Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

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sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

R686 wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 17:01
sunstersun wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 04:51 People are oddly proud about being impervious to reason and facts.
Seems to me you are looking at a your own reflection in the mirror
In America 50 % are traitors and the other 50% are patriots. Sadly the traitors can't tell that they are the traitors themselves.

I wonder which the patriots or the traitors do your political positions match the most :)

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 18:11
R686 wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 17:01
sunstersun wrote: 26 Nov 2021, 04:51 People are oddly proud about being impervious to reason and facts.
Seems to me you are looking at a your own reflection in the mirror
In America 50 % are traitors and the other 50% are patriots. Sadly the traitors can't tell that they are the traitors themselves.

I wonder which the patriots or the traitors do your political positions match the most :)
LOL

Very odd statement when you are talking patriots/traitors considering when passing parliamentary/Judiciary sovereignty to a third party

You fought the war of independence against the British on exactly those grounds

So I guess that would put me on the side of a patriots :lol:

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Wealth gives you sovereignty. It helps a state buy powerful weapons to defend itself and protect its interests further afield. It helps pay for embassy staff to promote a government’s point of view. Brexit is putting that at risk by making the UK poorer & less attractive to do business.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 59478.html

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... lications/

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Ironically Brexit Britain’s border appears to be less sovereign with some post Brexit checks to goods that enter the UK from the EU postponed to 1st of January & 1st of July.

https://www.dlapiper.com/en/hungary/ins ... t-britain/

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 16:06 Wealth gives you sovereignty. It helps a state buy powerful weapons to defend itself and protect its interests further afield. It helps pay for embassy staff to promote a government’s point of view. Brexit is putting that at risk by making the UK poorer & less attractive to do business.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 59478.html

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... lications/
You continue to wear short sighted glasses, yes as I said before they expected a drop during transition no one expected the economy to get better buy leaps and bound straight away. in the years to come I expect the UK economy to diversify and continue once covid problems recede and the economy still increases i still call that a success and a return to full sovereignty

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe- ... t-economy/

https://spectator.com.au/2021/05/the-eu ... om-brexit/

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-eu ... 40989.html

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 16:20 Ironically Brexit Britain’s border appears to be less sovereign with some post Brexit checks to goods that enter the UK from the EU postponed to 1st of January & 1st of July.

https://www.dlapiper.com/en/hungary/ins ... t-britain/
Its supposedly a response to covid that supply chains are having problems, but I tend to think its a bit of both covid and setting up the new protocols from within EU, its not like that they have actually moved away from the current standards yet I dont see a real big problem with it

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

R686 wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 18:54 Its supposedly a response to covid that supply chains are having problems, but I tend to think its a bit of both covid and setting up the new protocols from within EU, its not like that they have actually moved away from the current standards yet I dont see a real big problem with it
If the UK keeps postponing the checks of EU goods, doesn’t the WTO get involved at some stage to demand the same treatment for all other exporters to the UK?
R686 wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 18:43 in the years to come I expect the UK economy to diversify and continue once covid problems recede
How many years would be reasonable? Rees Mogg mentioned something like 50 - not quite how Brexit was sold to the masses in 2016. Diversify how? Do you mean less services and a rebalancing back to long departed heavy industry? Or still mainly services but greater emphasis on the fintech and AI? The former won’t happen and I think the latter will struggle to make up for the less efficient trading relationship the UK now has with the EU. I read the articles you linked (thank you for posting them) and I was hoping there would be a bit more detail about how the UK could become a significant economic threat to the EU. All the industries mentioned are less attractive/more constrained outside the EU. Take education: no ERASMUS so no free flowing academic exchanges with the highly educated population on the UK’s doorstep. UK students I suppose have the Turing exchange program, but that favours students from wealthier backgrounds who can afford to travel to the US or Australia. Financial services are also diminished. Of course London is still important, but tax receipts will have been reduced when some operations move to Dublin, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris.

When Politic describes a closer relationship with the US in terms of “subjugation”:

“Even subjugation brings the benefits of proximity, relevance and inclusion in Washington’s wider geopolitical strategies.”

