Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

For discussions on politics and current events.

Should the UK now withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest ?!

:wave: Yes!
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61%
:evil: No!
19
39%
 
Total votes: 49

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:I thought it was the Australian PM in hot water (over what access their farmers will actually have) "Morrisons faces 'non-EU' label backlash; "
but reading the piece https://www.aol.co.uk/news/morrisons-ap ... 13611.html one can only laugh

Yeah I thought you were talking about PM as well hadcto reread what you wrote

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

I was reading the latest on the fishing dispute and the NIP whilst surfing the net I came across this, makes for interesting reading


https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-conten ... otocol.pdf

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Pseudo
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Pseudo »

zanahoria wrote:NEW OBR’s Richard Hughes on Brexit -
“so far the data that we've seen on impact of Brexit, especially taking into account fact new trading arrangements came in in January is broadly consistent with assumption we had, which is that it would reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”

News at Eleven: Decision that everyone that had any expertise in the matter said would be a fucking disaster turns out to be a fucking disaster. Idiots that claimed that German car makers and French vinters would force EU to allow full single market access astounded to discover that German cars and French wine are sold in countries other than the UK.
R686 wrote:I would say that the passing of the Benn Act was the most influential Act passed that gave the EU the upper hand in negotiating a decent agreement
The EU always had the upper hand in negotiations. No deal wasn't a threat to the EU any more than holding a gun to your head and threatening to pull the trigger is a threat to someone standing in front of you.
It was the most destructive Bill and Anti UK Bill I have ever seen designed to give the most power to a negotiations competitor in the hope of the most unfavourable deal that the UK will be forced to stay in the EU
I'd say that the decision for the UK to give up its substantial influence in the economic organisation that it is highly dependent on was what was really destructive.

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

Pseudo wrote:
zanahoria wrote:NEW OBR’s Richard Hughes on Brexit -
“so far the data that we've seen on impact of Brexit, especially taking into account fact new trading arrangements came in in January is broadly consistent with assumption we had, which is that it would reduce our long run GDP by around 4%”

News at Eleven: Decision that everyone that had any expertise in the matter said would be a fucking disaster turns out to be a fucking disaster. Idiots that claimed that German car makers and French vinters would force EU to allow full single market access astounded to discover that German cars and French wine are sold in countries other than the UK.
Looking from afar, just my perspective;

You may be right or you may be wrong, but not everyone voted to leave on economic grounds


Pseudo wrote:
R686 wrote:I would say that the passing of the Benn Act was the most influential Act passed that gave the EU the upper hand in negotiating a decent agreement
The EU always had the upper hand in negotiations. No deal wasn't a threat to the EU any more than holding a gun to your head and threatening to pull the trigger is a threat to someone standing in front of you.
I have never really understood the holding of a gun mentally from the remain side, all no deal would have done was even up the trade between the two in regards to imports. the UK was always going to have to import into the country irrespective of point of origin, The EU was fearful of this as it would quite possible put EU products at a disadvantage compared to the price advantage from other third nations, you only have to look at the trade imbalance between the UK/EU. I think trade negotiations with other nations would have been handled a lot faster and with no deal the US would have been in a better position than the EU to take advantage

German car makers and industry were quite worried as the UK was their largest market as no deal was also competing with Trump and his own protectionist policies and possible increased tariffs, if no deal had taken place the EU faced the prospects of increased costs to export to its two biggest markets near the same time. so no it was not an open and shut case for the EU in regards to Brexit

All the Benn act did was take options away from the negotiations table because they knew because of it that they could not walk away without either accepting a very bad deal or revoke A50

Pseudo wrote:
R686 wrote:It was the most destructive Bill and Anti UK Bill I have ever seen designed to give the most power to a negotiations competitor in the hope of the most unfavourable deal that the UK will be forced to stay in the EU
I'd say that the decision for the UK to give up its substantial influence in the economic organisation that it is highly dependent on was what was really destructive.
I dont think so, I think there was a big difference in opinions on the direction that majority of Euro nations were pulling compared to what the UK were thinking. if it didn't happen then I think leaving the EU was inevitable outcome with all the UK opt outs in place

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by tomuk »

Pseudo wrote: News at Eleven: Decision that everyone that had any expertise in the matter said would be a fucking disaster turns out to be a fucking disaster.


A predicted 4% reduction GDP being predicted in the continuing fallout from the pandemic where as such the country is still operating on the status quo before Brexit. The current and future governments could make many changes which could negate that reduction.

A prediction by the OBR who aren't renowned for their accuracy anyway. I can't think of a budget announcement since they were created where the fiscal reality hasn't been different.

I wouldn't describe that as a 'fucking disaster'.
Idiots that claimed that German car makers and French vinters would force EU to allow full single market access
Oddly enough the deal we have ended up with contains clauses to retain an effective single market for cars I wonder why that is ?
Some of the final sticking points in getting a deal over the line were over Rules of Origin in the auto sector and on batteries for electric vehicles in particular. On this there is good news in that there is full bilateral cumulation, allowing UK and EU parts to count towards local content rules in enabling goods like cars to avoid tariffs.

