Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

For discussions on politics and current events.

Should the UK now withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest ?!

:wave: Yes!
30
61%
:evil: No!
19
39%
 
Total votes: 49

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Caribbean wrote: 16 Oct 2022, 20:58 I'm sure you are cock-a-hoop about that.

But he's wrong.

By the way - where did my last two comments on this thread disappear to?
Definitely not happy at all. Would be more “cock a hoop” if Lebedev & others of his ilk chose somewhere else to spend their money.

Maybe he is wrong, but Russians liking Brexit should make one pause for thought.

No idea about your comments. Are you asking whether I have spirited them away or is this a general question to the thread?

Caribbean
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Caribbean »

zanahoria wrote: 16 Oct 2022, 22:21 Watch others, like France, Germany & especially the Baltic states step up.
That literally made me laugh out loud. The Baltic states will bust a gut to spend as much as they can, but their entire contribution is a week or so of the UK Defence budget. The others I have no faith in.
zanahoria wrote: 16 Oct 2022, 22:21 I like HM Charles III, but there’s no way he’ll enjoy the same same level of affection/soft power as his mother.
Let's see in 20 years, shall we? HM QEII was marvellous, but it took her quite a while to pin things down
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The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

This is an interesting take on the NI protocol

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/l ... ocol-bill/

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

it seems Brexit died this week under Sunak and Hunt from my prospective and news coming out that they are planning a Swiss style agreement with the EU

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -dead.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d9a5 ... 0b7837d1cd

That would mean coming under the 4 freedoms again und like the Swiss being a rule tacker not a rule maker. I would have expected this under Starmer not Sunak seems he is not a true believer

What would the mood in the UK be like if this happens

SW1
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SW1 »

R686 wrote: 19 Nov 2022, 23:23 it seems Brexit died this week under Sunak and Hunt from my prospective and news coming out that they are planning a Swiss style agreement with the EU

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -dead.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d9a5 ... 0b7837d1cd

That would mean coming under the 4 freedoms again und like the Swiss being a rule tacker not a rule maker. I would have expected this under Starmer not Sunak seems he is not a true believer

What would the mood in the UK be like if this happens
A “Swiss” deal is I would think joining the EFTA but not the EEA. As the swiss are the only member of the 4 EFTA nations that aren’t in the EEA none of which are in the political institutions of the EU. We set up EFTA in 1960 after all and if you interested in free trade but not the politics of the institutions of the EU then it’s were we should have gone in 2016 as it was always the most pragmatic landing ground.
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dmereifield
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by dmereifield »

A mixture of things coming out here, not sure how much is correct and how much is remainers (in Government, Parliament, civil servants, media) pushing their own agenda.

The UK isn't going to accept the 4 freedoms, nor is the EU goin to budge on them, just as they didn't for May's Chequers proposals (Salzburg anyone?). Sunak will capitulate on many areas to improve the relationship with the EU and avoid a trade war. Some of this will include alignment. Many remainers will try to use that the establish a way back in...

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

Reduction in wealth = reduction in sovereignty

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-12-20/bre ... ax-revenue

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 24 Dec 2022, 08:49 Reduction in wealth = reduction in sovereignty

Not sure how you come to that conclusion

Can you further explain how a reduction in wealth is equal to a reduction in sovereignty

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

A throwaway remark on my part as a result of reading about the IMF intervention of 1976 and seeing similarities between then and now.

Kwarteng’s disastrous mini budget required the IMF to pass comment, but of course unlike in 1976 there hasn’t (for now) been a requirement for the UK government to follow instructions regarding spending and taxation from the IMF (a loss of sovereignty) in exchange for a loan.

Perhaps

“reduction in wealth = reduction in power”

might have been more accurate.

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 25 Dec 2022, 21:21 A throwaway remark on my part as a result of reading about the IMF intervention of 1976 and seeing similarities between then and now.

