Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[SKB]

David Cameron says UK will hold EU Referendum not in 2017, but instead in 2016!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... -live.html

[marktigger]

i suspect it'll be the 1st EU referendum which the country will vote to leave then the real negioations will start when countries like Germany, France and Poland start to realise the budgetry implications of the UK leaving.

[Pseudo]

Based on revenue and expenditure, the UK leaving the EU would only result in a net loss to the EU budget of around €6bn from a total budget of over €140bn. I expect that the EU can afford a net loss of around 4% of its budget in exchange for losing 12.5% of its population.

[SKB]

Here's what the official EU Referendum ballot paper looks like:

[RetroSicotte]

Based on revenue and expenditure, the UK leaving the EU would only result in a net loss to the EU budget of around €6bn from a total budget of over €140bn. I expect that the EU can afford a net loss of around 4% of its budget in exchange for losing 12.5% of its population.

They'd be getting a decent chunk of it right back if we leave the EU, when Scotland immediately leaves the Union.

Been saying it again and again and again. And it keeps seeming to fall without anyone realising the ramifications of internal issues in a rush to make a rash short term decision.

[WhitestElephant]

Based on revenue and expenditure, the UK leaving the EU would only result in a net loss to the EU budget of around €6bn from a total budget of over €140bn. I expect that the EU can afford a net loss of around 4% of its budget in exchange for losing 12.5% of its population.

They'd be getting a decent chunk of it right back if we leave the EU, when Scotland immediately leaves the Union.

Been saying it again and again and again. And it keeps seeming to fall without anyone realising the ramifications of internal issues in a rush to make a rash short term decision.

Would Westminster permit another referendum?

[GibMariner]

Based on revenue and expenditure, the UK leaving the EU would only result in a net loss to the EU budget of around €6bn from a total budget of over €140bn. I expect that the EU can afford a net loss of around 4% of its budget in exchange for losing 12.5% of its population.

They'd be getting a decent chunk of it right back if we leave the EU, when Scotland immediately leaves the Union.

Been saying it again and again and again. And it keeps seeming to fall without anyone realising the ramifications of internal issues in a rush to make a rash short term decision.

An independent Scotland would find it very hard, most likely impossible to re-enter the EU. Even if it could overcome having its application vetoed by other countries, it could be a long, drawn-out affair.

[Pseudo]

They'd be getting a decent chunk of it right back if we leave the EU, when Scotland immediately leaves the Union.

They'd be getting most of it back through our contributions to the EFTA anyway. Though, eve if the UK had voted to leave the EU, I think that an independent Scotland would still face fierce Spanish objections to their membership.

Been saying it again and again and again. And it keeps seeming to fall without anyone realising the ramifications of internal issues in a rush to make a rash short term decision.

Yes, a lot of people seem to completely ignore how important our membership of the EU is to the continuing peace process in Northern Ireland. The loss of EU membership and how that changes the North's relationship with the Republic combined with Scottish secession could have some dire consequences for the province.

[RetroSicotte]

Would Westminster permit another referendum?

Yes. If they don't, they'd only be giving more and more ammo to the SNP to drive the "WE'RE BEING OPPRESSED AND DENIED DEMOCRACY" angle.

An independent Scotland would find it very hard, most likely impossible to re-enter the EU. Even if it could overcome having its application vetoed by other countries, it could be a long, drawn-out affair.

It'd take a time. But either it'd take the time or it wouldn't. Either way it'd be an economic ruin and the UK would suffer dramatically because of it, especially in the defence sector.

I cannot overstate how much the zealous "Yes" movement is riding on this vote as a trigger to "Yes2" kicking off. Anyone not in Scotland simply does not understand how nigh on "religious war of fervant desire" this is right now up here.

[GibMariner]

Yes. If they don't, they'd only be giving more and more ammo to the SNP to drive the "WE'RE BEING OPPRESSED AND DENIED DEMOCRACY" angle.

Agreed.

An independent Scotland would find it very hard, most likely impossible to re-enter the EU. Even if it could overcome having its application vetoed by other countries, it could be a long, drawn-out affair.

