Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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SKB
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Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by SKB »

A military offensive by the Taliban and allied militant groups against the government of Afghanistan and its allies began on 1 May 2021, together with the withdrawal of most U.S. and allied troops from Afghanistan.

In the first three months of the offensive the Taliban made significant advances in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controlled from 73 to 223, progressively isolating urban centres. Starting on 6 August, the Taliban captured thirty-three of Afghanistan's thirty-four provincial capitals and by 10 August, the Taliban controlled 65% of the country's area.

The offensive is noted for the rapid territorial gains of the Taliban, as well as its domestic and international ramifications. On 10 August, U.S. officials estimated that the Afghan capital, Kabul, could fall to the Taliban within 30 to 90 days. On 15 August, the Associated Press reported that the Taliban had reached and captured Kabul; thus, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell. The Taliban said that they were awaiting a transfer of power. On 15 August, following the seizure of the capital, the Taliban occupied the Presidential Palace after the incumbent President Ashraf Ghani fled the country.



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SKB
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Re: Afghanistan

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TheLoneRanger
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Re: Afghanistan

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Hopefully the UK goverment has understood the need to maintain military capability - ie the low number of available military transport aircraft is now affecting our ability to support the evacuations of British Citizens and allies from Afghanistan ...

Capability can be lost at the tip of a ben and then takes decades to get back ..

bobp
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by bobp »

Sad news really, a lot the people invading the airport appear to be young men, i assume some must have worked for the Afghan security services. We definitely need more transport Airframes, and a increase in our armed forces manning ASAP.

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SKB
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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(The White House) 16th August 2021

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Cooper
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by Cooper »

Nice one, Biden.

..you senile old @#%!

abc123
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by abc123 »

This withdrawal was a disaster. So much disorganisation and chaos wasn't seen from fall of Saigon. Nazi Germany in late April 1945 wasn't this disorganised.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

Defiance
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by Defiance »

That's what happens when the apparatus of the state collapses and the President flees the country, the average person on the street isn't going to stand up when the Government folds like a stack of cards.

It sure is a **** show, but the Afghan Govt have had twenty years to get their shit together and they clearly haven't. The fault doesn't entirely lie with the US administration.

RunningStrong
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by RunningStrong »

Defiance wrote:That's what happens when the apparatus of the state collapses and the President flees the country, the average person on the street isn't going to stand up when the Government folds like a stack of cards.

It sure is a **** show, but the Afghan Govt have had twenty years to get their shit together and they clearly haven't. The fault doesn't entirely lie with the US administration.
Agreed. Nearly 20 years of training and equipment put into the ANA and armed forces. All to capitulate.

I've seen reports that much of the ANA manning was fraudulent, ghost soldiers purely to extort pay from the government. Maybe, maybe not.

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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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albedo
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by albedo »

I do think you're all rather missing the point here. The strategic mistake was ever to think that neocon nation-building was a viable proposition for such a tribal Islamic 'state'. The whole history of the region tells of the impossibility of this task. Plus it's, relatively speaking, the backyard of China, Pakistan, Iran etc who are always going to want some substantial input into what happens there.

By all means, pursue and deal with Al Qaeda there, which AIUI was the original mission. But once that was accomplished (2005? But whenever) the pull-out should have happened. Delaying the inevitable was not a clever idea and has of course ended in the present melee. The full details of the secret deal that Trump negotiated with the Taliban don't seem to be in the public domain yet but the deal was the hot potato that ended up in Biden's lap. Could the endgame have been better managed - very possibly yes, but I'm not quite sure how.