Kwarteng’s disastrous mini budget required the IMF to pass comment, but of course unlike in 1976 there hasn’t (for now) been a requirement for the UK government to follow instructions regarding spending and taxation from the IMF (a loss of sovereignty) in exchange for a loan.

Perhaps

“reduction in wealth = reduction in power”

might have been more accurate.
Would that not be admitting being in the EU was not the be all and end all to the UK economic prosperity.

You have just admitted that Brexit is not the economic disruption that is being peddled in the media

zanahoria
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by zanahoria »

“Would that not be admitting being in the EU was not the be all and end all to the UK economic prosperity.”

You could come to that conclusion if prior to the mini budget the UK economy had been performing as well or better than other G7 countries since leaving the EU and that your point is my mention of the mini budget is an admission that the poor performance of the UK economy is more to do with the irresponsible actions of the former PM and Chancellor than leaving the EU.

But that’s not what I have read anywhere.

On the contrary the economy seems to have been in steady decline at least from when we exited the EU at the start of 2021, if not before:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/24/econ ... uk-economy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64062548

Perhaps I haven’t looked hard enough, but I don’t see any studies indicating current and/ or near future prosperity outside the EU.

This comment attributed to Mark Carney sums it up

“Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70%.”

So to me it’s clear that being part of the EU was an important factor in the UK’s economic success up to 2016.

I am not sure how I have admitted that “Brexit is not the economic disruption that is being peddled in the media”

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

zanahoria wrote: 26 Dec 2022, 06:41 “Would that not be admitting being in the EU was not the be all and end all to the UK economic prosperity.”

You could come to that conclusion if prior to the mini budget the UK economy had been performing as well or better than other G7 countries since leaving the EU and that your point is my mention of the mini budget is an admission that the poor performance of the UK economy is more to do with the irresponsible actions of the former PM and Chancellor than leaving the EU.

But that’s not what I have read anywhere.

On the contrary the economy seems to have been in steady decline at least from when we exited the EU at the start of 2021, if not before:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/24/econ ... uk-economy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64062548

Perhaps I haven’t looked hard enough, but I don’t see any studies indicating current and/ or near future prosperity outside the EU.

This comment attributed to Mark Carney sums it up

“Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70%.”

So to me it’s clear that being part of the EU was an important factor in the UK’s economic success up to 2016.

I am not sure how I have admitted that “Brexit is not the economic disruption that is being peddled in the media”

Anyone can make something look bad or good, but carney is not comparing apples with apples it’s apples and pears

https://julianhjessop.com/2022/11/07/wh ... got-wrong/

This howler is revealed by the figures in a follow-up tweet in which Mr Carney showed his working. He stated that UK GDP was £2.1 trillion at the start of 2016, or 94% of Germany’s sterling-equivalent of £2.2 trillion, and that it is now £2.17 trillion, or 70% of Germany’s £3.10 trillion.

Eagle-eyed readers may have spotted that the percentages here (‘94%’ and ‘70%’) are different from those in the FT interview (‘90%’ and ‘less than 70%’). But there is a more serious mistake. According to Mr Carney’s numbers, the German economy has grown by more than 40% in sterling terms since 2016, whereas the UK economy has grown by less than 4% (you do the maths!). This obviously cannot be right, even allowing for swings in the value of the pound.

Digging further, it looks like Mr Carney has used annual data for 2015 and 2021. The German numbers are pretty close to the national data on nominal GDP, and appear to be correctly translated into sterling. However, his UK numbers match the official ONS data on real GDP. In other words, he is comparing ‘apples’ and ‘pears’, and this biases the comparison in favour of Germany.
Recall that Mr Carney attempted to compare economies using market exchange rates. At best, this approach is misleading. Other economists have been less charitable. Jonathan Portes has called Mr Carney’s claim a ‘zombie statistic’, while Ashoka Mody has dismissed it as ‘complete bulls***’.

