The war in Ukraine

[ArmChairCivvy]

it took US forces to get to Baghdad in 2003

The thunder run into Kharkiv seems to have gone badly wrong; the destroyed column is incredibly long... so the Thunder Run turned into the older Road to Raate scene, though the destroyed vehicles are quite wide apart, so they may have attempted 'speed to objective', so no dismounted battle, just a turkey shoot from both sides
- has anyone seen a number of the Russians taken prisoner? I've only heard that it is 'quite a number'

[Phil Sayers]

Congratulations to Vladimir Putin who has managed in days to achieve what US Presidents have been unable to achieve despite decades of trying - getting Germany to actually meet the 2% target that all of NATO agreed on.

[SW1]

it took US forces to get to Baghdad in 2003

The thunder run into Kharkiv seems to have gone badly wrong; the destroyed column is incredibly long... so the Thunder Run turned into the older Road to Raate scene, though the destroyed vehicles are quite wide apart, so they may have attempted 'speed to objective', so no dismounted battle, just a turkey shoot from both sides
- has anyone seen a number of the Russians taken prisoner? I've only heard that it is 'quite a number'

It does there is clearly a lot going on. It think trying to get any accurate date on either sides losses, prisoners will be next to impossible I doubt either side actually know.

[TheLoneRanger]

2 aircraft shot down today(Russian speculated).

[Phil Sayers]

Now the EU have said they are going to send weapons themselves and Sweden have just announced they are sending 5,000(!) anti-tank weapons. I don't think Putin anticipated this even in his worst case assessments of how the West might react. He badly needs to win this in the next few days because enough weaponry is heading to Ukraine to send every last invader back in a body bag. I therefore anticipate that that the Russians will massively increase the amount of firepower they are using (which as bad as it is does not anywhere approach what they did to Chechnya and Syria) so civilian casualties are going to go through the roof

[TheLoneRanger]

[SW1]

These pledges are great and all would of helped more weeks ago, not sure how they get them to where there most needed now.

[ArmChairCivvy]

5000 AT4s; Ukraine had requested 2000 NLAWs, but clearly Sweden is thinking they might soon be needed.
- Denmark sending 2700 in the same category; make and model not in wide circulation

[TheLoneRanger]

Guessing these will all be delivered overland vi the Polish border. UK commited to help with logistics to move all these weapons to Ukraine.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Some time today the trigger will be pulled re: Russia's access to its foreign reserves. These are estimated to be 130 bn in gold, 70 bn in PRC bonds and 400 bn in G7 sovereign and blue chip bonds
- who knows where the gold is held (in Ft Knox )
- 70 in China can be liquidated by some means but perhaps not into$
- the 400 they will not get their hands on (though will continue to own them)

The bang will be heard on Monday as the fire power to intervene in support of the rouble will have evaporated... and it will drop like a stone! It has already - but you ain't seen nothing yet
- tantamount to doubling the price of bread in Paris, or the price of onions in India
- the result will be the same too; I am sure the riot police is busy getting their gear at the ready

[TheLoneRanger]

BREAKING: EU states to provide Ukraine with fighter jets



Wow Wow Wow !!!!!

Mig29's / Su-25's and Su-27 - wonder where they are in the EU .. not much else Ukraine can operate.

[wargame_insomniac]

BREAKING: EU states to provide Ukraine with fighter jets



Wow Wow Wow !!!!!

Mig29's / Su-25's and Su-27 - wonder where they are in the EU .. not much else Ukraine can operate.

A bit like the Swedish AT missiles, would have been more useful if sent earlier but the EU response has been better late than never. Hopefully this will keep the Ukranian air force in the fight for longer, although I don't know how well off they are for remaining usable airfields or even pilots.

[ArmChairCivvy]

BREAKING: EU states to provide Ukraine with fighter jets



Wow Wow Wow !!!!!

Mig29's / Su-25's and Su-27 - wonder where they are in the EU .. not much else Ukraine can operate.

A bit like the Swedish AT missiles, would have been more useful if sent earlier but the EU response has been better late than never. Hopefully this will keep the Ukranian air force in the fight for longer, although I don't know how well off they are for remaining usable airfields or even pilots.

Bulgaria had 15 Mig29s and was considering putting hem through the Polish modernisation treatment. They chose F-16 instead and one Mig has been lost in the interim.

As the F-16s will be delivered in two batches, Bulgaria bought 10 new engines, to keep the Migs flying in the interim.
https://sofiaglobe.com/2020/06/04/defen ... s-mig-29s/
My bet is that they will sell 4 or 5 'as is' with the EU funding (and Poland will chip in some missiles, reserved for their own fleet, for free).
- anyone know what's the remaining fleet that Ukraine can fly as of now? Some/all of those destroyed on the ground were in a non-operational condition

[ArmChairCivvy]

This
"The UN security council has called for an emergency special session of the general assembly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marking the first time in 40 years the council has made such a request."
did not get vetoed; I guess it is not a resolution

[dmereifield]

BREAKING: EU states to provide Ukraine with fighter jets



Wow Wow Wow !!!!!