That’s not exactly sovereignty is it? At least the UK had a veto in the EU. :)

Maybe Brexit will be deemed a success in 50 years. Personally I can’t help thinking that it’s more about lining the pockets of billionaires, protecting tax havens, denying oversight over money laundering & tax avoidance than actually benefitting the majority of the people that live there.

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33
R686 wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 18:54 Its supposedly a response to covid that supply chains are having problems, but I tend to think its a bit of both covid and setting up the new protocols from within EU, its not like that they have actually moved away from the current standards yet I dont see a real big problem with it
If the UK keeps postponing the checks of EU goods, doesn’t the WTO get involved at some stage to demand the same treatment for all other exporters to the UK?
I imagine that there would be a litmus test, but with the pandemic and all nations impacted the EU is getting a free ride in this regard, hence why I am skeptical on the EU response to ant invocation to A16 of the NIP from the EU at trade will be impacted both ways
zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33
R686 wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 18:43 in the years to come I expect the UK economy to diversify and continue once covid problems recede
How many years would be reasonable? Rees Mogg mentioned something like 50 - not quite how Brexit was sold to the masses in 2016. Diversify how?
You are being a little bit dishonest with that comment, he actually said the overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years, which is correct after all is was a little over 10 years from joining the EU that UK manufacturing really declined

nothing more attests to this than the October 2013 government report “Future of Manufacturing”1951 and 1973 metals output rose 3% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has declined by more than 6% Between 1951 and 1973 food and drink output rose by 5.6% per year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by 1% a year. Between 1951 and 1973 textiles output expanded at 2.6% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by more than 6% a year.

It wasn't all Beer and skittles when we joined the EEC, NZ is a good show case for diversify trade than relying on the EU after all the shock to its economy when the UK joined the EEC


zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 Do you mean less services and a rebalancing back to long departed heavy industry? Or still mainly services but greater emphasis on the fintech and AI? The former won’t happen and I think the latter will struggle to make up for the less efficient trading relationship the UK now has with the EU. I read the articles you linked (thank you for posting them) and I was hoping there would be a bit more detail about how the UK could become a significant economic threat to the EU. All the industries mentioned are less attractive/more constrained outside the EU.
I agree heavy industry wont go back to the halcyon days of the past, but the UK can be smarter in ensuring what remains by having a vibrant future giving precedent to home grown manufacturing instead of EU public tendering rules in which every member nation can bid, would the UK economy exceed all expectations and become larger overall than the EU combined, no can the UK still hold its place within the top economies around the world, yes I think it can
zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 Take education: no ERASMUS so no free flowing academic exchanges with the highly educated population on the UK’s doorstep. UK students I suppose have the Turing exchange program, but that favours students from wealthier backgrounds who can afford to travel to the US or Australia. Financial services are also diminished. Of course London is still important, but tax receipts will have been reduced when some operations move to Dublin, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris.
it appears ERASMUS is not all its cracked up to be

https://www.facts4eu.org/news/2021_aug_ ... ths_busted#

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 When Politic describes a closer relationship with the US in terms of “subjugation”:

“Even subjugation brings the benefits of proximity, relevance and inclusion in Washington’s wider geopolitical strategies.”

That’s not exactly sovereignty is it? At least the UK had a veto in the EU. :)

Maybe Brexit will be deemed a success in 50 years. Personally I can’t help thinking that it’s more about lining the pockets of billionaires, protecting tax havens, denying oversight over money laundering & tax avoidance than actually benefitting the majority of the people that live there.
What you conflict subjugation and sovereignty mean that the UK can either freely enter into it or not,

Under the EU veto rules are not really understood depending on what level of government we are talking about, some might need a majority to side with it to veto a proposal.