There are three main problems here. First, market exchange rates can be volatile. As Jonathan Portes has put it, ‘the pound has risen by almost 10% against the dollar since the Truss nadir. Has the UK economy really grown by almost 10% relative to the US in a few weeks?’.

I certainly would not say the UK has recovered badly compared to others after covid and the Russians invasion of Ukraine. Whilst theEU members have returned to precovid levels they were not impacted as badly as the UK and UK growth was the highest in Europe

In the fourth quarter of 2021, UK GDP grew by 1% compared with the previous quarter (2021Q3). The United States, Canada and Japan grew faster than the UK compared with the previous quarter, at 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively. France, Italy and the euro area grew at a slower rate at 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Germany faced a 0.3% decline in real GDP growth in 2021Q4.
https://www.economicsobservatory.com/ho ... -countries

Repulse
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Repulse »

So Brexit (probably) has has a short term economic impact - surprised? No. It’s what happens next that counts, and with leadership the UK can have its independence and a strong economy. The biggest cause IMO is not Brexit, it’s poor productivity, over reliance on cheap Labour and lack of investment. However, Brexit has exposed these weaknesses more.

Talk about getting closer to Europe again as part of this is ok, but only if the EU’s position has changed on the costs. You can’t only blame the UK government on where things ended up the EU’s zealot position on cake-ism had a significant role to play also.

One thing I would ask is that the affluent significant minority who only enjoyed the benefits of EU, raised their head from their Skiing brochures, put down their caramel Latte and think for a minute about those that can’t afford to jump NHS queues, or live in expensive micro ecosystems where schools are great and crime is low, and try and put themselves in the shoes of people who have seen the worst effects of cheap mass immigration. Also, bear in their minds that the 2016 vote was born out of a population never having a say on the direction of our relationship for 50 years, and only be told by the same affluent elites that they know best.

The problem was never really Brussels it was the elites who did everything out of self interest.
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

SW1
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SW1 »

The EU political institutions is not Europe and vice versa.

The overall strategy of the government needs to be one of industry, free trade and rule of law. They need to set the conditions to ensure industry and business thrives and populations around the country enjoy the benefits of such a move but people have to also want to work. It should be noted around 2/3rds of people are employed by small and medium businesses and most of their trade is domestic.

The government currently has never had more money than it has now its spent over a trillion pounds in the past year, capital allocation maybe were more of the problems lie.

Repulse
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Repulse »

SW1 wrote: 26 Dec 2022, 10:25 The EU political institutions is not Europe and vice versa.
Couldn’t agree more, the problem is that the EU agenda is to make it the same. Even now reading the majority of the media and social media you’d be forgiven to believe there has been a movement of the Earths geological plates on a biblical scale.
”We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." - Lord Palmerston

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

Interesting take on the Windsor agreement.
If this analysis is correct it sounds like a big dud

https://facts4eu.org/news/2023_feb_circ ... _overnight


This show must not go on

Foreign (EU) law continues to apply in a sovereign part of the United Kingdom
The 'Windsor Framework' is not a legal agreement, merely a 'political agreement in principle'
EU's product labelling demands are so onerous and expensive, many companies will not be able to supply NI
Physical checks on products between GB and NI are still demanded
Medicines will have to have expensive NI-only packaging to be available in NI
Parcels - only large companies like DHL will be able to afford to takes parcels to NI
EU has imposed restrictions on UK's ability to apply the same lower VAT in NI as in GB
The 'Stormont brake' can only be used "in the most exceptional circumstances"
State Aid : Windsor Framework doesn't "modify the substance of Article 10(1) nor restrict its application"
EU will only drop its seven legal proceedings against the UK when the UK has complied with all the EU's demands

sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... until-2024

Yikes.

UK Economy Seen Sputtering Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2024

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 09 Mar 2023, 03:19 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... until-2024

Yikes.

