The war in Ukraine

[SW1]

Bloody Europe. It's been 8 years since they invaded Ukraine the first time and they've elected to remain over the barrel.

The transition to alternative energy can't come quick enough for me.

Or more exploitation of the existing and new uk gas and energy fields to isolate uk as much possible until such time that large population centre energy storage capacity is possible with alternative energy.

[dmereifield]

Bloody Europe. It's been 8 years since they invaded Ukraine the first time and they've elected to remain over the barrel.

The transition to alternative energy can't come quick enough for me.

Or more exploitation of the existing and new uk gas and energy fields to isolate uk as much possible until such time that large population centre energy storage capacity is possible with alternative energy.

Don't see the current political class, with the MSM being what it is, being able to do it. Hope to be proven wrong

[Caribbean]

Bloody Europe. It's been 8 years since they invaded Ukraine the first time and they've elected to remain over the barrel.

The transition to alternative energy can't come quick enough for me.

Or more exploitation of the existing and new uk gas and energy fields to isolate uk as much possible until such time that large population centre energy storage capacity is possible with alternative energy.

Don't see the current political class, with the MSM being what it is, being able to do it. Hope to be proven wrong

The point was put to the PM yesterday in Parliament and he agreed that it would be far more sensible to exploit our own energy resources in a "transitional period to carbon neutrality", rather than import over great distances from elsewhere

[ArmChairCivvy]

I think you need to remember that Ukraine is a vast vast country we probably aren’t seeing the full picture I’m sure there fighting hard.

It is so terribly sad to see so many frightened families who ask for none of it.


It appears america is moving armoured brigade combat team into Germany

Will be interesting to see if they will ship them... and keep the kit in Ft. Trump (I think that did not pass, in the end?), prepositioned, for another similar unit to be flown over (in more hurry).

[ArmChairCivvy]

The point was put to the PM yesterday in Parliament and he agreed that it would be far more sensible to exploit our own energy resources in a "transitional period

Rishi had already made the (tax) move... don't those guys compare notes

[ArmChairCivvy]

Politico, of yesterday, picked this one up:
"BERLIN — Alfons Mais, the chief of the German army, has sharply criticized the state of the country’s armed forces, slamming underinvestment in its military equipment against the backdrop of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The Bundeswehr, the army that I am privileged to lead, is more or less bare. The options that we can offer the politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited,” Mais wrote in a Linkedin post on Thursday morning.

“We all saw it coming and were not able to get through with our arguments, to draw the conclusions from the Crimean annexation and implement them. This does not feel good! I am pissed off!” ["]

It is their Light Division that is supposed to team up with the only modernised Romanian (mech) bde, but the way things are happening
"NATO is looking to establish battle groups in the southeast of the alliance, including in Romania.

France has offered to lead the new deployment in that country." according to thedefencepost of today

[SW1]

Politico, of yesterday, picked this one up:
"BERLIN — Alfons Mais, the chief of the German army, has sharply criticized the state of the country’s armed forces, slamming underinvestment in its military equipment against the backdrop of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The Bundeswehr, the army that I am privileged to lead, is more or less bare. The options that we can offer the politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited,” Mais wrote in a Linkedin post on Thursday morning.

“We all saw it coming and were not able to get through with our arguments, to draw the conclusions from the Crimean annexation and implement them. This does not feel good! I am pissed off!” ["]

It is their Light Division that is supposed to team up with the only modernised Romanian (mech) bde, but the way things are happening
"NATO is looking to establish battle groups in the southeast of the alliance, including in Romania.

France has offered to lead the new deployment in that country." according to thedefencepost of today

If this crisis can perhaps shake Germany from a pacifists stance back toward its stance as west Germany then it will be a positive.

It will be particularly interesting to see how attitudes change in Finland which I know you have good knowledge of acc.

[dmereifield]

Bloody Europe. It's been 8 years since they invaded Ukraine the first time and they've elected to remain over the barrel.

The transition to alternative energy can't come quick enough for me.

Or more exploitation of the existing and new uk gas and energy fields to isolate uk as much possible until such time that large population centre energy storage capacity is possible with alternative energy.

Don't see the current political class, with the MSM being what it is, being able to do it. Hope to be proven wrong

The point was put to the PM yesterday in Parliament and he agreed that it would be far more sensible to exploit our own energy resources in a "transitional period to carbon neutrality", rather than import over great distances from elsewhere

Words are cheap...

[ArmChairCivvy]

It's not a surprise to anyone that Turkey will not follow the sanctions decisions (economic = more EU than NATO)
but this will be interesting:


BRUSSELS (AP) — With a military intervention in Ukraine off the table, countries around the world looked to heap more financial punishment on Moscow, including the European Union’s approval of an asset freeze on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The EU’s unanimous decision, part of a broader sanctions package, indicated that Western powers are moving toward unprecedented measures to try to force Putin to stop the brutal invasion of Russia’s neighbor and from unleashing a major war in Europe.

Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said the move would be “a unique step in history toward a nuclear power, a country that has a permanent seat on the Security Council, but also shows … how united we are.”