When a veto is not a veto

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6023507/w ... y-council/

https://billothewisp.blogspot.com/2016/ ... -used.html

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 If the UK keeps postponing the checks of EU goods, doesn’t the WTO get involved at some stage to demand the same treatment for all other exporters to the UK?
Because there's a free-trade agreement in place. There are also ongoing discussions over refinements to that FTA. That trumps the "most favoured nation" issue. Even if there wasn't, there is a minimum ten-year grace period before the WTO would even consider a complaint from a third party
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by jedibeeftrix »

zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 How many years would be reasonable? Rees Mogg mentioned something like 50 - not quite how Brexit was sold to the masses in 2016.
if we worried exclusively about threats that directly impact growth trends we'd never elect the labour party with its penchant for raising taxes.

we do have other concerns tho, and people do vote for labour gov'ts for good and valid reasons. the sam principle might apply here too.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Caribbean wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 23:52
zanahoria wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 21:33 If the UK keeps postponing the checks of EU goods, doesn’t the WTO get involved at some stage to demand the same treatment for all other exporters to the UK?
Because there's a free-trade agreement in place. There are also ongoing discussions over refinements to that FTA. That trumps the "most favoured nation" issue. Even if there wasn't, there is a minimum ten-year grace period before the WTO would even consider a complaint from a third party
Thanks - I didn’t know that. 10 years seems like a decent grace period.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

zanahoria wrote: 28 Nov 2021, 21:21 Thanks - I didn’t know that. 10 years seems like a decent grace period.
WTO rules are pretty pragmatic (not surprising when you consider the difficulty of getting every country on the planet to buy into them). They don't want to create a sense of grievance by imposing over-ambitious targets on countries and they recognise that trade agreements can be long-winded and complex (and subject to repeated re-negotiation over time)

In the long run, the WTOs objective is that the entire planet trades tariff and quota free, with the elimination of all non-tariff barriers to trade. They are not interested in assisting countries settle political scores.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

R686 wrote: 27 Nov 2021, 23:47 can the UK still hold its place within the top economies around the world, yes I think it can
I hope you’re right.

sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59506556

Ze EU is wrong, ze USA is wrong, ze Boris is right.

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 02 Dec 2021, 22:46 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59506556

Ze EU is wrong, ze USA is wrong, ze Boris is right.

If that is even remotely right not much difference between the US and China, using trade as coercion

Just my2cents worth

Repulse
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Repulse »

R686 wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 08:03
sunstersun wrote: 02 Dec 2021, 22:46 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59506556

Ze EU is wrong, ze USA is wrong, ze Boris is right.

If that is even remotely right not much difference between the US and China, using trade as coercion

Just my2cents worth
I would add my 2 cents to that also. The EU is still on the theme to punish Britain to make Brexit look as bad as possible whilst the French elections are on - I don't like it, but I can understand the self preservation.

Elements of the US political class have always played up their Irish roots to given themselves some standing and fifth to tenth generation Irish votes. Just a shame that some have gone to lengths of supporting Irish terrorism to do this. However, and it's equally the fault of the UK government for not explaining harder, the Good Friday Agreement rests equally on the support from Unionists which are still the majority and both the EU and US backing the nationalist either publicly or through their actions will not end well.

Unfortunately. I cannot see a way of getting all parties to step back and come with fresh thinking apart from triggering Article 16, which is lawful and part of the treaty. By the EU and US threatening serious consequences of taking this lawful action, it is actually making things harder not easier. Having said that, the UK government at the same time needs to come with a new mindset (though maybe a new lead will come in after Frost has triggered A16).
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

The US like the EU is trying to get UK to live up to their commitments. No it's not like China at all, but whatever troll on.

If only the UK was part of a Union that the economic and political weight to stand up to China/USA(on trade) when it comes down to it.

Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.

We all want the UK to be powerful, rich and prospering, but continuing down this Brexit path is the opposite of that. Step 1 vote for the Lab and out the Cons who have been in power for like 15 years with a disastrous record.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11 The US like the EU is trying to get UK to live up to their commitments. No it's not like China at all, but whatever troll on.
It’s exactly like China during trade against Australia to get a political change they desire

And yes the UK is living up to the trade agreement

sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11 If only the UK was part of a Union that the economic and political weight to stand up to China/USA(on trade) when it comes down to it.
Australia is smaller than UK economic wise, but the coercion hasn’t exactly worked out for China has it?

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by TheLoneRanger »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11
Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.
Please stop putting up random made up numbers on the economy and saying brexit was the cause.