UK Economy Seen Sputtering Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2024

That’s strange the UK economy must have slipped after omricon


https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ec ... e-omicron/

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

Wow no wonder the PM does not want debate on the Windsor agreement

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/t ... tic-sting/
In addition, it has agreed to grant new rights under EU law for the EU to be consulted on UK goods and tax legislation to monitor competition risks with the Single Market. This has nothing to do with operation of the Protocol and is an EU demand which was specifically excluded from the Protocol in earlier negotiations. By sliding it into the Protocol now (rather than attracting attention by amending the Trade and Cooperation Agreement), the very purpose of the Protocol is called into question.
And if the Windsor agreement is not voted thru the EU parliament gave approval to start a trade war with the UK



March 16 2023
Today, we signed into law a regulation empowering the @EU_Commission
to impose trade restrictions should the UK breach its obligations under post-Brexit trading agreements.

sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-n ... e-26562306

Brexit = Pandemic + Energy crisis. So UK goes through double the crisis the average G7 country does. This explains why the UK economy is sluggish more than "omicron." Do you want another lost decade?

4% smaller. This will compound and affect defense spending for a generation. Perhaps the best idea is to just admit a mistake and undo it.

Ukraine and UK joining at the same time would be quite the site.

R686
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

sunstersun wrote: 26 Mar 2023, 19:49 https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-n ... e-26562306

Brexit = Pandemic + Energy crisis. So UK goes through double the crisis the average G7 country does. This explains why the UK economy is sluggish more than "omicron." Do you want another lost decade?

4% smaller. This will compound and affect defense spending for a generation. Perhaps the best idea is to just admit a mistake and undo it.

Ukraine and UK joining at the same time would be quite the site.
At the end of the day, it's all theoretical.

Can you guarantee that the UK economy would be 4% better by not leaving the EU?

It comes down to government policy that will determine the progress of a nation, I personally believe that the government should have full control of what laws the nation will enact not rules foisted upon them by a third party like the EU as each economy will react differently to different laws.

I do remember that the EEC was sold as a trade pact not this ever-closer union that it has become over time.

sunstersun
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by sunstersun »

R686 wrote: 27 Mar 2023, 00:16
sunstersun wrote: 26 Mar 2023, 19:49 https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-n ... e-26562306

Brexit = Pandemic + Energy crisis. So UK goes through double the crisis the average G7 country does. This explains why the UK economy is sluggish more than "omicron." Do you want another lost decade?

4% smaller. This will compound and affect defense spending for a generation. Perhaps the best idea is to just admit a mistake and undo it.

Ukraine and UK joining at the same time would be quite the site.
At the end of the day, it's all theoretical.

Can you guarantee that the UK economy would be 4% better by not leaving the EU?

It comes down to government policy that will determine the progress of a nation, I personally believe that the government should have full control of what laws the nation will enact not rules foisted upon them by a third party like the EU as each economy will react differently to different laws.

I do remember that the EEC was sold as a trade pact not this ever-closer union that it has become over time.
138 F-35s sure ain't theoretical. Neither is 250 Challenger 3s. No, I can't guarantee it would be 4% better. It might be 5% better. Who knows. What matters is I can guarantee it's much worse due to Brexit.

People who spend their living and time on studying this say it's equal to covid + energy/ukraine.

Who am I to argue, when UK is the only G7 economy who hasn't recovered to pre covid? Are people who complain about the military budget going to keep in mind the economic effects of Brexit? Probably not.

Hey, in the end I'm not here to throw stones. USA fcked up the most with electing an orange ape.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/32621- ... our-wishes

SW1
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SW1 »

The first rule of the OBR is the OBR hasn’t got a scoobie doo.

They told us in sept that in 5 years times there would be a 45b pound “black hole”. Only in January to tell us they hadn’t added up right and there was 35b more than they estimated.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by jedibeeftrix »

sunstersun wrote: 26 Mar 2023, 19:49 Do you want another lost decade?

Ukraine and UK joining at the same time would be quite the site.
still droning on about the poor choices those british people made?

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