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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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SW1
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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They shouldn’t be in this position but there doing a great job


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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

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J. Tattersall

International defence & security

Post by J. Tattersall »

As the tragedy in Afghanistan unfolds this report from Deutsche Welle effectively reminds us that international organisations (be it NATO, EU etc.) are merely instruments of foreign policy with national capitals responsible for both successes and failures.
Taliban surge in Afghanistan: EU and NATO in state of shock
https://www.dw.com/en/taliban-surge-in- ... a-58881129

J. Tattersall

Re: International defence & security

Post by J. Tattersall »

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/14 ... 66347?s=20

This tweet by Paul Waugh is important

Gtal
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Re: International defence & security

Post by Gtal »

Remind me what the EU has to do with the invasion of Afghanistan :yawn: :D :D

Seriously. This is a desaster of *US* foreign policy. It's just all the transatlantic shills trying to deflect the blame because they're worried that this fiasco 6 months after the Trump, 2 months after Biden announced the US is back might be too stigmatising to repair.

Just like the media is desperately ignoring the fact that despite Democrats holding Congress, Senate and White House, the stimulus bill will benefit the same superrich as trumps tax cuts and of course climate change didn't even get a look in.

Americna Empire™ in it's death rows?

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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by J. Tattersall »

G7 agrees to ‘road map’ for dealing with the Taliban
But European leaders couldn’t convince the U.S. to stay and continue evacuations beyond August 31.
https://www.politico.eu/article/g7-agre ... e-taliban/

J. Tattersall

Re: International defence & security

Post by J. Tattersall »

In the future, Wallace said that while Britain prefers the United States as a military ally, it may look to form alliances with other countries for specific operations.

"It may actually be more in our interest to join with other partners and we must have a force that is much more able to be interoperable as opposed to dependent," he said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-08-24/

dmereifield
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Re: International defence & security

Post by dmereifield »

J. Tattersall wrote:
In the future, Wallace said that while Britain prefers the United States as a military ally, it may look to form alliances with other countries for specific operations.

"It may actually be more in our interest to join with other partners and we must have a force that is much more able to be interoperable as opposed to dependent," he said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-08-24/
Well we can only believe this if the UK halts its cuts of key strategic assets that would allow us to become a framework nation for such a interoperability and reduced US dependence (along with a substantive uplift in defence spending, on top of the recently announced £4billion per year). Others on here will be better informed of which cuts we'd want to reverse, but I'd imagine it would be AWACS, C130 etc

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The Armchair Soldier
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Re: International defence & security

Post by The Armchair Soldier »

J. Tattersall wrote:As the tragedy in Afghanistan unfolds this report from Deutsche Welle effectively reminds us that international organisations (be it NATO, EU etc.) are merely instruments of foreign policy with national capitals responsible for both successes and failures.
Taliban surge in Afghanistan: EU and NATO in state of shock
https://www.dw.com/en/taliban-surge-in- ... a-58881129
Topic merged with Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

SW1
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by SW1 »

Things deteriorating in Kabul

https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan- ... s-12391238

Two explosions have taken place outside Kabul airport amid the evacuations of thousands of people from Western nations, officials have said.

Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay said his sources had told him the explosion was caused by a suicide bomber blowing himself up in a canalway.

He added: "We're not certain on the number of casualties, we have to assume a number of civilians, but initial reports suggest to us that American soldiers, not British soldiers but American soldiers have been injured."

Dahedd
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Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by Dahedd »

12 US dead & hundreds of Afghan casualties. This is going to be a disaster.

J. Tattersall

Re: Afghanistan - 2021 Taliban offensive

Post by J. Tattersall »

After Triumph in Afghanistan, Foreboding for Pakistan
Tim Willasey-Wilsey
25 August 2021
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... g-pakistan
Pakistan will spend many years regretting its success in Afghanistan. A genuinely inclusive government in Kabul would have been a far better outcome for all concerned.
The first worry is that the Pashtuns of the Afghan Taliban will, after a few years in power, find common cause with their Pashtun kinsmen in Pakistan.
There are politicians in Pakistan who openly espouse the idea of ditching what they regard as an imported quasi-colonial ‘Western democracy’ in favour of something more consistent with local culture and the Islamic faith.
the future possibility (however remote) that a Taliban-type government could come to power in Pakistan emphasises the question of the fate of Pakistan’s large arsenal of nuclear warheads falling into the hands of people who despise everything about Western values.

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