The war in Ukraine

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Your proposal chimes much like the inter-war Gdansk.

But as for Crimea, if the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the South is successful, Crimea can end up much like HK; without control over its main fresh water source.
Lord Jim wrote: 31 May 2022, 06:07 The fate of Crimea will depend on the state of Russia after thiols war ends, with the same for the Donbass.
I wonder what a new referendum might say as the inhabitants have already tasted the wonderful Russian world where all hospital capacity is reserved for their soldiers. The ravages of war have not directly touched Crimea yet and Zelenskyi is speaking about the excessive cost in lives were the counter-offensive extended that far.
- however, pawn for pawn: open up the Azov sea (small problem with the ports... all :( gone) in return for :idea: Crimea getting water supplies
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Tempest414
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Tempest414 »

If the US have a problem giving long range rocket artillery to Ukraine then they should give it to Poland so they can give Ukraine there 122mm Grad's
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The BBC has been looking at lists (partial!) available on Russian KIA and the findings https://english.nv.ua/nation/bbc-office ... 31589.html
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »



Everyone buckle up for a live demonstration of HIMARS and MLRS.

The God of War has returned to slay the bear.

Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Well it is about bloody time. Reports say it is more likely to be HIARS rather then the heavier M270. This is useful as more can be delivered quicker including new build, and they all come with the latest FCS and ability to fire the latest rockets. The life expectancy of Russian Artillerymen could become significantly shorter.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

GPS drone coordinates 80km snipes one shot one kill on artillery pieces. :clap:

Bye Russian artillerymen, it wasn't nice knowing you at all.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Lord Jim wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 02:38 Well it is about bloody time. Reports say it is more likely to be HIARS rather then the heavier M270. This is useful as more can be delivered quicker including new build, and they all come with the latest FCS and ability to fire the latest rockets. The life expectancy of Russian Artillerymen could become significantly shorter.
If Biden is sending HIMARS tomorrow, Boris is sending MLRS Thursday.

Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

Germany are apparently already on the case:



Significantly, they will also be sending the surface to air variant of the IRIS-T. That would mark a step change in capability and range.

dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

Phil Sayers wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 13:36 Germany are apparently already on the case:



Significantly, they will also be sending the surface to air variant of the IRIS-T. That would mark a step change in capability and range.
The German government has been pledging a lot but delivering little, late and in poor condition...so don't go holding your breath

Enigmatically
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

dmereifield wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 15:00
The German government has been pledging a lot but delivering little, late and in poor condition...so don't go holding your breath
Yep, I fully expect there to be delays whilst a consensus is reached, agreement is reached with Papua New Guinea who supply pigment for the paint on the wheels etc

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

The Germans haven't been that bad really. Just really bad PR and speaking. Factually, no one has given Western MBT's or IFV's, an no one sends stuff ahead of the USA.

The German army is broken completely, not Scholz fault, but Merkel.

He's under a huge amount of economic pressure over gas, also not his fault. He's also correct about Hamilton.

I appreciate Scholz over the CDU/Merkel any day of the week.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

sunstersun wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 16:21 no one sends stuff ahead of the USA.
I don't think that is absolutely true. The UK sent weapons in the pre-invasion period in Dec 21 and Jan 22 before the yanks I believe (the latter didn't deliver until 22nd Jan).
But I can't be absolutely true

And Germany has dragged their heels on a lot of kit that others have sent

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Enigmatically wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 16:28
sunstersun wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 16:21 no one sends stuff ahead of the USA.
I don't think that is absolutely true. The UK sent weapons in the pre-invasion period in Dec 21 and Jan 22 before the yanks I believe (the latter didn't deliver until 22nd Jan).
But I can't be absolutely true

And Germany has dragged their heels on a lot of kit that others have sent
Javelins were sent in 2018-2021. I fully admit the 2k NLAW may have been absolutely decisive. So kudos to UK and Boris for impeccable instincts.

I just feel like Germany is getting kicked through the mud on current decisions mostly for bad PR and obvious historical mistakes, when you look at the actual decision making now it's fine for the most part. Anyways, Ukraine's guy basically said something like no one will sent MLRS before America sends it.