Now, Switzerland only has an association with the EU, but Lichtenstein is in full economic union with the former, so will they both pay attention? Namely, those who have researched Putin's wealth held abroad believe there are $70 bn worth of oil "commissions" held there

[Lord Jim]

The announced sanctions are still far from enough. Russia needs to be treated as a Pariah, with zero access to trade, travel etc with the Western World and as many allied nations as possible.

What really bugs me is NATO was more than happy to conduct operations outside of Europe, and the UK is now basing its foreign policy on the country being a force for good, etc. one of the first things announced when this trouble began was that the use of military force was off the Table. Was not protecting a sovereign nation in Europe from a hostile aggressor not a mission for the good of all? Surely deploying NATO's high readiness forces into Ukraine before Russia began its invasion would have give Putin/Hitler food for thought. But is says troops were off the table we gave Putin the green light.

Europe is going to have to reset itself, especially NATO members, back to the posture of the late cold war, especially in its view of defence. Russia's actions should have shattered Politicians view that talking can solve all problems and realise that you need a big stick to back up your words. We are not talking a few thousand soldiers of a dozen more tanks, we are talking substantial growth, bringing NATO's force levels of units able to rapidly react in Days or even hours of being put on alert. The Baltic Air Patrols need to be increased in size as does NATO activity in the Baltic and up North.

If our leaders continue to live in La La Land and act the same as they did after Crimea, and go beyond sanctions aimed solely at individuals. The Russian people have to see what Putin's actions have brought on their country.

Sorry I am ranting but the whole situation has me livid to be polite, not just at Putin but at the Wests leaders.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Funny that (not!), at this moment, when it has gone to war on a neighbor, Russia is serving as president of the UN Security Council
- 50 countries signed up 'to abuse of power' notice in the UN; the veto in no way being tied to being in the 'president's chair'

To note is that India and the UAE abstained in the condemnation vote; pillars that we are building our security posture on in far flung lands (and oceans).

Closer to Russia's near-abroad, Lukashenko has clearly sold his country's independence to save his own skin, but Kazakhstan has shown some backbone - probably to set a stop for any further clean-up in what Putin sees as his backyard... heh-he, in the case of that country China does not see it that way, and Putin's Russia is in dire need of friends, so no time to alienate 'the few'

[ArmChairCivvy]

Cash only forthcoming on delivery (CAD), details via yesterday's The Telegraph pages:
"Two Chinese state-owned banks will restrict financing for Russian commodity purchases in a sign that cracks may be emerging between Beijing and Moscow as the Kremlin faces harsh international sanctions.

Offshore units of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China have stopped issuing dollar-denominated letters of credit for Russian physical commodity exports, while Bank of China has also cut down on funding, Bloomberg reported."

India's efforts to set up Rupee clearing, though it can be used to go around sanctions, is also for "cash".

[SW1]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -long.html

[SKB]

The official Ukraine Twitter account:

[ArmChairCivvy]

CNN reports a sighting of TOS (but not use; tough they were used in Chechnya and Syria)

[Lord Jim]

Another article in the Telegraph stating how things are not always going to plan for the Russian Military, with units getting lost and/or running out of fuel. Poor co ordination between Russian units and the inability of the Russian Air Force to gain air superiority across mush of Ukraine. Losses in material and personnel also seem to be far greater then Russian Planners believed there would be but the actual numbers need to be taken with a bit if caution.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... gniter-rhr

[SW1]

Another article in the Telegraph stating how things are not always going to plan for the Russian Military, with units getting lost and/or running out of fuel. Poor co ordination between Russian units and the inability of the Russian Air Force to gain air superiority across mush of Ukraine. Losses in material and personnel also seem to be far greater then Russian Planners believed there would be but the actual numbers need to be taken with a bit if caution.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... gniter-rhr

I understand why this narrative is being pushed and as much as i want it to be true, I’m just not sure I believe it, it seems to be being overdone a bit. 48hr in to a major war against a geographical huge country they are already having street battles in the capital.

[dmereifield]

Another article in the Telegraph stating how things are not always going to plan for the Russian Military, with units getting lost and/or running out of fuel. Poor co ordination between Russian units and the inability of the Russian Air Force to gain air superiority across mush of Ukraine. Losses in material and personnel also seem to be far greater then Russian Planners believed there would be but the actual numbers need to be taken with a bit if caution.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... gniter-rhr

I understand why this narrative is being pushed and as much as i want it to be true, I’m just not sure I believe it, it seems to be being overdone a bit. 48hr in to a major war against a geographical huge country they are already having street battles in the capital.

They wouldn't be if it weren't for the bloody Belarusians. They should be sanctioned to the same extent as Russia

[ArmChairCivvy]

Agree about Belorussia, but there is active political resistance there - even alternative leaders, albeit in prison or exile - whereas in Russia time and care has been taken to cleanse 'away' anyone that could mobilise the masses, to be a point to rally around.

The war going badly is leading to more and more indiscriminate actions (gas pipelines, oil depots... the latter can be construed to be dual-use targets) and a second attempt to make Kyiv glow in the dark has taken place; the first time it was just the wind blowing away that stopped that from happening:
"Ukraine's State Emergency Service has clarified that the shelling on a radioactive waste disposal site in Kyiv did not lead to depressurization of the storage of radioactive substances.

