Turkish Armed Forces

[Lord Jim]

You say Politics is led by reason but Turkey is led by a man elected by a population that do not look to NATO or the West for its values or ideals. The Military, once guardian of the secular state have been coerced and indoctrinated by leaders belief in Islamic Nationalism. It is because Turkey is seen as being indispensable and sacred, and there is a fear it would turn to Russia that its behaviour is tolerated. This was the same with how many right wing dictatorships in the past? Where do we draw the line or can the Leaders of Turkey do whatever they like without fear of sanction by others. The fact that we bend over backward to sell them the latest military hardware only makes things worse and like the Gulf, it could come back to bite us.

[abc123]

You say Politics is led by reason but Turkey is led by a man elected by a population that do not look to NATO or the West for its values or ideals. The Military, once guardian of the secular state have been coerced and indoctrinated by leaders belief in Islamic Nationalism. It is because Turkey is seen as being indispensable and sacred, and there is a fear it would turn to Russia that its behaviour is tolerated. This was the same with how many right wing dictatorships in the past? Where do we draw the line or can the Leaders of Turkey do whatever they like without fear of sanction by others. The fact that we bend over backward to sell them the latest military hardware only makes things worse and like the Gulf, it could come back to bite us.

I do agree with you. Soon, even the reason will see that any percieved benefits of having Turkey inside NATO are becoming a thing of the past. Every day of Sultan-rule in Turkey is one day closer to that moment. Also, about Russia, I would say to Russians- good luck with cooperation with the Turks. Because if ever existed unnatural alliance- that's it.

[Lord Jim]

Mind you a decade or so ago they were getting friendly with Israel then the government changed to the current megalomaniac. I wonder what would happen if Turkish artillery or airpower wonder or killer US Army SF supporting the Kurds?

With how Turkey is evolving, what could happen in Saudi Arabia and the chance of a Iran/Iraq super state in all but name, we really have done a bang up job sorting out the middle east, especially as one of the above WILL get nuclear weapons within a decade, the money on offer is just too great and Pakistan is already making them as fast as they can to compete with India. Saudi has IRBMs bought from China in silos that can reach with a substantial range and again Pakistan is developing similar and greater ranged weapons.

As for Russia, the troubled relationship between Turkey and others is music the Putin's ears and clears the way for any land grabs he may have on the drawing board of non Muslim nations in the region. They are already becoming a supplier of Military hardware such as the S400 systems bought recently and have also purchase fairly large numbers of wheeled AFVs for internal security work.

Turkey has received substantial technology transfers from both Europe and the USA and is now looking to both Russia and the far east. It won't be long until they purchase advanced anti-ship weapons from Russia or China to gain leverage over the Aegean and Black Sea, effectively becoming the door keeper to the latter, a situation made worse if they turn more towards Russia.

How long until Greece becomes another Baltics where NATO has to station trip wire forces to deter Turkish opportunistic moves against say a number of Greek Islands. If the have Russia's veto backing them the UN could not stop them and without UN backing Europe and/or NATO can do nothing.

Ok this is an Armageddon scenario, but we have already let the Turkish leadership get away with totally unacceptable behaviour regarding the rule of law and civil rights, and we are going to see an Islamic State evolve on Europe's southern border sooner rather then later. Oh how I wish the Generals had got their act together a few years back and planned things properly. Religion and politics always screw things up when combined.

[eagle spotters]

Meanwhile...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... 26c9f3244a

the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming more and more boiling, not only for the gas contained under its seabed ...
One of the reasons for which the Italian Navy has begun its empowerment.

[abc123]

Meanwhile...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... 26c9f3244a

the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming more and more boiling, not only for the gas contained under its seabed ...
One of the reasons for which the Italian Navy has begun its empowerment.

Well, we shall see what the Italian Government will do. And will their empowerment of navy be for nothing.

[abc123]

Oh how I wish the Generals had got their act together a few years back and planned things properly. Religion and politics always screw things up when combined.

Meh, IMHO the whole thing was just a set up, made by/allowed by Erdogan. Something like Reichstag fire 1933. I do agree about bolded part.

[Lord Jim]

I think you could be right there, making the opposition show their hand early.

[abc123]

I think you could be right there, making the opposition show their hand early.

Or, on the other hand, maybe a better comparison would be Night of the long knifes- because that was mostly inter-Nazi conflict, like this was inter-Islamist ( against Gulen ) conflict, while using the opportunity to establish full control over Armed Forces ( if Ergenekon trials weren't enough ).

[SALDIRAY]

[dmereifield]

So where does the ban on F35 deliveries leave Turkey now? Their economy is tanking, so that's their 5/6th gen out thr window too. How urgently do they need replacements fast jets, and what are their options?

[Lord Jim]

Turkey is going the direction the actions of its leaderships have caused it to. As for new planes I am sure Russia or China would happily sell them some.

