Invasion of Taiwan

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Defiance
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Invasion of Taiwan

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Copied this from another thread as my reply was very Taiwan heavy for a Ukraine thread
Pseudo wrote: 04 Dec 2021, 20:19 My worry is that an invasion of Ukraine might only be the first move. I've no doubt that western powers being distracted by Ukraine would look like a great opportunity to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially if North Korea were for the same reason to take the opportunity to make their way south.
In general I support your idea, that Russia and China may not officially be allies but aware that if they both acted simultaneously, they may be able to achieve their aims more successfully.

But the invasion of Taiwan would be the single largest amphibious assault ever mounted in history. We're probably talking about something 2-3x the magnitude of D-Day at the very least just to hit the main islands and this is before they deal with the sticky issues of the Kinmen Islands*, the Matsu Islands** and the Penghu Islands ***. It's a tricky balance around how many men they need to shave off to capture these key territories prior to the main assault.

In general, the buildup of men, vehicles, equipment, fuel, shipping and resources would be so massive that we would see a ramp-up in evidence and tension the same way we are seeing now with Russia and Ukraine. Massive troop movements, airbase and supply storage expansions, new dispersal areas for air-defence and rocket force units. Marshalling yards packed with PLA tanks and vehicles sitting there waiting to be loaded onto transport vessels, of which there would be many.

In order to do the job with the best chance, the PRC would have to make a lot of decisions which would trip a lot of alarms around the world. It's not the sort of job they can pull off by surprise, Taiwan has a professional force of 130,000 (Wiki) and something like 1M+ reservists. This will require a proper amphibious assault across multiple beachheads with significant deployment of following waves to maintain the momentum.

*Seriously, this is a huge factor. It's akin to if the Germans controlled the Isle of Wight when SHAEF wanted to launch D-Day - it sits 3 miles off the mouth of Xiamen and is garrisoned by Taiwan. It blocks off access to the sea from a major port area which would assuredly need to be used as it sits in a fabulous position to cross the Strait.
**Similar situation Kinmen but the islands are smaller and much further north. If the PLA want to expand the harbours used or bring ships from the North Sea fleet they'll have to pass the Matsu Islands
***Large island of the SW corner of Taiwan and would be used to strike the flanks of any PLA attack

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Defiance wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 09:15In general I support your idea, that Russia and China may not officially be allies but aware that if they both acted simultaneously, they may be able to achieve their aims more successfully.

But the invasion of Taiwan would be the single largest amphibious assault ever mounted in history. We're probably talking about something 2-3x the magnitude of D-Day at the very least just to hit the main islands and this is before they deal with the sticky issues of the Kinmen Islands*, the Matsu Islands** and the Penghu Islands ***. It's a tricky balance around how many men they need to shave off to capture these key territories prior to the main assault.
I'd think that the Kinmen and Matsu Islands would be relatively easy to pick off given their proximity to mainland China, however do they even need to bother? Given the disparity in forces wouldn't it be easier to suppress intervention from the outlying islands and mop them up once the main island had been conquered?
In general, the buildup of men, vehicles, equipment, fuel, shipping and resources would be so massive that we would see a ramp-up in evidence and tension the same way we are seeing now with Russia and Ukraine. Massive troop movements, airbase and supply storage expansions, new dispersal areas for air-defence and rocket force units. Marshalling yards packed with PLA tanks and vehicles sitting there waiting to be loaded onto transport vessels, of which there would be many.

In order to do the job with the best chance, the PRC would have to make a lot of decisions which would trip a lot of alarms around the world. It's not the sort of job they can pull off by surprise, Taiwan has a professional force of 130,000 (Wiki) and something like 1M+ reservists. This will require a proper amphibious assault across multiple beachheads with significant deployment of following waves to maintain the momentum.
Absolutely, that's why I think that they can only really take the chance of doing it while the US is distracted in other theatres. If US and allied forces and leaders are concentrating on Ukraine and Korea then they can only provide limited attention and deterrence in response to a Chinese build up.

While I agree that there are very many overwhelmingly good reasons why it would be a terrible idea for China to invade Taiwan, I'm convinced that the current leadership is committed to reunification one way or another and sooner rather than later. Baring in mind that it looks a lot like China is heading toward social and economic difficulties in the not too distant future, I think that a great patriotic war would look pretty appealing to them, especially if they can engineer a situation where other conflicts distract Taiwan's allies.

