North Korea

News and discussion threads on defence in other parts of the world.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

"As world leaders head to the United Nations headquarters in New York for the annual General Assembly meeting this week, Haley’s comments " lay down "the law" in the same way that Boris meant to, before Mrs. May's speech to the EU... which will be two days before the German election
- I wonder what kind of "u scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours" formula the two ladies can cook up?
- Mrs. Merkel is winning anyway (so was Mrs. May :oops: in the recent round) so Mrs. May is the one who has everything at stake

Back to N. Korea, any measures that the UN could add that would make a difference are
- inspection of ships at sea, or port, by any member nation
- cutting off energy supplies (China; they did already stop buying N. Korea's coal)
- cutting off remittances (Russia; wide use of forced N. Korean labour... they would have to start sending more of their own people to the Gulags again)

... so not a lot
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

R686
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Re: North Korea

Post by R686 »

I think the Donald is backing himself into a corner, I think both sides need to tone down the rhetoric

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia ... ocid=ientp

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This
"the new executive order Trump signed Thursday enables the Treasury Department to ban any individual trading goods, services, or technology with North Korea from making transactions with the U.S. financial system.

It also sanctions any foreign bank that knowingly conducts or facilitates transactions tied to trade with North Korea.

"Foreign financial institutions are now on notice that, going forward, they can choose to do business with the United States or with North Korea, but not both," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters in New York after the announcement."

got even China to toe the line.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: North Korea

Post by SKB »

Image

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Interesting that when the crisis broke out (well, the latest one) the origin of the rocket engine design/ parts was pinpointed down to a single factory (though the timing of the transfer and whether it was for private gain or state facilitated could not be confirmed), now there seem to be more unknowns:
" it is highly unlikely that North Korea could design, develop, engine test and integrate the components into … intercontinental missile systems without external assistance,” the analysts noted in their report.

Resembles Soviet UR-100 rockets

The report goes on to say that “the design of the Hwasong-15 missile is similar in some respects to the Soviet UR-100 family and there is a clear resemblance between the Hwasong-15 first-stage engine and the Soviet RD-250 engine.”

However, based on the information available in open sources, Jane’s can’t say with certainty when the technology transfer took place. “The UR-100 family of missiles and the RD-250 engine have been in existence for decades,” said Neil Ashdown, deputy editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review."

This less definitive version has now been latched onto in Russian-backed, news collating on-line publications.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: North Korea

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North Korea 'halts missile and nuclear tests', says Kim Jong-un
(BBC News)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un says he has suspended all missile tests and will shut down a nuclear test site.

"From 21 April, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the country's state news agency said.

Mr Kim said further tests were unnecessary because Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities had been "verified".

The surprise announcement comes as North Korea prepares for historic talks with South Korea and the US.

Mr Kim is due to meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in next week for the first inter-Korean summit in over a decade, and US President Donald Trump by June.

Both countries have been pushing Pyongyang to denuclearise and they reacted positively to the latest development.

"This is very good news for North Korea and the World - big progress!" Mr Trump tweeted after the announcement.

R686
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Re: North Korea

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SKB wrote:North Korea 'halts missile and nuclear tests', says Kim Jong-un
(BBC News)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un says he has suspended all missile tests and will shut down a nuclear test site.

"From 21 April, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the country's state news agency said.

Mr Kim said further tests were unnecessary because Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities had been "verified".

The surprise announcement comes as North Korea prepares for historic talks with South Korea and the US.

Mr Kim is due to meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in next week for the first inter-Korean summit in over a decade, and US President Donald Trump by June.

Both countries have been pushing Pyongyang to denuclearise and they reacted positively to the latest development.

"This is very good news for North Korea and the World - big progress!" Mr Trump tweeted after the announcement.
What did they get in return?

And will they restart again next year for more concessions?

It's not like they can unlearn what they have achieved so far.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

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R686 wrote:What did they get in return?

And will they restart again next year for more concessions?
The Beep says "Kim Jong-un warns of change in direction"
that they may not become the quasi-planet Pluto, in orbit with the rest of the int'l community
but rather head back to the Kuiper zone

Beep:
"While the North has stopped missile and nuclear testing, there's been little indication that Pyongyang is working towards complete and verifiable denuclearisation as the US has called upon it to do.

The North has dismantled some testing facilities [i.e. the one that collapsed ;) ] but there are allegations it is continuing its weapons programme.

President Trump has said he expects a second summit to take place as early as February but there has been no confirmation yet. "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: North Korea

Post by Lord Jim »

The horse has basically already bolted with regards the North Korea and its nuclear weapons. Now it has them it is not going to give them up anytime soon. What is more important is to try to ensure that the leadership has a modicum of sanity. Lift some sanctions may go some way to help this and not doing so will push them further into a corner.

As a point of interest the North Koreans can hit Seoul with a nuclear 203mm Artillery shell which cannot be currently intercepted by current ABM systems. Has North Korea developed such a weapon system, well who knows.

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Pseudo
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Re: North Korea

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Lord Jim wrote:The horse has basically already bolted with regards the North Korea and its nuclear weapons. Now it has them it is not going to give them up anytime soon. What is more important is to try to ensure that the leadership has a modicum of sanity. Lift some sanctions may go some way to help this and not doing so will push them further into a corner.
That assumes that the benefits of lifting sanctions won't go directly in to funding further nuclear weapons development, making the regime no less unstable but more dangerous.