It'd take a time. But either it'd take the time or it wouldn't. Either way it'd be an economic ruin and the UK would suffer dramatically because of it, especially in the defence sector.

I cannot overstate how much the zealous "Yes" movement is riding on this vote as a trigger to "Yes2" kicking off. Anyone not in Scotland simply does not understand how nigh on "religious war of fervant desire" this is right now up here.

On the contrary, I understand very well and it is a scenario that could very well happen. However, that doesn't mean that pigs will suddenly take flight and indy-Scotland will be admitted into the EU, with at least one member who will do everything possible to prevent that happening - certain larger countries might be able to force the issue, but I doubt Scotland would be important enough to risk further destabilising an already fragile EU. I have more confidence in the rump-UK weathering the ensuing economic storm than an isolated single-party state.

[Pseudo]

Given that Brexit would be disastrous for N.I. and also likely trigger Scottish secession, yet neither would have an easy route back in to the EU. Might a way around that be for them to 'join' the Republic of Ireland, which would then become a federal state with three largely autonomous regions. I imagine that there's good reasons why this couldn't work, but superficially it'd seem to solve a lot of the problems that Brexit would bring for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[arfah]

............

[RetroSicotte]

I don't, because it doesn't matter if the UK can "weather" losing Scotland. Simple facts remain. Losing Scotland will hurt the UK a lot more than it will hurt to leave the EU...and there'd be both to deal with.

We can keep pushing for greater distancing from them, for better deals. No deal is worth the Union being fracutured forever and turning the lives of over 5 million people up here into a misery (voted for or not). That often goes unspoken. I do not want to live in a country rapidly failing because of its pride. I don't want to lose my job because Yes2 got social media trending. I don't want to lose my identity of being part of a strong country, nor do I want to leave the geographical area I love and have so much that matters to me in to "stay British".

If we leave the EU, an IndyRef will be called. SNP have said this directly.

If another one is called, it'll have the whole pro-EU crowd on board, which is by far the majority in Scotland.

Tens of thousands of jobs will be lost as the shipbuilding disappears. Thousands of military jobs will be lost as we drop to the SNPs insane "defence force" numbers. Bases will be shut. Trident will be screwed. Many many jobs will leave the country (many corporations already attested to moving south) putting even more homeless and as we've all seen, the SNPs oil dream was just that. A fantasy.

There is too much riding on this to let the EU vote ruin everything for us. The EU can change in future. But Scotland could not rejoin the UK. It's an irreversable decision triggered by an entirely avoidable one.

[GibMariner]

We can keep pushing for greater distancing from them, for better deals. No deal is worth the Union being fracutured forever and turning the lives of over 5 million people up here into a misery (voted for or not). That often goes unspoken. I do not want to live in a country rapidly failing because of its pride. I don't want to lose my job because Yes2 got social media trending. I don't want to lose my identity of being part of a strong country, nor do I want to leave the geographical area I love and have so much that matters to me in to "stay British".

Believe me when I say that I understand where you're coming from, possibly more than anyone else on this board. As someone who constantly has his identity - that indefinable, all-encompassing sense of 'Britishness' - threatened by both external and internal forces; where every aspect of my life could be changed overnight. To find myself living within the same geographical area but in an alien land - and all, largely, out of my control.

It's a shame that the whole independence campaign (at least from what I saw) seemed to focus more on cold economics, petty nationalism and tit for tat bickering than it did on sentiments such as yours and how it would affect millions of people directly, personally.

If we leave the EU, an IndyRef will be called. SNP have said this directly.

If another one is called, it'll have the whole pro-EU crowd on board, which is by far the majority in Scotland.

What is the Scottish obsession with the EU exactly? I don't get why they would be willing to throw away one union, with centuries of history and accomplishment, but which they view as oppressive, yet be willing to be subservient to the EU - especially with the "ever closer union" aspect, which would be a direct threat to Scottish nationalism.