It's also worth remembering how vital Taiwan is to China's goal of regional strategic supremacy. Taiwan gives them direct access to the deep Pacific which means that they can have a credible second strike nuclear capability rather than one that's constantly stalked by Japanese SSK's.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40 I'd think that the Kinmen and Matsu Islands would be relatively easy to pick off given their proximity to mainland China, however do they even need to bother? Given the disparity in forces wouldn't it be easier to suppress intervention from the outlying islands and mop them up once the main island had been conquered?
It depends which sources you read. Some paint a picture that these are islands which, with suitable warning, could be heavily fortified to deal significant damage to any invasion forces or local marshalling areas. The majority of the dockyards are well within artillery range and could put forward a devastating barrage. The islands are largely granite which has been heavily tunnelled and is able to house more men when required.

Arguably from a map perspective they could be avoided, but the devastation they could pose means they couldn't be avoided. Whatever men/equipment are used to assault those islands are resources that have to be diverted away from the main attack. Additionally, clearly the assault of those islands would indicate a more solid intention to attack Taiwan - a potentially very nasty tripwire.
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40 Absolutely, that's why I think that they can only really take the chance of doing it while the US is distracted in other theatres. If US and allied forces and leaders are concentrating on Ukraine and Korea then they can only provide limited attention and deterrence in response to a Chinese build up.
Yeah, I think you're spot on here. Alone either NATO or other allies can make the resulting cost not worthwhile, but together it becomes significantly more challenging. I must admit I had contemplated maybe Britain's role in a global war might be taking over a USN carrier group's responsibilities in the Med/Gulf and allow another task force to head east. That might be more effective than a British CBG, albeit less valuable politically.

It should be noted that the US' defence position used to be to scaled to defeat two major powers simulatenously, this has since been reduced to 'defeat one while resisting another', or words to that effect.
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40While I agree that there are very many overwhelmingly good reasons why it would be a terrible idea for China to invade Taiwan, I'm convinced that the current leadership is committed to reunification one way or another and sooner rather than later. Baring in mind that it looks a lot like China is heading toward social and economic difficulties in the not too distant future, I think that a great patriotic war would look pretty appealing to them, especially if they can engineer a situation where other conflicts distract Taiwan's allies.
I'm in agreement here as well, it's definitely within their strategic view as an objective. What i'm hoping to achieve in this thread is to try break the idea that a Taiwan invasion would be either sudden or able to be achieved with strategic surprise. I think the actual operational challenge of successfully invading Taiwan is a bit underestimated in certain areas. It's considered by some (from my perspective, not specifically here but many places) a fait accompli and pretty much a done deal.

In my opinion, a Taiwan invasion is likely 10+ years away while their navy expands and becomes more confident, their air forces develop into a mature 5th generation force, and their army/amphibious forces become more competent at planning and conducting an amphibious assault on such scale.

Of course as you say, it is certainly possible that some forseen or unforseen scenario forces their hand. Arguably such a move would be a mighty gamble by the PLA considering if they fail, it could cause the collapse of their system of government. Sort of what happened to Galtieri in '82.
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40It's also worth remembering how vital Taiwan is to China's goal of regional strategic supremacy. Taiwan gives them direct access to the deep Pacific which means that they can have a credible second strike nuclear capability rather than one that's constantly stalked by Japanese SSK's.
It certainly does, moreover it gives them a strategic hold over Japan who relies on the straight for the vast majority of its imports. Something like 90% of her petroleum imports and 99% of her mineral imports pass through the strait, overall some 500 million tons of shipping. It's for these reasons that the PLA believe should something happen with Taiwan, it would be very difficult for Japan to sit on the sidelines if not impossible.

China similarly has a massive amount of shipping pass through the strait, so for those same reasons around strategic security that could drive Japan to become involved in a regional conflict cause China to see the benefits of securing Taiwan.