There isn't an easy answer to North Korea, but I think that rewarding the regime by lowering sanctions because they've developed a strategic nuclear weapons capability creates a perverse incentive.

My thinking is that the international community should only really consider lifting sanctions in the event of significant progress in relations beween North and South Korea and then only with the agreement of the South Korean government. The lifting of sanctions should be used as an incentive for the North to improve relations with the South, not for increasing the capability of its nuclear forces.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

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Pseudo wrote:That assumes that the benefits of lifting sanctions won't go directly in to funding further nuclear weapons development, making the regime no less unstable but more dangerous
Yes. So far the revenues that has kept the regime afloat have been from sending slave labour to Russia's Siberia (state takes an 80% cut of the wages)... this continues (Russia has no alternatives; taking in Chinese would mean ceding control in the long run)
and
coal exports to China... presumably these have stopped, as the US threatened to cut participating Chinese banks off dollars, altogether
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: North Korea

Post by Lord Jim »

Sanctions once a nations has nuclear weapons and can deploy them are totally ineffective. North Korea was able to continue its programmes under major UN sanctions. Now they have them, if we continue to push the regime into a corner they might decide to sell what they know or have on the shelf, through a third party, to someone who actually will use a device.

In addition we dropped sanctions against both India and Pakistan after a period of time when they developed their nuclear weapons, and in my eyes Pakistan is far more dangerous then North Korea.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

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Diametrically opposing stories from the US https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47082860
... but isn't that the case with the other party to the negotiation, too?

Intel has gone all quiet about the origins of the rocket motors for the 'big leap' in N. Korea's ICBM capability??
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: North Korea

Post by Lord Jim »

It doesn't take a super computer to work out where they most likely came from. Having a troublesome North Korea allows China to distract others as well as be seen as a moderating power in the region, masking its real intentions and goals and the methods being used to achieve them. Problem is Trump has corrupted the well known saying into " Talk loudly and carry a big Nerf bat".

R686
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Re: North Korea

Post by R686 »

What the hell is a Nerf bat?

Lord Jim
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Re: North Korea

Post by Lord Jim »

Imagine a baseball bat made out of soft foam.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Intel has gone all quiet about the origins of the rocket motors for the 'big leap' in N. Korea's ICBM capability??
Of course Trump entered the negotiations on the wrong premise... that the delivery capability was not there "yet" - because Putin had told him so.

After this meeting:
"what could follow the breakdown of nuclear talks on Thursday, Thae, who has testified before U.S. lawmakers, said the two countries likely walked away from the negotiating table not over sanctions but over the underemphasized "second uranium enrichment plant" Trump briefly mentioned at the press conference in Hanoi.

Thae said Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "tried very hard" to hide the plant's significance, as did North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho and diplomat Choi Sun Hee, who said economic sanctions were the main obstacle.

"Actually talks broke down because of that hidden uranium enrichment facility,"["]

and if you wonder who Thae is...
read https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 551437979/
which also is the source of the quote
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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xav
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Re: North Korea

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North Korea May Be Building New Ballistic Missile Submarine
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North Korea may be building a new submarine capable of deploying submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) South Korean newspaper "Chosun Ilbo" reported today.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... submarine/

Royal Navy Frigate HMS Montrose Identifies Evasion of North Korea Sanctions
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Royal Navy Type 23 frigate HMS Montrose conducting United Nations sanctions enforcement against North Korea has successfully tracked an illegal transfer at sea.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... sanctions/

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xav
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Re: North Korea

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North Korea Reveals New Ballistic Missile Submarine Based on Romeo-class
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North Korean state media KCNA released footage showing the communist leader inspecting a new submarine under construction at a shipyard. This new submarine appears to be based on the late 50ies Romeo-class, a Soviet design, and is likely able to deploy a limited number of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM).
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... meo-class/

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If these things come to pass,
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/04/21/n ... r-surgery/
we could see
A. a general rehearsal of what will happen in Russia when Putin leaves the scene
B. a sudden crisis (borderzone/ the islands/ at sea) to cover up the internal power struggle
C. a massive flow of people over the China border (will they allow it?) if there is no quick and decisive outcome as to which faction grabs the throne
... or all of the three
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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xav
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Re: North Korea

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Unusual Submarine Likely To Increase Threat From North Korea
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The World’s only operational conventionally powered ballistic missile submarine (SSB) may soon emerge in North Korea. The Romeo-Mod submarine, also known as Sinpo-C, was first revealed on North Korean TV on July 23 2019. It will likely be armed with three Pukguksong-3 missiles which are the hermit kingdom’s best performing. So it will, on paper, pose a serious threat to U.S. and allied targets in the region. But how real is the threat?
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... rth-korea/

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

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xav wrote:The World’s only operational conventionally powered ballistic missile submarine (SSB) may soon emerge in North Korea.
I think that is correct as the Israeli ones are rumoured to use cruise missiles instead.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: North Korea

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Not even a squid can squeeze through (into N. Korea)
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/20/asia ... index.html
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: North Korea

Post by Lord Jim »

Just found this, this year Parade by the North Korean military, but held at night! I know some do not like the sound track, but for those who used to play C&C it does sort of seem fitting. I always struggle to identify what is actually a real weapon system and what might be a mock up for the parade, some things do seem to wobble a lot. I did like the fly past though, the illuminated underside of the Mig-29s and the flares off what I believe are K-9 Trainers we quite impressive.

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