Mig29's / Su-25's and Su-27 - wonder where they are in the EU .. not much else Ukraine can operate.

A bit like the Swedish AT missiles, would have been more useful if sent earlier but the EU response has been better late than never. Hopefully this will keep the Ukranian air force in the fight for longer, although I don't know how well off they are for remaining usable airfields or even pilots.

Bulgaria had 15 Mig29s and was considering putting hem through the Polish modernisation treatment. They chose F-16 instead and one Mig has been lost in the interim.

As the F-16s will be delivered in two batches, Bulgaria bought 10 new engines, to keep the Migs flying in the interim.
https://sofiaglobe.com/2020/06/04/defen ... s-mig-29s/
My bet is that they will sell 4 or 5 'as is' with the EU funding (and Poland will chip in some missiles, reserved for their own fleet, for free).
- anyone know what's the remaining fleet that Ukraine can fly as of now? Some/all of those destroyed on the ground were in a non-operational condition

Excellent, well done those countries (Slovakia, Poland and Bulgaria?) and the EU (for (presumably) underwriting the cost, partly at least). Apparently they'll (some, at least) be in Ukrainian Skies within hours. So, presumably, Ukrainian pilots have gone over to pick them up and fly them back. Wonder if they'll have some targets en route to their new homes (wherever that is)

[SKB]

World's largest aeroplane destroyed in Ukraine

The world's largest cargo aircraft, the unique Ukranian Antonov-225 Mriya, has been destroyed during a Russian attack, according to Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs, Dmytro Kuleba.

Kuleba tweeted on Sunday: "Russia may have destroyed our 'Mriya'. But they will never be able to destroy our dream of a strong, free and democratic European state."

The Antonov 225 was originally built by the USSR to transport their Buran space shuttle.

The plane was based at the Antonov Airport – also known as Hostomel Airport

[sunstersun]

It's kinda crazy how Ukraine drones are still operating on day 4. If we get more footage on day 5 Turkey might just give up the S-400 due to reputation alone.

[Phil Sayers]

It looks like Belarus will directly join the war later today. Of concern is that they seem to be positioning their forces to conduct an offensive into the far west of Ukraine along the Polish border (through which arms are flooding in). I am not sure that Poland will allow Belarus to take control of the border – for the first time I think there is a real possibility of wider war.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Also, on social media (where you never quite know where the stuff comes from, and if verified in any way) there is talk about the fighters relying on Polish infra on the ground (as the bases within Ukraine have been hammered to a degree that them supporting more planes must be an unknown).

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Telegraph summarises at noon:
- note that all this without foreigners being allowed to try to sell and salvage even 'something' from their holdings

"Russia's central bank raised the main borrowing rate from 9.5pc to 20pc on Monday following a currency collapse that knocked nearly 30pc off the offshore rouble.

Officials also forced exporters to sell their foreign currency revenues and temporarily banned non-residents from selling some unspecified Russian securities.

[...]

In a further blow to Moscow, Western powers have also announced measures that will “prevent the Russian central bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions”.

The Central Bank of Russia has built up a war chest of about $640bn in foreign reserves, most of which is held overseas. In an extreme situation, it could lose control of most of this cash, leaving it with only gold and Chinese yuan."

[SW1]

Are they still buying Russian gas or has the taps been turned off?

[ArmChairCivvy]

The president of Switzerland has declared that they will join the sanctions as Geneva Treaties are blatantly being trampled on: among many others, Putin and Lavrov will have their accounts frozen.

Now, I am more interested to hear what Lichtenstein decides to do.

[ArmChairCivvy]

In some countries army surplus stores are now bare of any relevant (non-lethal) kit as individuals have organised donations to buy it and also to get it all the way to the Ukraine border.

TASS has also been hacked (anti-war msgs ) so surely Pravda will now print the truth - as it says so on 'the tin'.

[TheLoneRanger]

It is a real shame that Ukraine lacks the current resources to do a fighter jet low level sweep of the convoy that is heading towards the capital. Brimstone would had a field day for sure.

The anti-tank weapons are doing a fantastic job as are the Manpads. Russian Su-34s are having to fly at tree top level at what looks like supersonic speeds... as any higher, they will be engaged by sams and any slower - the manpads will have enough time to lock on to them and take them out.. what accuracy the Su-34s are getting at this level is of course - debateable.

I am hoping that the ukranian airforce gets a few batches of mig-29s to supplement what they have very very soon.

[RunningStrong]

In some countries army surplus stores are now bare of any relevant (non-lethal) kit as individuals have organised donations to buy it and also to get it all the way to the Ukraine border.

Nah, I suspect because it's the start of the European Airsoft season.