ian Hall]

A couple of interesting opinion pieces:

Orban’s Ukraine gamble is a blow to the EU’s geopolitical ambitions

The EU must tackle the challenge of rogue member states to fulfil its potential as a geostrategic actor.

EXPERT COMMENT
19 DECEMBER 2023 4 MINUTE READ

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/or ... -ambitions

There are three main takeaways from the summit. First, while enlargement is a geostrategic instrument, EU institutions and member states have yet to develop the necessary techniques to deploy it without jeopardizing normative coherence. Second, European unity remains brittle, vulnerable to both internal and external challenges. Third, the EU can no longer ignore the problem of rogue member states and must deal with this challenge as a matter of both urgency and principle – coffee breaks will not suffice.

The EU must face up to its rule of law crisis

There are significant challenges to member states of the European Union (EU) working together, and a growing gap between EU capabilities and expectations.

INTERVIEW
17 MAY 2023 5 MINUTE READ

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/05/eu ... law-crisis

It should be noted that, particularly at the beginning of the war, Ukraine mostly received support from nation states: the US, the UK, and Poland as a member of the EU, but not the EU itself. The EU got its act together eventually and I applaud its efforts with sanctions, support for weapons deliveries, and humanitarian assistance to refugees. But in the actual fight against Russia, it is the nation states which have been decisive since day one.

[Ian Hall]

Belgian's EU presidency programme containing a couple of security and defence mentions under 'foreign affairs':

The Belgian presidency programme sets out the priorities and main directions of the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU. The Belgian term takes place from the 1st of January to the 30th of June 2024.

In the field of security and defence, the Presidency will continue operationalising the Strategic Compass and bolstering the EU’s resilience to new and hybrid challenges. It will focus its efforts on reinforcing the technological and industrial base to ensure security of supply in terms of military capabilities.

Finally, the Presidency will facilitate a broader discussion on the future of EU foreign, development, trade, security and defence policy to help shape the post-2024 Strategic Agenda.

https://belgian-presidency.consilium.eu ... programme/

[Ian Hall]

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/future-zeit ... gy-germany

[Ian Hall]

Worth a read:

Time and again, Europe experiences how China uses its economic power for geopolitical purposes

https://www.egmontinstitute.be/time-and ... -purposes/

[SW1]

A couple of interesting opinion pieces:

Orban’s Ukraine gamble is a blow to the EU’s geopolitical ambitions

The EU must tackle the challenge of rogue member states to fulfil its potential as a geostrategic actor.

EXPERT COMMENT
19 DECEMBER 2023 4 MINUTE READ

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/or ... -ambitions

There are three main takeaways from the summit. First, while enlargement is a geostrategic instrument, EU institutions and member states have yet to develop the necessary techniques to deploy it without jeopardizing normative coherence. Second, European unity remains brittle, vulnerable to both internal and external challenges. Third, the EU can no longer ignore the problem of rogue member states and must deal with this challenge as a matter of both urgency and principle – coffee breaks will not suffice.

The EU must face up to its rule of law crisis

There are significant challenges to member states of the European Union (EU) working together, and a growing gap between EU capabilities and expectations.

INTERVIEW
17 MAY 2023 5 MINUTE READ

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/05/eu ... law-crisis

It should be noted that, particularly at the beginning of the war, Ukraine mostly received support from nation states: the US, the UK, and Poland as a member of the EU, but not the EU itself. The EU got its act together eventually and I applaud its efforts with sanctions, support for weapons deliveries, and humanitarian assistance to refugees. But in the actual fight against Russia, it is the nation states which have been decisive since day one.

This ultimately the EUs problem is its attempting to be a Nation state when national identity is quite strong in a number of states (particularly in those members who lived under oppressive Soviet dictate) that have joined and those states are answerable to there population where the EU political leaders are not.

It really didn’t need to be that way the efta and eea template was a perfectly acceptable construct that did not require the political construct that has developed really since 1993.

[Ian Hall]

https://www.cer.eu/insights/sea-trouble ... do-pacific

[Ian Hall]

Worth reading.

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/british-geo ... nse-europe

[Ian Hall]

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/russias-geostrategic-shifts

[Ian Hall]

An opinion, highly critical but worth reading.

https://ip-quarterly.com/en/future-zeid ... ity-policy