The war in Ukraine

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Lord Jim
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The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

This video shows the early part of the War in Ukraine during 2014 from the point of view of the 93rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Army made up of Army personnel and volunteers. It shows how they initially made progress against the Separatists in the Donbass, but when more and more "Russian" forces begun to arrive and take an active part in the conflict they were pushed further and further back. The second video continues the story. I found both pretty enlightening showing how the Ukrainians have and are fighting but that they have been at a severe disadvantage except for the first few months of the conflict.
Part 1:

Part 2:
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Nobody talks about this issue, but world may be at the verge of September 1939. Again.

Russian deployments are, crazy.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Any websites that do get an immediate incursion, a Grad-like strike of counteropinions from er, well-funded sources.

I find those vids extremely well made (one is still in the works).

What is going on in the other 'borderlands' aka 'the' Ukraine [insert translation, or the origins of the name here], but named Belo-Russ (I never understood where the 'white' i it came from) makes this thread timely.

Rather than trying to overturn the political order, Russia is backing the brutal, internal repression by all available means.
- is actually, in financial terms, much cheaper than propping up DonBass

But, it is the political terms of the outcome that will determine if the monies (and not only treasure, but blood too) were wasted
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by SW1 »

Maybe we should send sentinel for a look..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56616778

Russia has warned Nato against sending any troops to help Ukraine, amid reports of a large Russian military build-up on its borders.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would take "additional measures" if Nato were to make such a move.
Sporadic, low-level clashes continue in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists.
US forces in Europe are now on higher alert, citing "escalations of Russian aggression" in the area.
A Nato official told Reuters news agency that Russia was undermining efforts to reduce tensions in eastern Ukraine and Nato ambassadors had met on Thursday to discuss the situation.
"Allies share their concerns about Russia's recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine," the official said.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky joined the criticism, saying "military exercises and possible provocations along the border are traditional Russian games".

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Russian troop movements extend from the East (of Ukraine's borders) to the North
... deliberately designed to exert pressure on the'4 bdes in readiness' rotation that Ukraine has devised, to keep not just the insurgents but also their Russian re-enforcements in check?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If you believe the Ukrainian side, amongst the troops on its borders are 28 bns of 'quick action' - note: not 'reaction' - forces.
If you further ignore the fact that many of these are drawn from amongst Spetznaz and airborne/ -landed forces, the total number would come close to the number of army brigades. And normally there is only one bn in each ready 'to be drawn'.
- the total number of (other) troops is, on the other hand, inflated by the fact that Crimea is a garrison, or rather a bastion... a bit like Kaliningrad and the part of the Kuola Peninsula near Murmansk.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Minsk 1, Minsk 2... now Minsk itself will be under a focal lens at the forthcoming Geneva summit.

Counting away the borders to the North of St. Petersburg, Russia's borders in Europe seem to be quite hapless:
It borders the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (at Kaliningrad) in the west; in the southwest, it is bordered by Belarus and Ukraine; there is also a border with Poland (at Kaliningrad Oblast). Furthermore it borders Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan.
- only Belorus, of the above, really counts as a buffer zone anymore
- 'peacekeepers' in Georgia, Azerbaijan: to keep trouble away from the real border (Chechnya :shock: )
- and a cross-pull over Kazakhstan with China (K. has been equally reluctant to fully tie itself to Putin's Common Market of the East as has Belorus (the latter: so far)

So rife everywhere; just the focus of it seems to keep changing
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Russia did achieve Ukraine by-pass in oil/ gas transit, but will the latest developments (as per a Friday night Skynews report from Moscow)
"As the EU mulls a fifth round of sectoral sanctions which will hit the already devastated Belarusian economy particularly hard, Russia will be working out how best to benefit from the course that sets for Minsk, weighing up the cost of possible disruptions to gas transit west against the benefits of air and freight traffic east.

