UK Defence Forum

This is an incredible thread...

Seems like a reasonably informed analysis of the air war in Ukraine thus far: (Don't be put off by the redtop title)

So what do we think is next for Ukraine, force a crossing of the Dnipro, Attack south to Melitpol or following the Russians force that pulled out of Kherson to the East?

Perhaps a push towards Mariupol, to cut the supply routes along the coast, followed by destruction of the Kerch bridge?
All of Crimea becomes a kettle for Russian troops

Maybe that's too obvious. Whatever they do, it will probably take everyone by surprise.

Pushing aside something like 200,000 often well dug in troops easier said than done ,the foliage providing cover in trees that both sides have hidden beneath will be gone allowing drones to easier find them

Zeno wrote: ↑19 Nov 2022, 21:34 Pushing aside something like 200,000 often well dug in troops easier said than done ,the foliage providing cover in trees that both sides have hidden beneath will be gone allowing drones to easier find them

True - also Ukraines trained soldiers are now hitting the frontlines in mass aswell, and Russia's best soldiers have mostly expired by now. Everwhere Ukraine has sought to push, they have been successful. Sure - they have paid a price for it - but then this is war. The land bridge between Russia and Crimea will be cut soon and with that - the entire logic of Putin's war will come crashing down.

I have not seen any claims that Russia's best troops have in your words expired , they are still in a large area of Donbas and Luhansk attacking ,Russian forces still have the advantage in numbers of artillery and aircraft

Zeno wrote: ↑20 Nov 2022, 11:15 I have not seen any claims that Russia's best troops have in your words expired , they are still in a large area of Donbas and Luhansk attacking ,Russian forces still have the advantage in numbers of artillery and aircraft

The VDV, Marine Infantry, 1 GTA have all had such verifiably large casualties that I don't see how anyone could make that claim...

Christ Russia is barely able to do the simplest combined arms operations at present...

Jdam wrote: ↑19 Nov 2022, 14:45 So what do we think is next for Ukraine, force a crossing of the Dnipro, Attack south to Melitpol or following the Russians force that pulled out of Kherson to the East?

Tokmak, then Melitopol is the obvious move (obvious to the Russian's as well though). Near totally isolates the remains of the western group of Russian forces (there are after all ferries to Crimea, and a very small road and bridge right on the Azov coast), puts the Russian logistics centre at Henichesk in GMLRS range, allows an approach to Energodar as well.

If...and its a big if...the Ukrainian's could pull that off the Russian's would have no choice but to pull back to Crimea. Unless the Ukrainian's could do it on the march getting into Crimea is tricky though...only 3 real roads in. 2 of which are very easily denied, the other 1 will be a fortress (Krasnoperokopsk). But that would be a double edged sword for the Russians. Bottlenecks work both ways...The Ukrainian's could block it off with a Brigade of TDF. The logistics situation for the Russian's would mean the Ukrainian's could leave it to wither on the vine, the Russian's couldn't risk de-garrisoning it to transfer forces elsewhere. Essentially the Ukrainian's could pin a lot of Russian forces in Crimea with little effort, like they are on the Dnipro now, whilst switching the bulk of their forces for a drive along the Azov coast past Mariupol.

Timmymagic wrote: ↑20 Nov 2022, 13:19

Zeno wrote: ↑20 Nov 2022, 11:15 I have not seen any claims that Russia's best troops have in your words expired , they are still in a large area of Donbas and Luhansk attacking ,Russian forces still have the advantage in numbers of artillery and aircraft

The VDV, Marine Infantry, 1 GTA have all had such verifiably large casualties that I don't see how anyone could make that claim...

Christ Russia is barely able to do the simplest combined arms operations at present...

There are Orynx that do provide estimations of losses to both sides that have some verification rather than claims from either side that can be optimistic Moscow calling here provides some claims on tank losses by Russia not including captured tanks for obvious reasons

Im not arguing for Russia's competence, trying to understand the reasoning why you could have inexperienced virtually untrained soldiers put straight on the front line with the experienced better trained soldiers in defence troops in secondary positions behind them ,that often these troops may have come from the prison system either as volunteers or drafted on release suggests some social engineering that borders on eugenics in getting rid of unwelcome domestic elements .
U.S estimates that the Ukrainian losses are very similar to Russian losses
https://bnn-news.com/us-estimates-aroun ... ine-239934
you could expect Ukraine's losses in experienced troops would also have been high

Zeno wrote: ↑20 Nov 2022, 21:46 There are Orynx that do provide estimations of losses to both sides that have some verification rather than claims from either side that can be optimistic Moscow calling here provides some claims on tank losses by Russia not including captured tanks for obvious reasons

Moscow Calling is ripping that spreadsheet off someone else..Robbert Tulp who has been maintaining it.

