The war in Ukraine

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Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

Ukraine is a huge country with a lot of places that need protecting. They have four IRIS-T systems on the way (including the one that is apparently imminent) with all to be delivered by the end of the year. They also have eight NASAMS on the way with two expected in the next month or so and the other six a longer term project going into next year or beyond.

Therefore in a month or so they should have one IRIS-T system and two NASAMS. I'd guess the first delivery is definitely for protecting Kyiv and the other two will either be one more for Kyiv and one for Odessa or else it will Kyiv x 1, Odessa x1 and Kharkiv x1.

However by the end of the year they should, if all goes to plan, have four IRIS-T and two NASAMS which does start to provide additional options beyond just static defence of cities. Would either system be well suited to battlefield use if situated a safe enough distance back from the front? If so, any thoughts on which would be more effective in direct support of troops on the ground? I'm guessing the main considerations there would be things like how durable they are, how quickly they can be ready to fire and how quickly they can change location.

It may well be that there is no intention of using either system in that way because both are fundamentally unsuited or due to the risk of an intact system being captured for study. Also, it may simply be that protecting occasionally targeted cities like Lviv take precedence over any battlefield utility that may be on offer. Even if so the deliveries should still indirectly assist there due to freeing up things like Buk SAMs from protecting cities and instead allowing them to operate in support of the army.

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Phil Sayers wrote: 10 Oct 2022, 20:29 Ukraine is a huge country with a lot of places that need protecting. They have four IRIS-T systems on the way (including the one that is apparently imminent) with all to be delivered by the end of the year. They also have eight NASAMS on the way with two expected in the next month or so and the other six a longer term project going into next year or beyond.

Therefore in a month or so they should have one IRIS-T system and two NASAMS. I'd guess the first delivery is definitely for protecting Kyiv and the other two will either be one more for Kyiv and one for Odessa or else it will Kyiv x 1, Odessa x1 and Kharkiv x1.

However by the end of the year they should, if all goes to plan, have four IRIS-T and two NASAMS which does start to provide additional options beyond just static defence of cities. Would either system be well suited to battlefield use if situated a safe enough distance back from the front? If so, any thoughts on which would be more effective in direct support of troops on the ground? I'm guessing the main considerations there would be things like how durable they are, how quickly they can be ready to fire and how quickly they can change location.

It may well be that there is no intention of using either system in that way because both are fundamentally unsuited or due to the risk of an intact system being captured for study. Also, it may simply be that protecting occasionally targeted cities like Lviv take precedence over any battlefield utility that may be on offer. Even if so the deliveries should still indirectly assist there due to freeing up things like Buk SAMs from protecting cities and instead allowing them to operate in support of the army.
NASAMS are made to be mobile, so they would def be used closer to the front line.

https://www.kongsberg.com/kmagazine/201 ... ce-future/
"Before, traditional air defence was all set up at one site, where you would find the command/control centre, weapon radar, search radar and missile battery. With NASAMS, we can spread these installations over an area of several kilometres and at great distances, and have a decentralised command organisation. This makes it extremely difficult for hostile forces to locate and neutralise a site, because there is in fact no site to find. Even if they manage to hit one or more parts of the system, the remaining parts will still be operational,” explains Mr. Hagen.
Mind you Western ground based air is a meh and needs rapid improvement.
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Enigmatically
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

RU missiles seem to be very in accurate, so it is doubtful they could provide much utility at attacking military targets. So with a few possible exceptions any AD would be better near cities

Zeno
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Zeno »

With regard to the accuracy of the various missiles so far used ,has there been data released on this ?

Little J
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Little J »

Enigmatically wrote: 11 Oct 2022, 20:07 RU missiles seem to be very in accurate, so it is doubtful they could provide much utility at attacking military targets. So with a few possible exceptions any AD would be better near cities
Scary thought... How do you know they are inaccurate? They could have hit exactly where they were aimed...
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Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

It seems interesting that many of the nations who have offered GBAD systems are offering those made by other nations which they are willing to pay for. Most of those offered can be used near the front line for area defence including IRIS-T, NASAMS, Crotale etc. We seem to be offering to pay for additional NASAMS rather than some of the few Land Ceptor systems in service which is a good thing in my book as we need to rebuild our GBAD as an urgent matter. Of note nobody has offered long range GBAD systems like Patriot which has an ABM capability.

Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

I am still at something of a loss as to why providing some of our Rapier batteries does not seem to be under consideration. We are replacing them anyway and it seems to me they could still be of use in point defence situations (exactly the current issue) and have some battlefield utility. Of course they are far from being cutting edge these days but I doubt Ukraine would turn their noses up at them.....

Jdam
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Re: The war in Ukraine

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tomuk
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by tomuk »

Isn't it just the case of what is available? The German IRIS-T systems are apparently from a batch ordered by Egypt which hadn't been delivered yet. With NASAMS aren't we donating some of our existing AMRAAM stocks or at least our place in the delivery queue of new missiles.

