Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[RetroSicotte]

Bingo, Pseudo.

Denying it would only make it worse.

[arfah]

............

[SKB]

Poll Reminder: You can change your vote if your opinion has changed

[Cooper]

Seeking independence from Westminster in order to be governed by Brussels.

..anyone but the English?

Bingo, Pseudo.

Denying it would only make it worse.

Where does it end though?

All this constitutional uncertainty has an effect on all of us, all 65m people, right now, we have a situation where less than 2m people in Scotland are holding the very future of the UK to ransom, threatening separation every time a decision is taken they don't like.

There has to come a point where the rest of the UK says enough is enough.

If they lose a 2nd vote, there will still be people in the SNP agitating for a 3rd and 4th and so on.

...at some point, Westminster is going to have to say 'No more'.

[RetroSicotte]

Where does it end though?

All this constitutional uncertainty has an effect on all of us, all 65m people, right now, we have a situation where less than 2m people in Scotland are holding the very future of the UK to ransom, threatening separation every time a decision is taken they don't like.

There has to come a point where the rest of the UK says enough is enough.

If they lose a 2nd vote, there will still be people in the SNP agitating for a 3rd and 4th and so on.

...at some point, Westminster is going to have to say 'No more'.

There is no fast or definable point at which it becomes 'ended'.

Just a really crappy situation, that will last so long as this generation of complete idiots in Scotland's population still exists and is able to pump their ridiculous concepts onto an entirely ignorant group of people.

Until the Scottish population can learn to look at evidence and accept cold hard facts without denying them to go harp on hashtags and social media instead in their little echo chambers, this will continue.

[Cooper]

There is no fast or definable point at which it becomes 'ended'.

I think you're wrong, and the decision to leave the UK won't be made by them..but for them, by the rest of the UK.

The SNP and its supporters are doing real harm to the UK's standing, they don't care about the well being of the country.

It can't and won't be allowed to go on forever.

If it's allowed to fester we could end up with a partitioned Scotland, similar to Northern Ireland, if a vote for separation is achieved with the smallest of margins, 1% or 2%, will the 48/49% who didn't want to leave the UK accept it?

[Pseudo]

An interesting subset of this debate is what would happen to Shetland and Orkney in the event of Scottish secession. Since they'd likely be unhappy about going in with an independent Scotland, would the newly independent Scottish government permit them a referendum on staying with the UK in some way? There's obviously a very clear reason why an independent Scotland wouldn't be keen to do so, but it'd be morally indefensible not to allow it. That could cause some serious problems for the negotiations, particularly if Shetland and/or Orkney were to unilaterally stage a referendum that results in a strong vote to stay with the UK.

What if Shetland and Orkney unilaterally declared independence from Scotland and requested crown dependence status? Could, would or should the UK refuse the request? I'm not sure that they could refuse prior to official Scottish independence without at least superficially damaging the UK claims on other disputed territories.

[RetroSicotte]

Scotland doesn't have anything approaching the determined willingness of Northern Ireland to take drastic measures to put such measures in place. If it happened, then it'd just happen. And then we'd never get a vote to rejoin. There would be no referendum to "stay" with the UK anywhere.

They get to keep asking the question over and over, but if they got it by even the tiniest of margins I can promise you there would never be a vote to the other way ever again. The SNP are like a desperate boyfriend asking his girl for sex and knowing she only has to agree once for him to get what he wants.

And as much harm as all this does, it'd be even worse if they were to leave. Trident would very likely disappear forever, the UKs main shipbuilding area would disappear, lots of men and equipment would disappear, a huge portion of the UKs income and GDP would disappear, its population would have shrunk, tourism would drop significantly and the UK would be seen as the faltering, fracturing weak country that it would then genuinely be.

All the drama of the SNP is bad, but the harsh reality is letting them have their way is a far worse option.

[WhitestElephant]

It does indeed seam silly that the SNP can push for a referendum again, and again, and again until they get the desired result. Then, no matter how large or small a margin the majority voted for independence (say 51% v 49%), Scotland is out forever.

Why not make it such, that in order for Scotland to break away from the United Kingdom, its needs to win a proper majority in three consecutive referendums, over a period defined as a "generation". This way, you can be actually sure it is overwhelmingly the wishes of the Scottish people... and not just a brief surge in misguided nationalism (as we are currently seeing).

I would personally define a generation as approximately 20 years - I.e from a persons birth to their graduating from university.