Tens of thousands of jobs will be lost as the shipbuilding disappears. Thousands of military jobs will be lost as we drop to the SNPs insane "defence force" numbers. Bases will be shut. Trident will be screwed. Many many jobs will leave the country (many corporations already attested to moving south) putting even more homeless and as we've all seen, the SNPs oil dream was just that. A fantasy.

Again, I can't see how an independent Scotland would be admitted to the EU - I doubt that matters much to the hardcore nationalists/separatists, but I think it's a point that can't be stressed enough; If they leave the UK, there is absolutely no guarantee, and very little chance that Scotland would be able to remain in or rejoin the EU - it seems that they are pointing to EU membership as some sort of saviour to their problems, much like the oil dream, and look how that turned out.

There is too much riding on this to let the EU vote ruin everything for us. The EU can change in future. But Scotland could not rejoin the UK. It's an irreversable decision triggered by an entirely avoidable one.

Agreed entirely. While there are valid arguments regarding the EU, it seems to have become a somewhat similar scenario as the Falklands is to Argentina, and Gibraltar to Spain - something external, but with enough sentiment and attachment to distract the masses from internal problems - especially playing on those elements on the right wing of the political spectrum. Much like it seems Scotland looks to EU membership as a magical cure, 'England' seems to look at leaving the EU as the solution to every problem that exists in the UK, while potentially destroying the fabric of the nation they seek to protect.

[RetroSicotte]

What is the Scottish obsession with the EU exactly? I don't get why they would be willing to throw away one union, with centuries of history and accomplishment, but which they view as oppressive, yet be willing to be subservient to the EU - especially with the "ever closer union" aspect, which would be a direct threat to Scottish nationalism.

SNP and its fanaticism has never been about logic, I really wouldn't try to reason it. I am, generally, a very pragmatic person. I actually have no party loyalty anywhere and in general I see good points in many of them.

So when I of all people say I've never seen a party with its followers more zealous, more logic defying, more fact ignoring than the Independance Seekers.

As such, I don't put any exaggeration on it when I say it's because the UK is generally against EU...that the SNP will say "for" EU. It's like Democrats and Republicans in America type of "He says that, so we must say this." And their followers will toot that horn endlessly and fanatically follow it to the end because at the end of the day, Scotland is a country torn in two over a single issue vote. Party offers independance? It'll get craptons of votes and people will want everything they say. Party doesn't offer independance? Get ready to be nobody.

The seats say it all. All but two seats are SNP in the entire country of more than 50 seats.

I explain that at length to make it very explained, that it's not an obsession with the EU. It's an obsession with opposing "evil Westminster". So the SNP's over 50% voter base will always vote for it because they are a "do no wrong" party to them and because the SNP sees a division over Europe as a trigger for another referendum. So they're chasing it relentlessly.

Scotland otherwise is generally pretty "for" left wing things. Hence why even during low ebb SNP days it was Labour and not Tories that did well up here. And the left-wing tends to be more pro-EU than right-wing. So there's another group onto it there. All told, that accounts to a much greater portion. Most polls put EU support in Scotland at over 70%. In a referendum standpoint, that's huge.

It's somewhat ironic though. Scotland has an unnaturally massive presence in Parliment due to the distinctly unfair seats method (More people voted for UKIP than did for SNP, but UKIP got 1 seats, while SNP got 50+. I'm very much NOT a fan of UKIP at all...but I can't deny they have a point with that one) but when it comes to UK-wide referendums, the low population of Scotland almost invalidates them.

England will be the deciding factor. Perhaps Scotland might swing it if it's close, but I think we all know it's most definitely NOT very close right now.

[Pseudo]

I might be wrong here, but I get the general feeling that the SNP's popularity is based largely on a historical enmity, they see their being in the UK as their defeat. They deify the Scottish contribution to the union and they should be proud, there's a lot to be proud of. Though they seem to willingly ignore that without the union those Scots generally wouldn't have been in the position they exalt them for. Ultimately though, Scotland is as much an intrinsic part of the UK as anywhere else, the knock on effects of a Scottish secession would likely tear the union apart and we'd all be poorer for it.