[xav]

Other questions:
- What impact on the F35 program as a whole ?
- And any collateral consequences, such as that 4.5 / 5th generation fighter currently under development with Uk's BAE Systems

[Lord Jim]

Little or no impact on F-35 programme and partnering with Turkey was a bad idea to begin with whilst the current Government is in power and acting the way it is.

[Halidon]

So where does the ban on F35 deliveries leave Turkey now? Their economy is tanking, so that's their 5/6th gen out thr window too. How urgently do they need replacements fast jets, and what are their options?

It not a ban, it's a hold which is to last until the Department of Defense delivers a report to Congress on Turkish relations and various issues surrounding their military. That report must be submitted within 90 days, and there's no language to prolong the hold after the report is delivered. So in 3 months or less deliveries will resume, unless they scrap together a new, long-term ban in the meantime.

[xav]

Little or no impact on F-35 programme

Not so sure...

Pentagon correspondent to ForeignPolicy.com, Lara Seligman, wrote that, “Several key components of the jet are manufactured by Turkish companies, and the U.S. Defense Department estimates it will take two years to find and qualify new suppliers to replace any Turkish firms that are kicked out of the program. Meanwhile, the main European hub for the F-35’s engine repair and overhaul is in Eskisehir, in northwestern Turkey.” As a result of the engine repair hub being located in Eskisehir, Turkey, maintenance delays for other European users of the F-35 could emerge while other engine repair facility provisions are arranged.
https://theaviationist.com/?p=58866

Plus

Although around 10 Turkish companies build various components of the planes, Ayesaş is the sole provider of the panoramic cockpit display and its missile remote interface unit. https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2018 ... components

[Lord Jim]

Obviously there would be some delays, but given the small size of the European F-35 fleets both now and over the next few years, the disruption will not be significant, in fact now is the time to do such things. Yes Turkey is building components but these are US designs so really all that is required is for a company to set up an alternative production line, and I cannot see many companies not wanting to gain the work form the biggest aviation programme that is on going.

Of course this all depends on how serious the US is in taking economic action against Turkey, and whether there are changes within Turkey in the near future.

[Timmymagic]

Obviously there would be some delays, but given the small size of the European F-35 fleets both now and over the next few years, the disruption will not be significant, in fact now is the time to do such things.

You have to wonder how many European nations are generally happy about relying on the Turks for maintenance of the engines. I'd say the envisaged maintenance facility is a dead duck right now.

[Lord Jim]

The actual programme for bringing the F-35 into service is really still in its early stages as is building the infrastructure in Europe to support it. Adding a year or two on to the programme would not be a serious issue compared to a major support facility being in a country that may become more difficult to deal with. It is not too hard to imagine the Turkish Government blocking or delaying the work on a the engines of a nation that has upset their feelings.

[Timmymagic]

It is not too hard to imagine the Turkish Government blocking or delaying the work on a the engines of a nation that has upset their feelings.

I think Pratt and Whitney will be getting rather nervous about the facility in Turkey. I rather suspect the Dutch and Norwegian facilities will be being expanded rather soon...

[ArmChairCivvy]

Congress has not stepped on the brake yet (but just received a Pentagon report on the F-35 deal with Turkey)
"Turkey is due to receive its third and fourth jets in March next year. Its pilots are receiving training on the first two aircraft at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. The earliest the first aircraft could leave the United States is next summer, although it may take longer than that. "

[ayibarishi]

Trump decided to leave Syria. Turkish Army holds military operation in the limited time window. After Americans retreat, operation Euphrates Sword is begun. The Lord will be with the Turkish Army I hope. It's logical to UK middle and long-term interests also...

[SW1]

Oh look it’s spawned another variant

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... conversion

In common with other Global 6000 modifications, such as the Saab GlobalEye and Project Dolphin aircraft for the UAE, the Hava SOJ conversion requires extensive airframe modifications to add large sensor fairings. The aircraft is intended to provide a remote electronic support/electronic attack (ED/ET in Turkish nomenclature) capability, and will be equipped with a comprehensive ESM (electronic support measures) suite to detect and locate hostile radar transmissions and communications, and a powerful jamming suite to deceive and jam those emissions. In service, he aircraft is primarily intended to operate from stand-off range to suppress enemy air defenses and protect tactical aircraft during operations.

[ArmChairCivvy]

a powerful jamming suite to deceive and jam those emissions. In service, he aircraft is primarily intended to operate from stand-off range to suppress enemy air defenses and protect tactical aircraft during operations.

Hee-heh, they can practice with their own series 400 SAMs and that should work over Syria (as they only field 300s, for now)
- how long did the previous foray into Syrian airspace last?

[ArmChairCivvy]

SORRY about the double; hackers constantly chiselling at my VPN

a powerful jamming suite to deceive and jam those emissions. In service, he aircraft is primarily intended to operate from stand-off range to suppress enemy air defenses and protect tactical aircraft during operations.

Hee-heh, they can practice with their own series 400 SAMs and that should work over Syria (as they only field 300s, for now)
- how long did the previous foray into Syrian airspace last?

[abc123]

The Lord will be with the Turkish Army I hope.

So, Allah hates Arabs and Kurds?