Alexander Lukashenko may still be in power, propped up for now by his own security apparatus and the implicit backing of President Putin, but rest assured Russia is making plans for his departure."
inadvertently (accidentally, but not :o without intention) lead to the turning on of Nordstream2
- an act that is hanging in balance by a thread
- and would be a major gain for Putin

What is going on next door to Ukraine, in Sochi, is preparing the ground, literally, for a repeat for a Shah-like exit (but the above things are worth playing for, in the interim). An exit for similar reasons, according to rumours. Unlike with the Shah not to be kept secret but offered as a rationale for slicing open a Gordion's knot.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Pseudo »

My worry is that an invasion of Ukraine might only be the first move. I've no doubt that western powers being distracted by Ukraine would look like a great opportunity to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially if North Korea were for the same reason to take the opportunity to make their way south.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Jonathan Beale
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Breaking DefSec Wallace says U.K. is providing a NEW security assistance package to #Ukraine - including light anti armour defensive weapons with trainers . Says short range weapons not long range strategic weapons

Jonathan Beale
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DefSec Wallace doesn’t say what short range weapons U.K. is supplying #Ukraine but says they are at a tactical infantry level purely for defensive purposes ( Labour’s John Healey suggests not Javelin) . First system were delivered today

Christopher Miller
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I’m told by a UK official that these are NLAWs — next generation light anti-tank weapons.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... nuary-2022

Thank you Mr Speaker, with your permission I wanted to update the House on the situation in Ukraine. As of today, tens of thousands of Russian troops are positioned close to the Ukrainian border.

Their deployment is not routine, and they are equipped with tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, rocket artillery, and short-range ballistic missiles.

We, and our Allies, have legitimate and real cause for concern that the configuration and scale of the force being assembled, supported by Russian air and maritime long-range strike capabilities stationed in the region, could be used for the purpose of conducting a multi-axis invasion of Ukraine.

But whatever final decision the Russian Government takes on the use of such forces, their presence and levels of readiness are contributing to a destabilising and coercive atmosphere that risks miscalculation at best and – at worst – conflict.

Furthermore, in recent weeks, we have observed hardening Russian rhetoric, heightened cyber activity and widespread disinformation that could serve to provide false pretext for a Russian military intervention.

False narratives are very much part of the Kremlin’s playbook. They were used in 2008, before Russia’s invasion of Georgia; and in Ukraine in 2014. False narratives are being peddled again today.

Within that same principle, I can today confirm to the House that, in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia, and in addition to our current support, the UK is providing a new security assistance package to increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.

We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light, anti-armour, defensive weapon systems. A small number of UK personnel will also provide early-stage training for a short period of time, within the framework of Operation ORBITAL, before then returning to the United Kingdom.

This security assistance package complements the training and capabilities that Ukraine already has, and those that are also being provided by the UK and other Allies in Europe and the United States. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders, and this new package of aid further enhances its ability to do so.

Let me be clear: this support is for short-range, and clearly defensive weapons capabilities; they are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia. They are to use in self-defence and the UK personnel providing the early-stage training will return to the United Kingdom after completing it.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

The airlift of NLAWs from Brize Norton to Ukraine continues unabated. Eight C17 flights so far carrying "thousands" (as per the Armed Forces Minister) of the anti-armour weapons. The probable cost to Russia of mounting an invasion is steadily increasing and the US has also just confirmed an addition $200 million of military assistance. Unfortunately, I think Putin has already decided on war.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Defiance »

Phil Sayers wrote: 19 Jan 2022, 17:57 The airlift of NLAWs from Brize Norton to Ukraine continues unabated. Eight C17 flights so far carrying "thousands" (as per the Armed Forces Minister) of the anti-armour weapons. The probable cost to Russia of mounting an invasion is steadily increasing and the US has also just confirmed an addition $200 million of military assistance. Unfortunately, I think Putin has already decided on war.
In an article on TheWarZone, it's been calculated that each pallet of NLAW works out at 18 launchers with 12 pallets per aircraft. At the time of publication that was 1080 NLAW from 5 C-17, but if the remaining 3 were also carrying them then that'd be 1728 rockets. I did hear stories about 100+ troops going over with them to provide training to the Ukrainians.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ed-kingdom

What's really going to bugger up Ukraine are those amphibs being relocated from the Baltic and the Russian buildup in Belarus. They don't even need to attack from the north or south, just appear like they could to draw Ukranian strength away from the east.

There's a C-17 flying south-east across central Poland right now, so there's another 216 NLAW if that's what it's carrying
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by SW1 »

And here’s the president telling putin to invade a little bit




We seems to have a complete load of buffoons in every western capital at the minute
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Defiance »

USN publicised the arrival of USS Georgia (SSGN-729) at Cyprus yesterday

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... n-presence

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by TheLoneRanger »

I am quite suprised that the UK has that many NLAW launchers in the first place !! I guess inventory levels would be classified etc.

These systems do make things far more problematic for Russia and increases the cost of this war for them. Combine this with the Turkish UCAVs that Ukraine has, and of course, what ever the Americans are providing - the opportunity window for Russia has become a little bit more narrow to get this done now.

