Invasion of Taiwan
Posted: 05 Dec 2021, 09:15
Copied this from another thread as my reply was very Taiwan heavy for a Ukraine thread
But the invasion of Taiwan would be the single largest amphibious assault ever mounted in history. We're probably talking about something 2-3x the magnitude of D-Day at the very least just to hit the main islands and this is before they deal with the sticky issues of the Kinmen Islands*, the Matsu Islands** and the Penghu Islands ***. It's a tricky balance around how many men they need to shave off to capture these key territories prior to the main assault.
In general, the buildup of men, vehicles, equipment, fuel, shipping and resources would be so massive that we would see a ramp-up in evidence and tension the same way we are seeing now with Russia and Ukraine. Massive troop movements, airbase and supply storage expansions, new dispersal areas for air-defence and rocket force units. Marshalling yards packed with PLA tanks and vehicles sitting there waiting to be loaded onto transport vessels, of which there would be many.
In order to do the job with the best chance, the PRC would have to make a lot of decisions which would trip a lot of alarms around the world. It's not the sort of job they can pull off by surprise, Taiwan has a professional force of 130,000 (Wiki) and something like 1M+ reservists. This will require a proper amphibious assault across multiple beachheads with significant deployment of following waves to maintain the momentum.
*Seriously, this is a huge factor. It's akin to if the Germans controlled the Isle of Wight when SHAEF wanted to launch D-Day - it sits 3 miles off the mouth of Xiamen and is garrisoned by Taiwan. It blocks off access to the sea from a major port area which would assuredly need to be used as it sits in a fabulous position to cross the Strait.
**Similar situation Kinmen but the islands are smaller and much further north. If the PLA want to expand the harbours used or bring ships from the North Sea fleet they'll have to pass the Matsu Islands
***Large island of the SW corner of Taiwan and would be used to strike the flanks of any PLA attack
In general I support your idea, that Russia and China may not officially be allies but aware that if they both acted simultaneously, they may be able to achieve their aims more successfully.Pseudo wrote: ↑04 Dec 2021, 20:19 My worry is that an invasion of Ukraine might only be the first move. I've no doubt that western powers being distracted by Ukraine would look like a great opportunity to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially if North Korea were for the same reason to take the opportunity to make their way south.
But the invasion of Taiwan would be the single largest amphibious assault ever mounted in history. We're probably talking about something 2-3x the magnitude of D-Day at the very least just to hit the main islands and this is before they deal with the sticky issues of the Kinmen Islands*, the Matsu Islands** and the Penghu Islands ***. It's a tricky balance around how many men they need to shave off to capture these key territories prior to the main assault.
In general, the buildup of men, vehicles, equipment, fuel, shipping and resources would be so massive that we would see a ramp-up in evidence and tension the same way we are seeing now with Russia and Ukraine. Massive troop movements, airbase and supply storage expansions, new dispersal areas for air-defence and rocket force units. Marshalling yards packed with PLA tanks and vehicles sitting there waiting to be loaded onto transport vessels, of which there would be many.
In order to do the job with the best chance, the PRC would have to make a lot of decisions which would trip a lot of alarms around the world. It's not the sort of job they can pull off by surprise, Taiwan has a professional force of 130,000 (Wiki) and something like 1M+ reservists. This will require a proper amphibious assault across multiple beachheads with significant deployment of following waves to maintain the momentum.
*Seriously, this is a huge factor. It's akin to if the Germans controlled the Isle of Wight when SHAEF wanted to launch D-Day - it sits 3 miles off the mouth of Xiamen and is garrisoned by Taiwan. It blocks off access to the sea from a major port area which would assuredly need to be used as it sits in a fabulous position to cross the Strait.
**Similar situation Kinmen but the islands are smaller and much further north. If the PLA want to expand the harbours used or bring ships from the North Sea fleet they'll have to pass the Matsu Islands
***Large island of the SW corner of Taiwan and would be used to strike the flanks of any PLA attack