Part of their desire to secure Taiwan is drawn from their own political paranoia. Merely 100 miles from the mainland is another 'China' showcasing how a democratic version of their country might look like. It's easy to understand how that might make the CCP uneasy having such a model prosper within spitting distance of them.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Pseudo Wrote:-
It's also worth remembering how vital Taiwan is to China's goal of regional strategic supremacy. Taiwan gives them direct access to the deep Pacific which means that they can have a credible second strike nuclear capability rather than one that's constantly stalked by Japanese SSK's.
Perhaps they would prefer to be constantly stalked by Japanese SSNs. The PLA seem to have a curious idea of minimising the (supposed) threats against them, witness the sudden prospect of Australian SSNs. :mrgreen:

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Defiance wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 16:05
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40 I'd think that the Kinmen and Matsu Islands would be relatively easy to pick off given their proximity to mainland China, however do they even need to bother? Given the disparity in forces wouldn't it be easier to suppress intervention from the outlying islands and mop them up once the main island had been conquered?
It depends which sources you read. Some paint a picture that these are islands which, with suitable warning, could be heavily fortified to deal significant damage to any invasion forces or local marshalling areas. The majority of the dockyards are well within artillery range and could put forward a devastating barrage. The islands are largely granite which has been heavily tunnelled and is able to house more men when required.

Arguably from a map perspective they could be avoided, but the devastation they could pose means they couldn't be avoided. Whatever men/equipment are used to assault those islands are resources that have to be diverted away from the main attack. Additionally, clearly the assault of those islands would indicate a more solid intention to attack Taiwan - a potentially very nasty tripwire.
I don't really no much about the islands other than where they are, but it would make sense that they're easily defensible because I'd imagine that if they weren't the PRC would have taken them decades ago.

And as you point out, they're certainly in target rich environments for any artillery stationed on them, particularly Kinmen.
Defiance wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 16:05What i'm hoping to achieve in this thread is to try break the idea that a Taiwan invasion would be either sudden or able to be achieved with strategic surprise. I think the actual operational challenge of successfully invading Taiwan is a bit underestimated in certain areas. It's considered by some (from my perspective, not specifically here but many places) a fait accompli and pretty much a done deal.
I don't think that it would be easy to mount an invasion of Taiwan or that there'd be any element of strategic surprise. That's why I think that the PRC would want to plan it around other conflicts if it can influence or at least know when they might start.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 18:10 I don't really no much about the islands other than where they are, but it would make sense that they're easily defensible because I'd imagine that if they weren't the PRC would have taken them decades ago.

And as you point out, they're certainly in target rich environments for any artillery stationed on them, particularly Kinmen.
They attempted to capture them back in Mao's day and were repulsed by the ROC. Fundamentally there's no show stoppers preventing the PRC from capturing the islands, but it's a question of
  • What assets do they need to allocate for their capture and how would this impact the main invasion
  • How long will it take to secure the islands
  • What happens if they fail to achieve a decisive success
The longer a Taiwan crisis continues, the closer US CBGs and SSNs are to the Chinese mainland. The question of these islands is an operationally difficult one where no choice really stands out as the 'ideal' for one reason or another.
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 18:10
I don't think that it would be easy to mount an invasion of Taiwan or that there'd be any element of strategic surprise. That's why I think that the PRC would want to plan it around other conflicts if it can influence or at least know when they might start.
Absolutely. If/when it comes, chances are the Russians will be ratcheting up tensions at the same time.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Ukraine/Poland/Baltic States and Taiwan at the same time is a given at this point.

Yay for two front wars.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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sunstersun wrote: 06 Dec 2021, 03:30 Ukraine/Poland/Baltic States and Taiwan at the same time is a given at this point.

Yay for two front wars.
I'm saying this "tongue in cheek", but perhaps it will also be the best time to trigger A16. Might give some perspective to the current discussions and Macron's "war" statements.
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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sunstersun wrote: 06 Dec 2021, 03:30 Ukraine/Poland/Baltic States and Taiwan at the same time is a given at this point.