Lord Jim
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

I didn't know the Bundeswehr has any land based IRIS-T in service. I though their systems went from Stinger MANPADS to Patriot to MEADS. Have they purchased IRIS-T very recently? I know such a system is being advertised, but Germany surely cannot have many of they. IF they doat what level are the deployed within the Bundeswehr? The Heer uses SP and hand held Stingers for local air defence so is it the Luftwaffe who have adopted it for airfield defence?

dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 16:21 The Germans haven't been that bad really. Just really bad PR and speaking. Factually, no one has given Western MBT's or IFV's, an no one sends stuff ahead of the USA.

The German army is broken completely, not Scholz fault, but Merkel.

He's under a huge amount of economic pressure over gas, also not his fault. He's also correct about Hamilton.

I appreciate Scholz over the CDU/Merkel any day of the week.
What? They've dragged their feet on sending anything, they initially only agreed to send helmets when the UK and others were sending munitions, they (actively or passively) hindered UK deliveries through German airspace. The helmets took 4 weeks to arrive....arriving after the invasion.
Then when they finally agreed to send munitions much of it turned up in poor condition, unusable according to Ukrainian officials. Then Scholz removed all of the heavy weapons from the lists of kit available through German industry when Ukraine was trying to source them. Earlier they prevented then delayed deliveries of German manufactured arms to Ukraine from third parties. The list goes on and on - hence Klitchko's comments about lack of German support during the battle for Kyiv and Zelensky's German support "maybe later" when addressing the EU.
Germany has been kicking and screaming all the way as they've been pressured into doing the bare minimum....just as the Ukrainians
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sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 19:41
sunstersun wrote: 01 Jun 2022, 16:21 The Germans haven't been that bad really. Just really bad PR and speaking. Factually, no one has given Western MBT's or IFV's, an no one sends stuff ahead of the USA.

The German army is broken completely, not Scholz fault, but Merkel.

He's under a huge amount of economic pressure over gas, also not his fault. He's also correct about Hamilton.

I appreciate Scholz over the CDU/Merkel any day of the week.
What? They've dragged their feet on sending anything, they initially only agreed to send helmets when the UK and others were sending munitions, they (actively or passively) hindered UK deliveries through German airspace. The helmets took 4 weeks to arrive....arriving after the invasion.
Then when they finally agreed to send munitions much of it turned up in poor condition, unusable according to Ukrainian officials. Then Scholz removed all of the heavy weapons from the lists of kit available through German industry when Ukraine was trying to source them. Earlier they prevented then delayed deliveries of German manufactured arms to Ukraine from third parties. The list goes on and on - hence Klitchko's comments about lack of German support during the battle for Kyiv and Zelensky's German support "maybe later" when addressing the EU.
Germany has been kicking and screaming all the way as they've been pressured into doing the bare minimum....just as the Ukrainians
I guess saying a positive word about the Germans would elicit this response, but yeah as I said, most is bad PR and previous decisions made before the war.

First off, yes we know Germany was bad politically before the war. So rehashing that into the argument is whatever. Scholz has done good work since the war started being only in office for like 3 months. UK takes 5% of their gas from Russia, while Germany had something like 55% thanks to the previous government. There's obviously a ton more pressure in that regards. Yes it's their fault, but I'm evaluating the Germans after their turning point. I'm a poker player, so I try to evaluate decisions independently as the cards they were given.

We can't both mock Germany for using broomsticks in NATO exercises and 4 planes working the last 5 years and then fail to understand when shit doesn't work well. It's not true for everything. The Panzerfaust 3 is pretty popular. The Matador is awesome. Best in the class. The PZH2000 is being sent in late June.

Yes, no one sent heavy weapons until America sent them. Just like UK didn't send MLRS until USA sent them. Germany was speaking the defacto truth when he said no one has sent Western MBT or IFV's. I don't see the Challenger 2, Bradley, Abrams in Ukraine do you? Once again terrible PR to say it out loud, but the decision to cancel those weapons on the list is a sound decision given that right now the strategy is let America decide what to send and then we'll copy later.

Maybe the UK could help Ukraine join the EU.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

People have issues with Germany because they have set themselves up as the leaders of Europe with the economy to match in many peoples eyes. What many people do not know is the terrible state the Bundeswehr is in as will be for at least the next decade.

As for Leopards and Marders, I think this has been brought up because Germany has many of these vehicles in Storage. When Germany has done wrong is preventing third parties send Ukraine equipment that was originally manufactured in Germany.

I also do not think the USA has had total control and dictated when heavy weapons would be sent to Ukraine. A number of countries has sent their older Soviet built equipment such a T-72s before the USA started to ship heavier weapons. Also we have had the Dutch state they were sending a number of PzHb2000 to Ukraine before the USA stated it was sending M777.

