Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Discuss current, historical or potential future deployments, as well the defence of the UK's overseas interests.
topman
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by topman »

indeid wrote:
downsizer wrote:What have the french got to do with Op Shader?
Kronenbourg was our go to drink once we were sick of Keo. A noteworthy contribution.
easy to get sick of Keo, we've all been there ;)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Frenchie wrote:air raid left early in the night from several air bases in France to reach the shores of Syria for a series of strikes against the Syrian program of chemical weapons.

This operation will have been the baptism of fire for the naval cruise missile (MdCN), implemented by the four FREMMs in service within the French Navy. These ships carry every 16 copies of this ammunition, developed by MBDA.
Hi Frenchie, not to worry too much about what we here call "knit pickers"... as for as what to post where; exactly. Some of my posts disappear without a trace when someone thinks they are in the wrong place :wtf:

Anyway, the comparative tally, against our 8 SS (when we are right on the doorstep of the scene for action) was - according to Defence One:
"The second site was the Hims-Shinshar Chemical Weapons storage facility near Homs, against which U.S. forces fired nine Tomahawks. The British fired eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles from Royal Air Force Tornado jets. [going into an honourable retirement, fairly soon]

France also participated in the strike, sending Rafale and Mirage combat jets and the Languedoc FREMM multipurpose frigate. French forces fired three Naval Cruise Missiles and two SCALP land cruise missiles at the Hims-Shinshar Chemical Weapons facility and another seven SCALP missiles at the final target, the Hims-Shinsahar Chemical Weapons Bunker. Pentagon officials said both targets appear to have been destroyed."

I only copied this part as the rest of the "Op" whatever it is called did seem to rely on saturation by Tomahawks (or stand-off, this time with JASSM, so that the B-1s could also come out and play... where there B-2s up in the air, to finish an unfinished job; the story does not say :?:
- Intruder EA planes were used; did they fly off the carrier still steaming in, AAR'red by land-based assets out of Europe/ the Gulf?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

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I won't name the blog this came from (as I might be quoting out of context; the wording is perfect, though):

"condemnation or opposition from regimes opposed to the West, particularly Russia and Iran and the leadership of the UK Labour Party. " :problem:

All of them, errr UK Labour Party is not a sovereign, though, were signatories to the UN Responsibility To Protect (have not seen any mentions about it in the debate, either), about which wiki says:
"Secretary-General's 2009 report

On 12 January 2009, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a report entitled Implementing the Responsibility to Protect. The report was the first comprehensive document from the UN Secretariat on the R2P, following Ban's stated commitment to turn the concept into policy. The Secretary-General's report set the tone and the direction for the discussion on the subject at the UN. The report proposes three-pillar approach to the R2P:

Pillar One stresses that states have the primary responsibility to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.
Pillar Two addresses the international community's commitment to help states build capacity to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, and to help those under stress before crises and conflicts break out.
Pillar Three focuses on the responsibility of international community to act in a timely and decisive way to prevent and halt genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against humanity when a state manifestly fails to protect its populations."

- that was 4 years after the ink had dried (on another meaningless document, however well intentioned)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

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Image

dmereifield
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by dmereifield »

"Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson has written to Theresa May asking for 450 more troops"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6314069/b ... ssion=true


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A tough one for Turkey
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mide ... SKCN1LM365
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mide ... SKCN1LN0ZD
They still insist that US forces need to get out, but at the same time that would remove any leverage they have over Iran & Russia, to help to stop/ restrain the coming Idlib offensive that is bound to wipe out the Turkoman part of the resistance, too.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by SW1 »

I wonder how the US decision to withdraw from Syria will affect UK operations. Do you think it will show the ability of the uk to conduct independent operations (as some on here believe we can) and we’ll step into the breach as we have made clear we disagree with the policy. Or will Cold hard reality strike and we decide its times to go as well?

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: the coming Idlib offensive that is bound to wipe out the Turkoman part of the resistance, too.
Oops, I was on the Tonka thread with similar thoughts (and no boots ;) on the ground, of course, just like we never had).