[rec]

To stay in despite all the flaws in the EU is probably best for the UK, to leave would leave to the splitting up of the UK with enormous consequences for each of the 4 countries.

[Cooper]

It's quite obvious to me that Sturgeon is pretty desperate to avoid a 2nd referendum over the EU, especially with oil at $30 a barrel, at some point they're going to have to explain to the Scottish people how they would maintain services with a £9bn deficit and no oil income.

But if she is crazy enough to demand a second referendum then we should call the Scottish bluff.

Appeasing them with more and more money and powers obviously doesn't work, so call their bluff, because the rest of the country is quite frankly sick to death of the constant 'hard done by self entitlement' emanating from the north.

If they think they'll be better off leaving a union that it does 70% of it's trade with then they really are cutting their nose off to spite their face and will deserve everything they get.

Right now Scotland is a country drunk on petty 300yr old nationalism, they need to sober up, and the cold stark choice of the UK or The EU might just do it.

If it really is a case of 'anyone but the English' for the majority of the Scottish population then quite frankly, goodbye and good riddance and I hope they find their new French and German masters more to their taste.

[Pseudo]

I've always thought that nationalism in Scotland, Wales and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland has been a problem partly of our own making. Certainly separate national sports teams and leagues have in the past stoked the embers of national rivalry even when we have been at our most unified.

[Cooper]

I've always thought that nationalism in Scotland, Wales and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland has been a problem partly of our own making. Certainly separate national sports teams and leagues have in the past stoked the embers of national rivalry even when we have been at our most unified.

Fact is, the union as a concept was a completely botched arrangement from the get go in 1707.

Allowing Scotland to retain its own judiciary and education systems was always going to instil a sense of 'we're different and always will be'. We should have insisted on a 'one country, one system' arrangement. If we had, we most likely wouldn't be having these problems now, of course the Scots could have simply refused in 1707 to agree, but given the dire economic situation they were in, I doubt they would have.

The irony is that the exact same middle class professionals that insisted on keeping said different systems in place after union in 1707, mainly because they wanted to maintain their own privileged positions secure in 18th century Scottish society, are the exact same type of people who are leading the drive for separation 300yrs later.

[RetroSicotte]

It's quite obvious to me that Sturgeon is pretty desperate to avoid a 2nd referendum over the EU, especially with oil at $30 a barrel, at some point they're going to have to explain to the Scottish people how they would maintain services with a £9bn deficit and no oil income.

You dramatically underestimate the SNPs desperation to make this work.

They want power. They don't give a damn what happens afterwards. They want a power and "legacy" based on nothing more than utter blind nationalism of the worst sort.

They would never miss an oppurtunity for such a thing.

[Cooper]

You dramatically underestimate the SNPs desperation to make this work.

They want power. They don't give a damn what happens afterwards.

Well in that case, if the majority of the Scottish people are dumb enough to fall for it you'll have to live with the consequences.

..but I still expect them to be blaming Westminster when it all goes horribly wrong because doing so seems to be such a comfort blanket for so many Scots.

[RetroSicotte]

You aren't wrong. But unfortunately I'm one of those people who lives here and all those south of the border would feel the impact too.

[Cooper]

You aren't wrong. But unfortunately I'm one of those people who lives here and all those south of the border would feel the impact too.

For what its worth, I still think the people of Scotland would pull back from the precipice when faced with the cold hard stark choice of ditching the UK in favour of the EU.

Even if Sturgeon demanded a referendum over EU membership exit, she won't get agreement from Westminster for it to be considered legal.

A referendum without Westminster agreement wouldn't be recognised by anyone abroad for a start.

It will end up in the courts for years, just like the Spanish Government does with Catalonia.

[Pseudo]

If the SNP has a commitment in their 2016 Scottish parliament manifesto to seek another referendum in the event the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU when Scotland has voted to stay in the EU then it'll be difficult for the government to deny them a referendum without undermining the authority of the Scottish parliament and massively increasing support for independence.