Whoever send whatever, the spee of deliveries needs to be sped up as does training of Ukrainian troop to operate them. NATO needs to set up dedicated training camps outside of Ukraine to which the latter can send troop to train on new equipment and them have these marry up with the actual kit donated in wester Ukraine creating formed units. Such a set up would allow Ukraine to receive and operate more advanced equipment as time goes by and really put the pressure on Russia politically as well. We could then see Ukrainian armoured units operating M1s at a later date for example.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Lord Jim wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 00:01 People have issues with Germany because they have set themselves up as the leaders of Europe with the economy to match in many peoples eyes. What many people do not know is the terrible state the Bundeswehr is in as will be for at least the next decade.

As for Leopards and Marders, I think this has been brought up because Germany has many of these vehicles in Storage. When Germany has done wrong is preventing third parties send Ukraine equipment that was originally manufactured in Germany.

I also do not think the USA has had total control and dictated when heavy weapons would be sent to Ukraine. A number of countries has sent their older Soviet built equipment such a T-72s before the USA started to ship heavier weapons. Also we have had the Dutch state they were sending a number of PzHb2000 to Ukraine before the USA stated it was sending M777.

Whoever send whatever, the spee of deliveries needs to be sped up as does training of Ukrainian troop to operate them. NATO needs to set up dedicated training camps outside of Ukraine to which the latter can send troop to train on new equipment and them have these marry up with the actual kit donated in wester Ukraine creating formed units. Such a set up would allow Ukraine to receive and operate more advanced equipment as time goes by and really put the pressure on Russia politically as well. We could then see Ukrainian armoured units operating M1s at a later date for example.
Really? I swear everyone knows the state of the German army. We mock Germans for is their broomsticks, 4 functioning Typhoons, and like 9 helicopters.

Right, T-72's and BMP-1's. Not western MBT's or IFV's like Scholz stated. Germany doesn't have any Soviet stuff to give, but they've given Czechs and Greeks stuff to replace Soviet stuff sent. Once again, bad PR. But nothing wrong with the decisions.

Hmm somehow I very much doubt your Dutch claim. USA announces on April 13, M777 is going according to this source. Rutte announced it April 19th.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/us-to-a ... raine.html

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/04/2 ... 2000-spgs/

So, can we stop shitting on Germany for stuff they don't deserve?


edit:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/3 ... ach-russia
"Speaking on the side lines of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Kuleba said he had about 10 bilateral meetings with other leaders whose countries possess such systems, The Associated Press reported.

“The response I get is, ‘Have the Americans given it to you already?’” he said, alluding to US leadership. “So this is the burden of being a leader. Everyone is looking at you. So Washington has to keep the promise and provide us with multiple launch rocket systems as soon as possible. Others will follow.”
Why blast Germany for what UK and every other country is doing? Better to talk about kicking and screaming than actual facts or evidence.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? They've dragged their feet on pretty much everything I've stated (not to mention early feet dragging on SWIFT and other sanctions). Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

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dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand.
You talk as if Scholtz had no part in the decision-making. He has been part of Merkel's government since 2007 (Vice Chancellor since 2018). He has been fully involved in German policy towards Russia for many years.

As for German assistance for Ukraine, what have they actually contributed so far? Helmets and ATGW**, (mostly non-functional).

The P-2000s (7), M270s (4) and Gephards (15 - actually volunteered by a private company, not the German government) have not been delivered yet. It's not even clear whether they are training Ukrainian servicemen on how to use them.

As for tanks, the demand to send Western tanks is not great at the moment - former WP countries have supplied/ are in the process of supplying over 230 T72s. Ukraine also seems to have captured more Russian tanks than it has lost to date.

** Edit: Plus anti-tank mines reported on today
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

In fairness they did also, early on, supply Stingers in significant quantities along with a large number of Iglas (albeit many of the latter were faulty having been in storage for decades).
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Re: The war in Ukraine

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Caribbean wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:48
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand.
You talk as if Scholtz had no part in the decision-making. He has been part of Merkel's government since 2007 (Vice Chancellor since 2018). He has been fully involved in German policy towards Russia for many years.

As for German assistance for Ukraine, what have they actually contributed so far? Helmets and ATGW**, (mostly non-functional).

The P-2000s (7), M270s (4) and Gephards (15 - actually volunteered by a private company, not the German government) have not been delivered yet. It's not even clear whether they are training Ukrainian servicemen on how to use them.