Every single dooms-day scenario and every single negative econonomic consequence of Brexit has been pretty much proven false ....

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

TheLoneRanger wrote: 04 Dec 2021, 09:55
sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11
Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.
Please stop putting up random made up numbers on the economy and saying brexit was the cause.

Every single dooms-day scenario and every single negative econonomic consequence of Brexit has been pretty much proven false ....

How's that 350 mil savings from Brexit lol.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

[/quote]
How's that 350 mil savings from Brexit lol.
[/quote]
Teresa May blew it all on the NHS when she increased their budget by £20b a year back in June 2018. Work out for yourself how much that is a week.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 20:20
TheLoneRanger wrote: 04 Dec 2021, 09:55
sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11
Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.
Please stop putting up random made up numbers on the economy and saying brexit was the cause.

Every single dooms-day scenario and every single negative econonomic consequence of Brexit has been pretty much proven false ....

How's that 350 mil savings from Brexit lol.
Well considering that this is the 1st year that the UK did not have to pay EU members fees contributions and would have been in excess of £18 billion plus any off book contributions this year


One such off book contributions is for the European Peace Facility (EPF), which I think from memory was about £5-6b

Do that math on that I’m sure it would not go to far off the magical £350m per week

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

One also must take into account that the EU itself will borrow €750 billion to be given away in grant and borrow to member nations

Who’s paying it back?

Member nations

Repulse
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Repulse »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11 The US like the EU is trying to get UK to live up to their commitments. No it's not like China at all, but whatever troll on.

If only the UK was part of a Union that the economic and political weight to stand up to China/USA(on trade) when it comes down to it.

Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.

We all want the UK to be powerful, rich and prospering, but continuing down this Brexit path is the opposite of that. Step 1 vote for the Lab and out the Cons who have been in power for like 15 years with a disastrous record.
Unless you are purposely trolling to raise a debate, then I suggest you rely less on UK hating media outlets for information. I'd also suggest you resist reading too much into French, ex-UK establishment and any other sources with a political agenda and a sore loser temperament.

The truth is that it's too early still to make any real assessment. COVID has had a massive impact, with countries being impacted at different times, means that any "doppelganger" comparison is non-sense. So is any pre-Brexit predictions on growth. Also, Brexit was always going to have a -ve effect in the short term as the economy re-adjusted.

All I can tell you is that despite the doomsday analysis of certain elements of the press the UK is still here, there are no shortages of any real significance, employment is up, we are still engaged globally and there are no riots on the streets. The government is also do relatively well in the polls given they are mid term, and support for Scottish Independence is falling as they see the SNP lies for what they are.
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

Repulse wrote: 06 Dec 2021, 09:02
sunstersun wrote: 03 Dec 2021, 20:11 The US like the EU is trying to get UK to live up to their commitments. No it's not like China at all, but whatever troll on.

If only the UK was part of a Union that the economic and political weight to stand up to China/USA(on trade) when it comes down to it.

Instead 5 years wasted, 20% economic hit inflicted all for people to spout nonsense about courts and sovereignty lol. Scotland basically up in arms for an indy vote.

We all want the UK to be powerful, rich and prospering, but continuing down this Brexit path is the opposite of that. Step 1 vote for the Lab and out the Cons who have been in power for like 15 years with a disastrous record.
Unless you are purposely trolling to raise a debate, then I suggest you rely less on UK hating media outlets for information. I'd also suggest you resist reading too much into French, ex-UK establishment and any other sources with a political agenda and a sore loser temperament.

The truth is that it's too early still to make any real assessment. COVID has had a massive impact, with countries being impacted at different times, means that any "doppelganger" comparison is non-sense. So is any pre-Brexit predictions on growth. Also, Brexit was always going to have a -ve effect in the short term as the economy re-adjusted.

All I can tell you is that despite the doomsday analysis of certain elements of the press the UK is still here, there are no shortages of any real significance, employment is up, we are still engaged globally and there are no riots on the streets. The government is also do relatively well in the polls given they are mid term, and support for Scottish Independence is falling as they see the SNP lies for what they are.

Dam no like button yet :angel:

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