I forgot about this Idlib thing (Turkey's protectorate). So the offensive will never happen, and US pulls out of the way so that Turkey can give the Kurds a beating - on Assad's behalf... so that he can regain every inch of Turkish soil (except Idlib, of course)
- Putin declares a victory
- Erdogan declares a victory
- Assad declares a victory
- Trump declares an election promise met
- Iran does not declare (so that Israel does not give it a good beating)
UK & France (both "busy") do what? Germany of course never did anything; except unilaterally broke the agreed EU policy and now is trying to bribe every one else to pick up the pieces
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Have not seen any detailed reports, but after yesterday's meeting with Trump Mattis said that he will retire in Feb (at least there is some one, as the nomination process will face a new Congress), to cover for the transition.
- just wondering whether Syria/ the wider M. East may have been the sticking point?
- the Kurds have been allies, too, though not in a formal Treaty. Expending such, left, right and center is bound to have long-term costs. But who cares about long term? In the short term there is a deal... and in the medium term we are all dead (Keynes... freely :) worded)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

And with the US (NYC at least) having woken up, we get the account:
"on Thursday, in an extraordinary rebuke of the president, he decided that Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw roughly 2,000 American troops from Syria was a step too far.

Officials said Mr. Mattis went to the White House with his resignation letter already written, but nonetheless made a last attempt at persuading the president to reverse his decision about Syria, which Mr. Trump announced on Wednesday over the objections of his senior advisers.

Mr. Mattis, a retired four-star Marine general, was rebuffed. Returning to the Pentagon, he asked aides to print out 50 copies of his resignation letter and distribute them around the building."
from the NYT
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

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According to APnews, it is all (i.e. US policy for the region being upended) down to one phone call on 14 Dec. Here goes their account of it:

["]“The talking points were very firm,” said one of the officials, explaining that Trump was advised to clearly oppose a Turkish incursion into northern Syria and suggest the U.S. and Turkey work together to address security concerns. “Everybody said push back and try to offer (Turkey) something that’s a small win, possibly holding territory on the border, something like that.”

Erdogan, though, quickly put Trump on the defensive, reminding him that he had repeatedly said the only reason for U.S. troops to be in Syria was to defeat the Islamic State and that the group had been 99 percent defeated. “Why are you still there?” the second official said Erdogan asked Trump, telling him that the Turks could deal with the remaining IS militants.


With Erdogan on the line, Trump asked national security adviser John Bolton, who was listening in, why American troops remained in Syria if what the Turkish president was saying was true"

And the rest... will be history.

As if Syria and the Kurds would let the Turks in "to deal with etc". Not to mention that Turkey and Iraq, not long ago, were both threatening war because of Turkish push into Iraq.
- only Iran has been keen to accommodate Turkey vs. the Kurds (as they have their own, and then that active opposition would be cut off. No wonder they, next to Russia, have been thanking Trump profusely :lol: )

And the first nation to be told, after Turkey, was Israel. So it goes like this:
- Putin declares a victory
- Erdogan declares a victory
- Assad declares a victory
- Trump declares an election promise met
- Iran does not declare (so that Israel does not give it a good beating)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Beep informs that
"A top US official in the fight against the Islamic State group [ Brett McGurk, the US special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat IS] has quit over President Trump's decision to pull troops from Syria"

Will be interesting, once Global Coalition to Defeat IS has had a chance to pow-wow, to see
1. what form will the presence in Iraq take
2. and will the air campaign over Syria continue
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Straight out of Tom Clancy film
" the special-ops unit in Colombia was betrayed, stranded and cut off from US air support and satellite communications behind enemy lines" except that the Kurds will be the stand in for them

And also the president in the film https://www.filmsite.org/fotos/candpdanger3.jpg
looks like someone else in the roles of the current 'act'.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Soon some insightful pieces will be in the offing:

"The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace announced today that Brett McGurk will be joining as a nonresident senior fellow in its Middle East Program.