Yay for two front wars.
Definitely in future, but not with the current Russian tensions. There's been no buildup and winter is a shit season to cross the Taiwan strait, they commonly see sea state 7 conditions and high wind speeds

When it comes, we'll be seeing the same coverage of the PLA buildup as the Russians in future.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 18:10
Defiance wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 16:05
Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 12:40 I'd think that the Kinmen and Matsu Islands would be relatively easy to pick off given their proximity to mainland China, however do they even need to bother? Given the disparity in forces wouldn't it be easier to suppress intervention from the outlying islands and mop them up once the main island had been conquered?
It depends which sources you read. Some paint a picture that these are islands which, with suitable warning, could be heavily fortified to deal significant damage to any invasion forces or local marshalling areas. The majority of the dockyards are well within artillery range and could put forward a devastating barrage. The islands are largely granite which has been heavily tunnelled and is able to house more men when required.

Arguably from a map perspective they could be avoided, but the devastation they could pose means they couldn't be avoided. Whatever men/equipment are used to assault those islands are resources that have to be diverted away from the main attack. Additionally, clearly the assault of those islands would indicate a more solid intention to attack Taiwan - a potentially very nasty tripwire.
I don't really no much about the islands other than where they are, but it would make sense that they're easily defensible because I'd imagine that if they weren't the PRC would have taken them decades ago.

And as you point out, they're certainly in target rich environments for any artillery stationed on them, particularly Kinmen.
Defiance wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 16:05What i'm hoping to achieve in this thread is to try break the idea that a Taiwan invasion would be either sudden or able to be achieved with strategic surprise. I think the actual operational challenge of successfully invading Taiwan is a bit underestimated in certain areas. It's considered by some (from my perspective, not specifically here but many places) a fait accompli and pretty much a done deal.
I don't think that it would be easy to mount an invasion of Taiwan or that there'd be any element of strategic surprise. That's why I think that the PRC would want to plan it around other conflicts if it can influence or at least know when they might start.
Maybe the PLA might take a further leaf out of Russia's book. Not just in the timing of their assault but bitting off small sections of Taiwanese land first. So the Kinmen Islands being equivalent to Russian occupation of Crimea.

The West might not be happy about it once their attention had reverted back East after Ukraine / Poland / Baltic States situation stablised, and would probably deploy sanctions against China. But it might not be enough to trigger the West's direct military response.

And from what you have said earlier would then give China time to consolidate that territory gain, and then be in a stronger military position in a future further incursion against Taiwan?

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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wargame_insomniac wrote: 06 Dec 2021, 22:44
Maybe the PLA might take a further leaf out of Russia's book. Not just in the timing of their assault but bitting off small sections of Taiwanese land first. So the Kinmen Islands being equivalent to Russian occupation of Crimea.

The West might not be happy about it once their attention had reverted back East after Ukraine / Poland / Baltic States situation stablised, and would probably deploy sanctions against China. But it might not be enough to trigger the West's direct military response.

And from what you have said earlier would then give China time to consolidate that territory gain, and then be in a stronger military position in a future further incursion against Taiwan?
The wildcard there is would Taiwan respond with cruise and ballistic missile attacks. Such attacks against China would be seen as a massive escalation and force the CCP to respond in some manner. It could ​fundamentally provoke full-on war and draw in Taiwan's allies when the PRC isn't properly mobilised to fight such a major engagement.

That's the rub I see with China following Russia's strategy. Taiwan has the capability to up the ante.

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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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SD67 wrote: 06 Jan 2022, 10:58
Defiance wrote: 06 Jan 2022, 08:17
SD67 wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 23:21 Jeez I didn’t realise that a day at sea gets more expensive after you transit the Suez canal. I guess we paid 6 billion for a harbour ornament. Small power projection? It was massive. Historians may judge it may even have tipped the power balance calculations in terms of a potential invasion of Taiwan. If so it’s more important than anything we’ve done since 1940.
You're not serious, are you?
Absolutely serious. HMS Richmond was the first ship in years to sail through the Taiwan straight, and HMS QE's airgroup were the first 5th generation Western fighters to come within range of the Island. Message sent.
Message sent that the UK supports the US/Taiwan in this escalation and signal an interest in the region, that's an entirely different magnitude to even thinking that CSG21 "tips the power balance" over Taiwan. We're talking a conflict which would probably encompass >500 warships and >1000 aircraft.