Little J
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Little J »

Who is integrating the western missiles onto the Russian Jets? :wtf:

Jdam
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Jdam »

Little J wrote: 13 Oct 2022, 18:02 Who is integrating the western missiles onto the Russian Jets? :wtf:
I think it is for the NASAMS system the yanks are sending them but like has been said we have got to have some Rapier batteries about somewhere that we can replace with Land Ceptre at some point.

A bit of a weird announcement as America would be able to supply them with AMRAAM's (of all types) a lot better than we could, consider we will not be getting Meteor on the F-35 until 2028 (I have my doubts about that date) you think we could supply better things than giving away some of our dwindling supplies of AMRAAM (C-5s?) missiles?

Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

I wonder how often our F-35s actually fly with AMRAAM installed these days?

Zeno
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Zeno »

For those with memories of the Ferret here is an article on its use in the Ukraine
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_te ... -4542.html
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NickC
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by NickC »

First video seen where one UAV attacks and destroys another UAV, back to the future, WW1, an alternative defence against UAVs besides guns and missiles or maybe future lasers and HPMs.



Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

Ukrainian MiG 29 jury-rigged to fire HARM takes out a radar at Belgorod airbase in Russia while being itself targeted by SAMs:



Not sure how the US will feel about this - may depend on whether the specific scenario has been discussed. On the one hand taking out a radar which is being used to direct anti-aircraft fire is not a big deal in and of itself. On the other hand it does start to chip away at the oft-repeated mantra that the US will not supply weapons which can be used to strike into Russia.

Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Saying Ukraine cannot use US supplied weapons to strike at targets in Russia is a farsical limitation. Even more so when such declarations are made publicly. It give Russia a "Safe Haven", from which it can carry out operations. Whilst trying to prohibit attacks in non-military targets has some rationale, attacking military targets in Russia is a must if Ukraine is to achieve its goals. Crimea for example is claimed to be part of Russia though the international community does not recognise it. Is the US saying that Crimea is off limits to Ukraine?

Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

Entirely agree that it is an artificial distinction - even supplying a rifle means a bullet could be fired into Russia. A better policy would be to supply ATACMS etc and then draw up two lists; one being tactical targets that Ukraine can strike at will such as artillery firing from Russia and the other being sensitive / strategic targets that they need individual US sign off to go after.

With regards Crimea I don't think there are any restrictions in place from comments made by US officials; it is just that Crimea is not (yet) in GMLRS range so the issue had not yet arisen.

Zeno
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Zeno »

Interesting that there are a number of media bloggers reporting from Ukraine on the preparations for attacks opsec seems to be missing yesterday in the Kherson front for instance Russia was able to inflict heavy repulsion of such an attack that had been heavily discussed

inch
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by inch »

Just thinking after seeing news and listening to Iran and Russia saying they have knowledge of the drones and upcoming surface to surface missiles from Iran ,and everyone knows they from Iran ,if that's the case why can't USA supply Ukraine with tacams missiles and when Russia complains the US should do same say nothing to do with us ,good for the goose good for the Gander,infarct any missiles Ukraine requires tbh

Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Looks like the chances of the existing sanction on Iran being removed are fading rapidly and worse could follow. On the other hand, the West is going to need to provide Ukraine with an integrated GBAD system as a counter, to protect high value infrastructure locations. Whether we see Ukraine being given the capability to retaliate in kind is unsure, though they could be given system able to dislocate Russian forces in the occupied territories more effectively as well as destroy supply points and logistics routes, making Russian operations in Ukraine much harder as well as taking away much of the Russian military's ability to manoeuvre effectively or use its artillery assets effectively. We will just have to wait and see how things develop.

Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

Details are still hazy but Ukraine mounted some kind of attack on Sevastopol naval base last night which may have included both UAVs and naval drones (not sure whether sub-surface or on the surface). This was at least partially successful in that the Russian MoD have confirmed that a minesweeper sustained damage. Ukrainian sources say they believe several warships were hit rather than just the one.
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SKB
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by SKB »

Russia blames "British Navy" for Nordstream pipelines damage!

(Sky News) 29th October 2022
:lol: :roll: :crazy:

SW1
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by SW1 »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63437212

Some more details

Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out a "massive" drone attack on the headquarters of its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol.
The attack began at 04:20 local time and involved nine aerial and seven marine drones, Russian officials said.

At least one warship is said to have been damaged in the strikes. Ukraine has not yet acknowledged the incident.
Mikhail Razvozhaev, the Russian-installed governor of the city, said Russia's navy had repelled the attack.

The strikes were the "most massive" since Russian troops first entered Ukraine in February, Russian state media quoted the governor as saying.
He said that all unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) had been shot down and no "civilian infrastructure" had been damaged.

Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

I'm not sure whether this is meant to be footage of last night's attacks but either way it does show that Ukraine is able to use naval drones to get in extremely close proximity to major Russian warships:


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