The war in Ukraine

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Caribbean
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Caribbean »

Well, if Putin decides to send longer-ranged missiles to Belarus, that would give the US a window of opportunity to supply them to Ukraine "in retaliation" for Russia escalating the situation.
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Zeno
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Zeno »

I would suggest that the himar system can be vulnerable to drones I have not read of any protection being deployed with them e.g anti aircraft units with radar

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

They're firing at night time mostly to avoid air recon.

I would also like the production of like 200 dummy HIMARS.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A good chance that a significant Russian force will be trapped on the western side of the Dnepr. They should have heeded history as at the end of the Thirteen Years' War over Ukraine "In 1664 peace negotiations began. According to the truce, Ukraine was divided along the Dnieper River; Russia received the eastern portion of Ukraine"
- will history become to know the current episode as "Two Bridges Too Far"?
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by wargame_insomniac »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 25 Jul 2022, 13:35 A good chance that a significant Russian force will be trapped on the western side of the Dnepr. They should have heeded history as at the end of the Thirteen Years' War over Ukraine "In 1664 peace negotiations began. According to the truce, Ukraine was divided along the Dnieper River; Russia received the eastern portion of Ukraine"
- will history become to know the current episode as "Two Bridges Too Far"?
I hope it happens as it will be a futther setback for Putin - notwithstanding Russia's inevitable attempt to claim it as a planned withdrawal as they had already achieved their objectives!!

I can understand why Russia had tried to push to Odessa though. Remove Ukranian presence from Black Sea, create a land corridor to Transnistria, and claim higher percentage of recently discovered oil and natural gas reserves in the region.

If Ukraine can clear west bank of Dnepr then will help their morale and hopefully keep West committed to supplying munitions and weapons gor use vs Russia.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

wargame_insomniac wrote: 25 Jul 2022, 18:52 Remove Ukranian presence from Black Sea, create a land corridor to Transnistria, and claim higher percentage of recently discovered oil and natural gas reserves in the region.

If Ukraine can clear west bank of Dnepr then will help their morale
No ports left on the Azov Sea is v bad for the future of the heavy industries in Ukraine.

Keeping the other ports will keep not just agriculture but many other industries going.
- now, clear the West "Bank"
- take the fresh water supplies for Crimea
- blow up the "Putin's delight" bridge (now they have a land corridor instead, though)
... and thenstart to negotiate: Like Mr. Putin, would you like to keep in place the achievements of Catherine The Great? Shall we drink to that? Vodka, then (water is in scarce supply, apologies 8-) )
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

There have been remarks that (the HIMARS feat of blowing up 50 ammo depots aside) Ukraine is burning through its supply of rounds for the Soviet era pieces as artillery duels have become the prominent feature, at this stage of the war
- a concern (as is where the 7.62 'Kurz' for the majority of infantry units can be sourced from)

There is still a transition going on (and therewith sources exist, though they may have been whittled down in 'training' - with the final disposal somewhat in view), like for instance
- April 15, 2022: Dana 152mm 8x8 self-propelled howitzer was used for combat operations in Ukraine.
- the above from the Czechs;
- a bit later the Slovaks sent more of the same thing (but they were already in 155 NATO)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This compilation by armyrecognition.com [ from official US records] reflects well what the Ukrainians have captured from the oppo, but not with enough rounds to feed the pieces:
"152mm rounds for 2A36 Giatsint; 152mm rounds for D-20 cannons; VOG-17 for automatic grenade launcher AGS-17; 120mm mortar rounds (non-NATO); 122mm rounds for 2S1 Gvozdika; BM-21 GRAD Rockets; 300mm rounds/rockets for MLRS "Smerch;" VOG-25 grenades for under-barrel grenade launcher GP-25; 82mm mortar rounds; 125mm HE ammunition for T-72; 152mm rounds for 2A65 Msta"
- Smerch rockets might be a bit ask (who else than Russia and India uses them?)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 26 Jul 2022, 16:56 - Smerch rockets might be a bit ask (who else than Russia and India uses them?)
I think India might possibly manufacture them. I found this quote:
The Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) of the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD), Rosoboronexport, and Splav signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to form a joint venture (JV) to manufacture five versions of Smerch rockets in August 2012. Russia agreed to provide the technology required for the manufacturing of the rockets.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Caribbean
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 26 Jul 2022, 16:56 - Smerch rockets might be a bit ask (who else than Russia and India uses them?)
I think India might possibly manufacture them. I found this quote:
The Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) of the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD), Rosoboronexport, and Splav signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to form a joint venture (JV) to manufacture five versions of Smerch rockets in August 2012. Russia agreed to provide the technology required for the manufacturing of the rockets.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Bulgaria is the only country producing 152, 120 and GRAD for Ukraine.