This does show how long it takes to get into NATO and how that timeframe itself is a problem. If Sweden wants to join NATO ( and with these Russian actions - this may become more likey) - NATO and the west would have to move faster than they did with Ukraine.

Additionally this should be a wakeup call for the mainland European countries to wakeup and think of their defence more seriously otherwise the big bad bear will try and gobble them up... (we in the UK at least have a defensive wall called the English Channel :thumbup: - they don't )

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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https://www.reuters.com/world/spain-sen ... 022-01-20/

MADRID, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Spain has sent warships to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea as tension in the region rises over the Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border, Defence Minister Margarita Robles said on Thursday.

A mine-sweeper is already en route and a frigate will sail within three or four days, Robles told reporters. The Madrid government is also considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria, she said.

Denmark said it was sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea this week and French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to send troops to Romania. Further troop decisions could be made as early as a NATO summit in Madrid in June, diplomats and officials said.

Also

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Defiance »

Article from TheWarZone (2 days old) covering the transit of those 6 amphibious warfare ships transiting to the Med. There's quite a significant Russian naval buildup in the region including assets from the Northern and Pacific fleets

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ing-armada

From the Baltic fleet, the transiting ships are
  • 3 x Project 775 Ropucha class LST
These are being joined by 3 Northern Fleet vessels
  • 2 x Project 775 Ropucha class LST
  • 1 x Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship
According to a Russian press release, 3 ships currently undergoing exercises in the Gulf of Oman with Chinese and Iranian assets will join the amphibious ships in the Med, these vessels are
  • 1 x Slava class cruiser (Varyag - Pacific Fleet flagship)
  • 1 x Udaloy class destroyer (Admiral Tributs)
  • 1 x fleet oiler (Boris Butoma)
They'll also be joined by the Russian Navy intelligence gathering ship VVasiliy Tatishchev has also relocated to the Med, probably to keep an eye on the tri-lateral carrier exercises between the US, France and Italy.

These assets may not even be involved in any actual military operations in Ukraine, they may be a feint to draw away NATO forces and attention from the region. Moreover, the Ukrainian Army will have to hold more forces in reserve to respond to this increasing threat.

There's some interesting graphics in the article worth reading, particularly those covering the significant uptake in ISR missions being conducted in the region.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by TheLoneRanger »

The Russians have also moved 2 x S400 systems to Belarus. It does look like a 3 pronged invasion of Ukraine as a whole and not just another nibble. I guess we will find out how effective the S400 is, or is not.

Got to say - the west has really dropped the ball on Ukraine and it pretty much looks like it will dissappear off the map soon as an independent country ..

The UK has been on the right side of history on this one - less so the Germans with their lack of support and the French for once are silent on this one which itself speaks volumes...

German refusal to not allow its weapons to be transferred to Ukraine by various countries will need serious thought to see "what kind of ally the Germans are, or are not - by every measure that is not helpful of the Germans". Additionally the lack of use of German airspace for RAF planes has not been fully explained either.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Defiance »

TheLoneRanger wrote: 23 Jan 2022, 13:15 Additionally the lack of use of German airspace for RAF planes has not been fully explained either.
There's a few nuances to this ...

First of all, UKDJ published their opinion as fact early on (that Germany had denied airspace use) which was then retracted two days later, but the damage had been done. The narrative that Germany had denied use has got a fair amount of traction as the initial claim was republished and repeated.

There's been some wind data published initially which, according to aviators, would have favoured a northern route in the early days. I'm a bit less willing to accept that after day 3+ of flights, all following the same route.

I suspect the reality is a bit more boring. The UK could have requested permission from Germany, but that would probably have provoked a lot of internal discussions which would be a huge waste of time. Germany probably wouldn't have denied RAF access, but it might have taken them time to come to the conclusion. Alternatively we could just route around Germany, avoid the problem altogether and just get the weapons and trainers to Ukraine ASAP.

I get that Germany is meant to be more twitchy about using armed force with their record, but when an authoritarian dictatorship is threatening a democratic nation on their doorstep they need to get a grip.

Certainly pisses on the united EU defence concept that's for sure.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sea_eagle »

Since the Uk doesn't believe it needs a sizeable tank capability why don't we just gif our retired tanks which we don't plan to upgrade and gift
them to Ukraine.?

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by topman »

The public given reason was the uk didn't ask permission to fly through german airspace, so nothing was denied.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Good luck to US and UK to build a formidable front in Eastern Europe with hesitant continental Europeans and without Turkey.

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