McGurk recently served as special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS at the U.S. Department of State. He helped build and then led the coalition of seventy-five countries and four international organizations and was responsible for coordinating all aspects of U.S. policy in the campaign against the Islamic State."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

https://news.sky.com/story/british-spec ... e-11600032 aside from the incident in the area, which as a "missing piece" could potentially could complete the Shia arch from Tehran to the Med coast, talks also about US withdrawal and how "there is no reason" to remain involved.

This happened to the South of the same general area: https://taskandpurpose.com/russian-merc ... -firefight
- under-reported then,
- and in the future will likely go "the other way"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:as a "missing piece" could potentially could complete the Shia arch from Tehran to the Med coast

A damage limitation tour... quite a few stops :lol: it seems to take:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46828810
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Will be interesting, once Global Coalition to Defeat IS has had a chance to pow-wow, to see
[...] will the air campaign over Syria continue
Israel seems to have come to the conclusion that it is best to do the job themselves (and they are not going after ISIS - close to the Iraqi border - but the Republican Guard (as close as to the South of Damascus, ie. pretty close).
- not that they haven't been doing it (unadvertised) for a long time
- The Times (yesterday, p.28) quotes "thousands of missiles" expended

Deconflictation? Global Coalition, IDF and Syria/ Russia all having jets in the same airspace
- the Russian Ilyshin (shot down by Syria) was "passed over" as a one-off
- will the next 'one-off' be regarded in the same light?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Brett McGurk takes stock and sets the scene against which Op Shader will now need to be assessed (in a piece to Carnegie and WP):

"The strategic consequences of Trump’s decision are already playing out: The more Turkey expands its reach in Syria, the faster our Arab partners in the region move toward Damascus. It’s not a coincidence that Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates reopened embassies there shortly after Trump said we were leaving. These countries, as well as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, believe that engaging Damascus can help dilute Russian, Iranian and Turkish influence in Syria, and they are discounting contrary views from Washington. The SDF, recognizing that it may soon be on its own and surrounded by hostile forces, has accelerated its talks with Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Turkey, a NATO ally, turned to Russia within days of Trump’s decision, dispatching senior officials to Moscow to work out next steps in Syria. Israel, our closest ally in the region, confronted a new reality with America soon absent from the field in Syria. Only Russia and Iran hailed Trump’s decision. Whatever leverage we may have had with these two adversaries in Syria diminished once Trump said we would leave."
- also the decision to turn Israel's low vis. air campaign into a higher profile one is set against this broader scene
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Is he a cat, with 9 lives? Just in October there was a poisoning (partly failed):

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Purported to Have Survived Assassination Attempt by Foreign Fighters Led By Abu Muath al-Jazairi near Hajin in the Euphrates River valley, Syria - 10 January 2019
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

topman
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by topman »

A change in the rules for the Op Shader medal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... of-warfare

downsizer
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by downsizer »

topman wrote:A change in the rules for the Op Shader medal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... of-warfare
Not relevant for many on here mate! Image

topman
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by topman »

Well I suppose not, no :)

I thought a change of topic might be a good idea.
Not sure why they made such hard work for themselves over this particular issue, although I can probably guess.
Plenty of recent(ish) ops that set out similar rules that we've now got.
We do make things hard work for ourselves.

downsizer
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by downsizer »

Army were against it.

Personally I think it's a good thing, RPAS Ops aren't easy, and whilst they are "at home" the shifts they work and what they do takes a toll. And the groundcrew doing det after det at Aki work hard enough to deserve it as well.

topman
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Re: Operation Shader - Iraq, Syria

Post by topman »

Pretty much the reason (amongst others ) we were told at a briefing, for various reasons that made little sense. Having been at a 3* briefing when this topic came up, all i can say is they must have some sway.
Although if they'd been flying them I wonder what the attitude would have been then?

Agreed there's precedent to issue them to the groundcrews and the rest of the EAWs, I guess they (with the rest) got caught up in the drones crews, should they shouldn't they debate which seemed to take centre stage.

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