Sadly the Russian influence is causing difficulty for the Pro Ukraine PM.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: 26 Jul 2022, 17:49 I think India might possibly manufacture them.
Thx, I knew that they use them but did not know about manufacture.

However, with India's ependence on Russian suport for many other systems
it is unlikely they want to 'upset' by selling rockets to tubes captured by Ukraine
- big fertilizer & oil deals will also play into the picture

The 'West' is foing a lot to help India builld defences to err defend its democracy against the northern autocratic neighbour. At the same time they effectively lend support to. an other autocracy that is trying to squash democracy (and sovereignty more broadly) in Ukraine - go figure
- actually v simple; beggars can't be too choosy?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

sunstersun wrote: 27 Jul 2022, 07:22 Bulgaria is the only country producing 152
There are others where 152 is still inventory
... and as it is on its way out, the whole stock pile of rounds might be up for 'grabs'... even gifting
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Zeno
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Zeno »

The article is not easy to read ,so cannot provide an accurate response but the suggestion that the attack on Kiev was a diversion and the troops involved knew and expected to die does need evidence . Certainly a number of Russian senior commanders are believed to have been dismissed from their positions for the earlier "setbacks" this also is believed why their is now a centralised command in place ,there were earlier suggestions that had Russia attacked in force from the East for the Donbass region in the first place ,they would be in a better position with significantly reduced losses . Certainly the long lines of Russian military columns parked on the roads and vulnerable early in this campaign did not not suggest a "Cunning Plan" unless the generals name was Baldrick

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Ukraine drew a line across the bridge in Kherson with HIMARS.



Sadly, it's going to be a siege. But, on the bright side, it's much higher odds of victory.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

sunstersun wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 00:51 Ukraine drew a line across the bridge in Kherson
It was politically (propaganda-wise) not wise :crazy: to call the war Russia started a winter war, if there is any truth in the latest assessment of 75k (50%) of the initial force killed or wounded.
- would tally with the Winter War 'original' where the initial force was 500k, an operational 'pause' was necessary, to up the numbers to a million. And 250-280k of those (combined) contributed to the casualty figure

The Russians did even better then: 5 axes of advancing, with no connection to each other
- now only 4... or whatever is the revised number

We will soon see the already forgotten term "motti" coming up... when the Russians on the wrong side of the Dnjepr realise what they landed themselves in ( won't add any descriptive language :D ).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The folks at Yale (and I have a double-reliable source , as the mouth piece is https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gn=DM14043)
are saying that one should take some time to look at the figures, before becoming just a parrot for something that has been repeated for long enough so as to become "a" truth. Or poured in through all possible channels, for the same effect
- of course in Russia's case, withholding information (as per the article) is a powerful weapon as well... if you can't see it, you can't look at it so as to fit another part to the "big picture"

Can't remember the source (2014), but it was claimed that the Foreign Office was down to ONE Kremlinologist... understandable as the need to study of the policies and practices of the former Soviet government was not there (supposedly), though the next gvmnt, then, increasingly turned to the old practices
- a hat tip to the folks at Yale
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)


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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by R686 »


unbelievable, what the.....

bobp
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by bobp »

Savages from the dark ages, definitely a ware crime.

TheLoneRanger
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Shocking - truly shock - no rules for the russians at all.

This is why i am in favour of sending as much as ukraine can absorb so that the ukranians can throw out these invaders from their homelands..

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

And then to distract everyone from the worst war crime ever recorded, Russia does a false flag and kills a bunch of POWs.

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swoop
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by swoop »

Article seems to not mention that they executed the P.o.W. after doing that.

Bastard scum of the earth. The statement from the only russian minister of parliament who voted against Dictator putin's 2014 invasion of Crimea, comes to mind... "Nothing good has ever come out of russia".

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Will be interesting to see if such actions result in a change to the ROE issued to NATO troops.

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