[SKB]

Even if Scotland did leave the UK, they wouldn't automatically be admitted into the EU, they would have to apply for membership then go through all the admittance tests and standards which could take up to a decade. Meanwhile, they would be totally on their own, financially sustained by oil at $30 a barrel, sales of whisky, shortbread biscuits, tourism and IMF bailouts. RN Ship building would probably move south too.

Back in the 2014 Scottish Referendum, I always thought it very strange that the SNP ('Scottish Nazi Party') wanted Scotland to break out of the union of the United Kingdom, to gain their 'freedom', just so they could enter into the European Union then give up their 'freedom' to be in it.

[JayDee]

they would have to apply for membership then go through all the admittance tests and standards which could take up to a decade.

Didn't spain say they would veto scotlands membership of the EU?

[SKB]

Didn't spain say they would veto scotlands membership of the EU?

Yes, Spain risks losing its Catalonia region to its own independence movement if Spain agreed to Scottish membership of the EU.

[RetroSicotte]

It does indeed seam silly that the SNP can push for a referendum again, and again, and again until they get the desired result. Then, no matter how large or small a margin the majority voted for independence (say 51% v 49%), Scotland is out forever.

Why not make it such, that in order for Scotland to break away from the United Kingdom, its needs to win a proper majority in three consecutive referendums, over a period defined as a "generation". This way, you can be actually sure it is overwhelmingly the wishes of the Scottish people... and not just a brief surge in misguided nationalism (as we are currently seeing).

I would personally define a generation as approximately 20 years - I.e from a persons birth to their graduating from university.

Thats why the last vote was such a farce.

Votes like that are supposed to be "significant majority". ie - You need to win over 60% for your case to make it happen.

But the SNP wrangled it into a 50/50 thing because MUH FAIRNESS went big on social media. You have to remember the SNPs primary audience are a bunch of barely aware "social justice warrior" fanatics who have no grounding in fact or reason whatsoever and exist purely to "fight the power" on everything. So they harped up on "60/40 IS UNFAIR" and the SNP pushed the button on how it was Westminster stacking the odds.

It is every bit as frustrating to deal with as it sounds. Bunch of lunatic morons.

[jedibeeftrix]

"Wait for EU reforms and then decide."

There is a difference between what i want to happen, and how i will vote regardless:

The economic argument is neither here nor there. We could thrive or whither if we leave, and just the same if we stay. Success or failure will largely be determined by policy response either way. Importantly for me, the way to thrive outside is to double-down as a lean market economy with low taxes and low regulation. That is obviously scary if you are of a left-wing bent, having come to a new appreciation of the disinterest the electorate has in continental style collective solidarity, but I am relaxed about the prospect.

What I want:
I want Cameron to find a deal that will preserve essential economic/judicial sovereignty from the growing threat of an ECB managed eurozone 'consensus', essentially a caucus justified by tools such as the European Banking Union and implemented via Qualified Majority Voting. If he pulls that off then I will not mind if we remain within.

How I will vote:
I will likely vote out regardless, for even if we get a good deal I do not want a thumping "remain" vote to be taken as a mandate by a future labour government to throw away all that Cameron bargained for. I remember the Social Chapter opt-out, something Major bled to achieve and Blair blithely discarded.

[arfah]

............

[Pseudo]

While I don't think that it will be politically feasible, I'm definitely coming around to the idea that should the UK vote to leave the EU then Scotland and Northern Ireland's best move would be to enter in to federation with the Republic of Ireland. It'd solve all concerned's immediate problems with Brexit as well as forestalling some of the unintended consequences of Scottish secession.

[S M H]

I suspect that our Scottish political fish will publically campaign for us to remain in the European Union while secretly whishing for a no vote to engineer a push for independence. I would not put it for the die hard separatists in the S.N.P. to vote tactilely. That is semi unofficially organised. If Scotland voted no by a small margin this would this would be interesting to see the S.N.P. spin on the result.

[marktigger]

While I don't think that it will be politically feasible, I'm definitely coming around to the idea that should the UK vote to leave the EU then Scotland and Northern Ireland's best move would be to enter in to federation with the Republic of Ireland. It'd solve all concerned's immediate problems with Brexit as well as forestalling some of the unintended consequences of Scottish secession.