But...the Military Balance's figures are possibily incorrect. US and UK estimates of Russian active tank strength before the war were around 3,000....not 3417...so the position could be even worse.

Timmymagic wrote: ↑21 Nov 2022, 08:05

Zeno wrote: ↑20 Nov 2022, 21:46 There are Orynx that do provide estimations of losses to both sides that have some verification rather than claims from either side that can be optimistic Moscow calling here provides some claims on tank losses by Russia not including captured tanks for obvious reasons

Moscow Calling is ripping that spreadsheet off someone else..Robbert Tulp who has been maintaining it.

But...the Military Balance's figures are possibily incorrect. US and UK estimates of Russian active tank strength before the war were around 3,000....not 3417...so the position could be even worse.

Tanks like the t-62 have not made the list yet there are rumours of t-55s too

Zeno wrote: ↑21 Nov 2022, 13:10 Tanks like the t-62 have not made the list yet there are rumours of t-55s too

The Russian's have actually scrapped all their T-55. T-62 is as bad as it gets for them. T-62 are not on those lists as they were removed from storage, not front line use.

Oryx is including a number of t-62s and T-64s on its lists
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html
Also the Ukrainian s have a very mixed collections of tanks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 849e630a51

A tell all tour on attitudes leading up to the start of conflict

The amount of destroyed and damaged (presumably mainly beyond repair or it would be in factories being repaired) armour that Russia have managed to retrieve from the battlefield and take to a storage site just across the border is just madness:



(Also rather amusing that Ukrainians are well aware of the Oryx / Rebel44 list)

I saw a few in that film without turrets but many appeared intact it could be that many will be repaired from cannabalised vehicles and sent back either way it needs some verifiable information

Jdam wrote: ↑23 Nov 2022, 09:46

Ok I think I know where these are from...Seaking long since left UK military service, but the company HeliOperations continues to operate them and trains pilots from around the world on them (including Germany).

HeliOps have sites at Portland, Culdrose...and Somerton...

Think these helicopters are from the warehouse at Somerton.

https://helioperations.co/somerton

They had the following types of SeaKing in storage at Somerton warehouse:

ASaC.7 - 7 x AWACS helos...stripped of radar, these won't be sent

HAR.3 - 5 x Search and Rescue helos

HC.4 - 3 x Transport

HU.5 at Portland - HeliOps also have 3 x flying HU.5 at their Portland heliport used for training. Doubtful they'd part with these...this will be where the Ukrainians were trained.

There are no Anti-Submarine Helicopters stored with HeliOps.

The only ones ASW that UK MoD could get access to are those at HMS Sultan in Gosport. Specifically those in the Whittle Hangar.

At Gosport (Whittle Hangar) there are:

HAS.6 - 9 x ASW helos

ASaCs - 4 x AWACS helos....

HC.4 - 1 x helo

I can't see the Gosport helos being sent, suspect they would need some work, so I think these are from HeliOps store at Somerton, which means they're HAR.3 SAR helos or HC.4 transport, both of which could be rather useful for Ukrainian special forces...

Interesting analysis of the early days of the air war. It seems that Russian ECM was too effective and actually jammed Russian ground troops comms, forcing them to switch it off.

It's the DM, but the analysis is from Dr. Justin Bronk at RUSI
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html

R.A.F is one of a number of countries flying over the Black Sea picking up electronic signals etc. with a Rivet aircraft ,would a Poseidon doing flyovers in international waters be able to pass on any such information gathered there?

“But those weapons are burning out after months of overuse, or being damaged or destroyed in combat, and dozens have been taken off the battlefield for repairs // According to U.S. defence officials, close to 350 howitzers supplied to Kyiv are out of action at any given time // The Pentagon has set up a repair facility to help Ukrainians replace barrels of their Western-made howitzers which suffer from wear and tear due to extensive use"

https://tvpworld.com/64746995/pentagon- ... and-report

Hi - just a small clarification to the above which is that circa 350 is the total number of artillery pieces supplied and of those up to a third are unusable at any given time.

I can understand the requirement to change artillery tubes because of barrel life in many armies a count would be kept of how many rounds used etc. with monitoring of barrel before their changing ,it would be difficult to do this in Ukraine with the tanks whose barrels also have a limited life , obviously a tank barrel bursting can be dangerous

https://www.inkl.com/news/two-army-pers ... rrel-burst
Perhaps some of the writers here can provide some idea of how long some of these old tanks may continue their combat without barrel maintenance
https://scienceinfo.net/pleasant-surpri ... conds.html