As for tanks, the demand to send Western tanks is not great at the moment - former WP countries have supplied/ are in the process of supplying over 230 T72s. Ukraine also seems to have captured more Russian tanks than it has lost to date.

** Edit: Plus anti-tank mines reported on today
Lol, so he's supposed to fix the German army gear in months after it's been broken for decades? Why are we surprised the German kit is broken or taking longer to make working? I mean I already said Germany was a dumbass, and made infinite political mistakes before the war. After the war, I judge Scholz/Germany to be fine. Everyone talking about delayed deliveries yet also criticizes the state of the Bundeswehr doesn't feel like it's a very good faith argument.

Shit's delayed coz it's broken and taking longer to fix to make battle ready.

Anyways, an actual list of what's sent.

https://archive.ph/YKy8M

900 of the Bundeswehr recoilless anti-tank handguns , Panzerfaust 3, plus 3000 rockets for the gun.
500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Both deliveries were approved by the federal government just a few days after the start of the war and delivered to the Ukraine within a few days.
2053 Strela-2 short-range surface-to-air missiles . The delivery of the weapons from GDR production, which were still in storage at the Bundeswehr, was decided at the beginning of March and delivered in the weeks that followed.
50 armored ambulances (Unimog)
80 armored SUVs
14 pallets of medical material and half a million so-called one-man packs (field supplies)
100 MG3 machine guns and accessories
450,000 pieces of 12.7 mm caliber machine gun ammunition
1,000,000 pieces of 9 mm caliber ammunition
About 10,000,000 pieces of 7.62 mm caliber ammunition
Approximately 4,565,000 pieces of 5.56 mm caliber ammunition
15 M141 SMAW bunker fists , plus 50 missiles for the gun
1000 DM-12 PARM mines
18 MK-186 remote detonators
100,000 DM51 Frag Grenades
5000 explosive charges of the type SK DM12B1
300 DM904 explosive charges
1000 DM-12 PARM anti-tank mines
100,000 piece detonating cord kit
250,000 pieces of kindling
500 pieces bolt 7.62 mm for MG3
500 pieces replacement tube 7.62 mm for MG3
5100 RGW-90 anti-tank handguns . The Ukraine bought the modern anti-tank weapons, which the Bundeswehr uses under the name Matador, directly from the manufacturer. After the export license from the Federal Government, they were delivered to Ukraine in two tranches from the end of March.
1,600 KN57 DM22 anti-tank mines
3,000 KN55 DM31 anti-tank mines

Germany is also the top financial assistance country outside of the USA. Economic help to keep the lights running is just as important as military weapons.

To arrive.

These promised deliveries are pending
30 Gepard anti-aircraft gun tanks and around 60,000 pieces of ammunition. According to plans, the first of a total of 15 Gepard systems from German industry stocks are to arrive in the Ukraine in July. Another 15 are to follow in the course of the summer . The Ukrainian crew of the tanks is being trained in Germany at Bundeswehr firing ranges by the manufacturer's trainers.
4 Mars II multiple rocket launchers from Bundeswehr stocks, which are to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of June, according to government sources. The Bundeswehr has a total of 22 of the rocket launchers.

7 self-propelled howitzers 2000 . Delivery of the heavy artillery gun mounted on a tank chassis is expected to begin in July. Delivery was decided at the beginning of May. At that time, the Netherlands had asked Berlin whether they could send five German-made howitzers to the Ukraine. The federal government then decided to put together a larger package and deliver seven systems. Ukrainian soldiers are currently being trained on howitzers in Germany, but this is taking a little longer than initially hoped due to the complexity of the technology.
Iris-T type anti -aircraft system . The delivery was only decided a few days ago, Scholz announced it on Wednesday in the Bundestag. The air defense system from the German manufacturer Diehl Defense had already been requested by the Ukraine in Berlin in early May, but a corresponding application for export was only approved a few days ago. According to the manufacturer, the system offers protection against attacks by aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles. However, delivery to the Ukraine will take several months and will probably not take place until late autumn or winter.
Cobra type radars . Not much is known about the details of the delivery so far. Presumably, however, it is also a question of a direct purchase by Ukraine from the German armaments industry. According to the Bundeswehr, Cobra is the world's most powerful artillery detection radar. The main task of the system is the precise localization of enemy artillery, rockets and mortars.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... d_mlrs_in/

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