I would suggest if Politicians in Northern Ireland went for any federation there would be uproar. this year is going to be interesting with Easter Rising 100, Somme 100 and Assembly elections never mind the EU referendum

[~UNiOnJaCk~]

I had made up my mind on the direction in which i will vote in this referendum some time ago, and that hasn't changed after today. Looking purely at things from the perspective of what Cameron had originally set out to achieve then i would say it has largely been a complete and utterly failure, if not even an outright capitulation in the face of the EU's strong-arm tactics. What he has managed to bring back are crumbs that the nation is expected to be grateful for in the eyes of Junkers and co. There was always the very well founded suggestion that Cameron's demands, even in their original forms, were simply beating round the bush and failing to get to the heart of issues in hand; today just affirms that even more.

Now, i am likely to vote to remain within the EU but this will by no means be reflective of my attitude to the institution itself - it will be a vote based purely on my concerns about the wellbeing of the United Kingdom, not an affirmation of my confidence or deep-seated love for the EU. if anything, the 'concessions' they have allegedly offered us has only embittered me to the institution even more - the inability to propose a unilateral rejection of EU legislation deemed undesirable, the requirement that we have to seek both permission and consensus to apply welfare spending caps which is tantamount to a loss of sovereign spending policy (even though i personally don't feel that the welfare issue in regards to EU migrants is actually an issue in the first place - in fact i consider it to be an absurd scapegoat - i am simply unhappy about the fact that Cameron has been forced to step down from what he wanted to achieve).

It's beyond belief and only shows just how much sovereignty we have surrendered as a nation. On top of that, it i heard correctly, we don't even have the exemption clause guarantees in the face of political union proposals either. What did Cameron manage to achieve exactly? If anything, I’d say the EU has done a 180 on us and turned the thumb screws a few notches tighter and to top it off we have squandered our once in a generation opportunity to negotiate for a better settlement. We’re stuck with this lacklustre situation now. If I were Cameron, and wanted to show I had a spine, I would tack the initiative and take unilateral steps to implement the measures I wanted to be seen put in place and then wait to see how the EU reacted.

[bobp]

Well after reading the various media outlets on the UK negotiations I have decided to join the NO camp. The only thing that will change my mind is the UK getting full sovereign power. I voted in the very first referendum to join, having been told it was all about trade and a Common Market. I have never had a say since with all the follow on treaties etc for what is an undemocratic EU with most new laws coming from an unelected group of cronies.

[arfah]

............

[Cooper]

Now, i am likely to vote to remain within the EU but this will by no means be reflective of my attitude to the institution itself - it will be a vote based purely on my concerns about the wellbeing of the United Kingdom

If the UK cannot survive, in its current form, an exit from the EU in a democratic referenda of the people..then it's time is up.

If the Scot's regard EU membership as more valuable than UK membership, then for everyone concerned, its better they go as soon as possible, same goes for NI or Wales.

[jedibeeftrix]

"Wait for EU reforms and then decide."

There is a difference between what i want to happen, and how i will vote regardless:

The economic argument is neither here nor there. We could thrive or whither if we leave, and just the same if we stay. Success or failure will largely be determined by policy response either way. Importantly for me, the way to thrive outside is to double-down as a lean market economy with low taxes and low regulation. That is obviously scary if you are of a left-wing bent, having come to a new appreciation of the disinterest the electorate has in continental style collective solidarity, but I am relaxed about the prospect.

What I want:
I want Cameron to find a deal that will preserve essential economic/judicial sovereignty from the growing threat of an ECB managed eurozone 'consensus', essentially a caucus justified by tools such as the European Banking Union and implemented via Qualified Majority Voting. If he pulls that off then I will not mind if we remain within.

How I will vote:
I will likely vote out regardless, for even if we get a good deal I do not want a thumping "remain" vote to be taken as a mandate by a future labour government to throw away all that Cameron bargained for. I remember the Social Chapter opt-out, something Major bled to achieve and Blair blithely discarded.

now more content that my out vote will be both desirtable as well as necessary.

useful bump, so won't cry if we remain in.

[marktigger]

I feel cameron has blown it he started at a low base and didn't push. I suspect the actual deal has crystalised many peoples thoughts.

[IrishT]

Just on the point about the Northern Peace Process - most people in the Republic support Britain remaining in the EU (75%). A majority also supports all of Cameron's demands (58% for national sovereignty, 59% for opt-out of closer Union, 54% for restrictions on migrants from less developed regions, and 70% for ending child benefit for those abroad).

While it's not going to be of any note during the British referendum, it does show that common membership and working on mutually beneficial issues within Europe has brought us closer together - and hopefully we can maintain this relationship in regards to Northern Ireland if you leave.