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SKB
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SKB »

I for one am glad to see a reduction of BMW and Audi owning moron "drivers" on England's roads. :mrgreen:

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

tomuk wrote:clauses to retain an effective single market for cars I wonder why that is ?
they are time limited... who would want to write the value of fairly new factories off overnight? The Japanese might have had a few :o words to say (though they have a tradition of holding back whenever possible)
SKB wrote:glad to see a reduction of BMW and Audi owning moron "drivers" on England's roads.
For once we agree :) ; there's always a black Audi tailgating
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

tomuk
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by tomuk »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:they are time limited...
The only time related element is phased reduction in the allowable amount of foreign content (i.e. non EU or UK) for electric and hybrids. This allows the continued tariff free sale of electric\hybrids built using imported battery packs and powertrains.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

tomuk wrote: phased reduction in the allowable amount of foreign content (i.e. non EU or UK)
Well, the industry sees it as us having, once more, created a quillotine... for our own necks:

By Kira Taylor | EURACTIV.com

Jan 21, 2021 (updated: Jan 22, 2021)

The electric vehicle industry has four years to prepare for stricter quotas for non-EU parts [Paul Brennan / Pixabay]

Electric vehicles traded between the EU and the UK have been given a grace period to prevent trade being slammed with tariffs, but battery producers need to start preparing now to meet the deadline, industry sources say.

Under the new EU-UK trade agreement, a maximum of 45% of car parts are allowed to originate from outside the EU in order to benefit from zero-tariff trade between the two sides. Above that threshold, they will face tariffs.

However, because most batteries for electric vehicles come from outside Europe, an annex to the deal grants a grace period for the industry to bring production within its borders.

Until 2023, electric vehicles require at least 40% of content originating from the EU or the UK while batteries require 30% to avoid tariffs. After that, until 2026, electric vehicles require 45% and batteries 50-60%.

“The phase-in addresses a big concern for the industry because to create a battery industry you really need to have scale and demand. The phase-in helps ensure trade can continue, but may not be long enough,” said Nils Poel from CLEPA, the European association of automotive suppliers.

While the industry expects production of electric vehicles, including batteries, to increase in Europe, it can take up to five years to plan and develop a battery plant.

Even EU-produced battery cells contain, at best, around 20-30% of EU originating content, so the 45% requirement would be challenging for electric vehicle producers.

That’s extremely restrictive. I’m not aware of any other rule in any agreement that goes quite as deep in the supply chain as that,” said Jonathan O’Riordon, international trade director at the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA)."
- the bolding added
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

tomuk
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by tomuk »

Well of course the industry is woe is me.
If the car industry had their way they would still be selling us Cortinas/Marina/Vivas with the crash protection of a wet lettuce and the emissions of a small coal fired power station.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by bobp »

tomuk wrote:If the car industry had their way they would still be selling us Cortinas/Marina/Vivas with the crash protection of a wet lettuce and the emissions of a small coal fired power station.


Dont forget my then state of the art rust bucket Morris Minor which was my first car in 1966

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Pseudo wrote:I'd say that the decision for the UK to give up its substantial influence in the economic organisation that it is highly dependent on was what was really destructive.
It's this aspect of Brexit that I find particularly worrying - the loss of influence and soft power on our own continent. I’m not sure the PM himself believes in the Brexit project - it appears to be more of an expedient vehicle for his ascent to power and now a means for keeping him there.

Plenty of fights to pick with the nasty EU to keep people distracted from their declining living standards and quality of life. Brexit isn’t done and it never will be. Just non stop tedious spats that the EU will win every time.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

zanahoria wrote: I’m not sure the PM himself believes in the Brexit project - it appears to be more of an expedient vehicle for his ascent to power and now a means for keeping him there.
Quite, I do get the same impression and am quite tempted to get the 500+ page bio to read over Xmas. Then again, it is missing the 200-300 pages of these shambles (the aftermath... the long day after) so perhaps I'll wait for the next edition.
- let's not forget that he has also made funding decisions to get the nuclear subs and the carrier prgrm 'back' on track and the latest Big Chief nomination is also an indication of more emphasis on becoming a maritime power (again) = money best spent (as long as Tempest delivers and will not turn into a national prestige project)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

No idea Who’s right and who is wrong I’m not an economist from the earlier post to this article a rebuttal



https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/t ... 1636161466

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Quite, I do get the same impression and am quite tempted to get the 500+ page bio to read over Xmas.
You must let me what the bio says about his decision to give his security detail the slip in order to attend Evgeny Lebedev’s party in 2018. Not very much, I’m guessing.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

zanahoria wrote:Plenty of fights to pick with the nasty EU
So far only one "fight" with the EU, over the NIP, which even the most ardent EU supporter has to agree, needs a bit of "tuning" (by which I mean root and branch reform) to achieve the objective of honouring the Good Friday Agreement. Teresa May did NI no favours.