That's not to say we wouldn't make a valiant effort and play a valuable part, but lets not be silly and think CSG21 (or any RN battlegroup) would be the decider.
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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SD67 wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 23:21
SW1 wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 16:33
Repulse wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 13:11
SW1 wrote: 05 Jan 2022, 08:52 I doesn’t appear to be the view of government.

The RN is not in anyway shape or form structured to counter China.
I completely agree the scale / approach of the counter is different between the two. However, I judge HMG by their actions, rather than wording at a point in time. SDRs are virtually outdated at the point they are printed.

Sending the CSG and through AUKUS collaborating on SSNs are clear statements of intent to be part of a multinational effort to counter Chinese aggression. Doesn’t mean we need a Cruiser Squadron parked in Singapore - just the ability and intent to project power at distance, coupled with lower end forward presence.
AUKUS is certainly an intent to show the UK will provide its longest and most trusted friends with the technology to protect themselves as they do with information for mutual benefit. We will have to agree to disagree on the CSG it certainly sailed a long way but it was power projection with very very small p for a very considerable cost.
Jeez I didn’t realise that a day at sea gets more expensive after you transit the Suez canal. I guess we paid 6 billion for a harbour ornament. Small power projection? It was massive. Historians may judge it may even have tipped the power balance calculations in terms of a potential invasion of Taiwan. If so it’s more important than anything we’ve done since 1940.

This sums up in large part the entire problem with the defence debate it’s the delusions of grandeur.

Yes we sailed ships and aircraft around the other side of the world and from a logistical point of view that’s gd as few can deploy anything over that range. But the long and short of it is that after spending around 17b pound acquiring f35 and 2 carriers the total deployed offensive capability is 16 x 500lb bombs and that is what it will remain without spending 100s of millions more so yes power projection with a very very small p. While that allows a political contribution in so far as we were there, to repeat the defence secretary’s words it doesn’t move the dial in the slightest from the perspective of China. A conflict with China the pentagon assess would require 20K targets hit in the first 24hrs which is why the US is adding scores of long range standoff missiles to everything that moves.

The last Royal Navy warship to sail the Taiwan strait was HMS Enterprise in 2019.
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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SW1 wrote: 06 Jan 2022, 16:41 The last Royal Navy warship to sail the Taiwan strait was HMS Enterprise in 2019.
That probably gave more real (rather than political) value than a frigate as it gave both the opportunity to survey the waters (for submarine navigation) and also had specialist surveillance equipment onboard listening into Chinese electronic traffic.
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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A UK CSG won't be considered much of a threat until ...
  • We get to the point where we can (and are, at least occasionally) deploying 30+ F-35 at sea
  • FCASW is brought into service and deployed on a meaningful number of ships
  • The Navy acts on its Future Maritime Aviation Force
  • Those 1000+km hypersonic weapons Radakin talked about actually show up
Also, like it or not, we are weaker without the French on this. A combined UK/French CSG deploying to the Pacific would provide both a significant military gesture but a strong political message. They bring E-2C/D and air-launched heavy stores, we bring a meaningful number of 5th gen fighters *chefs kiss*
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Our committing the Royal Navy's Carrier(s) to NATO would make it easier for the French to send their carrier out east. That would be a more meaningful contribution than sending our CSG. We are already doing this but we would have to be willing to take over France's responsibilities in the Med as well as the Royal Navy's more traditional areas of the North Atlantic ad up north.
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Re: Invasion of Taiwan

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Pseudo wrote: 05 Dec 2021, 18:10I don't really no much about the islands other than where they are, but it would make sense that they're easily defensible because I'd imagine that if they weren't the PRC would have taken them decades ago.
VERY defensible indeed.
Imagine a sheer cliff of rock emerging from the sea, much like an exceptionally tall sea wall. Then imagine the entire island like that, with very few beaches or areas that could be used to land an invasion fleet.
Behind these few areas accessible from the sea, you have mountains into which the Taiwanese have blasted out tunnel systems, fortifications and shelters from which to repel an invader...
Then, you have a military reservist system where a standing army could be reinforced rapidly.

china would have a very hard time in an attempt to invade Taiwan.


Personally I'm waiting for the chinese attention to turn towards land still claimed by them in Russia... Russia's eastern forces have been depleted to shore up Dictator putin's failure in Ukraine.
Dictator jinping might be getting delusions of adequacy.

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