Gtal wrote:Warning: Rant!
It's really sad seeing Turkey going into a Willkommen bei Gboard! Texte, die Sie kopieren, werden hier gespeichert. like this. It's been building up for a while now so it's not a surprise, but damn, do the reaalllyyyy need to get rid of Erdogan!
He's totally on that Powertrip now, he is the law; he is the nation!
Distinguished journalists from Europe, but with turkish passports, jailed on a whim with no due process, no certainty, no transparency.
Erdogans Bodyguards brutalizing protesters in Washington.
Literally rerunning an election because the opposition won.
Not to mention the endless waves of political and official arrests following the apparent coup, that still continue to this day.
Turkey was so eager to present evidence on Saudi crimes to the international community, but now roundly fails to provide basic due process, transparency, separation of powers or checks and balances even while requesting law enforcement cooperation and potential extraditions.
You want to know why Turkey is acting so defiantly towards US and EU and leaning on hard power in it's neighborhood?
Because Erdogan wants to live out some "Great Statesmen" moments and this is the only way he can do it.
Turkeys trade policy is pretty much under the control of the EU, has been for a long time and it was very beneficial to Turkey as a whole in term of QoL, education etc. and then also Erdogan himself who reaped the glory for it domestically.
But over time Turkey became more involved in european trade and scientific cooperation etc as a junior Partner because it never got close to full membership.
This situation highly restricts the ability of Turkey to develop it's own trade and industrial strategies and limits potentially other smaller but more self-controlled frameworks in science and education.
This is a genuine dilemma and if Turkey were to end the arrangements with the EU this requires a collective effort by many highly capable people over many years to redesign and rebuild.
Erdogan and his crowd of yes-men are simply not able to execute such a strategy even if someone else were to provide it.
However the resulting limitations on Turkeys ability to sign agreements and develop schemes independently in ever increasing areas make El Presidente feel increasingly impotent and so he tries to compensate his ego with ever bigger toys instead of focusing on policy at home.
If Turkey wants to move forward, one way or another, Erdogan needs to go, followed by institutional and constitutional reforms and just a total policy reset.
The Kurds are like the Irish in the troubles, targeted and oppressed for centuries purely for religious and nationalistic reasons. And yet it's almost even worse now, with Erdogan basically using the PKK as a tool for domestic distraction and posturing, just like all the "spats" with all of it's neighbours(almost). It's all about the regimes grip on power.
A true statesmen would have long realized the need to find a settlement through genuine humility, compassion and taking responsibility for historic wrongs.
Just like John Major did in Northern Ireland in the 90s.
Parts about Erdogan are mostly true with some nuances, and you got the shot regarding EU-Turkish relations.
First of all, Turkish internal political environment always favored main stream policy makers, and not hard liners. This was because hard liners always meant trouble for Turkey.
However, a big however,
Turkish elite with close ties to West, had little to no knowledge of an average Turkish citizen. These elites run the country up until 2000s, and no matter who wins the elections, these elite run the bureaucracy, foreign relations, and economy. Their rule though, were mainly driven by strict Kemalism. Kemalism is an ideology that aims to transform Turkey into a completely Western society, including culture and even a twisted "westernized" history. This was the way Turkey followed under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic. However, it turned into a bizarre cult in no time. If scientism were a religion, Mustafa Kemal would be its prophet, and Kemalism would be its principles.
In between 1930s to 2000s, Kemalism pushed hard on any religious activity, anyone and anything with links to old culture was deemed archaical. It was a complete wipeout. Even wearing military medals from Ottoman era was prohobited. WW1 veterans could not wear their medals.
New republic was found on completely nationalistic, secular, and "pure" Turkishness. This got two important reactions:
-Kurds, nominally were in good terms with conservative Turks got radicalized.
-Conservative Turks got radicalized.
Everywhere in the world, prohibition brings radicalism. Since political arena was highly Kemalist, Turkish people always favored politicians with mild tone. In 2002, Erdogan was the mildest.
By mild I mean democracy and stuff. (Kemalism is not democratic at all)
However, oppressed ones were in fact majority. They always sought to have a political opportunity to topple Kemalist hegemony. (Kemalists used to say, "you may be elected government, but may never govern")
Erdogan got its main support from US and EU, because he knew if he did not, internal Kemalist hegemony would topple him in no time. At the same time, he was known of his conservative background. It was a no-go for Kemalists.
Until 2010, Erdogan government continuously challenged by Kemalist military and bureaucracy, but he kept them in check and slowly purged them by, Gülenists.
Gülen is a Turkish "preacher" now residing in US. Long story short he is a CIA asset.
Gülenists were the main tool for US to seize Turkish institutions. And Erdogan actually let them. They were allied on the terms;
-Erdogan should remain in power
-Gülenists wipe out Kemalists.
They did so in between 2010-2013. Kemalist hegemony wiped out. It was a literal purge. But at these times US and EU was indeed supporting these purges. These purges were just as "unjust" as post coup purges.
But it was OK for EU and US. So they did nothing. (If there is one country knows western double standards, of course it is Turkey)
When Kemalists are gone, Erdogan had Gülenists at his crosshairs. Because he could not let them run the country. Because Erdogan wanted a strong Turkey leading pan-Turkic, pan-Islamic world. Kemalism was a passifist, secular ideology that is not interested in being a large power. Just like, guess what, Gülenism.
So, Gülenists realized Erdogan's aspirations and started their struggle. But there was a main problem. Gülenists were also conservative but conservative people liked Erdogan way more than Gülen.
Gülenist clique did many things but the pinnacle was 2016 coup attempt. After which both Kemalists and Erdoganists wiped out Gülenists.
Erdogan remained sole power. But problem was, majority of country's educated base were either Gülenist or Kemalist Erdoğan just purged (smiley was here) so Erdogan had very little capable statesmen.
Throughout these chaos, he did one thing though, he managed to set main waypoints to completely independent military-industrial complex. Since 2004, steadily but progressively, he kept defence industry on rise.
Erdogan is no angel. Actually he has lots of mistakes and unjust stuff done. But a foreigner must understand the internal dynamics of Turkey that kept him the way he is. Aligning Europe is cool and all, but at the same time, Turkish geo political interests clash with EU in Mediterranean, Cyprus and Middle East. Turkish Petroleum Company takes petroleum extraction rights in Libya, Somalia and Cyprus, with strong political and military backing of Turkey. Markets previously dominated by Total, ENI or Exxon now sees Turkish Petroleum as well. European bribes are offset by Turkish bribes and military backing. Especially France lost many opportunity in Libya because of this.
After all these, Turkish public opinion strictly opposes foreign backing. Erdogan is still powerful because he has no foreign backing. That is why although challenged, he has a strong support internally. (with strong opposition of course)
My opinion is, Turkey must have an independent alternative with strong emphasis on national interests, but less radicalized. By radical I do not mean Turkish foreign influence, but rather political rhetoric. Erdogans rhetoric is archaic in my opinion. But still, Turkish sphere of influence will have to grow bigger and bigger in order to feed Turkish economy.
UK did not lose much from this Turkish expansion, and maybe bacause of that reason UK does not see any problem in supporting Turkish 5th generation fighter programme, or does not apply a strict embargo like EU or US, but EU's markets, especially France's is now at danger.