The French (by which I mean Macron) seem to be quite capable of single-handedly generating plenty of "entertainment" without involving the EU.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Caribbean wrote: So far only one "fight" with the EU, over the NIP, which even the most ardent EU supporter has to agree, needs a bit of "tuning" (by which I mean root and branch reform) to achieve the objective of honouring the Good Friday Agreement.
That’s the one fight that’s taking the most real estate on the front pages. Another fight might be where is it more attractive to do business? Where is the talent going? Would foreigners feel welcome here? Where are the main opportunities? The UK or EU? My sense is that it’s no longer the UK.

Re the NIP: If it needs root and branch reform, then why sign up to it? It’s an international agreement of some description, isn’t it? Surely Boris & Co knew what they were agreeing to? Aren’t there experts working for the government who understand how to the identify risks in an agreement of this magnitude? Did nobody warn Boris? Or did he just not care & signed it anyway? If he triggers article 16 does that improve the economic situation in NI? My impression is that businesses are pleased with the Protocol because of the unique situation of being part of the UK and also the CU & SM.

Sorry if it’s a lame response without evidence to back up claims or even any links to relevant sources, but it’s coffee time with the wife & my thumb is getting tired typing on a mobile keyboard :)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by dmereifield »

An OBR forecast of the economy being 4% smaller (eligably than it otherwise would have been if we had not left the EU) in the long term....

Over the long term this is an annual rounding error. It's meaningless, even if it were correct (when was the last time an OBR forecast was correct; they're wrong every quarter and have to be revised). But even if it were, I like most brexit voters would not trade self Governance for a negligible difference in annual GDP growth. Such an economic impact would be negligable compared to the economic impacts foretold during the referendum campaign: a fall in GDP (not just marginally slower GDP growth), emergency budget, FDI drying up, automotive industry packing up and leaving, higher unemployment etc etc

This forecast is not quite the disaster we were led to believe...

Such exaggerations, and treatment of forecasts as facts, is why I gave up on this thread....

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by jedibeeftrix »

zanahoria wrote: Re the NIP: If it needs root and branch reform, then why sign up to it? It’s an international agreement of some description, isn’t it? Surely Boris & Co knew what they were agreeing to?
The word you are looking for is "sequencing".

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

jedibeeftrix wrote:The word you are looking for is "sequencing".
Just what I was about to say! :)
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:treatment of forecasts as facts, is why I gave up on this thread....
Every forecaster, of some ilk, lists the uncertainties that are likely/may affect the so called 'central likelihood'
... but then again, the true believers do not need forecasts (or scenarios) as they KNOW what is right - and what ever comes with it is RIGHT, too :D
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

PS. Lucky for all of us, defence planning has never (so far) defaulted on such 'certainties'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A long stock take of the economy and policies most closely tied with its woes (or otherwise ;) ) in yesterday's Torygraph - those with time invited to read the whole piece: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gniter-rhr

With high fidelity to the thread title, this part stands out:

"Hiding somewhere in the background is the B word - Brexit. The pandemic has made it very difficult to know precisely what impact leaving the EU’s single market has had on the economy, but like a receding tide that exposes the wrecks that lie beneath, we are about to find out.

Beyond an apparent maelstrom of trade deals, most of which are just rollovers from existing EU agreements, there doesn’t as yet seem to be much of a plan for the post Brexit economy, and certainly very little sign of a Brexit dividend.

The Government, moreover, behaves as if it is an embattled revolutionary force still fighting some kind of shady business, City and Whitehall establishment determined to undermine the “will of the people”.

And up to a point, it is right to think that way; business and City elites continue to hold the present leadership in very low regard. Some brave decisions were made on supporting the economy through the pandemic, but on the whole this does not look like the confident, self assured Government needed to deliver the business friendly, low tax environment the economy cries out for.

Almost everything is seen through the prism of Brexit, which partly explains why Boris Johnson got himself into such a mess over the Owen Paterson affair. Rather than focusing on the facts of the case, Paterson became seen at Number 10 as the victim of some kind of anti-Brexit establishment plot. As one of the true believers, Paterson therefore had to be defended to the last. That mindset clouded the Prime Minister’s judgement.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, virtually confirmed the point when asked by the BBC’s Today programme to list what the Government had done to deliver integrity and probity in public life. We honoured our commitment to the people of Britain to deliver Brexit, he replied. "

Can we not just move on? For how much longer can Brexit, and the divisions it stirred, be used as a cover for failings elsewhere?"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

jedibeeftrix wrote: The word you are looking for is “sequencing".


Johnson still signed it. If he didn’t like like it, he should have walked away and gone for “no deal”. Why didn’t he do that and achieve complete “sovereignty”?

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Perhaps the cost of complete “sovereignty” (as in no deal) was thought to be too expensive.

If so, does that mean we’ve left the EU, but are still not 100% sovereign?

Isn’t the reality that we will never be completely sovereign since there are bigger, more powerful countries/trade organisations that will dictate the terms to us in any negotiation? A bit like the EU dictated terms to us in the Brexit negotiations. Isn’t that the future of Brexit?

Of course, nothing lasts forever and one day I’m sure the EU itself will no longer exist, but the irony is that it is the UK with the trade border down the Irish Sea* that looks the less united of the two.

*wasn’t this Johnson’s idea?

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