The hit was on the fence and the building itself and the tanks remain intact.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022"

[ArmChairCivvy]

The war in Ukraine has been driven by Sergei Shoigu a bit like the Blizt by Herman Goering, by promises that look increasingly hollow. Why is this important? After all Putin has placed himself as the one who took the decision(s).

Of the close circle around Putin all will be 70 when Putin reaches that mile post (soon). Shoigu is the only younger 'member' and tried to elevate his position over the Silovniki, who as a fairly homogeneous group could be the king makers
... now the war will not only discredit Putin with he people (and the army; Shoigu was nominated from outside the forces). It will also discredit Shoigu - and that will start in Putin's eyes who would be seeing Sergei as dragging him down.

The Guardian made some obscure connection of the war and carbon fuels. Sure, the war chest has been created (includes the supposed buffer against sanctions that were sure to come) by digging the money from the ground. Conversely, Putin has named the diminishing demand in the medium term as the National Security Threat N:o 1
- so the man is in a hurry, to cement Russia's place as a regional hegemon... before the diminishing revenues to the state coffers (not enough from tax payers & industry) will pre-empt any such attempt
- hurry has been seen to throw all sense 'to the wind'. Japan invaded Pearl Harbour before the oil boycott made any such move impractical (forget about Munich; looks like those lessons have been learnt)


End result? A free-for-all power struggle. Even more dangerous than the war raging right now.

[SW1]

Quite the change in the German position that’s 100 bill not mil as quoted in the tweet.

[SW1]

After putin put Russian strategic forces on high alert this



Perhaps a negotiation technique

[WhiteWhale]

48hr in to a major war against a geographical huge country they are already having street battles in the capital.

Kiev is very Northward and accessible in Ukraine, it can be reached from Belarus in a couple of hours drive, much of it through open countryside. Or by a few hours on boat. The complete opposite of Allied forces trying to reach Berlin and having to fight through pretty much 90% of Germany to get there. The battles are also mostly sporadic messes rather than columns through the streets.

That's the issue with capital cities, they are *generally* quite easy to get to. Luckily, London is well protected by the M25 being a total mess.

Keep in mind that Russia and Belarus rushed Kiev thinking they would get an early victory, allowing huge Western areas of Ukraine free to move up resources, and time for Western nations to move weapons and equipment. The UK and US have already sent thousands of anti-tank and air missiles in, Germany has just released thousands of tonnes more, all will be coming through from the west, Kiev only needs to buy time for Russian generals to realise that Putin is a shitshow.

[SW1]

48hr in to a major war against a geographical huge country they are already having street battles in the capital.

Kiev is very Northward and accessible in Ukraine, it can be reached from Belarus in a couple of hours drive, much of it through open countryside. Or by a few hours on boat. The complete opposite of Allied forces trying to reach Berlin and having to fight through pretty much 90% of Germany to get there. The battles are also mostly sporadic messes rather than columns through the streets.

That's the issue with capital cities, they are *generally* quite easy to get to. Luckily, London is well protected by the M25 being a total mess.

Keep in mind that Russia and Belarus rushed Kiev thinking they would get an early victory, allowing huge Western areas of Ukraine free to move up resources, and time for Western nations to move weapons and equipment. The UK and US have already sent thousands of anti-tank and air missiles in, Germany has just released thousands of tonnes more, all will be coming through from the west, Kiev only needs to buy time for Russian generals to realise that Putin is a shitshow.

Yeah but I was more thinking of the time it took US forces to get to Baghdad in 2003 under arguably a similar pretext of a country onside with its invaders. Obviously the Ukrainian want nothing to do with Russia but I still think moving a couple of hundred miles in 48hrs to position isn’t slow. I just thought the Ukrainians would of seen that proximity as an area to concentrate force maybe they did but it seems from most tv reports of the fierce fighting has been south and east initially.

In the fullness of time I wonder how much US JStar info is being shared to help guide Ukrainian positioning and also how well the anti tank missiles and concealed forces are hampering Russian armour.

[dmereifield]

48hr in to a major war against a geographical huge country they are already having street battles in the capital.

Kiev is very Northward and accessible in Ukraine, it can be reached from Belarus in a couple of hours drive, much of it through open countryside. Or by a few hours on boat. The complete opposite of Allied forces trying to reach Berlin and having to fight through pretty much 90% of Germany to get there. The battles are also mostly sporadic messes rather than columns through the streets.

That's the issue with capital cities, they are *generally* quite easy to get to. Luckily, London is well protected by the M25 being a total mess.

Keep in mind that Russia and Belarus rushed Kiev thinking they would get an early victory, allowing huge Western areas of Ukraine free to move up resources, and time for Western nations to move weapons and equipment. The UK and US have already sent thousands of anti-tank and air missiles in, Germany has just released thousands of tonnes more, all will be coming through from the west, Kiev only needs to buy time for Russian generals to realise that Putin is a shitshow.

Let's not count those German chickens until they hatch, it took them 4 weeks to send those bloody helmets